Announcer:

The following program is part of our “Here and Now” 2018 Wisconsin Vote election coverage.

Paul Ryan:

Today I am announcing that this year will be my last one as a member of the House.

Frederica Freyberg:

House Speaker Paul Ryan rocked the political world Wednesday when he announced he will not seek re-election. I’m Frederica Freyberg. Tonight on “Here and Now,” the Wisconsin GOP forecasts the road ahead for its party in the 1st Congressional District and beyond. Then, in our look ahead, we will introduce you to the democrats on the primary ballot running to fill Ryan's seat. It’s “Here and Now” for April 13.

Announcer:

Funding for “Here and Now” is provided, in part, by Friends of Wisconsin Public Television.

Frederica Freyberg:

After sharing the news first with his staff, then in a gathering of House leaders, Wisconsin Congressman and House Speaker Paul Ryan took to the podium in Washington Wednesday and made it official. His current term is his last. He said his decision was based on family first.

Paul Ryan:

All three of our kids are teenagers. One thing I've learned about teenagers is their idea of an ideal weekend is not necessarily to spend all of their time with their parents. What I realize is, if I am here for one more term, my kids will only have ever known me as a weekend dad. I just can’t let that happen. Some of you know my story. My dad died when I was 16, the age my daughter is. And I just don’t want to be one of those people looking back at my life thinking I'd spend more time with my kids when I know if I spend another term, they will only know me as a weekend father. Probably the two biggest achievements for me are first: the major reform of our tax code for the first time in 36 years. Which has already been a huge success for this country. That’s something I've been working on my entire adult life. Second, something I got much, much more invested on since becoming speaker is to rebuild our nation’s military. And after tax reform, addressing our military readiness crisis, that was a top priority we got done last month as well.

Frederica Freyberg:

Congressman Ryan’s announcement leaves many questions like who will run as a Republican from Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District? What will Ryan's decision mean for other Republicans in the midterms? What does Ryan’s move mean for Democrats? Those topics just ahead, but first a look back at one of Wisconsin's most famous politicians.

This was Wisconsin's introduction to Paul Ryan, when he first dipped his toe into politics.

Patty Loew:

Mr. Ryan currently works in marketing at his family’s construction company. This is his first run for public office and we welcome you to “WeekEnd.”

Paul Ryan:

Thank you very much. Nice to be here.

Frederica Freyberg:

Voters went on to elect the Janesville 20-something in 1998, the same year Newt Gingrich stepped down as House Speaker.

Paul Ryan:

Well it looks like we’re going to have some new, fresh leadership.

Frederica Freyberg:

Fourteen years after that…

[cheers and applause]

…Ryan was stumping for the second highest office in the land.

Mitt Romney:

He represents the best of America. A man who will always make us very proud. My friend and America's next vice president, Paul Ryan.

[cheers and applause]

Frederica Freyberg:

Paul Ryan's run for vice president catapulted him to new political heights nationally.

Paul Ryan:

I love Wisconsin.

Frederica Freyberg:

And in Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District. Even as he launched his campaign for higher office, the Badger State held a special place.

Paul Ryan:

It is good to be home.

[cheers and applause]

Frederica Freyberg:

And now being home with his wife Janna and their three children is what he says he wants instead of more elections and more time away, no matter his political success.

Paul Ryan:

It really is a story of cheesehead domination.

[cheers and applause]

Frederica Freyberg:

Following the Republican loss of the 2012 election, Ryan returned to Congress and his chairmanship of the House Budget Committee. He was briefly chair of Ways and Means before being elected House Speaker in 2015.

Paul Ryan leaves big shoes to fill, but by whom? And what does it mean for other Republicans in November races? Now a closer look at the road ahead for the outgoing speaker’s party. We talked with the executive director of the Republican Party of Wisconsin. We started by asking Mark Morgan his reaction to Ryan's announcement.

Mark Morgan:

Well, I learned like a lot of Wisconsin Republicans and others. Learned it that morning. For us, Paul Ryan has been a thought leader in the conservative movement nationally. He’s been a leader in the party nationally. Certainly been a leader here for the Wisconsin Republicans. So surprised that he’s making the move. But at the same time for a guy who has been elected since 1998, he’s served as a public servant for a substantial period of time and really accomplished a lot on behalf of his constituents and his ideas in D.C. Can’t blame the guy for wanting to spend some more time with his family and with kids. For me personally, he’s someone who–certainly an inspiration for why I wanted to get into politics in the first place. He’ll be missed, but wish him best in what comes next.

Frederica Freyberg:

The governor, as you know, has been warning of a blue wave. What are your concerns that Paul Ryan's departure will help that along?

Mark Morgan:

Sure. I think for that district especially you know this is a district where Speaker Ryan was re-elected time and time again from 1998 until now. It’s a district where Governor Walker has done very well, winning by double digits multiple times. President Trump won this district. Even Mitt Romney won the district in 2012. This is a district where the voters in that district have time and again rewarded folks who have a strong conservative message. Who have a message of delivering real results and trying to reform Washington and really make government work harder for the people and putting tax dollars back in the hands of those taxpayers. So this is a district where we’ve got a great bench. A lot of strong candidates could come out of it and end up being the next standard bearer for the 1st Congressional District. We feel very good about our prospects there.

Frederica Freyberg:

Who would you like to see run for that seat?

Mark Morgan:

We've got a lot of good candidates who I think could pop out of it. You’ve seen a lot of names getting floated around. I’ll let them speak for themselves and let them tell their own stories.

Frederica Freyberg:

What kind of candidate though would you like to see, would the party like to see?

Mark Morgan:

Yeah. I think the biggest thing for us, it’s not a biography background. It’s more, you know, that you’re going to end up kind of carrying that standard message that’s become the strong brand of Wisconsin conservatives across the board. That reform-minded message, the kind of message that made Paul Ryan the champion in Washington and in his district. That, I think, would make somebody strong. Whether it’s a long-time activist or activists in the area running, whether it’s local elected officials. I think there’s a lot of folks fit that mold.

Frederica Freyberg:

Nationally, at the congressional level, how might GOP fund-raising and campaigning be affected with Paul Ryan being a lame duck?

Mark Morgan:

Yeah, I mean I think as far as the campaigning goes, nationally I don’t want to speak too much to it just ’cause I live and breathe on the borders of Wisconsin here. Certainly Speaker Ryan was a strong campaigner but I think, again, it’s the strength of that message he imbued across his caucus and with his candidates. Here in Wisconsin, I think you know, you’re still going to see him active, He’s still committed to really run through the tape and being strong. Making sure we keep the first and do what we have to do both here in Wisconsin and nationally.

Frederica Freyberg:

At one point there was kind of this cheesehead domination, as Paul Ryan dubbed it, with Scott Walker, Reince Priebus and the speaker himself, kind of the power triad of conservative Republican voices. What do the changing tides mean for the governor as he goes forward with his re-election campaign?

Mark Morgan:

Yeah. In terms of the cheesehead domination, certainly that’s been a hallmark of the Wisconsin Republican Party. It’s just the broad range of strong leaders we have with national platforms, but a Wisconsin focus. Whether that’s, like you said, the governor, Chairman Priebus when he was at the RNC or in the White House, the speaker certainly. Even Senator Johnson and others who very much had a national stage to talk about Wisconsin conservatism. As for the governor and others, with the speaker stepping aside, he’s still going to be a strong element, I think, here in Wisconsin through this election cycle. I’m sure he’ll continue to be a thought leader within the conservative movement. And for the governor, he’s always, like everybody else in Wisconsin with that Wisconsin Republican brand, they stood strong on their own records that they’ve run on. So I think for him, it’s not really much of a change there.

Frederica Freyberg:

Is it surprising to the Republican Party that there seems to be a resurgence on the part of Democrats?

Mark Morgan:

You know, this is the kind of story that I've heard from Democrats time and time again. This is I don’t think terribly different than what we saw during the recall. Frankly, I’ve heard this narrative about Democrat energy in 2016 as well. What the Democrats are going to have to end up doing is actually convert that energy when elections come around in November with folks. Whether it’s Governor Walker, whether it’s Speaker Ryan, who’s running in the first, across the board who have these strong records, who have been rewarded by voters time and time again because they fight for the voters. They keep their word and they continue to have the strong message they’re talking about. Democrats are going to have to find a standard bearer that actually has their own strong message to run on. That actually gives the voters a reason to vote for them and for their ideas. I just don’t think they’ve found that solution.

Frederica Freyberg:

What role, if any, do you think Donald Trump plays in Republicans not running for re-election or being worried about the midterms?

Mark Morgan:

As far as it goes here in Wisconsin, I just don’t think it’s a nonfactor — I think it’s a nonfactor, I should say. You know, with Speaker Ryan, I think explicit about the fact that if you know the speaker in any way, you know that he’s a family man. You know he’s focused on wanting to spend more time with his family. I think that’s you know really the key part of his decision. For the rest of that, I mean here in Wisconsin, whether it’s what’s happened in Washington with things like tax reform or regulatory relief, securing a conservative majority on the Supreme Court for a generation and more importantly, the strength of every Republican’s brand here in Wisconsin, which I think is unique and stands on its own. That’s what they’re focused on, is talking about the good things being done in D.C. and Madison here and not focused on anything else.

Frederica Freyberg:

Speaking of kind of a blue wave, what’s your reaction to liberal candidate Rebecca Dallet winning the state Supreme Court race?

Mark Morgan:

Certainly, I just echo what the governor said after that night. I think it’s a wake-up call. Again, it’s something that we need to be focused on making sure we get our message out. Look, we are strong believers, as I think you probably got the picture for the previous answers. If we get our message out, if we make sure that the voters hear about this is what we’re focused on, this is what we’ve accomplished and this is what we’re going to continue doing should you put your faith in Republicans to continue governing. If they hear that message and they hear that platform, they’re ultimately going to vote for those strong Republican candidates who have that brand. And it stands in such stark contrast to Democrats, including Rebecca Dallet in her race. And I think the ones you’re seeing in the governor’s race or Senator Baldwin’s or others, I mean their primary platform seems to be elect us because we’re Democrats. And that’s it. There really isn’t a substantive platform they have to run on. That’s a strong contrast to our message. We just need to double down, focus and make sure we’re getting it out.

Frederica Freyberg:

Later in the program, we will introduce you to two of the Democrats on the primary ballot running to fill Paul Ryan's seat. Here’s what Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Martha Laning said about Representative Ryan’s decision not to seek re-election. “His retirement is an admission by Speaker Ryan that his constituents do not approve of tax cuts for the rich at the expense of Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security. Ryan could not win over his constituents to his damaging tax plan, let alone the nation.” For what’s sure to be a distinctly partisan take on things, we welcome conservative Bill McCoshen, managing partner at Capitol Consultants and Scot Ross, Executive Director of the liberal One Wisconsin Now. Thanks for being here.

Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross:

Thanks for having us.

Frederica Freyberg:

First thing, your reaction to Paul Ryan saying he’s not running for re-election. First to you.

Scot Ross:

I’d say this. Paul Ryan's been in Washington D.C. since 1992. He’s a career D.C. guy. The one thing we know about D.C. lifers is they do not leave of their own volition and that’s what Paul Ryan’s doing. Now would he have won his re-election race? It’s entirely possible. But him leaving, cutting and running now is a good sign he knows the end is near for the Republican House majority.

Frederica Freyberg:

You think that’s the case?

Bill McCoshen:

I don’t. It’s possible the Democrats could take back the House. We’ll see on that. But I don’t think that the 1st District’s in jeopardy to be honest with you. This is a deeply red district. Paul Ryan's been there 20 years. The average of his ten elections has been 63.5%. The last Democrat to win the 1st Congressional District was Barack Obama in 2008 and he won it by four points. And by the way, that was on a much different map back then. This is a deeply red seat.

Frederica Freyberg:

So he could win his re-election. But what if stuff happened around him, the big blue wave that everyone speaks of?

Bill McCoshen:

Well, I think one of the things that he’s doing that’s unusual is he’s staying as Speaker, at least for the time being. We’ll see if his conference decides to go another direction. He’s been able to raise $54 million. That’s a record amount for any Speaker. He’s raising money for the team. And now there’s two guys competing for his job who will also be out there raising money. So I think that actually benefits the Republicans.

Frederica Freyberg:

So it's a good thing because that was another question I had. What do you think it does to the Republicans’ ability to raise money for the midterms and campaign?

Scot Ross:

I mean I think they'll be able to raise money. They always have. They always have–they’ll always out-raise the Democrats. But can the Democrats raise enough to compete? I think yes. I think the small dollar fund-raising we’ve seen all around the country is going to be really good for the Democrats. I think they will have the resources to compete. I think we have a very positive atmosphere in terms of electoral things. I think the big challenge that comes out now because of this race in the 1st C.D. is the kind of conversation that’s going to be going on down there. Whereas Paul Ryan was able to stay back in Washington D.C. and not have to talk about his allegiance to Donald Trump, his fealty to Donald Trump, you’re going to have two, three, four candidates down there competing to say who is closest to Trump. That’s toxic for the Republicans.

Bill McCoshen:

We'll see. Trump won the district. He got 52% in that district. So it wasn’t toxic for him in 2016. I’m not sure that it will be in 2018 for the nominee. But that has yet to play out. I mean let’s talk about the candidates. Potentially on the Republican side, there’s David Craig, State Senator from Waukesha. Free shot for him. I expect him to get in. He’s a former Ryan staffer. Samantha Kerkman from the Kenosha area. A member of the state Assembly for a long time. She’s considering. I don’t know if she’ll get in or not but I think she’d be credible. And the final one is UW Regent Bryan Steil from Janesville, who absolutely I expect to get in.

Frederica Freyberg:

What do you make of the fact that Robin Vos however and Reince Priebus have both said no, they’re not going to do it?

Scot Ross:

I think they understand how toxic the environment is. I would be remiss if I didn’t note the one candidate who is actually in the race for the Republicans currently. Paul Nehlen who has been an avowed white supremacist and anti-Semite. He’s is going to be a part of this conversation. It is impossible for the media to keep him out of the discussion. He is a long-established candidate and that is unfortunate for the Republicans because he is so tied to Trump. He has been such a — he went after Ryan because he said Ryan wasn’t pro-Trump enough.

Frederica Freyberg:

How does that muddy this race?

Bill McCoshen:

Who knows if he stays in. Remember his battle was against Paul Ryan. He got 15% against Paul Ryan in the primary in 2016. So he wasn’t credible two years ago. I think he’s less credible in an open field. I’m not sure the media will pay as much attention to him. I think the three names I mentioned before, Steil, Kerkman and Craig, will be the front-runners of this race.

Frederica Freyberg:

What about the Dems?

Scot Ross:

I think the Dems have a spirited primary going on with two candidates from both sides of the district. They’re talking about the issues. They’re having an actual conversation in the 1st C.D. about issues that matter for Wisconsinites. That’s a really important thing because for so long there wasn’t that conversation.

Bill McCoshen:

Democrats are doing everything they can to rig this primary, just like they did for Hillary Clinton against Bernie Sanders. They want Randy Bryce to be the nominee. The truth is Randy Bryce is not liberal enough for that –or is too liberal for that district. And he’s a three-time loser. He lost the seat for state assembly. He lost the seat for the school board in Racine. He came in 7th out of 10. And then he lost a state senate race. This guy has never won before. Yet he’s their poster guy and they’re trying to knock Cathy Myers out of the race. So this is once again, Democrats are trying to rig the primary system.

Scot Ross:

I appreciate Bill’s insight into the Democratic primary given his long association with Democratic primaries.

Bill McCoshen:

You're welcome.

Scot Ross:

But let’s talk about the three Republicans beside Paul Nehlen. You’ve got Dave Craig was a Paul Ryan staffer, whose claim to fame is he did a bill that was so bad that even — related to guns that even Scott Walker wouldn’t sign onto it, which is the putting concealed weapons in schools. You’ve got Sam Kerkman who has raised about $120,000 after ten years in office. And you’ve got Bryan Steil, who is a UW Regent. Yeah, somebody who’s clinging to higher education is definitely the front-runner in a Republican primary.

Frederica Freyberg:

Meanwhile, Peter Barca says he’s considering it. What do you think of that?

Bill McCoshen:

I think it’s legitimate. I don’t think Randy Bryce is going to get this nomination. I think Democrats are going to look back and say, “Wow, this is a different playing field now. We have an open seat. Let’s get a credible candidate.” I think you have to look at Jim Kreuser, the county executive of Kenosha County. Cory Mason, the mayor of Racine.

Frederica Freyberg:

He’s already said no.

Bill McCoshen:

Peter Barca is another possibility. I think Randy Bryce has benefited from the uber-liberal money on the east and the west coast and I think that he’s been a useful tool for them up to this point in time. But their goal was to take down Paul Ryan, who’s no longer there.

Frederica Freyberg:

What do you think about Peter Barca?

Scot Ross:

I mean Peter Barca was the Assembly minority leader. He served his constituents well. I think Bill’s trying to concoct something out of nothing. That there’ cacophony and derision in the Democratic side. And I get it. That’s your job. But I think when push comes to shove, you’ve got two candidates who were in there for quite some time. One with some sizable resources and the other one with good resources as well. They both have great profiles for the district.

Frederica Freyberg:

So I kind of hear you saying that Peter Barca is not your pick?

Scot Ross:

I — you know, I always joke, I've written so many concession night speeches for Democrats in primaries that it’s on my resume as a skill set. So I don’t predict in primaries. For Representative Barca, he’d have to give up his seat to do it. Now that’s why Dave Craig has emerged as a real contender ’cause he doesn’t have to give up his state senate seat. He’s not up. Robin Vos has to give up his seat. Sam Kerkman would have to give up her seat. But I think that’s where you’re seeing a lot of Assembly people on the Republican side pass so far. Because again, if the 1st Congressional District is so dark red, Bill, as you assert, you would think people would be running to take that opportunity to get the $175,000 a year salary. ‘Cause again, Paul Ryan, one thing not to forget, in two years Paul Ryan is going to get a $79,000 a year annual pension for life paid for by people whose benefits he has been trying to cut his entire career.

Bill McCoshen:

The white men in the smoke-filled rooms are trying to rig this primary for Randy Bryce. Don’t count Cathy Myers out of that Democratic primary. This is the year of the woman. And she’s raised decent amount of money. She’s going to be heard.

Frederica Freyberg:

What does the fact that Paul Ryan is not running for re-election mean for Scott Walker, if anything?

Bill McCoshen:

I don’t think it means much. I suspect that Paul Ryan will still be a player in the 2018 elections and I'll tell you why. He’s got $11 million left in the bank. There’s no question in my mind. I’ve said on this program before that Donald Trump and Ron Johnson do not win in Wisconsin in 2016 without Ryan's money. He funded the infrastructure and I think he will be asked and he will deliver on that again this time around. So look for some of that $11 million to go to the Republican Party of Wisconsin to fund the infrastructure. He’s going to be important to Walker’s victory.

Scot Ross:

The troika of Bradley Foundation Gen Xers: Reince Priebus, Paul Ryan and Scott Walker. There’s only one left and it’s Scott Walker. And that’s going to be a challenge for him again because Paul Ryan’s leaving because Donald Trump is toxic for the general electorate. I think that’s where things are going. Mark my words. 2022 primary former Governor Scott Walker versus former House Speaker Paul Ryan duking it out for the U.S. Senate race.

[laughter]

Frederica Freyberg:

You don’t buy it that Paul Ryan is leaving because Donald Trump is toxic.

Bill McCoshen:

He's one of the guys that actually when he says he’s leaving to spend more time with his family, he’s actually being honest about it. This is a guy who is a family man. If you look on his Facebook site or any of his social media or if you know Paul Ryan at all which I do, loves to take his kids hunting or skiing or on different excursions on the weekends. But he’s tired of being a weekend dad. That’s a true statement.

Frederica Freyberg:

But who doesn’t love their family?

Bill McCoshen:

Well, a lot of them give up a lot of time with their family. They make a lot of sacrifices for the ability to serve the public. And in Paul Ryan’s case, he said 20 years is enough. It’s time to go back to the family.

Scot Ross:

Bill has a lot of insights, but I think that he would agree that Paul Ryan's plan had been to currently be sitting in his six years, being the vice president of the United States if things had gone Paul Ryan’s way. So do we think Paul Ryan would be suddenly leaving with two years left in his second term? Would he be leaving to spend more time with his family? I think not.

Frederica Freyberg:

We need to leave it there. Scot Ross, Bill McCoshen. Thank you.

Scot Ross, Bill McCoshen:

Thanks.

Frederica Freyberg:

We go now to the heart of Wisconsin's 1st District and a look ahead to the November election. As we just mentioned, two Democrats are already working the campaign trail in the district. “Here and Now” reporter Marisa Wojcik spoke with Cathy Myers in Janesville and Randy Bryce in Racine.

Paul Ryan:

And on that score, I think we have achieved a heck of a lot.

Marisa Wojcik:

When House Speaker Paul Ryan announced he would not be seeking re-election in the fall, the Democratic challengers to Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District were optimistic, but not surprised.

Cathy Myers:

My initial reaction was one of a feeling of opportunity.

Randy Bryce:

It had been a rumor for months. It wasn’t the first time I heard it. So I knew it was a possibility.

Cathy Myers:

We had some indication that there was some big news coming at one point or another. I didn’t think it was going to happen on a Wednesday morning at quarter to 8:00.

Marisa Wojcik:

Cathy Myers, a teacher, and Randy Bryce, a former iron worker, have been campaigning for months and are convinced the blue wave was behind Ryan's departure.

Cathy Myers:

I think Paul Ryan was running scared. I think he saw the writing on the wall and realized that he was going to face a huge challenge this year.

Randy Bryce:

But that’s why we got in. It was the goal when we got in last June was to repeal and replace Paul Ryan. And it’s great to see that we did push him out.

Marisa Wojcik:

Both Democrats disagree with Ryan on issues like health care and taxes.

Cathy Myers:

When Paul Ryan proposed the health care plan that he passed last year in the House and people realized that 48,900 of his own constituents would lose access to health care, they were appalled.

Randy Bryce:

After giving $1.5 trillion to people that don’t need that as a break, then saying we can’t afford where we’re at now because of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, saying we’re paying too much into that, calling them entitlements. Well these are things that people have paid into their entire lives.

Marisa Wojcik:

Myers and Bryce see Ryan's retirement as a bellwether for how this race is in Democrats’ favor.

Cathy Myers:

It's true there has been a history of Republicans winning in this district. But recent events like the retirement of Paul Ryan and also trends that we’re seeing nationally lead me to believe that we are in excellent position to take this seat.

Randy Bryce:

It's very winnable. It’s something that we’re looking forward to. If they’re anything close to the numbers we’ve seen for all the special elections, it’s going to be a win for us in November.

Marisa Wojcik:

Even with Ryan's announcement, Bryce and Myers are planning to maintain the campaign strategy they’ve already laid out.

Cathy Myers:

Our campaign strategy has always been about voter contact. That hasn’t changed a bit.

Randy Bryce:

As far as strategy, it’s all about reaching people, a people-powered campaign.

Cathy Myers:

We're going to have the strongest grassroots campaign in the country.

Randy Bryce:

All we have to do is get this momentum going and all this enthusiasm to make sure people make it to the polls in November.

Cathy Myers:

All of that energy is going to really help the momentum that we’ve already started in our — with our campaign. And it’s just going to add to it.

Marisa Wojcik:

Because of that energy, the Democrats are feeling the winds of change.

Randy Bryce:

Yesterday right after the announcement, I’m walking outside, just how beautiful the weather was. It was as if spring finally arrived in Wisconsin after a cold winter. Birds were chirping and I'd like to think that it wasn’t a coincidence.

Marisa Wojcik:

Until November, Democratic and Republican challengers will have to weather a contentious race.

Frederica Freyberg:

The Democratic primary election for candidates Myers and Bryce will be held on August 14th.

From the 1st Congressional District to the state capitol. Dozens of undergraduates from the UW System met this week to share their research with legislators and state leaders. The research ranged from gender bias among students to business and marketing strategies. And that is our program for tonight. I’m Frederica Freyberg. Have a great weekend.

Announcer:

Funding for “Here and Now” is provided, in part, by Friends of Wisconsin Public Television.

For more information on “Here and Now’s” 2018 election coverage, go to WisconsinVote.org.