Here & Now

Latest Marquette Law School Poll Shows Cruz, Sanders Ahead

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

AS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES BARNSTORM THE STATE, NEW WISCONSIN POLL RESULTS OUT THIS WEEK ENERGIZING SOME CAMPAIGNS. THE MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL POLL, THE GOLD STANDARD AMONG SURVEYS, CONTAINED SOME SURPRISES. CHARLES FRANKLIN, THE DIRECTOR OF THE MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL POLL IS HERE TO BREAK IT DOWN. THANKS VERY MUCH FOR BEING HERE.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THANK YOU.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

SO AS WE’VE SAID, ALL EYES ON WISCONSIN AND ON YOUR POLL RESULTS THIS WEEK BECAUSE WE ARE SUDDENLY SUPER IMPORTANT. WHY?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

WELL, YOU KNOW, WE ROLL THE DICE BEING AS LATE IN THE CYCLE AS WE ARE. EVERYTHING COULD HAVE BEEN WRAPPED UP BY NOW. BUT NOW THAT IT’S NOT WRAPPED UP, WE STAND ALONE WITH NEARLY TWO WEEKS LEADING UP TO US AND A COUPLE OF WEEKS AFTER. SO THAT MEANS THE CAMPAIGNS AND THE MEDIA FOCUS HERE. AND WE HAVE TWO COMPETITIVE RACES GOING ON. SO BOTH PARTIES ARE PRETTY ENERGIZED IN LOOKING AT THIS RACE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

IS IT EVEN MORE POTENTIALLY IMPORTANT ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE HERE?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

IN THE SENSE THAT DONALD TRUMP’S PATH TO A MAJORITY BEFORE THE CONVENTION, A MAJORITY OF DELEGATES BEFORE THE CONVENTION, IS A NARROW PATH. IF HE SHOULD LOSE HERE, AND IF HE SHOULD ONLY GAIN ONE OR TWO CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS, ABOUT THREE TO SIX DELEGATES, THAT WOULD SET HIM BACK A BIT ON THAT PATH AND MAKE IT EVEN NARROWER FOR HIM TO GET TO A MAJORITY. WE CANNOT BY OURSELVES PREVENT HIM GETTING A MAJORITY, BUT WE CAN MEAN THAT HE HAS TO WORK A LITTLE BIT HARDER TO GET THERE BEFORE THE CONVENTION.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

WELL, LET’S NOT MAKE PEOPLE WAIT ANY LONGER. LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME OF YOUR SURVEY RESULTS. IN THE GOP PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY, YOUR POLLING SHOWED TED CRUZ AT 40%, DONALD TRUMP AT 30%, JOHN KASICH AT 21% AND 8% UNDECIDED. WHAT IS IT ABOUT THE REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE HERE THAT LEAVES TRUMP KIND OF STAGNATING THERE WHERE HE WAS IN YOUR LAST POLL?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

EXACTLY. HE HAS NOT PICKED UP ANY VOTES EVEN THOUGH PEOPLE DROPPED OUT THAT ACCOUNTED FOR 31% IN OUR FEBRUARY POLL. SO THERE WAS A LOT OF VOTE TO BE PICKED UP. IT’S ALMOST ALL GONE TO EITHER CRUZ OR KASICH. I THINK PART OF IT IS THE UNANIMITY WITHIN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY ELECTED OFFICIALS WHO HAVE BEEN VERY HOSTILE TO TRUMP ALL YEAR. THEY HAVEN’T REALLY DECIDED UNTIL RECENTLY TO SUPPORT CRUZ, BUT THEY’VE BEEN HOSTILE TO TRUMP. I DO THINK YOU HAVE TO GIVE SOME CREDIT TO TALK RADIO IN MILWAUKEE WHICH SPEAKS TO THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF REPUBLICAN VOTERS IN THIS STATE AND ACROSS ALL OF THE HOSTS THERE THEY’VE BEEN CRITICAL OF TRUMP ALL YEAR.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S TAKE A LOOK ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE WE HAVE BERNIE SANDERS AT 49%, HILLARY CLINTON AT 45%. THIS IS STILL WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR WITH SOME UNDECIDEDS, BUT DESCRIBE HOW TURNOUT COULD AFFECT RESULTS IN THIS RACE.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

IT’S A NARROW LEAD. IT WAS ONE POINT FOR SANDERS A MONTH AGO. TURNOUT HERE IS VERY IMPORTANT BECAUSE SANDERS DOES PHENOMENALLY WELL WITH VOTERS UNDER 30. HE DOES VERY WELL WITH VOTERS BETWEEN 30 AND 45. BUT THE YOUNGER YOU ARE, THE LESS LIKELY YOU ARE TO TURN OUT IN TYPICAL ELECTIONS. SO DOING VERY WELL DOESN’T HELP YOU IF YOU DON’T GET THAT VOTE OUT. SO HIGH TURNOUT AMONG THOSE YOUNGER VOTERS WOULD BE A TREMENDOUS HELP FOR BERNIE SANDERS. FOR CLINTON IT’S DOING WELL IN THE MORE TRADITIONAL DEMOCRATIC AREAS OF BLUE COLLAR, MINORITY VOTERS. THERE SHE’S AHEAD BY NINE POINTS IN MILWAUKEE CITY AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS, BUT SHE’S JUST SLIGHTLY BEHIND AMONG LIKELY VOTERS. SO YOU CAN SEE THAT HIGH TURNOUT THERE COULD MOVE HER UP. BUT THE TURNOUT WE’RE CURRENTLY SEEING IN THE POLL LEAVES HER A LITTLE BEHIND SANDERS THERE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S LOOK AT YOUR MATCH-UPS THEN LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NOVEMBER GENERAL. SANDERS HAS HIGHER NUMBERS THAN ANY OF THE REPUBLICANS, 52, 54, 46 TO THE OTHERS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE SCREEN. LOOKING AT HILLARY CLINTON, SHE’S EVEN WITH CRUZ, UP ON TRUMP, BUT UNDER KASICH.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

I THINK THE MOST INTERESTING THING HERE IN BOTH PARTIES IS THE FRONT-RUNNERS AND THE CANDIDATES THAT OUR VOTERS TELL US THEY EXPECT TO ACTUALLY GET THE NOMINATION, CLINTON AND TRUMP, ACTUALLY RUN LESS STRONGLY IN THE GENERAL. THIS IS A CASE WHERE ELECTABILITY AS TRADITIONALLY SEEN AS MATTERING A LOT DOESN’T SEEM TO BE MATTERING MUCH IN EITHER PARTY THIS YEAR, WITH SANDERS SEEMING CONSISTENTLY STRONGER IN THE FALL AND WITH ESPECIALLY KASICH ESPECIALLY STRONG IN THE FALL.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S MOVE ALONG TO GOVERNOR SCOTT WALKER’S APPROVAL RATINGS. THIS HAS TICKED UP SINCE YOUR LAST POLL A LITTLE. HE’S STILL UPSIDE DOWN, HOWEVER. HOW DOES THIS FACTOR — HE HAS COME OUT AND ENDORSED TED CRUZ. HE’S GOT A LOT OF APPROVAL AMONG REPUBLICANS.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

YES. HIS OVERALL FAVORABILITY HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY CREEPING UP SINCE HE GOT OUT OF THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE AND NOW HAS TICKED UP BY FOUR POINTS IN THIS LATEST POLL. HE’S STILL NET NEGATIVE TEN POINTS MORE DISAPPROVAL THAN APPROVAL. BUT WITHIN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTORATE, HE HAS AN 80% APPROVAL RATING. AND TO PUT THAT IN PERSPECTIVE, DONALD TRUMP AMONG THOSE VOTERS GETS 27% OF THE VOTE. AMONG THE SMALL 17% OF REPUBLICANS THAT DISAPPROVE OF WALKER, TRUMP GETS 44% OF THE VOTE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S LOOK AT THE U.S. SENATE RACE. RON JOHNSON IS GAINING ON DEMOCRAT RUSS FEINGOLD SINCE YOUR LAST POLL, BUT STILL BOTH HAVE PRETTY HIGH NUMBERS OF RESPONDENTS WHO DON’T KNOW THESE CANDIDATES.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THERE HASN’T BEEN ANY APPARENT INCREASE IN KNOWLEDGE OF EITHER CANDIDATE IN THE LAST MONTH. SO THE TIGHTENING OF THE RACE, WHEN WE LOOK AT IT IT LOOKS LIKE IT’S SOME REPUBLICANS WHO ARE BEGINNING TO COME HOME TO SCOTT WALKER AND RAISING HIS APPROVAL A LITTLE BIT AND COMING HOME TO BEING A LITTLE BIT MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR RON JOHNSON. NOW, THAT COULD BE CONNECTED TO THE U.S. SUPREME COURT VACANCY, WHICH HAS PROPELLED THE SENATE AND THE SENATORS — SENATE CANDIDATES INTO A LITTLE MORE PROMINENCE, BUT IT COULD ALSO JUST BE PARTISANS GETTING RAMPED UP FOR THE PRIMARIES ARE COMING HOME TO THEIR PARTIES.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S LOOK AT THE WISCONSIN SUPREME COURT CANDIDATES. REBECCA BRADLEY IS BREAKING AWAY FROM JOANNE KLOPPENBURG SINCE YOUR LAST POLLING, BUT STILL THERE’S 18% UNDECIDED. AND AS FOR FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE OPINIONS OF THE CANDIDATES, A LOT OF VOTERS DON’T KNOW.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

DON’T KNOW REMAINS VERY LARGE HERE. I THINK WHILE THE MARGIN HAS INCREASED FROM LIKE ONE POINT TO ABOUT FIVE POINTS, IT’S NOT A LOT. IT IS INSIDE THE MARGIN OF ERROR. AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE VERY LARGE DON’T KNOWS, UNDECIDEDS, THERE’S STILL A LOT OF ROOM FOR THAT RACE TO SHIFT. THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES COULD AFFECT THAT BECAUSE MOST REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ARE GOING WITH BRADLEY. MOST DEMOCRATS ARE GOING WITH KLOPPENBURG AND WE’RE SEEING A LITTLE BIT HIGHER TURNOUT IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY. SO THAT’S ALSO ACCOUNTING FOR WHY WE SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A DIFFERENCE HERE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

CHARLES FRANKLIN, THANKS VERY MUCH.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THANK YOU.