Here & Now

Tim Dale Previews the Next U.S. Senate Debate

Frederica Freyberg:

UW political science professor Tim Dale will be at next Thursday’s debate in Wausau, and offer us snap analysis there on-site. So tonight, a look ahead. Welcome back into our program after that profile of the candidates. What will you be listening for between Tommy Thompson and Tammy Baldwin next Thursday?

Tim Dale:

Well, much like the presidential debate that we are talking about, the debate between these two senate candidates is about big issues. So very few people in this election cycle are saying that they don’t see any difference between the candidates. And that’s no different for these candidates. So one of the reasons we’re seeing so many ads that we would consider to be negative is that there really is a big difference between those candidates, on their vision for the role of government, on their vision of how to get out of or how to respond to economic crisis. So I think what we’re going to see is more of these contrasts drawn, and we’re going to see the contrasts drawn when they’re sharing a stage together.

Frederica Freyberg:

What, in your estimation, is each candidate’s best argument against the other. We heard some of them there in that profile piece, but what do you think is the best they’ve got against the other guy?

Tim Dale:

Well, I think the best that they have is also what the other– what their opponent is tagging as the worst. So Tommy Thompson is running, and we heard the clip, something he says all the time, which is that I’m running as Tommy. You know me. You can trust me. His argument is that he is the same person who served as governor all those years in Wisconsin. And he’s trying to build into his campaign that level of trust. Of course, Baldwin’s ads are telling us over and over, that he is no longer the person that he says he was, or that people thought he was at one time. And so I think Thompson has that credibility that he’s attempting to run on, but also Baldwin’s attempting to attack. And I think Baldwin has the same argument that Obama has at the national level, that the policies of the Bush administration, the problems that got us into an economic crisis are what Tommy has tied himself to. And so her best argument is also her worst, in the sense that Thompson is painting her as not only a liberal in the vein of Obama and Pelosi as we see in some of these more recent ads, but worse liberal than Obama or Pelosi. So I think in that way you have both of them trying to cash in on something that their opponent is trying to say is a bad thing about them.

Frederica Freyberg:

Why do you think Tammy Baldwin is ahead in the polls right now, if only slightly?

Tim Dale:

Well, I think Baldwin has several things going for her. In one instance, and you saw Tommy Thompson talking about this a little bit in the clips that you showed, is that she had a fairly large money advantage coming out of the gates, and so she was able to run ads for a long time. Now, I’m not sure that the Thompson campaign, or that Thompson, is correct that he had to check out completely while he was raising money. Candidates are able to raise money and run campaigns at the same time. I think he was at such a money disadvantage that he probably was hurt for that period of time that he didn’t make very many appearances. But the other thing that we’re seeing is a lot of money coming into the state from outside groups who are running attack ads against both of these candidates. I think what we're seeing is that some of Baldwin’s arguments have worked and have taken. Thompson has taken his hits because of it.

Frederica Freyberg:

And very briefly, we have just about 30 seconds left, do you expect that the kinds of personality differences between these two, or speaking styles, will be an issue in next Thursday’s debate? I mean, I regard Tammy Baldwin as really rather soft-spoken and Tommy Thompson as much less so.

Tim Dale:

I think that what we’re going to see is the candidates attempt to frame their arguments in a way that shows contrast. And I think Baldwin does tend to be soft-spoken. But she delivers a very passionate stump speech when she’s out talking to people around the state. And I think her campaign right now is probably focused on trying to capture some of that energy in her statement. And Thompson is no stranger to these situations, and so I think we might see both of them step up to the plate next week.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right, Tim Dale, we look forward to seeing you there. Thanks.

Tim Dale:

Thank you.