Here & Now

Trump Succeeding Despite GOP Backlash

WHAT A TRUMP WEEK. SUPER TUESDAY VICTORIES, ATTACKS FROM THE POLITICAL MAINSTREAM, ANOTHER WILD DEBATE. WE GO OVER THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY WITH UW-MADISON JOURNALSIM PROFESSOR MICHAEL WAGNER. THANKS FOR BEING HERE.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

MY PLEASURE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

FIRST REACTION TO LAST NIGHT’S WILD DEBATE.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

AT TIMES IT SEEMED LIKE WE WERE IN SOME KIND OF ALTERNATIVE UNIVERSE. AT ONE POINT ALL THREE PEOPLE WERE YELLING AT EACH OTHER. AT ANOTHER POINT THE FRONTRUNNER FOR THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION FOR PRESIDENT APPEARED TO MAKE A REFERENCE TO A PART OF HIS ANATOMY THAT YOU NORMALLY DON’T USE AS A QUALIFICATION TO BE PRESIDENT. IT WAS A VERY STRANGE NIGHT.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

OFF THE RAILS POTENTIALLY.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

YEAH.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

SO SUDDENLY THE SO-CALLED REPUBLICAN ESTABLISHMENT, AS WE’VE SAID NAMES LIKE MITT ROMNEY, JOHN MCCAIN, APPEAR TO WANT DONALD TRUMP TO GET OUT AND NOT GET THE NOMINATION. BUT OUR QUESTION IS WHY SO LATE IN THE GAME?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

THAT’S A GREAT QUESTION. I’M PERSONALLY VERY SURPRISED THAT DONALD TRUMP HAS LASTED AS LONG AS HE HAS. AND NOW HE’S IN A POSITION WHERE HE MAY WELL BE THE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE. AND I THINK THE REASON IT TOOK SO LONG WAS THAT YOU HAD SO MANY CANDIDATES RUNNING. AND SO WHEN YOU HAD 17 PEOPLE RUNNING, EVERYBODY’S TRYING TO GET NOTICED. AND THEY FOUND OUT RIGHT AWAY IF I TURN MY ATTENTION TO DONALD TRUMP, HE TAKES ME DOWN. AND SO JEB BUSH, BEN CARSON, MARCO RUBIO, TED CRUZ WEREN’T GOING AFTER TRUMP FOR A LONGEST TIME. AND ONCE THEY STARTED TO – ONCE BUSH STARTED TO ATTACK TRUMP, HE TOOK IT FROM TRUMP. AND ONCE RUBIO STARTED TO ATTACK TRUMP, HE GOT CALLED LITTLE MARCO OVER AND OVER AGAIN LAST NIGHT. THAT KIND OF STUFF HAS REALLY KEPT PEOPLE FROM WANTING TO WASTE THEIR TIME ATTACKING TRUMP. BUT NOW TRUMP HAS ADVANCED SO FAR THAT IT MAY BE TOO LATE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

SPEAKING OF THESE CRITICISMS FROM THE SO-CALLED ESTABLISHMENT REPUBLICANS, WHAT’S YOUR SENSE OF WHETHER THIS IS HELPING TRUMP OR HURTING HIM?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

THAT’S A GREAT QUESTION. I THINK THAT IT IS HELPING TRUMP WITH HIS SUPPORTERS. BECAUSE HE CAN SAY, SEE, THE ESTABLISHMENT IS REALLY RATTLED BY WHAT WE’RE DOING HERE. JUST STAY WITH ME FOR A LITTLE WHILE. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ESTABLISHMENT FOLKS MIGHT SAY WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF CHANCES TO STOP THIS PERSON. AND THERE’S EVENTUALLY GOING TO BE ENORMOUS PRESSURE ON TWO OF THE THREE KIND OF REMAINING ESTABLISHMENT FOLKS FROM JOHN KASICH, MARCO RUBIO AND IF WE WANT TO CONSIDER TED CRUZ ESTABLISHMENT AS WELL. TWO OF THOSE THREE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO DROP OUT AT SOME POINT IF THEY WANT TO STOP DONALD TRUMP FROM BEING THE NOMINEE DURING THE CONVENTIONAL PROCESS WHICH IS TO SAY BEFORE THE CONVENTION COMES.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

SPEAKING OF THAT, WHAT’S YOUR SENSE OF THE POTENTIAL OF A SO-CALLED BROKERED CONVENTION?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

WELL, THE STANDARD POLITICAL SCIENTIST ANSWER FROM A PERSON LIKE ME IS THAT’S NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN, BUT THIS YEAR IT’S POSSIBLE. THE REASONS THAT IT ARE POSSIBLE, THE REPUBLICANS HAVE DIFFERENT RULES FOR DIFFERENT PRIMARIES. UPCOMING YOU HAVE A BUNCH OF DIFFERENT RACES ON TUESDAY. FLORIDA, OHIO AND I BELIEVE NORTH CAROLINA ARE WINNER TAKE ALL. ILLINOIS AND OTHER PLACES ARE PROPORTIONATELY AWARDED. IF MARCO RUBIO IS ABLE TO WIN FLORIDA WHERE HE’S FROM AND JOHN KASICH WINS OHIO, WHERE HE’S FROM. THEY TAKE ALL THOSE DELEGATES. GOOD FOR THEM. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PROPEL THEM AHEAD OF TRUMP. AND THERE’S SO MANY PROPORTIONAL AWARDS STILL GOING FORTH IT’S GOING TO BE REALLY HARD FOR ANYBODY TO OVERTAKE TRUMP BEFORE THE CONVENTION.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

WHAT ABOUT A THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATE? IF ESTABLISHMENT REPUBLICANS WANTED TO CHOOSE ONE, WHO MIGHT THAT BE?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

THAT’S A GOOD QUESTION. WOULD PEOPLE WHO WOULD BE A CREDIBLE PERSON BE WILLING TO RUN AS AN INDEPENDENT OR A THIRD PARTY PERSON AND NOT AS A REPUBLICAN? I THINK MOST PEOPLE LOOK TO SOMEONE LIKE NEW YORK MAYOR MIKE BLOOMBERG. BUT IT’S NOT AT ALL CLEAR THAT HE WOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE ENOUGH VOTES FROM THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE TO BE SUCCESSFUL. AND THE DEMOCRATS ARE CHOMPING AT THE BIT I THINK TO RUN AGAINST TRUMP. THEY MAY UNDERESTIMATE HIM AT THEIR PERIL. BUT CERTAINLY THEY HAVE A LOT OF ADVANTAGES IN STATES THAT BARACK OBAMA WON IN 2012.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

WHAT DO YOU KNOW – I’VE NOT BEEN THROUGH ONE I’M SURE – BUT WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT A BROKERED CONVENTION? HOW DOES THAT WORK? DELEGATES ARE JUST CRAZY ALL OVER THE PLACE?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE, PEOPLE WHO CAST–THE STATES WHERE THEIR VOTES WERE CAST BEFORE MARCH 14 ARE BOUND TO VOTE FOR THAT CANDIDATE IN THE FIRST VOTE AT A CONVENTION. SO IF THE FIRST BALLOT GOES AND SAY DONALD TRUMP DOESN’T GET WHAT HE NEEDS TO WIN, THEN THOSE DELEGATES ARE RELEASED AND THEN IT’S A FREE-FOR-ALL. THEN THEY’LL BE LOTS OF WHAT ARE CALLED WHIPS. TRYING TO WHIP UP THE VOTE TO TRY TO COUNT THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO WOULD SUPPORT THIS CANDIDATE VERSUS THAT CANDIDATE. AND YOU COULD HAVE SEVERAL BALLOTS. THE THING ABOUT A BROKERED CONVENTION IS THERE’S NO BROKER. IT’S JUST DEAL-MAKING AND CASES TO BE MADE THAT THIS IS THE PERSON WHO THE PARTY OUGHT TO NOMINATE AND RUN AGAINST PRESUMABLY HILLARY CLINTON OR MAYBE BERNIE SANDERS.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

WE’LL SEE WHETHER THAT HAPPENS. MICHAEL WAGENER, THANKS VERY MUCH.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

MY PLEASURE.