Here & Now

New Numbers In State Races From Marquette Poll

ZAC SCHULTZ:

THE RESULTS FROM THE MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL POLL ARE IN AND SO IS THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR CHARLES FRANKLIN. THANKS FOR BEING HERE.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THANK YOU.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

NOW LET’S GET RIGHT TO IT. APRIL 5 IS WISCONSIN’S PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY. ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE WE’VE GOT A TOSS-UP.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

WE REALLY DO. IT WAS JUST A TWO-POINT CLINTON LEAD LAST TIME. IT’S A ONE-POINT SANDERS LEAD THIS TIME. BOTH OF THOSE ARE WELL WITHIN A MARGIN OF ERROR. THIS IS A RACE THAT TIGHTENED FROM A 12-POINT CLINTON LEAD AT THE END OF THE SUMMER TO NOW A DEAD HEAT.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

AND ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE TRUMP’S EXPANDED HIS LEAD A LITTLE BIT BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

A LITTLE BIT. HE WAS AT 24% LAST TIME. HE’S AT 30% THIS TIME, CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY — NOW I’M HAVING TROUBLE WITH THEIR NAMES. THAT’S A BAD SIGN FOR THEM. RUBIO. I’M HAVING MY MOMENT. RUBIO AND CRUZ. THAT RACE HAS EXPANDED A LITTLE BIT OF THE LEAD IN THE MONTH, BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. STILL, WE’VE GOT SUPER TUESDAY ON MARCH 1 AND ANOTHER BIG PRIMARY NIGHT ON MARCH 15. WE’RE A LITTLE WAYS AWAY TO SEE HOW THAT RACE SHAPES UP AS WE GO FORWARD.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

THERE’S BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF MOVEMENT SINCE THE FIRST FEW PRIMARIES BEFORE WE HAD THESE POLLS TAKEN.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THERE HAS. TRUMP HAS BEEN AROUND 20 AND THEN 24 AND NOW 30, SO YOU CAN SEE HIM MOVING UP A BIT. TED CRUZ IS THE OTHER ONE WHO’S MOVED UP, BUT HE’S STILL IN THIRD PLACE HERE. IT’S REALLY RUBIO WHOHAS ONLY MOVED A COUPLE OF POINTS OVER THE LAST THREE OR FOUR MONTHS.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

LOOKING AT THE HEAD-TO-HEADS, THE DEMOCRATIC CONTENDERS HOLD THE LEAD OR AT LEAST A TIE IN EVERY MATCH-UP.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THAT’S RIGHT. AND THERE WE SEE CLINTON HAVING ABOUT A TEN-POINT ADVANTAGE OVER TRUMP, BUT ESSENTIALLY TIED WITH EITHER RUBIO OR CRUZ. WHEREAS SANDERS HAS SUBSTANTIAL LEADS, 20 POINTS OVER TRUMP, 18 OVER BOTH CRUZ AND RUBIO. WHERE THAT COMES FROM IS BERNIE SANDERS IS WINNING THE VOTES OF INDEPENDENTS IN THIS STATE IN A WAY THAT HILLARY CLINTON IS NOT DOING. THE REPUBLICANS THEREFORE ARE VERY COMPETITIVE WITH CLINTON, BUT ARE TRAILING SANDERS QUITE A BIT.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

AND THAT MAY LEAD INTO THIS NEXT THING ABOUT NET FAVORABILITY. FIRST EXPLAIN WHAT IT IS AND THEN WHY THERE’S SUCH A HUGE SPREAD IN THESE NUMBERS.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

IT’S REALLY REMARKABLE. IT’S SIMPLY THE PERCENTAGE THAT SAY THEY HAVE A FAVORABLE VIEW OF THE CANDIDATE MINUS THE PERCENTAGE THAT HAVE AN UNFAVORABLE VIEW. NET FAVORABILITY. SO YOU’D LIKE TO BE IN POSITIVE TERRITORY, NOT NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THE SURPRISING THING THERE IS THAT THE NATIONAL FRONT-RUNNERS, CLINTON AND TRUMP, ARE NET NEGATIVES BY SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS, NEGATIVE 18 FOR CLINTON, NEGATIVE 43 FOR TRUMP. AGAIN, THIS REFLECTS CLINTON’S LACK OF STRENGTH AMONG INDEPENDENTS. IN CONTRAST, BERNIE SANDERS WHO IS DOING WELL THERE IS A NET PLUS 21. SO THAT’S QUITE REMARKABLE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

VERY INTERESTING RACE TO FOLLOW. SWITCHING TO THE U.S. SENATE BETWEEN DEMOCRAT RUSS FEINGOLD, REPUBLICAN RON JOHNSON, NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED. AND YOU SAID WE’RE GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT A WHILE BEFORE PEOPLE START PAYING MORE ATTENTION.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

WE’VE NOT SEEN ANY MOVEMENT OUTSIDE THE MARGIN OF ERROR IN THIS RACE FOR ALMOST 12 MONTHS NOW. I THINK IF PEOPLE ARE PAYING ATTENTION TO POLITICS, THEY’RE PROBABLY PAYING MORE ATTENTION TO THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE AT THIS POINT. NOTHING HAS MOVED THOSE SENATE NUMBERS. NOW, WE’RE NOT SEEING ADVERTISING ON TV OR RADIO. WHEN THAT COMES PROBABLY IN THE SUMMER OR CERTAINLY BY THE FALL, THEN IT MAY BECOME A MORE DYNAMIC RACE. WE’LL SEE WHETHER IT TIGHTENS OR EXPANDS AND WHAT ROLE THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES HAVE TO PLAY IN THAT AS WELL.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

THE INTERESTING THING ABOUT THE U.S. SENATE RACE IS YOU DID SOME POLLING ON THE OPENING ON THE SUPREME COURT AND HOW THAT WILL IMPACT PEOPLE. IT SEEMS LIKE PEOPLE ARE MORE IN SUPPORT OF RUSS FEINGOLD’S POSITION OF HOLDING A VOTE NOW, BUT SUPPORTERS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CANDIDATES SUPPORT WHAT THEIR GUY’S DOING.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THAT’S RIGHT. IT’S A MODEST ADVANTAGE. 51% SAY HOLD HEARINGS AND A VOTE. 40% SAY WAIT UNTIL 2017. BUT AMONG FEINGOLD SUPPORTERS, 70% SAY HOLD HEARINGS. AMONG JOHNSON SUPPORTERS, 65% SAY WAIT UNTIL 2017. IT’S HARDLY A SURPRISE THAT PARTISAN LINEUPS DIFFER DRAMATICALLY ON THIS. BUT IT IS A REFLECTION THAT EACH CANDIDATE IS REFLECTING THE VIEWS OF THEIR CONSTITUENCY. NEITHER OF THEM IS RUNNING AGAINST PUBLIC OPINION WITHIN THEIR PARTY OR WITHIN THEIR SUPPORTERS.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

WHEN IT COMES TO THE WISCONSIN SUPREME COURT RACE WE’VE GOT A DEAD HEAT BETWEEN REBECCA BRADLEY AND JOANNE KLOPPENBURG.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

YOU KNOW, IT WAS A CLOSE PRIMARY AND NOW IT’S INCREDIBLY CLOSE IN THE POLLS, 30% FOR EACH CANDIDATE, BUT 31% WHO SAY THEY DON’T KNOW WHO THEY’RE GOING TO VOTE FOR. IF YOU PUSH A LITTLE BIT AND LOOK AT THE PEOPLE WHO ARE MOST LIKELY TO VOTE, IT’S STILL A TIE, 37-36 AND 23% DON’T KNOW. SO VOTERS HAVE TO LEARN QUITE A BIT ABOUT THESE CANDIDATES. AND IN FACT BOTH CANDIDATES ARE ALMOST EQUALLY UNKNOWN. 60% DIDN’T HAVE AN OPINION OF BRADLEY. 57% DIDN’T HAVE AN OPINION OF KLOPPENBURG. DESPITE KLOPPENBURG HAVING RUN IN 2011.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

THAT’S WHAT’S INTERESTING ABOUT THIS. BOTH HAVE SOME MARGIN YOU THINK WOULD HELP THEM. REBECCA BRADLEY IS NOW THE INCUMBENT. SHE’S BEEN APPOINTED TO THE BENCH FOR AT LEAST A FEW MONTHS. JOANNE KLOPPENBURG’S ALREADY RUN A VERY COMPETITIVE STATEWIDE RACE BUT NEITHER ONE OF THOSE APPEARS TO SHOW UP IN THE NUMBERS.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT KLOPPENBURG’S PAST RACE HAS REALLY STUCK WITH VOTERS. NOW IT’S FAIR TO SAY SUPREME COURT RACES ARE USUALLY LOW VISIBILITY AFFAIRS. WE DON’T TUNE INTO THEM UNTIL CLOSE TO THE ELECTION, IF WE TUNE IN AT ALL. WHAT’S ALSO A PROBLEM OR AN INTERESTING ISSUE THIS TIME IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES ON THE SAME DAY AS THE SUPREME COURT VOTE. THAT COULD DRAMATICALLY AFFECT WHICH PARTY HAS HIGHER TURNOUT OR IF BOTH ARE STILL COMPETITIVE, HIGH TURNOUT FOR BOTH.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

VERY INTERESTING TO WATCH. FINALLY WE HAVE TO GET AN UPDATE ON GOVERNOR WALKER. HIS APPROVAL RATINGS HAVE INCREASED, BUT NOT REALLY MUCH.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

REALLY NOT MUCH AT ALL. HIS JOB APPROVAL RATING HAS CREPT UP TO 39%. HIS DISAPPROVAL IS AT 55%. NOW, THAT’S UP TWO POINTS ON APPROVAL SINCE SEPTEMBER AND DOWN FOUR POINTS ON DISAPPROVAL SINCE SEPTEMBER. SO IT’S SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN IT WAS. I THINK HERE THE IDEA THAT GETTING OUT OF THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE WOULD SUDDENLY RESTORE HIS STANDING HAS NOT HAPPENED. ON THE OTHER HAND, CRITICS OF THE GOVERNOR WHO THINK HE CANNOT RECOVER FROM THIS, THERE’S A VERY SLIGHT TREND THAT SUGGESTS HE IS SLIGHTLY IMPROVING HIS POSITION. BUT VOTERS ARE STILL NEGATIVE ON THE DIRECTION OF THE STATE AND NEGATIVE ON THE STATE BUDGET. THOSE ARE THINGS THAT ARE GOING TO EXERT DRAGS ON THE GOVERNOR’S APPROVAL RATING UNLESS THEY TURN AROUND.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

CHARLES FRANKLIN, WE LOOK FORWARD TO THE NEXT POLL AND HAVING YOU HERE AGAIN. THANK YOU.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THANK YOU.