Here & Now

UW Researcher Explains Possible Impacts Of El NiĚąo

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

WISCONSIN WILL SEE SOME OF ITS HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER THIS WEEKEND AND LOOKING AHEAD, WEATHER AROUND THE WORLD COULD FEEL THE IMPACT OF A SUPER EL NINO FORMING RIGHT NOW IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. UW RESEARCHERS IN THE DEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCES ARE WORKING WITH PARTNERS WORLDWIDE TRACKING THE WEATHER PHENOMENON AND ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS. ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR DAN VIMONT IS PART OF THE CENTER FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH. I TALKED WITH HIM THIS WEEK ABOUT THE IMPACT OF EL NINO AND STARTED BY ASKING JUST WHAT IS EL NINO.

DAN VIMONT:

EL NINO IS A PHENOMENON THAT OCCURS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND REALLY OVER THE ENTIRE GLOBE BECAUSE ITS IMPACTS ARE GLOBAL. AND IT’S BEST MEASURED BY THE TEMPERATURE ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. SO WE SEE HERE THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL, SO WHERE WE SEE THESE RED COLORS, IT IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL. AND THIS IS OVER THE LAST WEEK. AND WHAT WE SEE IS THIS WARM TEMPERATURE RIGHT ALONG THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC HERE. IT’S TWO TO THREE DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN USUAL. THAT DOESN’T SEEM LIKE MUCH BUT YOU HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS THE BIGGEST OCEAN BASIN IN THE ENTIRE GLOBE. THIS INVOLVES A COMPLETE REORGANIZATION OF THE ENTIRE CLIMATE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

SO I’VE HEARD THAT THIS PARTICULAR EL NINO THAT IS UPON US COULD BE A, QUOTE, MONSTER. SO WHAT COULD THAT MEAN FOR KIND OF WEATHER CONDITIONS GLOBALLY?

DAN VIMONT:

THAT’S A GOOD QUESTION. SO THIS IS A BIG ONE. TWO TO THREE DEGREES IS A HUGE EL NINO. THIS IS COMPARABLE TO THE ’82-’83 OR ’97-’98 EL NINO EVENT. SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AROUND THE GLOBE? THERE ARE HUGE IMPACT IN THE TROPICS. FOR EXAMPLE IN INDONESIA THERE TENDS TO BE A DELAY OF THE MONSOON SEASON WHICH HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR RICE PRODUCTION THERE. OVER NORTH AMERICA, WHAT TENDS TO HAPPEN IS THE JET STREAM IN THE PACIFIC IS EXTENDED DURING AN EL NINO EVENT AND THAT TENDS TO BRING WETTER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND USUALLY WARMER AND DRYER CONDITIONS TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

WHEN WE TALK ABOUT WETTER CONDITIONS, DO YOU HAVE A GAUGE AS TO HOW WET?

DAN VIMONT:

NOT A GOOD ONE. SO THINK OF EL NINO LIKE LOADING THE DICE. SO ANY YEAR MAY BE WET OR DRY, BUT WHEN AN EL NINO HAPPENS THE CHANCES ARE IT’S GOING TO BE A LITTLE MORE WET FOR SAY CALIFORNIA AND SO FORTH. NOW, THAT’S GOOD IF THAT WETNESS COMES AS SORT OF PROLONGED PRECIPITATION. BUT IF IT COMES IN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, IT’S NOT GOOD FOR ANYONE. WHERE IT REALLY MATTERS IS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIGHT NOW. PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS INCREDIBLY DRY RIGHT NOW AND THE FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED DRY AND CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS. THAT’S A BAD STATE OF AFFAIRS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

AND FOR US IN THE MIDWEST?

DAN VIMONT:

AND SO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN DISCUSSED, BUT THEY’RE NOT REALLY WELL-PRONOUNCED OVER THE MIDWEST. SO I’M RELUCTANT TO MAKE STRONG FORECASTS ABOUT HOW EL NINO WILL IMPACT CONDITIONS IN WISCONSIN OR THE MIDWEST. WE TEND TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN USUAL, BUT, AGAIN, THAT LOADING THE DICE ANALOGY, IT’S NOT LOADED VERY MUCH AROUND HERE. SO I’M RELUCTANT TO MAKE STRONG PREDICTIONS.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

WHEN WE TALK ABOUT IMPACTS LIKE ON RICE PRODUCTION IN INDONESIA, YOU AND PEOPLE IN YOUR DEPARTMENT ACTUALLY WORK WITH GLOBAL ECONOMISTS TO TRY TO GET AHEAD OF THAT?

DAN VIMONT:

THAT’S RIGHT. SO EL NINO, ONE OF THE GREAT THINGS ABOUT IT, IS THAT IT’S PREDICTABLE SEVERAL MONTHS IN ADVANCE. OUR KNOWLEDGE OF THE STATE OF EL

NINO RIGHT NOW HAS VERY GOOD PREDICTIVE SKILL, OUT THROUGH THE WINTER. AND ECONOMISTS CAN USE THAT TO PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL CHANGES IN RICE PRODUCTION. SO WE WORK WITH ECONOMISTS AT STANFORD AND WITH THE BUREAU OF AGRICULTURE IN INDONESIA TO TRY TO HELP THEM PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF EL NINO.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

NOW, DOES THE WARMING OF THE SEA SURFACE INVOLVED WITH EL NINO HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH CLIMATE CHANGE?

DAN VIMONT:

RIGHT NOW THE EL NINO EVENT IS — EL NINO HAPPENS ON ITS OWN, WHETHER CLIMATE CHANGE IS OCCURRING OR NOT. AS OUR CLIMATE DOES CHANGE, IT MAY AFFECT THE STATISTICS OF EL NINO. THE PROBLEM IS IS THAT EL NINO IS INCREDIBLY SENSITIVE TO SUBTLE VARIATIONS IN THE MEAN STATE, AND SO WE MAY NOT KNOW WHETHER OR NOT CHANGES IN EL NINO ARE DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE OR WHETHER THEY’RE JUST NATURAL VARIATIONS. EACH EVENT IS DIFFERENT THAN THE NEXT. SO IT MAY BE DECADES OR EVEN CENTURIES BEFORE WE KNOW.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

WHY IS IT IMPORTANT TO TRACK THIS?

DAN VIMONT:

EL NINO HAS ENORMOUS ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND REALLY THE GLOBE, ESPECIALLY IN THE TROPICS, AND IT’S CRITICAL THAT WE CAN TRACK THE ONGOING STATE OF EL NINO JUST SO THAT WE CAN HELP PEOPLE PREPARE FOR IT. RIGHT NOW ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT TOOLS WE HAVE FOR THAT IS THE TAO ARRAY – THE TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE OCEAN ARRAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ONE OF THE PROBLEMS IS THAT IS NO LONGER — THE FUNDING FOR THAT IS INSECURE. LAST YEAR, FOR EXAMPLE, A COUPLE OF KEY BUOYS WERE NOT PRODUCING

INFORMATION AND SO WE MISSED LARGE STRETCHES OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MONITORING.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

YOU HAVE DESCRIBED EL NINO AS AN AMAZING PHENOMENON IN OUR CLIMATE SYSTEM. WHY IS IT AMAZING?

DAN VIMONT:

WELL, IT’S AMAZING BECAUSE I STUDY IT. IT’S SUPER EXCITING. EL NINO IS THE BIGGEST THING THAT CAN HAPPEN TO OUR CLIMATE SYSTEM ASIDE FROM THE ANNUAL CYCLE. IT INVOLVES A COMPLETE REORGANIZATION OF THE ENTIRE TROPICAL PACIFIC AS WELL AS IMPACTS AROUND THE GLOBE. IT’S A FANTASTIC EVENT TO STUDY. IT’S ALSO A FANTASTIC OPPORTUNITY FOR US TO HELP PEOPLE OUT THROUGH ITS PREDICTABILITY AND USE THAT INFORMATION TO MINIMIZE THE IMPACTS TO OUR SOCIETY.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

ALRIGHT DAN VIMONT. THANKS VERY MUCH.

DAN VIMONT:

YEAH.