Here & Now

Mike Wagner Analyzes 2014 Midterm Elections

Frederica Freyberg:

Election night listeners of Wisconsin Public Radio got expert analysis from our next guest. UW-Madison assistant professor of journalism, Michael Wagner. His specialty? Elections and politics. Michael Wagner joins us now for a look back and a look ahead. Thanks very much for being here.

Michael Wagner:

It’s my pleasure.

Frederica Freyberg:

Well, so after digesting Tuesday’s election results, how did Mary Burke lose in this way after being kind of so close in the polls at least until the very last?

Michael Wagner:

Well, this election looked a lot like the last couple in terms of the coalition that Governor Walker had. And so Governor Walker’s been very stable in who supports him and who turns out to vote for him come election day. So part of what happened to Mary Burke is Governor Scott Walker, who has a majority of voters who are willing to support him three times in the statewide race. That’s one thing she ran into. I think another issue was voter turnout, a little lower, of course always in midterm elections. And most midterm elections, Wisconsin was no different, a little older and a little whiter in demographics. Both of those are not as good for Democratic candidates on average in elections. So part of it was structural. Part of it was a little bit of low presidential approval, which tends to pull down turnout for the party of the president, which in this case is a Democrat. And part of it, I think, was also Burke’s strategy of focusing in Dane and Milwaukee for a lot of her campaign, which isn’t to say she wasn’t in other places. But Monday morning quarterbacking or post-election quarterbacking might wonder if she had spent more time in places she were she was likely to lose, but lose by less, if that might have made a difference for her. But this was a normal midterm election, and Governor walker has maintained a steady coalition since he was first elected to office.

Frederica Freyberg:

It’s been asked so many times, but how does Wisconsin elect US senators like Tammy Baldwin all the way over to the left, and Ron Johnson all the way over to the right?

Michael Wagner:

That’s a great question, and we see this a lot in Midwestern states. We’ve had times where in Minnesota you had Paul Wellstone on the left and Rod Grams on the right. Now the correlate is Tammy Baldwin on the left and Ron Johnson on the right. And part of this is that it’s not the case that there are a lot of people who for both Senator Baldwin and Senator Johnson. They run for office at different times in different economic conditions, in different structural conditions. So Baldwin ran and President Obama was on the top of the ticket. So Democrats were turning out in higher numbers, which was good for her in that particular election. So part of it is what complection of the electorate show up on election day and when that election happens to be, but also our state is pretty divided in a couple of really important ways. And they are divided in such ways that a lot of people who in some cases can make up a majority which support Senator Johnson and the other condition who support Senator Baldwin. We’re a pretty divided state and we show that in our statewide elections.

Frederica Freyberg:

Back to the governor’s race. Does this election call into question Democrats’ ground game, their ability to get out the vote, or is it about issues and the candidate?

Michael Wagner:

I would say it’s an interaction of the two. The Democrats, and especially President Obama’s team and the leftovers of that in Wisconsin, are very strong in terms of turning out the vote. But you can only turn out the vote when people are motivated for the candidates that are on the ticket in that particular election. So President Obama’s team was good at turning out the vote for President Obama. And to take that structure and move it to another candidate works a bit, but not quite as well. I think we saw part of that in this particular election. So the ground game is important, but who the ground game is tied to, especially at the top of the ticket, is something that matters at well. And it’s really hard to merge those two things in a way that helps you win an election. Usually a great ground game can help one or two percentage points and make that kind of difference in a really close race. We weren’t quite to that point in this particular go-around.

Frederica Freyberg:

Governor Scott Walker has said that he wants to be even more aggressive with his agenda going forward. And yet voters seem to be saying in polling and otherwise that they really want politicians to work together, that they really don’t like this polarization or the divisiveness. But you think that’s really true on the part of voters?

Michael Wagner:

That’s a good question. Voters are of several minds on that kind of question. So when we say, wouldn’t you like it if our lawmakers acted in a bipartisan way, people say, oh sure, I would. Then when we say, would you like your lawmakers to compromise their principles in order to get something done and compromise with the other side, people say, no, I really wouldn’t. And especially voters who identify as conservatives are less likely to say they would support compromise when they have to compromise a core value. Democrats or liberals are more likely to say, I’d rather compromise to get something done even if it means I don’t get all of what I want. Governor Walker, in particular, ought to feel emboldened now because he has larger majorities in both the state assembly and the state senate, and the new lawmakers elected to open seat races are a little more ideologically conservative than the ones who they're replacing. And so he has more people more further to the right than he had when he faced the recall or even faced re-election. And so we ought to expect the Republicans in the state assembly and state senate to pressure the governor to go to the right, as well as him saying he wants to do the same.

Frederica Freyberg:

Looking ahead, everyone is talking about Scott Walker being a potential presidential contender. How does he shape up in the field that we know so far for the people who might run?

Michael Wagner:

Well, it is super early.

Frederica Freyberg:

Right.

Michael Wagner:

It is as early as it could be. And I’m sure some folks are thinking, gosh, already 2016. But how does he shape up is a reasonable question. And Governor Walker is someone who can now go to Republican party activists, who are people that decades of scholarship have shown are the crucial determinants of who gets elected to serve at the top of a party's ticket. So it's these important activists around the country who really have a say in who the candidate becomes. Governor Walker can go to them if he decides he wants to run for president and say, I’ve won three statewide elections in Wisconsin, where Barack Obama won twice, Bill Clinton won twice, John Kerry beat George W. Bush. This is a place that you have to win if you want another path back to the White House. Or at least, if you win that you're really likely to get the White House as a Republican. And so he can go and make that argument in a really credible way to activists. Now, Governor Chris Christie, who’s a likely candidate, can do the same kind of thing in New Jersey, and other candidates like Jeb Bush are very well-known commodities within Republican circles and are the kinds of people who might have stronger activists networks. Which might make a longer row to hoe for Governor Walker in terms of appealing to the people who ultimately decide who the candidate at the top of the ticket becomes with the Republican party. He’s got a chance, but I wouldn’t call him a front-runner at this point.

Frederica Freyberg:

Do you think with every win of Scott Walker the divisions heal over more and more?

Michael Wagner:

I think the divisions calcify more and more. It’s not like he’s greatly increasing his margins or barely winning by the skin of his teeth. He’s basically holding steady within a percentage point or two since he first sought the governor’s chair. And we see that those divisions are holding steady. If you’re someone who has looked at Governor Walker and said he does what he says he’s going to do or at least tries to and I’m onboard with that, you continue to really like Governor Walker. If you look at him and say, I don’t like Act 10, I don't like these tax cuts, I don't like him saying he wants to do more conservative things, the fact he won again doesn’t make you feel any better about him. And so I think the divisions in Wisconsin are calcifying more than they are healing over.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right. Michael Wagner, thanks very much.

Michael Wagner:

My pleasure.