Here & Now

Here & Now for November 6, 2020

Announcer:

A PBS Wisconsin original production. The following program is part of our “Here & Now” 2020 election coverage.

Frederica Freyberg:

Election Day turned into election week after voters cast their ballot, then waited for the count. Wisconsin chose former Vice President Joe Biden by a 20,000 vote margin. Within hours after the ballots were tallied, President Donald Trump said he would request a recount. Down ballot, seats flipped at the state Capitol. Republicans maintained majorities, but majorities not large enough to overturn the governor’s veto. A state divided by politics remains a state divided by the pandemic. Positive COVID cases continue to skyrocket in the absence of a statewide plan to fight the virus.

I’m Frederica Freyberg. Tonight on “Here & Now,” making sense of what happens next on the presidency. A top UW elections expert is here. Senior Political Reporter Zac Schultz pinpoints the results of the state races. And McCoshen and Ross look at the political divide that will persist long after the next president is sworn in. It’s “Here & Now” for November 6.

Announcer:

Funding is provided by the Focus Fund for Journalism and Friends of PBS Wisconsin.

Frederica Freyberg:

Joe Biden was expected to address the nation tonight at about this hour, but reportedly pulled back from that awaiting a call on the election. A little more than 24 hours ago Donald Trump spoke saying as the ballots count started going in his challenger’s direction with absentees tallied last, he was being illegally robbed of his victory.

Donald Trump:

Good evening. I’d like to provide the American people with an update on our efforts to protect the integrity of our very important 2020 election. If you count the legal votes, I easily win. If you count the illegal votes, they can try to steal the election from us. If you count the votes that came in late, we’re looking at them very strongly. But a lot of votes came in late.

Frederica Freyberg:

Wisconsin is in President Trump’s sights as part of what he believes is the fraud cabal against him. This state helped put Joe Biden into the lead, as did mail-in absentee ballots across the state counted after in-person votes. We turn to elections expert Barry Burden, Professor of Political Science at UW-Madison. He’s also the director of The Elections Research Center which conducts the Battleground Poll. Thanks for being here.

Barry Burden:

Glad to be with you.

Frederica Freyberg:

First, I wanted to ask what your reaction is to President Trump’s claims he outlined Thursday night.

Barry Burden:

I don’t think there’s a lot of truth in them. He referred to legal and illegal votes. To my knowledge, there are no illegal votes being cast. Right now essentially all of the votes that are being counted, especially in Pennsylvania which is getting so much scrutiny, those are ballots that were cast before Election Day, in some cases weeks before Election Day or on Election Day itself. So there’s really nothing late or questionable about them. It’s simply taking the state a while to work through what is a pretty big pile of mail ballots.

Frederica Freyberg:

Part of the Trump campaign’s fight against these results is lawsuits in battleground states and a call for a recount, for example, in Wisconsin, where he also cites irregularities, which our Elections Commission we should point out, say did not occur. What do we know about whether recounts in Wisconsin flip results?

Barry Burden:

Well, luckily I suppose we have a little bit of a record here of doing statewide recounts. After the 2016 presidential election, there was a full recount of the state. Most of that was done by hand. It was a painstaking process. That was the result of a request from Jill Stein, who was the Green Party candidate in that contest. It changed a few hundred votes in the difference between Clinton and Trump after two to three weeks of counting ballots. It did turn up more ballots that were countable for both campaigns. Ballots that had initially been rejected often because machines had trouble reading them. So it added to both candidates totals but it didn’t change the balance between them. Very similar pattern if you go back a little further to the 2011 Supreme Court race. That also turned into a statewide recount and had very little effect on the overall balance.

Frederica Freyberg:

So would it be possible as the president said was perpetrated on the part of Democrats to effect widespread fraud across states?

Barry Burden:

I don’t think it would be possible even to effect wide spread fraud within a state. It would be more challenging, I would say impossible to do that in a systemic way around the country given all of the different election systems, the election rules, the amount of transparency in this process, all of what’s happening both before Election Day, on Election Day and now in states where there’s tabulation going on is visible, either in person or on camera. So I don’t see how that sort of thing could happen.

Frederica Freyberg:

Would the U.S. Supreme Court step in to resolve lawsuits and with its conservative majority support the President?

Barry Burden:

It might. I think the most promising path there to the Supreme Court is in Pennsylvania, where there was a state Supreme Court decision that extended the deadline for return of absentee ballots by three days. Those ballots needed to be mailed by Election Day and then if they arrive later can be counted according to the State Supreme Court. The state is currently segregating those ballots so they can be handled separately in case there’s more court action. Republicans are trying to elevate that now to the U.S. Supreme Court which already had one look at the case but that was before Amy Coney Barrett had joined the court before the ballots had actually come in. And now Republicans are asking that the court take it up again. So there’s a possibility of I guess another examination of that case and something to happen in Pennsylvania.

Frederica Freyberg:

The President included pollsters in the conspiracy to steal the election, saying survey results showing Biden way ahead mounted to what he called suppression polls. What’s your reaction to that, with your own Battleground State Poll that showed Biden up nine?

Barry Burden:

It doesn’t make a lot of sense. Both the Democrat and Republican campaigns were using the problems with the polls in 2016 to motivate their supporters. Democrats were telling their backers that they should not get comfortable with the lead that Biden was showing in the polls, to remember what had happened in 2016 and to make sure they showed up and I think they took that seriously. For the Republicans there was a similar message that you should not trust the polls, that there’s a hidden group of Trump voters who are being included there, not being represented. So both sides were, I think, remembering and leveraging the failures of the polls four years ago to try to turn out supporters. You know, Trump’s trailing in the polls also happened in 2016 and he managed to win these states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. This year he appears to be losing all three states even though the polls show a similar pattern. So it’s hard to see why it would work differently in one year than another.

Frederica Freyberg:

Just real briefly about polls, any ideas yet why they were off to the extent that they were?

Barry Burden:

It’s still quite a mystery. They were off in some states like Wisconsin, but not off in others, like our neighbor, Minnesota, where the polls showed Trump behind by seven or eight points and that looks to be about where the vote is ending up. So it’s not a consistent pattern but is repeating some of the problems we saw four years ago.

Frederica Freyberg:

So I want to ask this with only about a minute left. Could this come to the point where Republican legislatures like our own subvert the electors?

Barry Burden:

I think not. There have been a few voices on the fringes calling for that kind of activity. There’s been a call to do that in Pennsylvania. I think the process is unfolding in a pretty orderly fashion there. And, importantly, Republican leaders in the state legislature in Pennsylvania have said that’s not an appropriate action for them. The legislature has no role in the process at this point. I think that’s the right attitude and seems to be holding up among legislative leaders.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right. We leave it there. Barry Burden, thanks very much for your expertise.

Barry Burden:

Thanks.

Frederica Freyberg:

As to alleged fraud, Republican Speaker Robin Vos is now directing the Assembly campaigns and elections committee to investigate how elections were administered in Wisconsin saying, “With concerns surfacing about mail-in ballot dumps and voter fraud, Wisconsin citizens deserve to know their vote counted. There must be absolute certainty that the impending recount finds any and all irregularities.” The Wisconsin Elections Commission reports no irregularities. Meanwhile people on both sides are already in the streets over the election results as they come in, including around the state Capitol today where pro-Trump and Black Lives Matter demonstrators debated the election results and claims of voter fraud. Political divide as evidenced at the polls and now in the streets. Tonight, reaction from both sides from our political panelists, Republican Bill McCoshen and Democrat Scot Ross. Thanks for being here.

Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross:

Thanks for having us.

Frederica Freyberg:

We see how some folks are reacting to what’s going on. How are you both feeling tonight? First to you, Scot.

Scot Ross:

I feel terrific. The votes are almost counted. The voters have spoken and Joe Biden is the undeclared next president of the United States. I mean he’s got four million more votes than Donald Trump. He’s going to hit about 306 electoral votes when this is all done. He’s up in four of the six states. So I feel terrific about it. I feel great for democracy. I think the way Donald Trump has behaved in the last 72 hours is a good indication why the people of the United States of America made the right decision on Election Day.

Bill McCoshen:

Bill, what about you? How are you doing?

Frederica Freyberg:

Well, listen, I feel pretty good. The people have had an opportunity to speak. More than 150 million people nationwide, 3.3 million people here in the state of Wisconsin, went out and voted, a record number. I think that’s great. I think it speaks well of democracy. They split their ticket in many ways. Joe Biden, at this point, has a lead in the state of Wisconsin, but Republicans picked up two seats in the state Senate and only lost two seats in the state Assembly. So they have healthy majorities in both houses of the Legislature going into 2021.

Frederica Freyberg:

Astounding turnout across the country. But let’s talk fraud. Bill, do you think the Trump campaign should pursue this in the courts all the way up?

Bill McCoshen:

So there’s three steps to this. I would agree with part of what Professor Burden said. The first step is the election itself and we have counting. It’s still astonishing to me that big states like Florida, Ohio, California can count their votes on election night, but smaller states like Arizona, North Carolina, even Georgia can’t. I mean it doesn’t seem to make sense. It doesn’t — it’s irrational to me that that can’t happen. So it remains to be seen how the final count will turn out. Clearly Joe Biden has the advantage at this point in time. But once the election count is done, then you have the canvass. Wisconsin’s already done with that. It hasn’t been certified yet but there’s a canvass. And then finally, a recount. There’s at least two states where there will be a recount, here in Wisconsin and Georgia. So we’ll see how it turns out.

Frederica Freyberg:

Scot, what’s your reaction to Speaker Vos launching an investigation of Wisconsin elections?

Scot Ross:

The only fraud in our elections are partisan politicians like Robin Vos trying to rig the system for political gain. There is absolutely no indication of fraud in this election. The people went out and voted, and they voted like Bill said, like they’ve never done before. I would just point out that this election, we should have already declared Joe Biden the winner. If Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan’s Republican legislatures allowed votes to be counted, you know, before Election Day, the ones that came in the mail-in, this would have already been over. The fact is this is a mess caused by the Republicans and now they’re trying to change the rules. Robin Vos should be ashamed of himself for what he’s doing. I would just say this having been in court against Robin Vos and the Republicans, under oath, they could not produce one incidence of voter fraud that voter ID would thwart when they were under oath. So there’s no fraud in the state of Wisconsin. Like Governor Scott Walker said, it’s a high hurdle to be able to overcome those 20,000 votes. Republicans need to throw in the towel and accept Joe Biden as the next president.

Frederica Freyberg:

After all of this, and I want to address it to both of you, I’ll probably switch over to Bill, will all of this that we’re going through kind of upend the standing democratic process in this country?

Bill McCoshen:

Well, I think what’s lacking right now is transparency. In the states that are still in doubt, you need to have a fair and transparent process to review those ballots. That’s important. Okay? If that were going on, you want to have people to have confidence in the election. 70 million people voted for Donald Trump. Third highest in U.S. history. So there wasn’t a reputation of Donald Trump. So you want to make sure those folks can be confident that if he lost, he lost fairly.

Frederica Freyberg:

Scot?

Scot Ross:

We had a record number of people turn out in the cities of America, black and brown voters. And it just seems every time that black and brown voters go to the polls to try to save America, Republicans claim there’s fraud. And I think it’s ridiculous. And I think this is a real problem. When people don’t have the right to vote without being accused of being fraudulent, there’s a real problem in the democratic process and I think the Republicans have contributed to that.

Frederica Freyberg:

I want to stay with you, Scot. Does all of this that’s happening now heighten the divide then? I mean is it just going to get worse?

Scot Ross:

I think absolutely. I mean, Joe Biden’s always been somebody who tries to bring people together. He’s done that throughout his career. Unfortunately you’ve got guys like Ron Johnson, you’re got guys like Glenn Grothman, you’ve got guys like Robin Vos, Republicans who are just throwing their hands up and saying, no, there’s not democracy. It’s our way or the highway. That’s not the way you bring people together. Elections are about dividing people. Breaking off your pieces to get 50% plus one. Governance is about bringing people together. Republicans broke the mold on bringing people together under Donald Trump.

Frederica Freyberg:

Bill, what about whether or not this heightens the divide?

Bill McCoshen:

Yeah, I don’t think voters mind divided government. We have it here in Wisconsin. It looks like we’re going to have it in DC if the current trends hold. If Joe Biden is the president-elect and Republicans hold their majority in the United States Senate, which appears likely. They’ve certainly picked up a number of seats in the House which wasn’t expected. Then three things won’t happen. There won’t be a tax increase. There won’t be a green new deal. And there won’t be court packing. And I think that’s a good thing.

Frederica Freyberg:

I want to ask this of you Scot. Bill mentioned it a moment ago but how disappointed are Democrats who were looking for this majorly robust repudiation of the President?

Scot Ross:

I think it’s just a good indication that the country is quite divided when it comes to ideology. I think personally it’s sad that that many people wanted to go vote for a guy who’s done the things Donald Trump has done to this country. Again, in the midst of this pandemic saying that it was no big deal. You know, Joe Biden is going to be the next president. Kamala Harris is going to be the next vice president. It’s going to come down to two Senate elections in a divided — in a 50/50 state of Georgia as to whether or not Dems control all three branches — or all three parts of government, being Congress and the Presidency.

Frederica Freyberg:

I need to leave it there. I think I owed you an answer, Bill, but we leave it there. Thanks very much and thanks for all your work over the season.

Scot Ross:

Thank you.

Bill McCoshen:

Thanks for having us.

Frederica Freyberg:

Down ballot from the presidential race, Republicans and Democrats in the Legislature were able to flip some seats, but the end result is the same. Republicans will retain commanding majorities in the state Legislature heading into next year. But not large enough where they could override Governor Tony Evers’ veto power. Barring any recounts, Senate Republicans won two seats held by Democrats giving them a 21-12 majority. Assembly Democrats won two Republican seats in the Milwaukee suburbs, but Republicans control the chamber 61-38. Additionally, because Scott Fitzgerald won a seat in the U.S. House, the state Senate this week elected Senator Devin LeMahieu as its new majority leader. For more on what this means for next year, we sat down with “Here & Now” Senior Political Reporter Zac Schultz.

Hey Zac, thank you for doing this.

Zac Schultz:

My pleasure, Fred.

Frederica Freyberg:

So Governor Evers holds on to his mighty veto pen. In fact, Democrats ran on a slogan of “Save the Veto” to stave off a veto-proof supermajority. What are the implications of Evers maintaining his veto power?

Zac Schultz:

Well, that “Save the Veto” message was directed at one item only and that was redistricting. The biggest battle going forward is going to be how the next set of maps are drawn that divide up our Congressional districts, state Senate and Assembly seats. Ten years ago, Republicans had complete control over that process and they created maps that put them in power for the rest of the decade. And Democrats were afraid that was going to happen again if Governor Evers didn’t have the ability to veto those maps and hope for a different resolution and force some compromise.

Frederica Freyberg:

So what happens then when the Republicans fashion their own maps and the governor decides he doesn’t like that and he vetoes it? Then what?

Zac Schultz:

Well, if that is the way it plays out. There’s also a chance of compromise. Let’s not put that completely out of the question but in the most likely scenario Republicans draw their maps. The governor vetoes them. Then it will go to the courts most likely. Now in past decades that has been a federal judge who has been drawing those maps that everyone had to live under for ten years. In this case, Republicans would like to see that be the State Supreme Court because they think they have an advantage with the conservatives there. Either the conservatives there drawing the maps or perhaps favoring maps already drawn by Republicans in the Legislature.

Frederica Freyberg:

That adds up. What does it mean to have a new majority leader in the Senate?

Zac Schultz:

Well, they’ll have their work cut out for them. Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald had a reputation for really knowing how his caucus worked, where his members were. He’s got some extremely conservative members who have been in the Assembly and the state Senate for a long time, very strong individuals that aren’t going to be moved by party politics and pressure from anyone else. This new majority leader will have to step in and figure out how to negotiate an expanded roster. One of the things that they’ll have to deal with is some of those very same conservatives have been calling for the Legislature to come back in and strike down Governor Evers’ mask mandate and some of this other health emergency orders regarding how we’re responding to the COVID pandemic. Before the election, Republican leadership held off on that. They were afraid of what that might mean at the ballot box if they were seen striking down what were quite popular public official positions on mask mandates. That may change going forward and it could change as soon as next week if the Legislature comes in. The Senate could come in and strike it down and it would require the Assembly to do so as well. But those are some of the differences we may see right off the bat.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right. Meanwhile, even now the relationship between the Republican Legislature and the executive branch could be described as icy at the very best. There are big and serious issues before the state as we’ve discussed: COVID response and then the state budget. Is post-election time as we’ve discussed the time for the branches to come together and work on any COVID response?

Zac Schultz:

It could be. It depends on what happens at the Presidential and U.S. Senate level. If they decide at the national level to create another COVID relief package, then it’s likely the Legislature in Wisconsin will wait to see what that looks like and if it includes any relief for the states or the cities in Wisconsin as those first few packages in the spring did. If nothing happens at the federal level, then it may require the state to come back in. But that will be a waiting game. I wouldn’t anticipate them doing that right away, especially since we’re getting close to the next session and the next budget.

Frederica Freyberg:

Speaking of the budget, how tough is this budget year going to be given the state of the economy right now and the continuing effects of the pandemic?

Zac Schultz:

Well, it’s not going to be pretty at the moment. But a big question is how quickly does the economy in the state and nationally rebound if we ever get a hold on this COVID pandemic. Obviously right now we don’t have control over it at all. And that’s directly affecting sales tax revenue, income tax revenues, all those things that help fund state government. Going forward, this budget won’t go into effect until next July, but they’ll be negotiating in the spring. So how they see the COVID response then versus what it will look like for the following two years will determine how comfortable they are to put money into these programs and what kind of budget they actually pass.

Frederica Freyberg:

Yeah. Back to the election, the presidential election. Having reported on so many angles of it over these months, how does this one compare to all those you have covered over the years?

Zac Schultz:

I don’t think there’s any comparison to any election, presidential election we’ve had in Wisconsin. The Democrats in Wisconsin basically sat out in-person campaigning and holding rallies while Republicans went forward with all of that. So I guess you could say Republicans had a traditional election while Democrats did not. In past years, we’ve seen Barack Obama and John Kerry come to Madison or Milwaukee and hold these massive rallies if for nothing else than the images to send around the nation showing democratic enthusiasm and energy. That wasn’t possible for Joe Biden to do. The three times he came, they were all socially distanced. There were only a handful of people. There were no crowds. Just didn’t have the same look or effect. It was completely different election to try and cover what was happening on the ground when we had to worry about how to even interact with the candidates, how to interact with voters, how were voters responding. Completely different era regarding absentee ballots and how that worked out. We’ll probably never see anything quite like this when it comes to being in the pandemic or at least we hope so.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right. Zac, thank you for all the work you did do during this election. Talk to you later.

Zac Schultz:

Thanks, Fred.

Frederica Freyberg:

In our weekly live webcast, Noon Wednesday, “Here & Now” Reporter Marisa Wojcik asked Angela Lang from Black Leaders Organizing for Communities and UW- Green Bay Political Science Professor Aaron Weinschenk about voter intimidation and anticipated violence as the country completes counting the ballots.

Angela Lang:

In regards to anything now moving forward, I’m a little concerned. I think what I’ve realized this year in 2020 is that some of us black, brown and indigenous organizers, doing this work can be scary. It feels like you have a target on your back because we’ve seen these increased threats and militia folks trying to intimidate people, either at the polls or even just more broadly. I think it’s something that we need to keep an eye on and be incredibly careful and do whatever we can to make sure everyone stays safe.

Marisa Wojcik:

Aaron, are we out of the woods yet in terms of tension and division as more results come in?

Aaron Weinschenk:

It says something — it shows how ridiculous it is that we are even having to think about this, right? We’re an advanced democracy. We’re a place other countries aspire to be. We should not be talking about potential violence and militias and intimidation surround the polls. So the fact we’re relieved that that didn’t happen I think says something and it’s pretty horrible. I don’t think we’re quite out of the woods. Polls show that supporters of both Biden and Trump say they’re not going to accept the election results. Polls have shown that 40% of people on each side said they’re not going to accept a win by the other person. Something like 20% on each side said they’d consider taking to the streets and possibly getting destructive. So it could potentially be just a small number of people who are really dissatisfied. So I do have concerns about kind of post-election civility and what might happen.

Frederica Freyberg:

You can watch that entire “Noon Wednesday” interview by going to PBSwisconsin.org and clicking on news.

The Wisconsin Appeals Court today blocked the Evers administration’s 25% capacity limit on bars and restaurants. It was set to expire today but has been on and off in the midst of court challenges since it was imposed in early October.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin reported 6,100 COVID-19 positive cases Friday, putting the seven-day average over 5,000. Today 62 people were reported to have died of the virus since yesterday.

Find the latest on COVID as well as fast-breaking political news online throughout the week at PBSwisconsin.org and then again clicking on the news tab.

Also, for ongoing in-depth coverage on coronavirus in our state, visit our partner news site at WisContext.org.

That is all for tonight’s program. I’m Frederica Freyberg. Have a good weekend.

Announcer:

For more “Here & Now” 2020 election coverage, go to PBSwisconsin.org and click on news.

Funding for “Here & Now” is provided by the Focus Fund for Journalism and Friends of PBS Wisconsin.