Here & Now

Here & Now for Aug. 10, 2018

Announcer:

The following program is part of our “Here & Now” 2018 Wisconsin Vote election coverage.

Shawn Johnson:

Good evening. I’m Wisconsin Public Radio’s Shawn Johnson filling in for Frederica Freyberg this week. Tonight on “Here & Now,” a first look at next Tuesday’s primary election. We’ll follow the money trail, expectations and what will be decide the election. Then in our look ahead, security at the polls. Find out why one election supervisor says voting is safe but more could be done. And a closer look at DNR rules that will go in effect for this upcoming deer hunting season. It’s “Here & Now” for August 10th.

Announcer:

Funding for “Here & Now” is provided in part by Friends of Wisconsin Public Television.

Shawn Johnson:

We begin this week with a first look at new fundraising numbers in the primary for governor. Fundraising is key to any campaign and this week candidates were required to publicly release their last financial statements before the August 14th primary. For the month of July, Kelda Roys topped the democratic field raising more than $147,000. Mahlon Mitchell and Tony Evers both raised raised six figures over that same period with $117,000 and $109,000 respectively. Paul Soglin rounds out the top four fundraisers with more than $45,000. Roys also tops the field in money spent during July, spending more than a half million dollars. The top fundraisers, except for Soglin, all spent in the six figures. In the rest of the field, Flynn raised just under $34,000, followed by Mike McCabe, Josh Pade and Kathleen Vinehout. Matt Flynn spent the second most of the democrats, spending more than $280,000 in July. The rest of the field, including Paul Soglin, spent less than $34,000 dollars. On the republican side, Scott walker raised $670,000 in July and spent $1.7 million using money he raised previously. His republican challenger Robert Meyer raised and spent $42 during the same period.

Just days before next week’s primary, we take an inside look at the candidates and the campaigns they’ve waged for governor and U.S. Senate. The last Marquette University Law School polls showed 38% of democratic voters were undecided in the race for governor last month. And 30% of GOP voters were undecided in the race for senate. So on the closing weeks of the campaign, who has stood out and what might decide the races? We’ve asked University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Political Expert Mordecai Lee to join us with his insights. Mordecai, thanks as always for joining us.

Mordecai Lee:

Thanks for inviting me, Shawn.

Shawn Johnson:

So as we head into the home stretch here, what do you see as the key factors on the democratic side that will produce a winner in this eight-candidate primary?

Mordecai Lee:

What I see as the key factor is what we can’t see. In other words, we often talk about an iceberg: what’s above, what’s below the surface. I think there’s some grass roots, prairie fire going on for some of the candidates that didn’t get picked up by any of the polling. Not because the polling was bad but simply because that below the surface effort is hard to measure. I think we’re going to have some surprises not just because Wisconsin voters love to surprise experts but because I think a couple of those candidates are hot but not measurable.

Shawn Johnson:

You don’t think necessarily think we know who’s going to win that one, that 38% of undecided could break to somebody who’s not at the top of those polls, Tony Evers?

Mordecai Lee:

Exactly. That’s not in any way to criticize his candidacy, but I think it’s reasonable to say that because he’s run statewide before he has a certain amount of name recognition and that he’s the logical frontrunner. But Wisconsin voters don’t like logic necessarily. They sometimes fall in love with somebody and we can’t tell until the night of the primary. So if anybody wanted to bet me on the predictability on Wisconsin voters, I’ll take that bet that they’re unpredictable.

Shawn Johnson:

How much has money played a role in this democratic primary and how much of a role is it going to play in the general election?

Mordecai Lee:

You know it’s really awful that money has to be a factor in campaigns. We believe in democracy. We think that the best candidate ought to be able to communicate and win. But it’s true that TV advertising is enormously expensive. And the reason why I’m thinking there might be an upset on Tuesday is because a candidate who isn’t necessarily in a wall-to-wall TV buy might have so many volunteers going door-to-door this week and knocking on doors, knock and drops, making phone calls that they might be able to negate the importance of money. To a certain extent, I think we’d all like to see success and democracy not measured by money. Now what’s going to happen is whoever wins the primary, the next day they’re going to hit a wall of attack ads from Governor Walker. Governor Walker sort of believes in the Carl Rove school of politics which is attack, attack, attack. And so the question is if the winner in the primary can turn around fast enough, faster than Tommy Thompson did when he won the primary for U.S. Senate six years ago. He sort of went dark. He was raising money for three or four weeks. The key for the democratic winner is not to go dark.

Shawn Johnson:

You think endorsements will matter in this race? Any in particular that stood out to you?

Mordecai Lee:

I think endorsements really make a difference for this below-the-surface kind of campaign. In other words, we all sit in front of the TV set. We all see the kind of TV advertising that’s going on. But if we get a phone call from somebody who says, “You know, I’m voting for so and so and I live right down the block.” Or we get a postcard or any other kind of contact: my brother-in-laws, sister-in-laws, uncle happens to know so and so from college and says so and so’s a really good candidate that, in Wisconsin politics, can make a difference. That’s called the friends and neighbors effect. It’s the word of mouth. And just like some movies can suddenly be successful based on word of mouth, the same thing can happen in politics when you have a relatively low turnout.

Shawn Johnson:

Are there any issues in this primary where democrats have taken a stand on something that maybe they wouldn’t have had they not had that competitive primary? Something that they would end up regretting in the general election campaign?

Mordecai Lee:

It’s possible that’ll happen but I think we can see the primaries as a warm-up round. In other words, a spring season for them to get their lines down, to be ready for any surprises, to know what their positions are. It’ll probably come down to the fact that on Tuesday are people going to vote for who they fell in love with? Or are they going to vote for who they think would be the strongest candidate to beat Governor Walker? That’s a tough decision in terms of primary voters. But the primary turnout might be surprisingly high, in which case even those bets are all off.

Shawn Johnson:

There’s also a senate race on the republican side with two republicans vying for a chance to take on U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin. How would you sum up the race between state Senator Leah Vukmir and Marine veteran Kevin Nicholson?

Mordecai Lee:

This is the ultimate showdown between, I guess what we’d call the old Wisconsin Republican Party, the Scott Walker Republican Party, conservatives mainstream, versus the Trump Republican Party. So you’ve got two candidates, both of whom are conservative by all measures. Both of whom say they support President Trump but one of them came up through the ranks, sort of the republican establishment. She’s been endorsed by the party. The other one is coming from outside. No prior running record, no prior office holding. So who would the republican primary voters prefer? We have to remember that when President Trump ran in the Wisconsin presidential primary, he lost the primary. But now the party has really had an earthquake. Now the party – 90% of republicans say they support Trump. So I’ll be darned if I can figure out who’s going to win on Tuesday.

Shawn Johnson:

You alluded to this but Leah Vukmir has come up through the ranks throughout her entire political career. She started with a grassroots group. She’s been a legislator. She’s endorsed by the state Republican Party. Paul Ryan, she’s personal friends with Scott Walker. She’s beloved by conservative talk radio in southeast Wisconsin. So how has she not put this thing away?

Mordecai Lee:

I guess this is an indication of what a revolution Mr. Trump has brought to the Republican Party. That somebody who’s never run for office before, is totally unknown, is a contender, is neck and neck. It’s a horse race. They’re nose to nose and because of Trump, we’re viewing candidates from the outside. The ones who say I want to drain the swamp. I’m not part of the establishment. That suddenly is hot. What it might come down to is there might be some voters in the middle on Tuesday. Voters who say, “I really don’t care which of those two is the republican nominee, but it’s more interesting to vote in the democratic primary for governor. So I think we’re going to be seeing some shifting voting patterns. And I think we’re going to be seeing a larger than usual turnout. I think we might see a turnout of 25%, maybe even 30%.

Shawn Johnson:

And just about a minute left here. Kevin Nicholson has embraced this outsider label and talked about running against the establishment. When he’s talking about the establishment here, he’s talking about Paul Ryan. He’s talking about Scott walker who is on the ballot. Can that work in a state like Wisconsin first of all? Does that end up as some republicans have suggested hurting Scott Walker in November?

Mordecai Lee:

Given that President Trump won Wisconsin in the November election versus Mrs. Clinton, that’s an indication that somebody who’s a like-Trump candidate can have a good chance of winning. After all, we used to criticize candidates who said, “Well, we don’t know them. Where did they come from? They came out of nowhere.” Nowadays, that’s a badge of honor and that’s why he’s a contender for that election.

Shawn Johnson:

Mordecai Lee, we need to leave it there. Thank you for joining us.

Mordecai Lee:

Thank you Shawn.

Shawn Johnson:

A barrage of new political ads have been appearing on TV, radio and social media in the final weeks of the campaign. And with outside interests entering the fray in Wisconsin, the number of ads you see and hear will intensify before the November election. Multimedia journalist Marisa Wojcik spoke with UW-Madison Political Science Professor Barry Burden earlier this week during a live web-first interview for his take on those ads.

Marisa Wojcik:

So of the pre-primary ads that we’ve seen so far, is there anything about the collection of them that stood out to you?

Barry Burden:

Well a lot of them are still biographical, introducing themselves. There’s an ad for Mahlon Mitchell where he’s really telling people his story. We saw the Kevin Nicholson ad he’s telling his story about who he is. And I think you have to do that at this point because there’s so many Wisconsin voters who aren’t yet tuned into the campaign, don’t know who the candidates are or maybe know something about them but haven’t made a firm decision. The primary’s looming. It’s just days away and so there’s a really pressure to try to warm yourself up to voters and make a compelling case why you’re the person who should be in office. Broadcast is going to be the most bang for the buck at the end of the day. There’s still a huge swath of people who watch local television who are going to be exposed to the ads. Campaigns can’t ignore social media and digital advertising so they’re going to spend money and time on that as well. It just ends up being a multi-faceted campaign but in the end, I think if you want to be a serious candidate statewide, you’ve got to be on television and that costs money.

Marisa Wojcik:

Are we going to get a little bit of a break after the primary when it comes to ads or are we going to ramp right back up?

Barry Burden:

I think they’ll be a small break and then it has to ramp up quickly. The election’s in November, that’s just three months away. Early voting will start in mid-October. They’ll be voter registration drives in advance of that, so there isn’t a lot of time for campaigns to sit and wait. And in fact, on both sides, there are already organizations in place to help whoever the nominee is for the republicans in the senate race, for democrats in the governor’s race to have an organization and some money ready to roll, to regroup the party and aim at their opponent in the general election.

Shawn Johnson:

To watch the full interview with Professor Barry Burden, visit wpt.org.

Now we continue to provide a closer look at statements previously made by the candidates on our program. Multimedia reporter Marisa Wojcik followed up with Kathleen Vinehout and puts into context her views on Wisconsin wages.

Marisa Wojcik:

Speaking to the economy, democratic candidate for governor, Kathleen Vinehout recently told us Wisconsin needs to catch up when it comes to wages.

Kathleen Vinehout:

We need to raise wages. Wisconsin is 18th worst in the United States in wages, worse than Louisiana, Georgia, Tennessee.

Marisa Wojcik:

Wisconsin has been hovering in the bottom half of these rankings. First let’s look at the median hourly wage which is the midpoint of the wage scale with half making more and half making less. The median hourly wage was $17.81 for a Wisconsin worker, 19.84 in Minnesota and $18.12 nationally in 2017. But some say a more accurate picture is in what’s called real wages which accounts for inflation and determines how far your dollar can go. A May report from the Economic Policy Institute showed that from 2010 to 2017, there was a 1.3% increase in real wages nationally and 2.4% increase in Minnesota and only 0.3% increase in Wisconsin. With Wisconsin’s unemployment at record lows, some expect wages to increase in order to attract more workers. Vinehout has called for Wisconsin to raise its minimum wage from its current $7.25 an hour. Starting in 2014, Minnesota began a series of minimum wage increases. A June policy brief found that these increases have had a negative impact on some young and low-skilled workers. Both Minnesota and Wisconsin were some of the first states to enact minimum wage laws in 1913. For these and other fast facts, visit wpt.org.

Shawn Johnson:

In this week’s look ahead, security experts are warning that they have proof voting systems can be hacked. As the Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism discovered, security analysts are most concerned about close elections because you don’t need to hack all the systems around the state, but altering a few could change the outcome. We spoke to county clerk who takes election security very seriously and thinks our system should be audited, if only to prove that everything is working properly.

Lisa Tollefson:

When we open the polls, it actually prints out a zero tape. And that zero tape is confirming that the results on this machine are zero at the beginning of the election day. Many people don’t understand the multiple layers of security there are in elections. The biggest issue that we have seen, we did the presidential recount in 2016 and the biggest thing we found were missed write-ins, human error. So with the machines, the machines were really, really accurate. It was the human error. I actually do the coding for our county, but they can’t link into my system and see what I’ve done because it’s not connected anywhere. It’s kept separate. There’s usually a security seal that’s put on here. So you can see how this says void. The Wisconsin Election Commission does audits of 100 different reporting units after the general election. And they’re randomly choosing those locations to have those. We all follow a lot of the same parameters that we need to to secure our elections. I may just look at the audits differently. What I’m looking for is anomalies that don’t make sense to me. I want to check it out further to make sure there’s not something missing. Usually it’s fine. And usually the inspector statements will explain it. Anything can be hacked as long as there’s enough time and enough resources. When we seal these bags, you can see if someone broke into them, with multiple layers, because they say void. It lowers that a tremendous amount. There are times when we will open those bags at the count, at our board of canvas and we’ll look at them to see if there’s anything. Even if it proves that our system is working.

Shawn Johnson:

Wisconsin has post-election audits but they only verify if the equipment functioned properly. Once again, National Intelligence says that’s not enough. Only 100 of Wisconsin’s 3600 are randomly selected for audits. In a recent interview with the Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism, Megan Wolfe, interim administrator for the Wisconsin Election Commission, said that her staff recently traveled to Colorado where post-election audits are mandatory and said that Wisconsin is thinking of implementing a similar framework under existing law. Election audits will be on the agenda for the commission’s September meeting. For the upcoming election, you can find out about all the information on the races, the candidates and the election results at WisconsinVote.org. It’s a joint partnership between Wisconsin Public Television and Radio and your source for election news. For all of your election questions, get answers at WisconsinVote.org.

In this week’s Wisconsin look, the incentive package to help Kimberly Clark hits a snag. Some members of the legislature want a $100 million tax incentive package to keep Kimberly Clark from shuttering one of its two factories in the Fox Valley. A prominent Wisconsin republican says the state senate currently does not have the votes for a Kimberly Clark incentive package. The legislation would give Foxconn-like incentives to the paper company.

The Natural Resources Board this week passed new emergency rules to combat the spread of chronic wasting disease in Wisconsin. Those rules include requiring enhanced fencing around deer farms, banning the movement of live deer from deer farms and hunting ranches and CWD-affected counties and prohibits hunters from moving whole deer carcass from those counties. The emergency CWD rules will be in effect for the hunting season this fall. Joining us this week is George Meyer of the Wisconsin Wildlife Federation and former DNR secretary. George, thanks you for joining us.

George Meyer:

Thank you for having me Shawn.

Shawn Johnson:

You support these rules? Do they go far enough in stopping the spread of CWD?

George Meyer:

We do supports the rules. Wisconsin Wildlife Federation supports the rules. There could be additional rules, maybe in the future but these are a major step forward to slow the spread of chronic wasting disease.

Shawn Johnson:

So deer farms required to have an eight-foot fence. These new rules would require a second fence, an electric fence or a solid perimeter fence. Can you explain why that requirement is being added and have deer farms been an issue with the spread of CWD?

George Meyer:

They have. Let’s start with the spreading. In the last three years, there’s been ten new outbreaks of chronic wasting disease in different deer farms than there had been previously. And it’s not just in southern Wisconsin, where the wild deer has CWD, it’s been up in Oneida County and northern counties, many of these new areas. So the — having an additional fence is also necessary because if it gets into one of these new areas — single fencing hasn’t worked. In the last three years, there’s been 53 times where deer have broken out of deer farms when they just had a single fence. So this second fence is to prevent — another barrier of — from deer breaking out or contact through the fence between wild deer and deer farm deer. Many of them will probably go to the electric fence alternative because it’ll be the less expensive. In terms of the movement of carcasses by hunters, that’s pretty important also. And what the rule basically says is if you’re hunting in an area that has chronic waste disease in the wild herd, you can’t move the carcass except to an immediately adjacent county that has chronic waste disease and definitely not in any county that doesn’t unless it’s going to a meat processor, take it to some place to have your meat processed, that’s fine. And there’s a couple of other exemptions, but the idea is not to spread the disease that way also.

Shawn Johnson:

So why is this significant for hunters and then why is this significant for somebody who’s not a hunter?

George Meyer:

Well, the deer herd in this state is critically important for sports men and women. It’s the prime animal that’s hunted in the state. It’s an important part of our hunting legacy in the state. It provides a lot of food on the table for sports men and women in the state. And it’s really an economic benefit. Estimated that hunting and wildlife watching associated with deer herd brings — is about a billion dollar industry in this state. So really it’s important in terms of spreading it and ultimately it affecting the whole deer herd.

Shawn Johnson:

Some have called for a statewide baiting and feeding ban? Where does Wisconsin Wildlife Federation stand on that?

George Meyer:

We have supported that for many years. Last 10, 15 years, I think we took a vote on that and made our public statement about 12 years ago. Some hunting groups and some hunters don’t like it but the majority of hunters do. They understand when you bring these animals together over feed, you get saliva and other ways of passing the prions that cause chronic wasting disease.

Shawn Johnson:

Another hot button issue at the DNR this week, the agency reversed course on another policy. It had removed law enforcement credentials from park rangers and was instead having wardens provide more coverage in state parks. For those who don’t know, what’s the difference between a DNR warden and a park ranger with law enforcement credentials? What did DNR do? And then what did they undo?

George Meyer:

Basically, what the DNR did, about a year ago, was basically make the conservation wardens in charge of not just the environmental regulations they enforce in hunting and fishing regulations, they also put them in charge of enforcing the regulations you have at a state park from registration and camp fires and any violations of law and also for forest rangers who have responsibility for arson and things like that. They did it to streamline training and things like that, which had on its face sounded fairly good. Except there ended up not being enough staff, wardens in local areas to take over at local parks. Example, Door County has five parks. There were only two or three wardens in Door County. There was a marine unit on the lake. So what they were having to do is bring wardens great distances from other parts of the state which entailed cost of travel, lodging and the time spent on the road hours eating up their hours. But also it left the game — like boating enforcement, fishing enforcement in the summer plummeted because the wardens weren’t at their local stations.

Shawn Johnson:

We’re going to have to leave it there. George Meyer with the Wisconsin Wildlife Federation, thank you for joining us.

George Meyer:

Appreciate it Shawn.

Shawn Johnson:

A few quick reminders before we leave you this week regarding the upcoming Wisconsin election. If you missed last week’s “Here & Now” primary election special on the race for governor, you can find it online at WisconsinVote.org. You’ll hear from the candidates in their own words where they stand on health care, education and the economy along with insight from the campaign trail. You can find it at WisconsinVote.org. And finally tonight, remember to vote on Tuesday, August 14th. Statewide the polls up at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m. Well continue to keep you informed each Friday night on “Here & Now.” Wisconsin Public Radio will also continue to follow the candidates and the issues right up to election day in November. Join Frederica Freyberg, Rob Ferrett and myself on primary election night. Wisconsin Public Radio will be live starting at 8 p.m. Results, reports from the field and analysis. That’s coming Tuesday night, August 14th, live on Wisconsin Public Radio. Next week on “Here & Now,” Scot Ross from One Wisconsin Now and Bill McCoshen from Capital Consultants react to primary election results. The winners and losers and how the race for governor and U.S. Senate could shape up this fall. That’s next week on “Here & Now.” We hope you’ll join us. I’m Shawn Johnson in for Frederica Freyberg. Have a great weekend.

Announcer:

Funding for “Here & Now” is provided, in part, by Friends of Wisconsin Public Television.

For more information on “Here & Now’s” 2018 election coverage, go to WisconsinVote.org.