Here & Now

Michael Wagner On Walker Poll Results And Possible 2016 Run

Frederica Freyberg:

So Governor Walker’s poll numbers dip at home. But does it matter for a national run? We put this and other questions to our next guest. UW-Madison journalism professor and elections expert, Michael Wagner. And thanks a lot for being here.

Frederica Freyberg:

What do you think the explanation is for Scott Walker’s dip in the polls?

Michael Wagner:

He’s been the champion of a couple of policies that these polls show are reasonably unpopular: the proposed cuts to the University, proposed changes to the Department of Natural Resources. And so I think that’s a partial explanation. But of course the ramping up of what looks like a presidential run I think is another one. So there are some folks — of course all of Governor Walker’s opponents in general and some of his supporters aren’t wild about him potentially seeking the White House.

Frederica Freyberg:

In fact, the Governor says that it is scrutiny over the budget that’s the cause of his poll numbers and that they will rebound once there are some changes and adds made to his proposals. Do you think that’s true?

Michael Wagner:

It’s possible. It could be as the legislative process proceeds that negotiations and compromises will be made and people will be more positive about those than they are about the current proposals that the Governor has made. But whether that allows him to rebound all the way is another question. Some of these polls show that there’s a percentage of people who approve of the Governor and then the Wisconsin survey asked do you think he would make a good president. And fewer people said that than approve of the job he’s doing. So some of his supporters aren’t wild about him in the White House.

Frederica Freyberg:

In terms of dipping poll numbers on approval rates, as well as proposals, does any of that even matter on the national scene?

Michael Wagner:

Does Governor Walker like it? No. Does it help him? No. But does it hurt him? Probably not directly. There’s not a reason that a primary voter in south Carolina would say I see Governor Walker’s approval rating has dropped in Wisconsin, this changes everything. Where it might matter indirectly is in the kind of news attention he gets nationally and it might matter in terms of the kind of attacks he receives from his fellow Republicans seeking the nomination who will say the more you do the less popular you get could be an argument that someone like Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio makes where the Governor is not used to taking friendly fire from the Republican side. And so, indirectly, it could matter, but probably just at the margins.

Frederica Freyberg:

As we’ve discussed, several of his budget proposals poll really poorly, but can he broad-brush the broader ideology of them nationally without getting in the weeds on the specifics?

Michael Wagner:

I think so. I think it will fit into the narrative that he makes about himself, which is that he’s willing to take on big fights and take on liberals on things that liberals hold dear, such as labor union membership and support, higher education, things like that. So he’s willing to take on those big fights. And whether they’re popular or not, still fit into his narrative of I’m willing to fight the big fight for fiscal conservatism, individual responsibility and those kinds of things, which are hallmarks of all Walker campaigns.

Frederica Freyberg:

Is there danger at all of him tacking too far to the right in this kind of early presidental run process?

Michael Wagner:

In terms of the general election, there’s always a danger of swerving too far in one direction and having to come back to the middle. Mitt Romney went through this in 2012. He actually had an aide on television say, well now that we’ve gotten through the primaries, we’ll shake the etch-a-sketch and start over. And, you know, that is sort of what campaigns try to do. They appeal to the extreme elements of their party to win the primary and then appeal to people who weren’t yet paying attention who were more moderate in the general election. And so it opens you up to being called a flip-flopper, which is now something Governor Walker’s experiencing as charges on issues like immigration and ethonal. He has responses for those, but he’s facing the charges. If you tack too far to the right on the Republican side and walk back to the middle in the general election, you open yourself up to that same kind of criticism.

Frederica Freyberg:

Is that flip-flop criticism, does it stick?

Michael Wagner:

If the opponents make it consistently and there’s not a counter narrative that effectively pushes back, then it can stick. It certainly stuck to John Kerry in 2004. You even had the ad of him windsurfing in an ad saying he was for the Iraq vote before he was against it. And for education reform before he was against it. And that ad was an effective negative ad. It was funny, but it also made the point this person can’t be trusted. Whether Governor Walker’s opponents can make that same case, we won’t know until we see what kind of advertisements they air, whether they hone in on flip-flopping as an issue or something else.

Frederica Freyberg:

Alright Michael Wagner. Thanks very much.