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FREDERICA FREYBERG:
WISCONSIN’S VOTER I.D. LAW IS GETTING SOME OF THE BLAME FOR LOW TURNOUT NUMBERS IN THE LAST WEEK’S ELECTION. GOVERNOR SCOTT WALKER IS QUOTED AS SAYING, IT’S A LOAD OF CRAP” THAT THE LAW SUPPRESSED TURNOUT. OUR NEXT GUEST AIMS TO FIND OUT. HE’S UW MADISON POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR KEN MAYER, WHO’S EMBARKING ON A RESEARCH PROJECT TO GET TO THE BOTTOM OF THE NEAR 20-YEAR LOW TURNOUT IN THE STATE. THANKS A LOT FOR BEING HERE.
KEN MAYER:
GOOD TO BE WITH YOU.
FREDERICA FREYBERG:
SO I UNDERSTAND THAT AT LEAST 600 VOTERS WERE GIVEN THESE PROVISIONAL BALLOTS FOR SHOWING UP AT THE POLLS WITHOUT USABLE I.D.s IN WISCONSIN AND THAT NUMBER IS EXPECTED TO GROW AS CLERKS ACROSS THE STATE REPORT IN. BUT THOSE NUMBERS WOULDN’T HAVE TIPPED THE RESULTS. STILL, WHAT’S YOUR REACTION TO THE FACT THAT HUNDREDS OF PROVISIONAL BALLOTS WERE GIVEN?
KEN MAYER:
THOSE EXAMPLES OF THE I.D. PROVISIONAL BALLOTS, WHICH IS SOMETHING THAT HAD NEVER HAPPENED IN WISCONSIN BEFORE IN PREVIOUS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. WE WOULD HAVE 80, 100 OR SO AND IT WAS USUALLY FOR PEOPLE WHO COULDN’T VERIFY THEIR ADDRESS. MOST OF THOSE PEOPLE WILL ACTUALLY NOT HAVE THEIR COUNTS COUNTED. SOME OF THEM MIGHT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CURE THEIR BALLOTS BY THE FRIDAY AFTER THE ELECTION BUT TYPICALLY ABOUT 60% TO 70% OF THOSE TYPES OF BALLOTS ARE NOT COUNTED. THOSE ARE PEOPLE WHO WERE FLAT OUT PREVENTED FROM VOTING BECAUSE OF THE VOTER I.D. LAW. AND WHAT THAT ACTUALLY DOESN’T CAPTURE IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WERE PEOPLE WHO DIDN’T EVEN BOTHER GOING TO THE POLLS BECAUSE THEY DIDN’T THINK THEY HAD AN I.D. AND DIDN’T THINK THE ONES THAT THEY HAD WOULD ALLOW THEM TO VOTE. AND THAT’S SOMETHING THAT’S VERY DIFFICULT TO MEASURE AND THAT’S ONE OF THE THINGS WE’RE TRYING TO GET AT IN THIS STUDY.
FREDERICA FREYBERG:
BECAUSE IN MILWAUKEE COUNTY 41,000 FEWER PEOPLE VOTED COMPARED TO 2012, OR IN THE CITY OF MILWAUKEE, AND THE CLERK THERE IS PARTLY BLAMING VOTER I.D., WITH THAT VERY IDEA THAT YOU JUST EXPRESSED, MAYBE IT’S NOT THAT THEY GOT TO THE POLL AND DIDN’T HAVE IT, BUT THEY JUST SAID THIS IS TOO BIG A BARRIER.
KEN MAYER:
THAT CONCLUSION THAT THE CHAIR OF THE ELECTIONS COMMISSION IN MILWAUKEE MADE IS BASED ON HIS VIEW OF THE WARD LEVEL TURNOUT. THAT THE TURNOUT VARIED AND WAS ACTUALLY LOWER THAN OTHER PARTS OF THE CITY IN THE AREAS WHERE YOU HAD HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF THE POOREST CITIZENS IN MILWAUKEE. HOMELESS PEOPLE WITHOUT A FIXED ADDRESS. WE KNOW FROM OTHER ANALYSES THAT HAVE BEEN DONE IN OTHER STATES THAT VOTER I.D. DOES LOWER TURNOUT. IT LOWERS TURNOUT IN WAYS THAT YOU WOULD EXPECT. PEOPLE WHO DON’T HAVE A DRIVER’S LICENSE OR AN I.D. THEY CAN’T VOTE. EVEN IF THERE IS A PROCESS BY WHICH THEY CAN OBTAIN A SPECIAL VOTER I.D., IT’S CUMBERSOME AND PEOPLE OFTEN HAVE TO TRAVEL LONG DISTANCES TO AN INCONVENIENT TIME AND LOCATION.
FREDERICA FREYBERG:
EXPERT COURT TESTIMONY IN VOTER I.D. LAWSUITS TALK ABOUT 300,000 PEOPLE NOT HAVING ADEQUATE I.D. DOES THAT NUMBER STILL HOLD?
KEN MAYER:
PROBABLY. THAT NUMBER WAS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS I DID OF THE STATEWIDE VOTER REGISTRATION LIST WHICH IS ALL THE REGISTERED VOTERS. I FOUND ABOUT 330,000 OF THEM DIDN’T MATCH INTO THE DATA IN THE DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION. THE EXPERT ON THE OTHER SIDE ARGUED THAT THE NUMBER WAS LOWER. HIS NUMBER WAS PROBABLY 150,000, 160,000. BUT THERE’S NO DOUBT THAT THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DON’T SHOW UP AS HAVING A DRIVER’S LICENSE.
FREDERICA FREYBERG:
I DON’T WANT TO GIVE SHORT SHRIFT TO THE RESEARCH YOU’RE EMBARKING ON. HOW WILL THAT PROCEED?
KEN MAYER:
THE STUDY THAT I’M DOING FOR TURNOUT, WE'RE ACTUALLY GOING TO DO A SURVEY OF REGISTRANTS WHO DIDN’T VOTE. ONE OF THE THINGS THAT CLERKS ENTER INTO THE DATABASE IS VOTER HISTORY. SO WE’LL BE ABLE TO LOOK AND IDENTIFY WHETHER SOMEONE VOTED OR NOT. WE’RE GOING TO DO A SURVEY OF PEOPLE WHO DIDN’T VOTE AND REALLY TRY TO GET AT ARE THEY STILL ELIGIBLE TO VOTE, HAVE THEY MOVED OUT OF STATE, DO THEY HAVE AN I.D., WHAT WERE THE REASONS THEY DIDN’T VOTE. AND THERE HAVE BEEN OTHER KIND OF SIMILAR STUDIES, BUT NOT ONE LIKE THIS THAT REALLY TARGETED CITYWIDE OR COUNTYWIDE. WE’LL BE DOING IT BOTH IN MILWAUKEE COUNTY AND DANE COUNTY, TRYING TO REALLY NAIL DOWN WHAT THE EMPIRICAL EFFECT IS ON INDIVIDUALS.
FREDERICA FREYBERG:
WHEN MIGHT YOU HAVE THE RESULTS?
KEN MAYER:
WELL, THE EXPECTATION WITH THE AMOUNT OF DATA THAT’S FLOATING AROUND THE ELECTIONS, PEOPLE WANT TO SEE THE RESULTS RIGHT AWAY. THIS PART OF THE SURVEY WILL GO INTO THE FIELD IN JANUARY. DATA COLLECTION WILL CONTINUE PROBABLY THROUGH MARCH. WE’RE HOPING TO HAVE SOME PRELIMINARY RESULTS AVAILABLE BY LATE SPRING OR EARLY SUMMER.
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