FREDERICA FREYBERG:

A NEW STATEWIDE POLL REVEALS WANING APPROVAL AMONG WISCONSINITES FOR GOVERNOR WALKER AS WELL AS THE VERY LATEST ON HOW THE STATE SUPPORTS REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY CANDIDATES. CONTRIBUTING PRODUCER ANDY SOTH HAS THIS OVERVIEW OF THE LATEST WISCONSIN SURVEY POLL.

ANDY SOTH:

WITH SCOTT WALKER’S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN ENDING A MONTH AGO, CONSERVATIVE WRITERS ARE ASKING IF IT’S TIME TO WRITE THE GOVERNOR’S POLITICAL OBITUARY. MANY WISCONSIN VOTERS IT WOULD SEEM AGREE. ACCORDING TO THE WISCONSIN SURVEY 58% OF THOSE ASKED SAID WALKER’S PRESIDENTIAL RUN LEFT THEM WITH A NEGATIVE IMPRESSION OF THE GOVERNOR. EVEN MORE, TWO-THIRDS OF THE SURVEY FELT THE GOVERNOR’S RUN REFLECTED POORLY ON THE WHOLE STATE OF WISCONSIN. THESE SENTIMENTS MAY BE BEHIND A STRONG MAJORITY WHO WOULD RATHER THE GOVERNOR NOT SEEK A THIRD TERM. AMONG WALKER’S FORMER RIVALS FOR THE GOP NOMINATION, BEN CARSON LEADS THE PACK WITH 20% OF REPUBLICAN VOTERS SUPPORTING THE FORMER BRAIN SURGEON. TIED FOR A CLOSE SECOND ARE BUSINESSMAN AND REALITY SHOW STAR DONALD TRUMP AND FLORIDA SENATOR MARCO RUBIO, EACH AT 18%. TEXAS SENATOR TED CRUZ AND FORMER HP CEO CARLY FIORINA MAKE UP THE NEXT TIER, WITH 10% AND 8% SUPPORT RESPECTIVELY. AS FOR THE REST OF THE CROWDED FIELD, NO OTHER CANDIDATE TOPPED MORE THAN 3%. ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE, FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE HILLARY CLINTON HAS A FIVE-POINT LEAD OVER VERMONT SENATOR BERNIE SANDERS, WITH NO OTHER DEMOCRATS POLLING MORE THAN 1%. THE SURVEY THEN ASKED ABOUT SOME POTENTIAL HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCH-UPS FOR THE GENERAL ELECTION. HILLARY CLINTON DOES VERY WELL IN A POTENTIAL CONTEST WITH DONALD TRUMP WITH A LEAD THAT GOES TO 11. BEN CARSON OFFERS A STRONGER CHALLENGE WITH 45% TO CLINTON’S 49% IN THE SURVEY THAT HAS A MARGIN OF ERROR OR PLUS OR MINUS 4 POINTS. CLOSER TO HOME, SURVEY RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED ABOUT THE EXPECTED REMATCH BETWEEN SENATOR RON JOHNSON AND FORMER SENATOR RUSS FEINGOLD, WHO TODAY HOLDS A LEAD OF 51% TO 40% FOR JOHNSON. THEY SAY ELECTIONS ARE ABOUT THE FUTURE AND WISCONSINITES’ VIEW OF THE PRESENT COURSE SHOWS SOME CONCERNS. SURVEY TAKERS OVERWHELMINGLY EXPRESSED THE VIEW THAT BOTH THE STATE AND COUNTRY WERE HEADED IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. LIKEWISE THOUGHTS ON THE STATE’S ECONOMIC CONDITIONS REVEALED PESSIMISM, WITH 61% RATING THE ECONOMY AS EITHER NOT SO GOOD OR POOR. GOVERNOR SCOTT WALKER MAY BE TURNING HIS ATTENTION BACK TO THE STATE WITH A NEW LEGISLATIVE AGENDA, BUT STATE RESIDENTS CLEARLY HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT WHERE WISCONSIN IS HEADED AND SEE THE STATE AS EVEN MORE POLITICALLY DIVIDED.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

THAT WAS ANDY SOTH REPORTING. THE WISCONSIN SURVEY IS A PRODUCT OF THE ST. NORBERT COLLEGE STRATEGIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE. WISCONSIN PUBLIC RADIO AND TELEVISION ARE PARTNERS IN THE POLL. DR. WENDY SCATTERGOOD IS A MEMBER OF THE ST. NORBERT SURVEY TEAM. AND WENDY THANKS VERY MUCH FOR BEING HERE.

WENDY SCATTERGOOD:

THANKS FOR HAVING ME.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

WELL, SO IT WOULD APPEAR BY YOUR SURVEY RESULTS THAT GOVERNOR WALKER’S FAILED RUN FOR THE WHITE HOUSE REALLY CLOBBERED HIM HERE AT HOME. HE CERTAINLY SUSTAINED NEGATIVE PRESS OVER SPENDING, BEING AWAY FROM STATE AFFAIRS AND FOR GAFFES ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. HOW WOULD YOU INTERPRET HIS SLIDE?

WENDY SCATTERGOOD:

I THINK THAT’S PRETTY TYPICAL. WE HAVE A LOT OF GOVERNORS AND SENATORS RUNNING. AND THAT’S PRETTY TYPICAL, THAT THEM BEING AWAY FROM THE STATE HAS SOME NEGATIVE IMPACTS FOR THE PEOPLE OF THAT STATE. IT IS PRETTY LOW. THE LAST TIME WE HAD THIS KIND OF A LOW FOR HIS APPROVAL RATING WAS IN THE FALL OF ’11, AND THAT’S KIND OF WHEN THEY WERE GEARING UP FOR THE RECALL ELECTION. SO THAT PART IS A LITTLE BIT SURPRISING. BUT THERE’S A LOT OF THINGS RELATED TO HIS APPROVAL RATING.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

THE CURRENT CHOICES FOR REPUBLICAN PRIMARY CANDIDATES FOR PRESIDENT, CARSON AND TRUMP, THOSE TWO ARE ON TOP. JEB BUSH’S PLACE IS AT THE BACK OF THE PACK. WOULD YOU HAVE EXPECTED THIS KIND OF STATE OF AFFAIRS AMONG THESE MEN GOING INTO THIS CAMPAIGN?

WENDY SCATTERGOOD:

FIRST OF ALL, I THINK IT GOES ALONG WITH A LOT OF WHAT WE’RE SEEING IN MANY OF THE NATIONAL POLLS AT THIS POINT. AND I THINK AS WITH POLLS THAT ARE DONE AT THIS TIME IN WHAT WE CALL THE PREPRIMARY SEASON, I THINK THIS IS PRETTY COMMON. I WAS LOOKING BACK AT SOME OF OUR DATA THAT WE HAD FROM THE FALL OF ’11, AND WE DID HAVE ROMNEY AHEAD AND I THINK AT THAT POINT HE WAS REALLY TALKING ABOUT HIS BUSINESS CAREER, SO I THINK WE SEE SOME OF THOSE OVERTONES. AND HERMAN CAIN IF YOU REMEMBER CAME IN AT NUMBER TWO FOR THE FALL ’11 SURVEY. SO I THINK WE’RE SEEING SOME OF THOSE SIMILARITIES. IT’S NOT THAT SURPRISING THAT WE SEE SOME OF THE PEOPLE WHO ARE GRABBING A LOT OF THE MEDIA ATTENTION BE AHEAD IN THE POLLS. AND AS WE SAW ALSO IN THAT ELECTION, IT’S CALLED KIND OF FLAVOR OF THE MONTH, WHERE SOMEBODY WILL SORT OF PEAK AND THEN GO INTO A DOWN SLIDE FOR THESE PREPRIMARY MONTHS.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

MEANWHILE, CLINTON AND SANDERS ARE JUST FIVE POINTS APART. WHAT’S THAT ABOUT?

WENDY SCATTERGOOD:

YEAH. AND, YOU KNOW, CLINTON’S NUMBERS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY ARE IN THE NATIONAL POLLS, BUT SANDERS ACTUALLY DOES BETTER IN WISCONSIN THAN HE DOES IN SOME OF THE NATIONAL POLLS. AND CERTAINLY AMONG THE YOUNGER VOTERS, AS WE’VE SEEN NATIONALLY, IN OUR POLL, THE 18 TO 24-YEAR-OLDS, OF THOSE WHO ARE VOTING IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY, 100% OF THEM WERE VOTING FOR, AS THEY CALL HIM, “THE BERN,” SO THERE’S DEFINITELY THAT ASPECT OF IT. I THNK WE HAVE A POLITICAL CULTURE IN THIS STATE OF BEING A LITTLE BIT MORE FOR THE PEOPLE WHO ARE STANDING UP FOR WHAT THEY BELIEVE IN, YOU KNOW, SORT OF A FIGHTING BOB LA FOLLETTE TRADITION, AND I THINK THAT’S PROBABLY WHY HE’S DOING BETTER IN THIS STATE THAN NATIONALLY.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

ONE RESULT MENTIONED THAT WISCONSIN RESIDENTS SEE THE STATE AS EVEN MORE POLITICALLY DIVIDED. HOW IS THAT EVEN POSSIBLE?

WENDY SCATTERGOOD:

YEAH. I MEAN, THIS IS CERTAINLY A LOT OF THAT’S PARTISAN. WHEN YOU BREAK THAT ANSWER DOWN BY DEMOCRATS, THEY CERTAINLY ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO SAY THAT THAN ARE REPUBLICANS. BUT EVEN AMONG REPUBLICANS, YOU FIND A GOOD PORTION OF THEM SAY THAT THEY FEEL LIKE THE STATE IS MORE DIVIDED. AND THAT’S REALLY INTERESTING BECAUSE WHEN YOU CORRELATE THAT WITH APPROVAL RATINGS AND SOME OF THE OTHER ASPECTS, LIKE EVEN NATIONALLY WHO THEY’RE GOING TO VOTE FOR, THE PEOPLE WHO THINK WE’RE MORE DIVIDED ARE MORE LIKELY TO GO WITH SOME OF THOSE OUTSIDER CANDIDATES AND BE MORE NEGATIVE WITH THE PEOPLE IN THEIR OWN PARTY.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

WENDY SCATTERGOOD, WE NEED TO LEAVE IT THERE. THANKS VERY MUCH FOR YOUR WORK.

WENDY SCATTERGOOD:

THANKS FOR HAVING ME.