Here & Now

Here & Now for Nov. 2, 2018

Announcer:
The following program is part of our “Here & Now” 2018 Wisconsin Vote election coverage.

Frederica Freyberg:
I’m Frederica Freyberg. Tonight on “Here & Now,” the latest Marquette Law School poll results. Zac Schultz reports on some hot state Senate races. We’ll check in with the Wisconsin Elections Commission with three days to go and Libertarian candidate for governor Phil Anderson is here. It’s “Here & Now for November 2.

Announcer:
Funding for “Here & Now” is provided, in part, by Friends of Wisconsin Public Television.

Frederica Freyberg:
What to make of numbers in the final statewide poll before next Tuesday, election day. Director of the Marquette University Law School Poll, Charles Franklin, is here to sort it out. Thanks very much for being here.

Charles Franklin:
Good to be here.

Frederica Freyberg:
So let’s do a quick run through the numbers. The race for governor is a tie. For U.S. Senate Tammy Baldwin is up over Leah Vukmir by 11. The race for state attorney general has Brad Schimel up by two, obviously within that margin of error. But now Tony Evers is up seven points with Independents in your poll. How big of a deal is that?

Charles Franklin:
Independents are holding the balance of power in this election really. We’re seeing that partisans are up well into the 90% range supporting their own party. There’s a little bit of crossover but it’s tiny. And so the balance then lies with Independents. And we’ve seen them favor Evers by 20 points back in September when we had a five-point Evers lead. Then they dropped to seven early this month. And Walker had a one-point lead. And now they’re still favoring Evers by seven, and it’s a dead heat, 47-47 tie.

Frederica Freyberg:
Independents also favor Tammy Baldwin.

Charles Franklin:
By even more, by 22. That’s why Baldwin — one of the reasons why Baldwin’s lead over Vukmir is so much larger compared to the tie in the governor’s race. It’s not only Independents, but it’s substantially from them.

Frederica Freyberg:
As for voting groups as you call them, Evers has strongest support from white, female, college graduates and people of color while Walker does best with white, male, noncollege voters. What are the implications of this?

Charles Franklin:
This is the divide that we’ve been seeing growing that combines the gender gap, which has been with us for a while, with this newly-emerging education gap between the college graduates and the noncollege graduates. And you see it most clearly among whites, is the reason we split it out there. But when you reinforce noncollege with men, or college and women, you get this very large gap with both groups splitting heavily but in opposite directions. It then actually leads, in addition to Independents, the balance of power, again, with noncollege women and college men. And right now the men are on balance going for Walker. The women, regardless of education, for Evers. But that could shift. That’s one of the things that we’ll be watching for on election night.

Frederica Freyberg:
How does Trump play into that?

Charles Franklin:
Trump plays in by really reinforcing partisanship right now. In September, Republicans gave him here in the state an 81% approval rating. Pretty good, but a little low compared to what it had been. Today or this week, it’s 92% approval among Republicans. So his rally, his campaigning more generally seems to really be cementing his hold on Republicans. But Independents are 41 approve, 55 disapprove, a net minus 14 for Trump. So the strategy that’s working for his base voters is not seemingly improving his standing with Independents.

Frederica Freyberg:
In terms of voter enthusiasm, overall 70% of voters are very enthusiastic to go out and cast a ballot. Dems have the edge on that. But you say “Evers’ percentage of vote goes up when turnout is lower.” How so?

Charles Franklin:
This is confusing to people because normally Democrats benefit from bigger turnouts. But it’s because of the enthusiasm and the turnout advantage that Dems are enjoying now and have enjoyed in special elections this year. So that if you raised overall turnout, what you’d actually be doing is bringing some marginal Republican voters, who are currently not quite likely to vote or very enthusiastic, you might boost them into the electorate and doing that would actually lower the Democratic advantage. But I should say across several different turnout scenarios from pretty low to pretty high, all of our results are inside the margin of error. These are very small differences, but it’s driven by that fact that Democrats are more enthusiastic this year.

Frederica Freyberg:
What’s the most important part of the state to watch?

Charles Franklin:
I actually think it’s probably the north west, the Wausau, Eau Claire, Minneapolis, St. Paul area. That’s an area that went heavily for Trump and which — a lot of those counties flipped from Obama to Trump. In the Supreme Court race this spring, we saw the liberal candidate do well in some of those areas. So was that a harbinger to this time? We are seeing Republicans doing less well there in the polling, but wait for election night. Polls have been wrong before. And so let’s just leave it in the hands of the voters now to settle this matter. But keep an eye out on Wausau.

Frederica Freyberg:
Okay. Charles Franklin, thanks very much for your work.

Charles Franklin:
Thank you.

Frederica Freyberg:
While the race for governor will have the biggest impact on the direction of state government, control of the state Senate is up for grabs as well. In tonight’s closer look, “Here & Now” reporter Zac Schultz shows us three districts that will help decide which party controls the Senate.

Jeff Smith:
So I have a few favorite spots.

Zac Schultz:
Democrat Jeff Smith spends a lot of time on the campaign trail in his truck.

Jeff Smith:
Here’s a nice little service road.

Zac Schultz:
But the truck also doubles as a billboard.

Jeff Smith:
My campaign style is slightly different than most people.

Zac Schultz:
Add a lawn chair and it quickly becomes a mobile campaign office.

Jeff Smith:
So I created this idea of stop and talk.

Zac Schultz:
Smith is running in the 31st Senate District, which includes a lot of small towns in western Wisconsin and most of the city of Eau Claire.

Jeff Smith:
We have a really good chance of winning the State Senate.

Zac Schultz:
The 31st is an open seat because the incumbent, Democrat Kathleen Vinehout ran in the primary for governor instead. Republicans control the Senate with an 18 to 15 majority, but Democrats think they can pick up two seats to take control. But that requires them to hold seats like the 31st.

Jeff Smith:
And this is a 50/50 seat. So I’ll take that anytime.

Zac Schultz:
But Smith knows this isn’t a surefire win.

Jeff Smith:
People feel like they’re being ignored in rural Wisconsin.

Zac Schultz:
Outside of Eau Claire, this is Trump country.

Jeff Smith:
Many times people have come by and said, “Well, you’ll be the only one I’ll vote for on your side of the aisle.”

Zac Schultz:
The Republican in this race is Mel Pittman, who ran for this seat and lost in 2014. Pittman did not respond to multiple requests for an interview.

Caleb Frostman:
My name’s Caleb Frostman. I’m the new state Senator.

Man at door:
I know who you are. Congratulations.

Zac Schultz:
Another seat the Democrats need to control is the 1st District, from stretches from Lake Winnebago to Door County.

Man at door:
Got our vote last time.

Caleb Frostman:
I appreciate that.

Zac Schultz:
Democrat Caleb Frostman is the incumbent, but just barely. The Republican who used to hold the seat joined the Walker administration last December and the governor wanted to leave the seat empty. He was sued and a judge ordered Walker to call a special election, which Frostman won in June.

Caleb Frostman:
We are taking nothing for granted. Even with the win back in June, we’re treating this as if we’re the underdogs, which I think we are.

Zac Schultz:
Frostman says winning the special election will help win the fall election.

Caleb Frostman:
We started the special election with very little name recognition and we were able to win that race which was great. Now this summer between different legislative events, I think we’ve gained some name recognition.

Zac Schultz:
This is another Trump district, but Frostman says voters are changing their minds.

Caleb Frostman:
I heard from people that have been moderate and made the switch or have been moderate and stayed home.

Man at door:
Hi there.

Andre Jacque:
Hello there, Andre Jacque, your state representative.

Zac Schultz:
The election is the 1st Senate District will be a rematch of the special election, with Republican State Representative Andre Jacque.

Andre Jacque:
It was soundbites over substance in terms of what actually occurred.

Zac Schultz:
Jacque says the low turnout special election has no bearing on the fall.

Andre Jacque:
I have that question from a lot of people at the doors. But this doesn’t really count for anything or the one that really counts is in November. I’m like, “Well, yeah.”

Zac Schultz:
Jacque has represented the 2nd Assembly District for the last eight years, often pushing conservative legislation that gets him in trouble with his own party leadership. Like a ban on the sale of fetal tissue that could jeopardize UW research. And a full repeal of the prevailing wage. But Jacque sees that as a selling point.

Andre Jacque:
You know, even if I’ve had some flare-ups with leadership, I think people see me as somebody who’s going to be more fundamentally honest in terms of not playing into some of the political games.

Zac Schultz:
Jacque says he’s giving up a safe Assembly seat to make a bigger difference in the Senate.

Andre Jacque:
In the smaller chamber, you’re going to have a smaller majority and a greater opportunity to have your voice heard.

Chris Kapsner:
Hi. I’m Chris Kapsner. I’m in the neighborhood introducing myself. I’m an ER doctor running for state Senate.

Zac Schultz:
The opportunity to make a difference is what inspired Democrat Chris Kapsner to run for the Senate.

Chris Kapsner:
I was in my own little bubble, and my complacency washed away after November 2016. So I decided, okay, either step up or be quiet.

Zac Schultz:
Kapsner is running for the open seat in the 23rd Senate District, which is northeast of Eau Claire. It’s a conservative district, but Kapsner is a doctor, not a politician, and he thinks that makes a difference.

Chris Kapsner:
Don’t judge me on the letter behind my name, except for M.D. I’m good with those initials.
Hey, can I count on your support?

Man at door:
Yep.

Chris Kapsner:
Thank you so much. Remember my name. It’s Kapsner.

Zac Schultz:
Democrats across the state were energized when they won two Senate seats in special elections in the last year. But Kapsner isn’t sure whether that enthusiasm will translate to his race.

Chris Kapsner:
I’m cautiously optimistic. We might have the wind at our back. It’s still an uphill battle.

Zac Schultz:
The Republican in this race is Kathy Bernier. She also did not respond to multiple requests for an interview. Nor did Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald. Ever race is local but one common issue is transportation and roads.

Caleb Frostman:
It’s one of the more bipartisan frustrations I’ve heard about, are the state of our roads in the 1st Senate District.

Zac Schultz:
Democrats across the state have been attacking Republicans for not increasing funding for road construction in the last eight years.

Jeff Smith:
Politicians are basically cowards when it comes to raising taxes.

Zac Schultz:
Most Democrats support some increase in the gas tax.

Caleb Frostman:
A lot of folks are onboard to just fix it, but there are very few folks that have the political courage to just fund it.

Chris Kapsner:
Right now what I see is we’re ignoring it. There’s always a cost. There’s a cost for repairing the roads. There’s a cost for not doing it.

Zac Schultz:
Republicans have been fighting internally about how to raise revenue for roads without increasing taxes. Andre Jacque isn’t even conceding the roads are in bad shape.

Andre Jacque:
You know, I think that there’s always opportunities to make improvements.

Zac Schultz:
Jacque would like to see some sales tax revenue diverted into the transportation fund, but follows Governor Walker’s stance of not raising the gas tax without cutting taxes elsewhere.

Andre Jacque:
I could accept the governor’s framework of if we are going to increase revenues for transportation, that we would find some way to make those choices elsewhere in the budget to make sure that people’s tax burden isn’t increased.

Zac Schultz:
As much as they stick to the issues, these candidates know the top of the ticket and the national climate will impact their elections.

Caleb Frostman:
There is definitely some enthusiasm in the district that has come from the reaction to the national political scene.

Andre Jacque:
I don’t know what the Trump effect is.

Jeff Smith:
It’s kind of scary that it’s out of our hands.

Zac Schultz:
Jeff Smith was in the Assembly during the Obama wave and then lost in 2010, when a wave carried Andre Jacque into office.

Jeff Smith:
We really are at the mercy of what happens at the top of the ticket. I know that. I’ve been a victim of that. And I’ve been a benefactor of that.

Zac Schultz:
So all they can do is hope the top of the ticket helps and run their best race.

Chris Kapsner:
I don’t care if you’re Republican. I don’t care if you’re Democrat. My message is simple, strong, positive.

Andre Jacque:
I guess I don’t focus too much on other people’s races that are beyond my control.

Frederica Freyberg:
He’s a third-party candidate and he’s running for governor. In tonight’s inside look, we give Phil Anderson a say. Anderson is a Libertarian candidate for governor. He lives in Fitchburg and is a realtor. He’s from Wisconsin and graduated from UW-Madison. Phil Anderson joins us now. Thanks for being here.

Phil Anderson:
Thanks for having me.

Frederica Freyberg:
First off, how do you differentiate yourself from the major party candidates?

Phil Anderson:
We have a philosophical commitment to small government and returning government to the most local level as possible and to the people. Oftentimes you see Republicans and Democrats, certainly in this election cycle, talking about ways the government can solve problems. We talk about ways to put government back in the hands of individual people in their neighborhoods, their families, their county boards, their local city councils. That’s just not a commitment that you see from Democrats and Republicans.

Frederica Freyberg:
You’re polling at 3% in the latest poll. What do you say to people about why they should vote for you when it’s clear that someone else will be governor?

Phil Anderson:
Well, we have a primary goal and secondary goals. This is my third time running for office. I ran for Assembly in 2014, U.S. Senate in 2016. Knowing how difficult it is for third party candidates to break through into the media coverage, to break through into getting a sizable number of votes, and having a really good shot at winning, the primary goal is always to win when you start out. Because you have to feel that way when you get up in the morning and spend your day, your time and your money running for office. But the secondary goal is at least to bring issues to the forefront, to offer an alternative for people that’s different than Republicans and Democrats. When you cast a vote for me, you’re making a statement that the government that the Democrats and Republicans are offering just isn’t good enough and we need some change.

Frederica Freyberg:
You say you’re hearing from people that you should throw your support to one of the major party candidates. What’s your response to that?

Phil Anderson:
It has been a flood of people through on social media, through our website, asking we can’t have four more years of Scott Walker. Please consider throwing your support behind Tony Evers or vice versa. My response is heck no. My supporters are going to vote for me because they believe in what I stand for. If they’re Libertarians, they support me as a candidate or they support our party. I would never do them that disservice or that dishonor of thinking that it was okay to swing our support, even if they would listen to me, that it would be okay to swing our support behind another candidate because we are radically different than the message they put forth and what they’re probably going to do if either of them are elected.

Frederica Freyberg:
Health coverage and coverage of pre-existing conditions has risen to the top among people in the state this election. Would you favor repealing the Affordable Care Act and those protections?

Phil Anderson:
Well, let’s remember that those protections aren’t necessarily — you know, you don’t only get those protections in the Affordable Care Act.

Frederica Freyberg:
Right.

Phil Anderson:
That’s what Scott Walker is at least promising that he’s going to do. We’re not in favor of getting rid of any social safety nets right away. We prefer that the free market have answers and that we change the very nature of health care and health insurance so that it’s more affordable and more accessible. I’m not against repealing the Affordable Care Act. I prefer that it would be repealed because it’s a monstrosity of a bill written by the health insurance industry to make money for the health insurance industry. But in the short term, we can’t repeal things that people depend on, because we don’t want to throw the economy or people’s lives into chaos.

Frederica Freyberg:
On education, you favor school choice and local control. Would you cut the budget, the state budget for K-12?

Phil Anderson:
What we would do is end up cutting the budget on its own. Our program is called Universal Open Enrollment that would allow people to take the money that’s currently assigned to them via open enrollment, usually between $1800 and $2500. If you want to, say, transfer your child from the Verona School District to a Madison School District, and allow them to completely opt out if they want, another school district, a private school, homeschooling. That puts parents in charge of education. The thing that’s different than Scott Walker’s voucher program is his voucher program requires that private schools have Common Core standards before they can accept vouchers. We would just let the parents choose what education is best for their kids, whether that’s public, private, religious or homeschooling and let them use the tax money that they’ve paid into the system to do that.

Frederica Freyberg:
You say that the higher education system in Wisconsin needs reform. How so?

Phil Anderson:
Well, we need to have a more market-based approach. Right now you see a lot of competition for the university and a lot of ways that education can be delivered via distance learning, different schedules, all that sort of thing. I think we need to make a commitment to look at the university system in a way that provides and meets the needs that people have and not just be committed to four-year or more institution, everybody in the same spot, all the issues that come along with that.

Frederica Freyberg:
You want to legalize marijuana as well. Why?

Phil Anderson:
First of all, people should be free to do so. But second of all, it’s a very important component to criminal justice reform in Wisconsin. We know that we’ve got a vast difference in the amount of black people and white people that are incarcerated and a lot of that has to do with the war on drugs, the racist war on drugs. We know that it’s racist in intent and that’s how it’s been carried out since the very beginning. So to have a program of criminal justice reform requires that we look at the reasons that people are unjustly incarcerated. And that’s a big one.

Frederica Freyberg:
You’d like to privatize public assistance? How do you do that?

Phil Anderson:
Well, that’s more of a program in a long term. We need to not necessarily privatize it right away, but look at ways that local communities can be more involved in helping their people that are needy as opposed to, again, the state or the federal government being involved because anytime something goes to the state or federal level, oftentimes there’s corruption and inefficiency involved. I believe that when those problems are dealt with at the local level, not only is there more efficiency and transparency and accountability in those programs, but in the giving and in the receiving of assistance there is charity and there is dignity in the receiving. When it’s a massive government program, that’s not there anymore.

Frederica Freyberg:
We need to leave it there. Phil Anderson, thanks very much.

Phil Anderson:
Thanks for having me.

Frederica Freyberg:
It’s all hands on deck for election officials with just three days to go before voters go to the polls. In tonight’s look ahead, a check-in with the administrator of the Wisconsin Elections Commission, Meagan Wolfe. Thanks for being here.

Meagan Wolfe:
Thanks for having me.

Frederica Freyberg:
All systems are go for November 6?

Meagan Wolfe:
Are systems are go and all hands on are deck.

Frederica Freyberg:
ProPublica is reporting today that Wisconsin was running what they described as an insecure file-sharing software for reporting of election results until it was shut down this week. What can you tell us about that?

Meagan Wolfe:
Well, there’s a few very important things to point out about that. First of all, this was not the statewide voter registration system. This was not the public facing website where voters go to find their polling place. This was a static, content website that we have to do regular maintenance on and we regularly upload files to such as press releases and other static content. So this was not something that would have access to voter information or data on polling places. Again, this was just a static content website that we regularly post new information to for public consumption. Also, I think that the report mischaracterized a little bit what this site is used for. It is not where election night results are aggregated or posted for the public. On election night what we do, what our responsibility under the statute is, is to actually point to county websites that post unofficial election results for each municipality on the county websites. So we may have links to some of those websites, but we do not receive or put the unofficial election night results or the official election results are not aggregated through that site either.

Frederica Freyberg:
Why was it shut down?

Meagan Wolfe:
So, again, it’s part of normal maintenance on a website, is to be able to upload and change files on the site. What we liken this port to is let’s say if somebody was going through a neighborhood and shaking on door knobs to try to find something that was open, this was a locked door. If they came up to this door and they did not have the key, they would not be able to get access. But if they were able to find that key or obtain that key through illegal means, they might be able to get access using that key. Now that we’re closer to the election, we have since bricked up all of those reports so that you cannot even change or update any of the content on the site even if you are an administrator with lawful access.

Frederica Freyberg:
In these days running up to the election, has your commission seen any kind of Russian or other tampering, any kind of these rattling of the doors as you described?

Meagan Wolfe:
We have not seen anything that is elevated to the level of being anything remarkable. Every single day, every week, the state of Wisconsin network and enterprise has millions of attempts of people trying to shake on those door knobs, find a way into our system, but nothing has been remarkable and all those attempts are blocked unless somebody has lawful business with the state of Wisconsin.

Frederica Freyberg:
And so how would you describe the security of Wisconsin’s election system?

Meagan Wolfe:
Wisconsin voters should feel very confident in the state of security with Wisconsin Election Commission systems and the enterprise that helps to protect that. We routinely have scans, vulnerability assessments and other assessments done through not just the state, but also through our federal partners, like the Department of Homeland Security, that come in and try to find vulnerabilities in the system so that we can continue to strengthen the system. We continually undergo these assessments to make sure that we are constantly staying up-to-date with any maintenance that needs to be done on the state wide voter registration system or any other systems that regulate elections here in the state.

Frederica Freyberg:
What kinds of numbers are you seeing in early and absentee voting?

Meagan Wolfe:
About 519,000 absentee ballots have been issued across the state of Wisconsin and these are for voters who have either requested their ballot by mail or might be voting absentee in person in their clerk’s office. And of those, about 460,000 have been returned thus far and will be counted on election day at the voters’ polling place.

Frederica Freyberg:
We’ve seen polls showing that the major party candidates are in a neck and neck race. Are there provisions for recounts and what are those?

Meagan Wolfe:
Sure. So the law for recounts has actually changed as of recently, since the last general election. As of right now, if there were to be a recount, there’s no automatic trigger for a recount, but someone that is an aggrieved candidate as part of an election, they could request to have a recount of that contest if there is less than — if there’s a 1% or less difference between the vote totals for those two candidates. Now, there’s a couple other nuances. If there is less than a .25% difference between the two top vote getters, then the state would actually pay for that recount. If it’s between .26 and 1%, then the candidates themselves would need to pay for the recount expenses.

Frederica Freyberg:
For voters, if they go to the polls and they’re no longer on the registration books, what should they do?

Meagan Wolfe:
Sure. So if a voter has been deactivated because we believe they have moved — so there are some regular list maintenance processes that are part of state law. One of those is if we see a voter has potentially moved, by comparing the voter registration information against the DMV, that voter record is then deactivated because we have sent that voter a mailing indicating we believe they have moved and we have given them an opportunity to send back a postcard affirming if they do indeed still live at that address. Now if the voter does show up at the polls and they were sent one of those postcards and let’s say they did not return it but they have not moved, they can actually affirm what we call a supplemental poll book that they still reside at that address. Now, that being said, this is just for those voters that we believe moved and that we sent a postcard to in 2017. If you have not voted in more than four years, state law does require that your voter record be deactivated. In that case, when you get to the polls on election day, you will need to reregister to vote at your current name and address.

Frederica Freyberg:
All right. Lots to go through. Meagan Wolfe, thanks you very much.

Meagan Wolfe:
Thank you.

Frederica Freyberg:
Next week post-election, we will have news and analysis on the winners and losers. Until then, I’m Frederica Freyberg. Have a great weekend.

Announcer:
Funding for “Here & Now” is provided, in part, by Friends of Wisconsin Public Television.
For more information on “Here & Now’s” 2018 election coverage, go to WisconsinVote.org.