FREDERICA FREYBERG:

SCOTT WALKER’S CARRIES HIS HOME STATE REPUBLICANS IN HIS BID FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION, ACCORDING TO THE MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL POLL JUST OUT. WE GET RIGHT TO IT NOW WITH THE POLL’S DIRECTOR CHARLES FRANKLIN. THANKS VERY MUCH FOR BEING HERE.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

GLAD TO BE HERE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

SO TAKING A LOOK AT THE NUMBERS, AS WE’VE SAID, SCOTT WALKER CHECKS IN WITH 25%. WAY AHEAD OF ALL THE OTHERS. DO YOU SUPPOSE THE AGGRESSIVELY NORMAL WISCONSIN REPUBLICANS AREN’T GOING IN FOR THE KIND OF SHOWMAN TRUMP?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

WELL, IT’S VERY INTERESTING THAT TRUMP’S AT ONLY 9%, THIRD PLACE, WHEREAS HE’S POLLING IN THE HIGH TEENS OR 20s IN A LOT OF STATES RIGHT NOW. SO WE CERTAINLY HAVE NOT JUMPED ON THE TRUMP BANDWAGON TO THE SAME EXTENT THAT IOWA HAS, FOR EXAMPLE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

HOW SURPRISING IS IT THAT JEB BUSH TRAILS THE PACK SO SIGNIFICANTLY?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

WELL IT’S SURPRISING GIVEN HIS NAME AND HIS POSITION WITHIN THE PARTY. BUT I THINK IT IS A STRONG HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE FOR GOVERNOR WALKER. HE’S FALLEN OFF FROM 40% IN APRIL TO NOW 25%. BUT OTHER CANDIDATES HAVE RISEN AS THIS HUGE FIELD HAS SORT OF SPREAD THE VOTE OUT, SO TRUMP HAS GONE FROM NOT EVEN INCLUDED IN THE POLL TO NINE. CARLY FIORINA HAS GONE FROM ZERO TO SEVEN. CARSON HAS GONE FROM FIVE TO 13. SO JUST IF YOU THINK OF THAT BUNCH OF PERCENTAGES AMONG JUST THOSE THREE CANDIDATES, THERE’S MORE COMPETITION RIGHT NOW THAN THERE WAS BACK IN APRIL.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDERS FOR THE NOMINATION. HILLARY CLINTON AT 44%, BERNIE SANDERS 32%. IT WOULD SEEM THAT BERNIE SANDERS OR MAYBE HER OWN ISSUES HAS — HAVE CHIPPED AWAY AT HER LEAD?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

SANDERS HAS CERTAINLY GOTTEN OFF TO A GOOD START. AGAIN SOMEONE THAT WASN’T INCLUDED IN OUR APRIL POLL BECAUSE HE HAD NOT EVEN STARTED A CANDIDACY THEN. POLLING AT 32% IS A STRONG SHOWING. HE’S STILL 12 POINTS BEHIND CLINTON. WE HAVE TO RECOGNIZE THAT SHE STILL HOLDS THE LEAD. BUT HE REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE. THEN JOE BIDEN AT JUST 12% AND HE’S NOT EVEN IN THE RACE. BUT ALL OF THE OTHER CANDIDATES ARE ONE POINT OR LESS. AND SO RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE KIND OF A TWO-PERSON RACE. BUT MAYBE A SIGNIFICANT EFFORT BY SANDERS.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S LOOK AT THE U.S. SENATE RACE IN WISCONSIN. THIS RACE BETWEEN RUSS FEINGOLD AND RON JOHNSON HAS TIGHTENED SINCE YOUR LAST POLL IN APRIL. BUT TEASING THESE NUMBERS OUT A LITTLE BIT, YOU ALSO SHOWED FAVORABILITY RATINGS, PUTTING FEINGOLD’S HIGHER THAN JOHNSON’S. WHAT STOOD OUT TO ME WAS THAT 38% WERE NOT ABLE TO RATE SENATOR JOHNSON? WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT HIM SIX YEARS IN?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

HE REMAINS SURPRISING LITTLE KNOWN IN THE STATE, IF 38% DON’T HAVE AN OPINION. 62% DO, BUT 38% DON’T. BUT THAT’S ABOUT WHERE HE’S BEEN THROUGHOUT OUR POLLING OVER THE LAST FOUR YEARS. SOMEWHERE IN THE 30s RANGE SAY THEY DON’T KNOW ENOUGH. NOW SENATOR BALDWIN IS DOWN IN THE LOWER 20s, FORMER SENATOR FEINGOLD IS IN THE MID-20s OF NOT RECOGNIZING HIM. FOR A POINT OF COMPARISON, JUST BEFORE HE WAS PICKED FOR THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL RUN, PAUL RYAN WAS AT 35% THAT DIDN’T KNOW HIM. SO IT’S A HIGH LEVEL. IT’S NOT AN ASTONISHINGLY HIGH LEVEL. THE ONE OTHER THING THAT WE SEE IN THAT RACE, THOUGH, IS THAT FEINGOLD WAS AT A POSITIVE NET 21-POINT FAVORABILITY IN APRIL. HE’S TO A 12 NOW. 12 IS STILL BETTER THAN SENATOR JOHNSON’S NEGATIVE ONE ON THAT SAME RATING. BUT IT SHOWS THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME FALLOUT FOR FEINGOLD. AND WE SEE IN THE VOTE QUESTION THAT REPUBLICANS — INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY WERE GIVING FEINGOLD 20% OF THEIR VOTE IN APRIL AND THAT’S FALLEN TO 12% NOW. PURE REPUBLICANS WENT FROM 12-POINT SUPPORT FOR HIM TO FOUR NOW. YOU SEE WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT. PARTISANS ARE COMING HOME. IT WAS UNLIKELY THAT YOU WOULD EVER GET THAT LEVEL OF CROSS-OVER VOTING THAT WE SAW IN APRIL, RIGHT AFTER FEINGOLD HAD DECLARED.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S GO OVER TO THE GENERAL ELECTION MATCH-UPS. THIS IS AN INTERESTING ONE. BUT THE THING OBVIOUSLY THAT STANDS OUT HERE IS THAT CLINTON IS AHEAD, NO MATTER THE CHALLENGER. IS THAT REFLECTIVE IN WISCONSIN OF KIND OF THE STATEWIDE ELECTORATE?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

I THINK IT IS A DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE ESPECIALLY IN PRESIDENTIAL YEARS. IT IS ALSO TRUE THAT CLINTON HAS GENERALLY BEEN OUTPOLLING REPUBLICAN OPPONENTS IN POLLS ELSEWHERE IN THE COUNTRY, AS WELL AS NATIONALLY. ALL OF THESE MARGINS THAT WE’VE MEASURED IN THE PAST AND NOW HAVE TIGHTENED BY ANYWHERE FROM TWO TO SIX OR EIGHT POINTS SINCE APRIL. AND SO THE RACES ARE TIGHTENING. BUT SHE STILL HOLDS A BIT OF AN ADVANTAGE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

NOW BACK TO SCOTT WALKER. HIS APPROVAL RATING. WHAT YOU SHOW IS THAT 57% OF THE RESPONDENTS DISAPPROVE AND 39% APPROVE. NOW THE WALKER CAMPAIGN LOOKS AT THESE NUMBERS AND THEY BLAME THE STATE BUDGET. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF IT?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

WELL, THERE IS AN ELEMENT OF THE BUDGET IN EVALUATIONS OF THE GOVERNOR. IF WE LOOK AT OCTOBER POLLING, BY A MARGIN OF 17% IN OCTOBER, PEOPLE SAID THE BUDGET WAS IN BETTER SHAPE THAN IT HAD BEEN A FEW YEARS AGO. STARTING IN APRIL IT WAS AT NEGATIVE FIVE, 5% MORE SAYING WORSE RATHER THAN BETTER. AND THAT NUMBER DID NOT CHANGE BETWEEN OUR APRIL POLL AND THIS NEW ONE. SO IT SUGGESTS THAT THERE WAS A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN VIEWS OF THE BUDGET AND THAT THOSE VIEWS OF THE BUDGET HAVE REMAINED STABLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE SPRING AND SUMMER DEBATE IN THE PASSAGE OF THE BILL, OF THE BUDGET IN EARLY JULY. SO IT MAY CHANGE IN THE LONG RUN. BUT THAT’S CERTAINLY A PART OF THE CHANGING VIEWS OF THE GOVERNOR. AND ALSO ESPECIALLY AMONG REPUBLICANS. INDEPENDENTS THAT LEAN TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY HAVE GONE FROM 85% APPROVAL OF WALKER TO 64% APPROVAL OF WALKER SINCE LAST OCTOBER. SINCE THE FALL. SO THERE ARE SOME EROSIONS WITHIN HIS PARTY SUPPORT.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

ALL RIGHT. CHARLES FRANKLIN, WE LEAVE IT THERE. THANKS VERY MUCH.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THANK YOU.