UW journalism professor Michael Wagner said the current presidential primary is unusual because Donald Trump is doing well despite little allegiance to Republican orthodoxy. On the Democratic side, both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are trying to position themselves as progressives. Wisconsin's primary isn't until April, but Wagner said many candidates may yet remain in the race by then.
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UW Expert Calls Presidential Primary 'Peculiar'
FREDERICA FREYBERG:
AS VOTERS IN WISCONSIN PREPARE FOR THE POLLS, IT’S FULL STEAM AHEAD ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL FOR THE CANDIDATES. IN THE RACE FOR PRESIDENT, THIS WEEK’S IOWA CAUCUSES ARE IN THE REAR VIEW, WITH THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY ON TUESDAY AND THE NEVADA AND SOUTH CAROLINA BEFORE SUPER TUESDAY MARCH FIRST. WISCONSIN’S PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY IS APRIL 5. WILL WE STILL MATTER? WE TURNED TO UW MADISON JOURNALISM PROFESSOR AND ELECTIONS EXPERT MICHAEL WAGNER. AND THANKS FOR BEING HERE.
MICHAEL WAGNER:
MY PLEASURE.
FREDERICA FREYBERG:
SO WHAT ABOUT THAT QUESTION? WON’T IT ALL KIND OF BE WRAPPED UP BY THEN, ESPECIALLY WITH CANDIDATES CALLING IT QUITS ALONG THE WAY?
MICHAEL WAGNER:
A LOT MORE PEOPLE WILL CALL IT QUITS BY THEN. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW PEOPLE DROP OUT ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE AFTER NEW HAMPSHIRE OR SOUTH CAROLINA AND A FEW MORE AFTER SUPER TUESDAY. BUT THERE STILL COULD BE A BIT OF A SLOG FOR THREE OR FOUR AND MAYBE SOME PEOPLE WHO ARE STILL JUST IN IT BECAUSE THEY HAVE AN ISSUE THEY WANT TO DISCUSS. BUT I WOULDN’T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THREE OR FOUR PEOPLE STILL COMPETING PRETTY HARD AROUND THE TIME THAT OUR PRIMARY COMES AROUND.
FREDERICA FREYBERG:
HOW IS WISCONSIN REGARDED IN TERMS OF ITS IMPORTANCE?
MICHAEL WAGNER:
WELL, I THINK THAT ALL THE CAMPAIGNS WILL SAY THAT WE PLAN TO BE AROUND AND SO IT’S REALLY IMPORTANT. IT COULD BE THAT ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE SUPER TUESDAY AND THE WEEK AFTER MIGHT BE FAIRLY PIVOTAL FOR SECRETARY CLINTON. THOSE ARE AREAS WHERE SHE’S A LITTLE STRONGER RIGHT NOW. IF THINGS STAY RELATIVELY THE SAME AS THEY ARE NOW WE WOULD EXPECT HER TO DO WELL IN THOSE PLACES. BUT IT COULD BE THAT SENATOR SANDERS STICKS AROUND LONGER THAN WE MIGHT EXPECT. HE’S RAISING A LOT OF MONEY. HE’S DOING VERY WELL IN SOME OF THE NATIONAL POLLING. HIS BOUNCE OUT OF IOWA HAS BEEN STRONG. HE’S LOOKING SOLID IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HE DOESN’T LOOK LIKE HE’S GOING AWAY. HE COULD BE AROUND IN WISCONSIN, WHERE HE’S POPULAR.
FREDERICA FREYBERG:
IN WISCONSIN DONALD TRUMP IS STILL POLLING IN FIRST PLACE BY QUITE A MARGIN ACCORDING TO THE MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL MOST RECENT POLL. AND YET CRUZ BEAT HIM IN IOWA. WHAT DO YOU THINK THE TRUMP TRAJECTORY IS GOING FORWARD?
MICHAEL WAGNER:
I THINK IT’S PROBABLY A SLOW DESCENT. HE DOESN’T HAVE AS STRONG OF A POLITICAL OPERATION AND THAT CAME OUT IN THE IOWA CAUCUSES, WHERE HE UNDERPERFORMED HIS POLLING. HE’S SAYING THAT’S BECAUSE THERE’S SOME KIND OF FRAUD. BUT THE REALITY IS PROBABLY THAT HE DIDN’T HAVE THE POLITICAL ORGANIZATION AT THE GRASSROOTS LEVEL TO GET PEOPLE TO THE CAUCUS TO DO THE PERSUADING THAT YOU NEED TO DO AT A CAUCAUS. HE MAY DO BETTER IN STATES WHERE YOU JUST GO IN A BOOTH BY YOURSELF AND VOTE. SO NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE A GOOD TEST. IF HE UNDERPERFORMS HIS POLLS THERE, THAT’S A REAL BAD SIGNAL FOR HIM.
FREDERICA FREYBERG:
AMONG DEMOCRATS IN WISCONSIN, CLINTON AND SANDERS ARE WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR, CLOSE AS THEY WERE CLOSE IN THE IOWA CAUCUS. BUT ISN’T SANDERS EXPECTED TO TROUNCE HER IN NEW HAMPSHIRE?
MICHAEL WAGNER:
HE’S UP BY A LOT. I IMAGINE THAT THE CLINTON CAMPAIGN WOULD SPIN ANYTHING UNDER 15 POINTS AS A SURGE FOR HER BECAUSE SHE’S BEEN BEHIND BY MORE THAN THAT. HE REALLY NEEDS TO WIN TO KEEP THAT SECRETARY CLINTON’S NOT INEVITABLE TACT GOING. HE LOOKS LIKE HE’S GOING TO WIN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY. BUT THE CLINTONS HAVE A HISTORY OF CLOSING THAT WELL. HILLARY CLINTON WON IT AFTER LOSING IN IOWA IN 2008. BILL CLINTON DIDN’T WIN THE ELECTION IN 1992, BUT WON THE SPIN AFTERWARDS, CALLING HIMSELF THE COME BACK KID. PEOPLE BOUGHT INTO IT AND THAT HELPED HIS CAMPAIGN. HE ONLY WON THREE OUT OF THE FIRST 14 IN 1992. THESE EARLY WINS AREN’T AS IMPORTANT AS WE MIGHT THINK THEY ARE IN REAL TIME.
FREDERICA FREYBERG:
BUT MEANWHILE THOSE ELECTION RESULTS OUT OF NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL COME JUST BEFORE NEXT WEEK’S DEMOCRATIC DEBATE IN MILWAUKEE.
MICHAEL WAGNER:
RIGHT.
FREDERICA FREYBERG:
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT TWO DAYS AFTER A POTENTIAL SANDERS WIN IN THAT DEBATE?
MICHAEL WAGNER:
I THINK WE’LL SEE MORE OF THE QUESTIONS THAT WE GOT IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE DEBATE THAT OCCURRED THIS WEEK AFTER THE IOWA CAUCUSES WHERE WE’LL SEE QUESTIONS ABOUT ELECTABILITY FOR SENATOR SANDERS AND SECRETARY CLINTON. WE’LL LOOK AT QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW THEY DO WITH DIFFERENT ELEMENTS OF THE DEMOCRATIC CONSTITUENCY. SECRETARY CLINTON LAMENTED AT THE END OF THE LAST DEBATE THAT THERE WEREN’T A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT RACE OR GENDER OR OTHER KINDS OF ISSUES AND THEY WERE ALL ABOUT THE ECONOMY OR FOREIGN POLICY. I THINK WE’LL SEE MORE QUESTIONS THAT SPEAK TO MORE MEMBERS OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY THAN WE SAW IN THE LAST DEBATE.
FREDERICA FREYBERG:
NOW, YOU’VE SAID THAT CLINTON SHOULD BE ABLE TO HAVE A CONSIDERABLE LEAD IN WISCONSIN’S PRIMARY CONTEST IN APRIL. WHY?
MICHAEL WAGNER:
A CONSIDERABLE LEAD IN DELEGATES UP TO THAT POINT. SO THE MARCH PRIMARIES ARE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WHERE THE ELECTORATE ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE IS MORE DIVERSE, WHICH IS A PLACE WHERE SHE DOES A LITTLE BIT BETTER IN THE POLLS AS COMPARED TO SENATOR SANDERS. ON THE OTHER HAND, HE’S DOING EXTRAORDINARILY WELL WITH YOUNG VOTERS, WHO TRADITIONALLY DON’T ALWAYS TURN OUT AS MUCH, BUT AT LEAST SO FAR THEY HAVE FOR HIM, AND THEY DID FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA. AND SO MAYBE THE STORY WE’VE TOLD FOR DECADES ABOUT YOUNG VOTERS IS BECOMING LESS TRUE.
FREDERICA FREYBERG:
HE WOULD LIKE THAT VERY MUCH.
MICHAEL WAGNER:
HE WOULD.
FREDERICA FREYBERG:
AS AN EXPERT OBSERVER OF POLITICS AND ELECTIONS, HAVE YOU EVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS PRESIDENTIAL RACE SO FAR?
MICHAEL WAGNER:
IT’S PRETTY PECULIAR IN THAT DONALD TRUMP HAS LASTED FOR AS LONG AS HE HAS WITH NO POLITICAL EXPERIENCE AND NO REAL TIES TO THE PARTY THAT HE’S RUNNING IN. HE’S BEEN A LIBERAL ON SINGLE PAYER HEALTH CARE AND CHOICE ON ABORTION. THE LAST TIME THER’S BEEN A PRO-CHOICE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT WAS WHEN THE CANDIDATE MUST NEVER HAVE REVEALED THEIR POSITION ON THE ISSUE BECAUSE SINCE THE PARTIES HAVE TAKEN POSITIONS ON THE ISSUE HAVE ALWAYS BEEN A PRO-LIFE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE. THAT’S REALLY STRANGE. AND IT’S ALSO STRIKING ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE YOU HAVE A PERSON WHO HAS NEVER RUN AS A DEMOCRAT, CALLED HIMSELF A DEMOCRATIC SOCIALIST, IS MODERATING TO BE A PROGRESSIVE. THEN YOU HAVE HILLARY CLINTON WHO’S BECOMING MORE LIBERAL TO SAY SHE’S PROGRESSIVE. THEY’RE BOTH FIGHTING OVER THIS PROGRESSIVE GROUND FROM DIFFERENT FLANKS IS REALLY STRIKING.
FREDERICA FREYBERG:
ALL RIGHT. MICHAEL WAGNER, THANKS VERY MUCH.
MICHAEL WAGNER:
MY PLEASURE.
FREDERICA FREYBERG:
GO TO WISCONSINVOTE.ORG FOR ALL THE LATEST ELECTION NEWS, INCLUDING LIVE TWEETS BY MICHAEL WAGNER DURING NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT’S DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY DEBATE IN MILWAUKEE. I’LL ALSO BE LIVE TWEETING FROM THE CAMPUS OF UW-MILWAUKEE. THE ONE-HOUR DEBATE STARTS AT 8:00. WE WILL HAVE FULL COVERAGE ON NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT’S “HERE AND NOW.” THEN FOLLOW MICHAEL WAGNER’S LIVE TWEETS ON WISCONSINVOTE.ORG DURING THE FEBRUARY 13 REPUBLICAN DEBATE. THAT EVENT TAKES PLACE IN GREENVILLE, SOUTH CAROLINA.
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