Zac Schultz:

It’s a Thursday night, and the congregation at Tabernacle Community Baptist Church in Milwaukee is on their feet. But in between the sermon and the songs the Reverend Don Darius Butler has a warning.

Don Darius Butler:

We dare not be asleep at this important election.

Zac Schultz:

He gives it a religious connection.

Don Darius Butler:

There's some new tricks, but it's the same old devil.

Zac Schultz:

One trick Reverend Butler is talking about is the end to weekend absentee voting, a change enacted by Republicans that will be in effect for the first time this fall.

Mandela Barnes:

And they took that away in hopes of demobilizing congregations from getting their members to the polls.

Zac Schultz:

Democrat Mandela Barnes represents this area in the state assembly and has been speaking at churches about the changes.

Mandela Barnes:

–make sure people are registered to vote. C, make sure people show up to vote.

Zac Schultz:

In past elections, a program called Souls to the Polls lined up buses to bring worshipers directly from Sunday service to city hall so they could vote absentee. They’re trying to replicate the program on week nights.

Mandela Barnes:

–unless they know, we also worship on Wednesdays too.

Zac Schultz:

The limitation on absentee voting is part of the larger battle over voter turnout. Wisconsin is a swing state, and which way it swings depends on which party can get their supporters to the polls. Listen to the party leaders.

Brian Schimming:

The Republican party’s focus is going to be on turning out our voters and getting to people in the middle.

Mike Tate:

It’s about winning the people in the middle and turning out more Democrats to vote.

Zac Schultz:

Both sides have the same game plan, but over the last few elections the middle has disappeared. The number of undecided and persuadable voters has shrunk so much that turning out the base is the most important factor. The problem for the parties is this is a midterm election, meaning the president is not on the ballot.

Barry Burden:

In a presidential year I think there’s an expectation and a kind of duty that's been built in.

Zac Schultz:

Barry Burden is a University of Wisconsin political science professor. He notes, Wisconsin is generally second in the nation in turnout for presidential elections, reaching 70% in 2012. But in midterms, when Wisconsin elects the governor, turnout drops to 50% or less.

Barry Burden:

It’s possible some voters are not even aware there’s an election happening in a midterm year.

Zac Schultz:

We tracked the number of votes cast in Wisconsin’s three largest counties since 2002. Milwaukee, Dane and Waukesha counties also happen to be the core areas of support for Republican and Democratic parties. Milwaukee County has the most votes in each election, but it also the largest swings up and down. The number of votes jumped 47% from the 2006 gubernatorial election to the 2008 presidential election, then fell 28% in 2010, before jumping up 44% in 2012.

Peter Barca:

I have people tell me regularly, oh, I vote in every election, Peter. And I’ve got their sheet there, and they vote in every presidential election.

Zac Schultz:

But the drop-off isn’t equal between Republicans and Democrats.

Barry Burden:

In midterm elections you get more of a drop-off among young voters, among urban voters, among minority voters.

Zac Schultz:

Professor Burden says things like your income, your education and if you own a home can predict whether you vote in every election.

Barry Burden:

The factors that make you a likely voter, the ones I mentioned, being older, educated, higher income, belonging to a church, being married, are also things that correlate at least loosely with being more Republican.

Zac Schultz:

We’ve broken down which party gained and lost the most votes, and that alone can predict who won the election. For example, in 2008 Milwaukee County cast 475,000 votes. In 2010, that dropped off by 134,000. 82% of the drop-off came from Democrats. In Waukesha County the vote total dropped by 44,000, but Republicans were only 24% of the drop-off. The other 76% of the drop-off was from Democrats. It shouldn’t be a surprise Scott Walker won. But in 2012, Milwaukee County cast an additional 155,000 votes, with a 50% increase among Democrats. In Waukesha County turnout was also up, but only 21% higher among Republicans. President Obama won with 53% of the vote.

Michelle Obama:

There’s a reason why we won. We won because we showed up and we voted.

Zac Schultz:

Michelle Obama’s words at a Mary Burke rally were simple, but true.

Michelle Obama:

Because when we stay home, they win.

Zac Schultz:

The same is true for Republicans. Democratic governor, Jim Doyle, won in 2002 and 2006, when Republican turnout was down. So what’s the key?

Barry Burden:

Well, enthusiasm matters a lot. People have to be interested and take some responsibility for themselves to get to the polls.

Tom Barrett:

Voter awareness, enthusiasm always trumps everything.

Zac Schultz:

The best way to get your base to turn out to vote is to make sure they are excited to vote.

Brian Schimming:

In our case, with our folks, because they love Scott Walker, they’re going to turn out.

Scott Walker:

The great news is with your help, we can do it.

Zac Schultz:

Governor Scott Walker inspires voters on both sides.

Mike Tate:

There’s people that are passionately for Scott Walker. There are people passionately against Scott Walker.

Zac Schultz:

The question is how many Democrats are enthusiastic to vote for Mary Burke.

Mary Burke:

A candidate is only as strong as the people that are standing right there with them.

Zac Schultz:

Another method to boost enthusiasm is the campaign surrogate. Mary Burke may not fill the Wisconsin Center in Milwaukee on a Monday afternoon, but Michelle Obama does.

Michelle Obama:

I love our dear friend, the next governor of Wisconsin, Mary Burke!

Zac Schultz:

Governor Walker has his own famous friends.

Chris Christie:

My friend, Governor Scott Walker.

Zac Schultz:

New Jersey governor, Chris Christie, campaigned with Governor Walker in Hudson in September. Their visit to a campaign center highlighted just what the surrogates are here to do, fire up the troops.

Chris Christie:

You are the ones who are going to decide this election. And I don’t mean by your vote. We know we have your vote or you wouldn’t be standing here today. It's how hard are you willing to work to get other like-minded people out?

Zac Schultz:

The real get-out-to-vote work is done by volunteers who knock on doors and make phone calls.

Woman:

Great, thanks so much for you're support.

Scott walker:

I love the signs.

Zac Schultz:

And Governor Walker has made a point of thanking them in person.

Scott Walker:

And so many of you here have helped us out for so long. We appreciate that. Going door to door talking to your neighbors makes an incredible impact.

Michelle Obama:

We need you out there every day.

Zac Schultz:

This part of voter turnout is called the ground game and it’s where Democrats have excelled.

Michelle Obama:

We need you knocking on doors.

Mike Tate:

We’re investing, you know, well over seven figures into making sure we turn out Democratic base voters, people that otherwise might not come to the polls.

Zac Schultz:

But that brings us back to Tabernacle Baptist Community Church, where they’re trying to figure out how to overcome the end of weekend absentee voting.

Don Darius Butler:

We’re trying to overcome what is an impediment to our members exercising the franchise.

Zac Schultz:

Republicans say the changes to absentee voting were about fairness.

Robin Vos:

All we did was standardize it. We've now given and said, you can make it work for your municipality with a certain number so nobody has an unfair advantage.

Chris Larson:

It’s not an accident. Oh, gosh, oh, does that dampen turnout in the highest African-American community in the state? Oh, oops. They were doing this on purpose.

Zac Schultz:

Midterm turnout is already a problem in this neighborhood. The Milwaukee ward that holds Tabernacle Baptist votes 95% or better for Democrats. But if you look at the number of votes in the last 12 years, turnout drops by 50% in gubernatorial elections. That’s 500 votes in just these few city blocks. Multiply that across more than 327 wards in Milwaukee and you can see the outcome of the election hangs on turnout.

Mary Burke:

This is going to be a tight race and every single vote is going to matter.

Scott Walker:

We believe, though, the grassroots will make the difference, that people going door to door, making contacts with their neighbors will ultimately be the factor in this election.

Don Darius Butler:

People sitting out will really help determine whoever is going to win either way.