ZAC SCHULTZ:

ONE OF THE REASONS WAUKESHA’S PROPOSAL WAS ACCEPTED WAS THE EIGHT STATES IN THE COMPACT AGREED THIS DIVERSION WAS THE ONLY SOLUTION FOR WAUKESHA’S LONG-TERM WATER NEEDS. TONIGHT WE WANT TO TELL YOU ABOUT AN UPCOMING PROGRAM THAT LOOKS AT WATER WITH ANOTHER LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE. “YAHARA WATERSHED: A PLACE OF CHANGE” WILL AIR NEXT THURSDAY AT 7:30 ON WISCONSIN PUBLIC TELEVISION. THIS DOCUMENTARY FOLLOWS A TEAM OF UW RESEARCHERS AS THEY EXAMINE WHAT THE WATERSHED SURROUNDING THE MADISON AREA COULD LOOK LIKE IN THE YEAR 2070. TO DO SO, THEY BUILT A SOPHISTICATED COMPUTER MODEL THAT CAN PREDICT WHAT THE FUTURE MAY HOLD IN TERMS OF WATER QUALITY, CROP YIELDS OR RUN OFF. HERE’S A PREVIEW.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

THERE IS A GENERALIZED BIG PICTURE TO THE YAHARA WATERSHED. DAIRY DOMINATES THE NORTH.

ERIC BOOTH:

WE HAVE A LOT OF LIVESTOCK, PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER PART OF THE WATERSHED.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

THE LAKES AND THE URBAN CORE SIT IN THE MIDDLE.

ERIC BOOTH:

IN THE SOUTHERN PART, IT’S MOSTLY COMMODITY, GRAIN FARMING.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

BOOTH BREAKS THE YAHARA WATERSHED INTO GRID CELLS OF ABOUT 12 ACRES AND THEN DETERMINES WHAT’S GROWING IN EACH CELL. HE EVEN FACTORS IN ANIMALS LIKE COWS AND HOW THEY IMPACT THE LANDSCAPE. THIS IS WHERE REALITY IS FIRST MEASURED AND THEN CONVERTED INTO EQUATIONS AND COMPUTER CODE.

CHRIS KUCHARIK:

IT’S THAT SYSTEM OF EQUATIONS THAT REALLY GO INTO MAKING A MORE COMPLEX MODEL THAT REPRESENTS THE PHYSICS, THE CHEMISTRY, THE INTERACTIONS OF HOW THINGS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WORK TOGETHER.

MELISSA MOTEW:

THIS IS COMPUTER CODE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

MELISSA MOTEW IS A GRADUATE RESEARCH ASSISTANT ON THE YAHARA PROJECT.

MELISSA MOTEW:

I’M MAKING LOTS OF GRAPHS AND ANIMATIONS AND THINGS TO HELP GET AN IDEA OF WHAT THE NUMBERS ARE SAYING.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

SHE’S PART OF THE TEAM WORKING ON WRITING THE CODE THAT MAKES UP THE COMPUTER MODEL. HER GRAPHS HELP HER UNDERSTAND IF THE MODEL IS PRODUCING ACCURATE RESULTS.

MELISSA MOTEW:

WE’RE SEEING WHAT THE MODEL IS GENERATING, CHECKING TO SEE DO THESE NUMBERS MAKE SENSE. DO THEY AGREE WITH WHAT WE’VE SEEN IN THE PAST? WHAT WE UNDERSTAND FROM PREVIOUS RESEARCH.

CHRIS KUCHARIK:

YOU CAN GO OUT AND TAKE FANCY EQUIPMENT AND COLLECT A BUNCH OF JUNK MEASUREMENTS.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

PROFESSOR CHRIS KUCHARIK SAYS THE MODEL IS MORE THAN JUST A SUM OF THEIR MEASUREMENTS.

RESEARCHER:

71.5.

CHRIS KUCHARIK:

WHILE EVERYTHING IS ROOTED IN REALITY, ONCE YOU PUT ALL THE EQUATIONS TOGETHER, THERE’S USUALLY SOME TYPE OF UNCERTAINTY WHEN THINGS START INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

THEY HAVE TO MAKE SURE THE PREDICTIONS OF THE COMPUTER MODEL MATCHES REALITY. THIS PROCESS IS CALLED CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION.

MELISSA MOTEW:

SO WE HAVE TO TEST THEM AGAINST REAL OBSERVATIONS.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

VALIDATION IS PUTTING FIELD DATA FOR PAST YEARS INTO THE COMPUTER MODEL AND SEEING IF THE PREDICTION MATCHES WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED.

MELISSA MOTEW:

WE RUN SIMULATIONS OF THE PAST AND THEN WE COMPARE THE TWO.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

IF THE PREDICTION DOESN’T MATCH REALITY, THEY HAVE TO CALIBRATE OR ADJUST THE COMPUTER CODE.

MELISSA MOTEW:

SO THEN WE GO OUT AND WE MIGHT TAKE MEASUREMENTS AND REFINE OUR MODELS SO THAT THEY BETTER CAPTURE THAT PROCESS.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

JOINING US NOW IS ONE OF THE CO-PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATORS ON THE YAHARA 2070 PROJECT. UW PROFESSOR MONICA TURNER. THANKS FOR YOUR TIME.

MONICA TURNER:

THANKS. IT’S A PLEASURE TO BE HERE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

BROADLY SPEAKING, YAHARA 2070 ASKS WHAT MIGHT THE MADISON AREA LOOK LIKE 50 YEARS FROM NOW. WHAT’S THE VALUE IN ASKING THAT QUESTION?

MONICA TURNER:

THAT’S A REALLY IMPORTANT QUESTION TO ASK BECAUSE WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THE WATER THAT WE ALL DEPEND ON IN OUR LANDSCAPE, THE QUALITY AND THE SUPPLY OF THAT WATER DEPENDS A LOT ON WHAT WE DO NOW. AND IT’S GOING TO RESPOND TO HOW WHAT WE DO NOW IN OUR LAND USE PATTERNS INTERACT WITH THE CLIMATE OF THE FUTURE. SO WE HAVE TO LOOK FORWARD A GOOD WAYS. AND IT’S ALSO THAT THE PROCESSES ARE SLOW. SOME OF THE THINGS THAT WE WISH TO ACCOMPLISH OR THAT WE HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THEY HAPPEN DON’T HAPPEN AT THE FLICK OF A SWITCH.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

WE FOLLOWED YOUR RESEARCH TEAM FOR A CERTAIN NUMBER OF TIME, FEW YEARS, BUT THE PROJECT CONTINUES ON AFTER THAT. WHAT HAVE YOU LEARNED SINCE THEN? WHAT ARE SOME OF THE BIG PICTURE THINGS YOU’VE BEEN ABLE TO TAKE AWAY?

MONICA TURNER:

THERE’S BEEN A NUMBER OF THEM. ONE IS THAT THE WATER QUALITY ACTUALLY CAN IMPROVE AND THERE’S MANY DIFFERENT THINGS. THERE’S MANY DIFFERENT PATHWAYS FOR GETTING THAT TO HAPPEN. BOTH IN TERMS OF KEEPING NITROGEN AND PHOSPHORUS, THOSE EXCESS NUTRIENTS THAT CAN AFFECT OUR LAKES ON THE LANDSCAPE. WE’VE ALSO LEARNED THAT OUR URBAN AREA, OUR CITIES, STORE A LOT OF CARBON. WE WERE A LITTLE BIT SURPRISED ABOUT THAT AS WE’VE PLAYED THAT OUT WITH FINDING OUR DATA.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

A LOT OF THIS LOOKS AT WHAT POLICYMAKERS AND BIG LEVEL PEOPLE CAN DO, BUT ARE THERE THINGS THAT THE AVERAGE HOMEOWNER CAN DO THAT HAVE AN IMPACT ON WATER QUALITY WAY INTO THE FUTURE?

MONICA TURNER:

ABSOLUTELY. A LOT OF THE THINGS THAT WE DO LOCALLY HAVE IMPACTS AS WE PLAY THEM OUT. ONE OF THEM IS AS A LOCAL HOMEOWNER, MAKING SURE THAT THE SOIL ON OUR LAND STAYS ON OUR LAND AND IT DOESN’T RUN INTO THE STORM SEWERS BECAUSE THAT’S ONE OF THE WAYS THAT A LOT OF THE PHOSPHORUS MOVES FROM OUR LANDS INTO THE LAKES. SO THE DECISIONS EACH OF US MAKES LOCALLY HAS A BIG IMPACT.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

WILL YOU BE TAKING THIS TO POLICYMAKERS, PRESENTATIONS AT THE CAPITOL OR OTHER PLACES TO TRY AND INFLUENCE WHAT PEOPLE DO?

MONICA TURNER:

WE WILL BE BECAUSE IN ADDITION TO WHAT WE LOCALLY DO, WE HAVE TO WORK TOGETHER TO MAKE SOME OF THE CHANGES THAT WILL HELP OUR LANDSCAPE AND OUR WATERS BE RESILIENT IN THE FUTURE. THINGS LIKE REDUCING FLOODING, FOR EXAMPLE. I HAD TROUBLE GETTING INTO MY NEIGHBORHOOD A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO BECAUSE OF URBAN FLOODING. WE EXPECT TO SEE MORE INTENSE RAIN EVENTS COMING FORWARD. SO ACTUALLY ANTICIPATING SOME OF THOSE CHANGES AND MAKING OUR LANDSCAPES OF THE FUTURE RESILIENT TO THAT TAKES COLLECTIVE ACTION. SO, YES, WE WILL DEFINITELY BE TAKING IT OUT TO OUR POLICYMAKERS AND TO THE OTHER RESIDENTS IN THE REGION.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

THIS SHOW FOCUSES ON THE YAHARA, WHICH IS THE AREA SURROUNDING MADISON, BUT DOES THIS EXTRAPOLATE TO THE REST OF THE STATE?

MONICA TURNER:

IT DOES. IT ACTUALLY EXTRAPOLATES EVEN BEYOND THE STATE BECAUSE THE YAHARA BASIN IS A WONDERFUL MICROCOSM OR LOCAL STUDY AREA FOR MANY OF OUR UPPER MIDWESTERN LANDSCAPES, WHERE WE HAVE CITIES AND AGRICULTURE TOGETHER. WE HAVE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESTORING SOME OF OUR NATIVE VEGETATION AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR IMPROVING WHAT WE DO IN OUR LAND, AGRICULTURAL LANDS AND IN OUR CITIES TO MAKE OUR FUTURES A LOT MORE DESIRABLE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

NOW, ONE OF THE AREAS THAT YOU FOCUSED ON IN THE STUDY THAT’S ACTUALLY IN THE SPECIAL IS YOU LOOKED AT SOME OF THE INVASIVE SPECIES THAT ARE COMING IN, SPECIFICALLY CRAZY WORMS COMING INTO THE ARBORETUM. HOW MUCH OF A FLUX CAN THIS MEAN IN TERMS OF TRYING TO PREDICT THE FUTURE OR HANDLE THINGS IN THE FUTURE?

MONICA TURNER:

THAT’S A REALLY GOOD QUESTION. THESE ARE THE TYPES OF THINGS THAT WE DON’T ALWAYS ANTICIPATE AND WE WERE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF STUDYING THEM. I THINK THEY CAN MATTER QUITE A BIT. IT’S ONE OF THE REASONS WE WANT TO BUFFER OUR LANDSCAPES SO THAT THEY CAN HANDLE UNEXPECTED SHOCKS. WITH THE ASIAN WORMS, THAT’S A CASE WHERE WE ALSO HAVE A LITTLE BIT MORE INFORMATION NOW SINCE THE DOCUMENTARY WAS FILMED. WE’VE LEARNED THAT THE NITRATE IN THE SOIL GOES WAY UP AND THAT COULD LEECH INTO OUR GROUNDWATER. WE ALSO LEARNED THAT THEY CHOMP THROUGH THE LITTER, LIKE THE VEGETATION OR MULCH ON THE SOIL SURFACE REALLY, REALLY QUICKLY. THAT COULD AFFECT OUR NATIVE PLANT SPECIES, THE WATER IN OUR SOILS AND THE LIKE. SO I THINK WE HAVE TO BE PREPARED FOR THOSE THINGS.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

VERY INTERESTING. WE’LL KEEP WATCHING. THANK YOU.

MONICA TURNER:

THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

WELL, THE ISSUES WE’VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT ARE AMONG THE MANY COVERED IN OUR NEW DOCUMENTARY “YAHARA WATERSHED: A PLACE OF CHANGE.” IT’LL AIR ON WISCONSIN PUBLIC TELEVISION NEXT THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 1, AT 7:30. ALSO NEXT THURSDAY, ANOTHER MEMBER OF THE RESEARCH TEAM WILL BE ON WISCONSIN PUBLIC RADIO’S CENTRAL TIME WHICH BEGINS AT 3 P.M. MILWAUKEE PUBLIC TELEVISION VIEWERS CAN SEE THE DOC ON FRIDAY, OCTOBER 14 AT 6:00 P.M.