ANNOUNCER:

THE FOLLOWING PROGRAM IS PART OF OUR “HERE AND NOW” 2016 WISCONSIN VOTE ELECTION COVERAGE. FUNDING FOR “HERE AND NOW” IS PROVIDED, IN PART, BY FRIENDS OF WISCONSIN PUBLIC TELEVISION.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

GOOD EVENING. I’M ZAC SCHULTZ SITTING IN FOR FREDERICA FREYBERG. TONIGHT ON “HERE AND NOW,” THE LATEST STATEWIDE POLL NUMBERS ON U.S. SENATE AND PRESIDENTIAL RACES. WE’LL HAVE A PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE FORECAST. AND WE’LL LOOK AT A NEW STUDY EXPLORING DONALD TRUMP’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE PRESS. BUT FIRST THE RACE BETWEEN HILLARY CLINTON AND DONALD TRUMP IS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR IN WISCONSIN. CHARLES FRANKLIN IS THE DIRECTOR OF THE MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL POLL AND JOINS US NOW. THANKS FOR BEING HERE.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THANK YOU.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

WELL, AFTER A BIG POST-CONVENTION BUMP FOR HILLARY CLINTON, THE LAST POLL SHOWED THINGS SETTLING AND THIS SHOWS THE SAME.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

IT DOES. IN FACT IT SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT. IT’S EITHER A TWO-POINT OR THREE-POINT CLINTON LEAD WITH LIKELY VOTERS, DEPENDING ON WHETHER YOU INCLUDE LIBERTARIAN OR GREEN CANDIDATES. AND IT WAS A THREE-POINT RACE THREE WEEKS AGO. SO REALLY WE’VE SEEN VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE. IN CONTRAST TO THE POST-CONVENTION BOUNCE BACK IN AUGUST THAT CLINTON REALLY BENEFITED FROM, WHICH IS NOW PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

AND WHEN YOU DO ADD THOSE THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATES, YOU SEE THE SUPPORT, BUT IT DOESN’T CHANGE THE OVERALL LEAD.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

ONE OF THE INTERESTING THINGS IS THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATES IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE AND ACTUALLY ALSO IN THE SENATE RACE DON’T SHIFT THE NUMBERS VERY MUCH. REALLY IT’S A POINT EITHER WAY. IT’S ROUNDING ERROR, IN EFFECT, AT THIS POINT. EVEN THOUGH THE THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATES ARE GETTING A BIGGER SHARE OF THE VOTE THAN THEY NORMALLY DO.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

LET’S TALK ABOUT THAT BECAUSE TYPICALLY A THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATE, THAT WILL EVAPORATE BY ELECTION DAY AS PEOPLE DECIDE TO MAKE A CHOICE AT THE TOP OF THE BALLOT. WHEN WILL WE SEE THAT TAKE PLACE IN THE POLLS, OR WILL WE?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

WHEN WE LOOK AT HISTORICAL POLLING THAT HAS THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES IN MOST OF THE TIME, THEY COME DOWN, BUT THEY’RE STILL A BIT OVERESTIMATED IN THE LAST POLLS BEFORE ELECTION DAY. LIBERTARIANS HERE FOR EXAMPLE AVERAGE ABOUT 1% OR LESS IN ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS IN PRESIDENTIAL RACES. GARY JOHNSON IS POLLING A LOT HIGHER THAN THAT. BUT THE QUESTION IS IS HE GOING TO BE LIKE ROSS PEROT IN ’92, WHO HAS REAL STAYING POWER, MAYBE BECAUSE OF DISCONTENT WITH THE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEES OR DO WE SEE HIM FOLLOW MORE THE HISTORICAL PATH AND TREND DOWN? WE DON’T KNOW AT THIS POINT WHICH IT’LL BE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

TALK ABOUT DISSATISFACTION WITH THE CANDIDATES. BOTH TRUMP AND CLINTON HAVE A LOT OF PEOPLE THAT SAY THEY’RE NOT THE PREFERRED CHOICE FOR THEIR NOMINEE. 68% OF REPUBLICANS. 48% OF DEMOCRATS. AND THEN WHEN YOU ASK WHO THOSE PEOPLE WHO ARE DISSATISFIED, WHERE THEY’RE VOTING, THAT’S WHERE YOU SEE A LOT OF THIRD-PARTY SUPPORT.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

ABSOLUTELY. IT’S WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH OF THESE NOMINEES LOST THEIR RESPECTIVE PRIMARIES HERE, SO MAYBE IT’S NOT SURPRISING THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE SAY I WISH I HAD SOMEBODY ELSE. BUT PARTY LOYALTY AMONG THAT GROUP OF REPUBLICANS OR DEMOCRATS IS DOWN AT 60 OR 55. IT’S NOT NEARLY THE 85 TO 95 THAT WE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT. AND GARY JOHNSON DOES QUITE WELL WITH BOTH GROUPS. JILL STEIN, THE GREEN CANDIDATE, DOES BETTER WITH DEMOCRATS AND NOT SO WELL WITH REPUBLICANS. BUT THEN THERE’S ALSO STILL A FAIR NUMBER OF UNDECIDED. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THERE’S SOMETHING CLOSE TO 20% OF THE VOTE THAT’S NOT GOING TO THE TOP TWO NOMINEES THAT MAYBE IS UP FOR GRABS, POSSIBLY THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE WILL HELP FOCUS AND MAY OR MAY NOT SHIFT THAT.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

MOVING ON TO THE U.S. SENATE RACE, RUSS FEINGOLD STILL HAS A LEAD OVER REPUBLICAN RON JOHNSON. THAT HASN’T CHANGED MUCH.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

NOT MUCH. IT WAS THREE POINTS LAST TIME. IT’S FIVE POINTS NOW. IN A THREE CANDIDATE RACE, IT’S A SIX-POINT LEAD IN THE TWO CANDIDATE HEAD-TO-HEAD. MAYBE A LITTLE BIT UP. BUT THE WAY TO CHARACTERIZE IT I WOULD SAY IS FROM LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO MID SINGLE DIGITS.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

FEINGOLD LEADS IN SOME OTHER CATEGORIES THAT ARE INTERESTING. NOT ONLY DOES HE HAVE A BETTER FAVORABILITY RATINGS, BUT MORE VOTERS CALL HIM SOMEONE WHO CARES ABOUT ME AND HE’S REMEMBERED AS A MORE EFFECTIVE SENATOR. DID WE JUST EXPLAIN WHY HE’S IN THE LEAD?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

I THINK WE LARGELY DID. SENATOR JOHNSON HAS BOUNCED AROUND A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAN UNFAVORABLE IN THIS POINT. TWO POINTS MORE UNFAVORABLE. BUT HE’S BEEN PRETTY STEADY THERE. FEINGOLD HAS HAD A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL MORE FAVORABLE THAN NOT. AND CARES ABOUT YOU, WHICH WE’RE MEASURING NOW, HE HAS AN ADVANTAGE. AND A SMALLER ADVANTAGE ON THE EFFECTIVENESS. YOU CAN SEE IN SOME OF JOHNSON’S RECENT ADS THAT ARE AIMED AT SHOWING CARING AND CONCERN FOR CONSTITUENTS. FEINGOLD HAS HAD THOSE ADS FOR A WHILE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

YOU HAD A VERY INTERESTING QUESTION ABOUT THE PERCEPTION OF VOTER FRAUD OUT THERE OR THE AMOUNT OF PEOPLE THAT MAY BE INTIMIDATED AWAY FROM VOTING. WHAT’S THE OVERALL TAKE-AWAY?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

I THINK THAT WE’VE SEEN IN PAST POLLING THAT THERE’S A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR PHOTO I.D. BILLS IN THE STATE. THAT’S BEEN CONSISTENT. BUT THIS TIME WE ASKED PEOPLE HOW MANY PEOPLE WILL VOTE ILLEGALLY? AND HOW MANY PEOPLE WHO ARE LEGAL CITIZENS WITH A RIGHT TO VOTE WILL BE PREVENTED FROM VOTING? AND DEPENDING ON HOW YOU MEASURE IT, THERE’S A PLURALITY THAT THINK IT WILL BE LESS THAN 100 PEOPLE VOTING ILLEGALLY AND IT’S 57% THAT THINK IT WILL BE MORE THAN 100 PEOPLE WHO WILL BE PREVENTED FROM VOTING. AND WHEN WE LOOK AT THE TWO DIRECTLY, WE FIND THAT IT’S TWO TO ONE. 18% THINK THERE WILL BE MORE ILLEGAL BALLOTS CAST. 37% THINK MORE PEOPLE WILL BE DISENFRANCHISED. THIS IS OF COURSE A POLICY DEBATE IN THE LEGISLATURE AND IT’S ALSO A SUBJECT OF COURT ACTION. BUT PUBLIC OPINION HERE IS SEEING MORE PEOPLE BEING DISENFRANCHISED THAN ILLEGAL BALLOTS CAST.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

IN THE LAST POLL THE MAKEUP OF THE PARTICIPANTS WAS A LITTLE MORE REPUBLICAN THAN USUAL. I SAW EVEN SOME CONSERVATIVE COMMENTATORS SAYING THAT MAY EXPLAIN WHY THAT HAPPENED IN THE LAST POLL. SAME THING THIS TIME?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

SAME THING THIS TIME. REALLY SINCE THE CONVENTIONS WE’VE SEEN DEMOCRATS MAINTAIN THEIR CONSISTENT HISTORIC LEVEL OF SUPPORT. BUT A LITTLE BLIP UP AMONG REPUBLICANS BY TWO OR THREE POINTS IS NOT HUGE, BUT IT’S ENOUGH TO CLOSE MUCH OF THE GAP BETWEEN DEMS AND REPS. AND IT’S ALMOST ALL COMING FROM INDEPENDENTS. IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE THERE’S SOME INDEPENDENTS THAT REALLY DIDN’T THINK OF THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS BEFORE, BUT SUPPORTING DONALD TRUMP MAY BE CALLING THEMSELVES REPUBLICANS NOW AND THAT’S BUMPING UP THAT NUMBER A LITTLE BIT. BUT NOTICE THAT THE VOTES MARGINS DIDN’T MOVE IN THE DIRECTION OF THAT SHIFT, SO IT DOESN’T SEEM THAT IT’S REALLY AFFECTING THE VOTE SO MUCH AS MAYBE WHAT PEOPLE ARE CALLING THEMSELVES.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

I WANT TO GET TO AN EXPERIMENT YOU PARTICIPATED IN RECENTLY. THE NEW YORK TIMES AND SIENNA UNIVERSITY CONDUCTED A POLL IN FLORIDA AND GAVE THE SAME RAW DATA TO FOUR OTHER POLLSTERS. YOU WERE ONE OF THEM AND THEY ALL CAME UP WITH DIFFERENT RESULTS. HOW DID THAT HAPPEN?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

FIRST OF ALL, CREDIT TO THE NEW YORK TIMES FOR DOING THIS EXPERIMENT AND TO SIENNA FOR BEING WILLING TO LET THEIR DATA GO OUT TO US. POLLSTERS ALWAYS MAKE DECISIONS ABOUT WHAT IS THE UNIVERSE OF VOTERS THAT YOU’RE GOING TO CARE ABOUT, WHAT YOU’RE GOING TO PREDICT TO, AND WHAT’S THE DEMOGRAPHIC MAKEUP OF THAT ELECTORATE. AND THAT’S A MATTER OF PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT. THERE’S NOT ONE ABSOLUTELY CLEARLY RIGHT ANSWER FOR THOSE THINGS. SO THEY GAVE THE FOUR OF US THESE THINGS AND SAID GO TO IT. NOW, THEY EMPHASIZED THAT THE RESULTS VARIED QUITE A BIT. OF THE FOUR OF US THAT DID CONVENTIONAL POLLING, WE GOT TWO WITH A ONE-POINT CLINTON LEAD, MINE WAS A THREE-POINT AND THERE WAS ONE WAS A FOUR-POINT LEAD. I LOOK AT THAT AND SAY THERE’S NOT A WHOLE LOT OF RANGE THERE. BUT THERE WAS A NEW FANCY STATISTICAL MODEL, WHICH IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM WHAT THE REST OF US DID, THAT SHOWED A ONE-POINT TRUMP LEAD. SO THAT’S A RANGE. FIVE POINT RANGE IN THIS SAME DATA.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

A LOT OF THAT DEPENDS ON HOW YOU DECIDE WHO’S A LIKELY VOTER, MEANING WHO WILL ACTUALLY SHOW UP ON ELECTION DAY.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

AND HERE THERE ARE TWO BIG DIFFERENCES USED IN THIS SURVEY. I AND ONE OF THE OTHERS USED PEOPLE’S SELF-DESCRIPTION OF WHETHER THEY’RE GOING TO VOTE. YOU KNOW BETTER THAN ANYBODY WHETHER YOU’RE GOING TO VOTE THIS TIME. YOU TELL ME. OTHERS AND A LOT OF PARTISAN POLLSTERS DO THIS, LOOK AT THE VOTE RECORDS FROM THE ACTUAL VOTER REGISTRATION LIST AND SEE HOW MANY TIMES IN THE LAST THREE OR FOUR ELECTIONS DID YOU VOTE AND USE THAT TO PREDICT RATHER THAN YOUR TELLING ME WHAT YOU’RE GOING TO DO. THERE ARE ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES TO BOTH OF THESE METHODS. WE, THE MARQUETTE POLL, DON’T USE VOTER LISTS TO BEGIN WITH, SO WE DON’T EVEN HAVE THAT OPTION. BUT MANY POLLSTERS AND A LOT OF PARTY POLLSTERS DO. I THINK THE RANGE THAT YOU SAW WAS PARTLY RELATED TO HOW DID YOU DO IT, USING THE SELF-REPORT WAS THREE POINTS FOR MINE AND FOUR POINTS FOR ONE OF THE OTHERS THAT USED SELF-REPORT. THOSE THAT USED THE VOTER LIST SHOWED A LITTLE TIGHTER RACE, A ONE-POINT CLINTON LEAD.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

THAT SHOULD LET PEOPLE KNOW WHEN THEY’RE LOOKING AT THESE WIDE DISCREPANCIES OF POLLS FOR DIFFERENT STATES AND THE NATIONAL POLLING, THAT CAN EXPLAIN WHY THEY COULD BE SO DIFFERENT.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

EXACTLY. AND IT ALSO REALLY WARNS YOU ABOUT WHY NOT TO MAKE APPLES TO ORANGES COMPARISONS. WHEN YOU’RE COMPARING ONE POLL BY ONE POLLSTER WITH ANOTHER POLL BY ANOTHER, WE MAY HAVE MADE DIFFERENT JUDGMENTS ABOUT WHAT THE SHAPE OF THE ELECTORATE, MAKE UP OF THE ELECTORATE WOULD BE AND WHO’S A LIKELY VOTER. BUT WHEN YOU COMPARE THE SAME POLLSTER OVER TIME, YOU LOOK AT THE MARQUETTE POLL FOR EXAMPLE, WE’RE DOING EVERYTHING EXACTLY THE SAME AND WE DECIDED HOW TO DO THAT BEFORE JANUARY. AND SO NOTHING CHANGES IN OUR METHODOLOGY. SO YOU’RE MAKING AN APPLES TO APPLES COMPARISON THAT WAY.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

THAT’S WHY WE CALL YOU THE GOLD STANDARD. THANKS FOR YOUR TIME TODAY.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THANK YOU.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

SO WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM THIS FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE? FOR THAT WE TURN TO MICHAEL WAGNER, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR AT THE UW SCHOOL OF JOURNALISM. THANKS FOR YOUR TIME TODAY.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

MY PLEASURE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

PEOPLE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS DEBATE SINCE THE CONVENTION. SUPER BOWL OF POLITICS, BREAKING VIEWING RECORDS. ARE YOU EXPECTING ALL THAT?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

I IMAGINE THE DEBATE WILL PULL A VERY GOOD NUMBER IN TERMS OF THE PEOPLE WHO WATCH IT. THERE’S A LOT OF PEOPLE INTERESTED IN THIS DEBATE. THERE’S HIGH STAKES. THE RACE IS VERY, VERY CLOSE. AND SO THERE’S THE FEELING THAT ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN AND THAT ANYTHING COULD AFFECT THE RESULTS. THE HISTORY OF PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES IS THAT THEY TEND NOT TO BE DETERMINATIVE OF WHO WINS, BUT CERTAINLY ALL EYES WILL BE ON THIS ON MONDAY NIGHT.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

WE’VE HEARD HILLARY CLINTON IS DOING A LOT OF DEBATE PREP AND DONALD TRUMP IS DOING EITHER NONE OR VERY LITTLE. WHAT CAN WE TAKE AWAY FROM THAT?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

I THINK IT JUST SPEAKS TO BOTH OF THEIR OWN PERSONAL STYLES. SECRETARY CLINTON IS ONE WHO REALLY LIKES TO PREPARE. SHE HAS DONE A LOT OF DEBATES THROUGHOUT HER CAREER RUNNING FOR SENATE TWICE IN NEW YORK. RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT TWICE. SHE DOES THIS A LOT. THIS IS HER WAY OF DOING IT. AND DONALD TRUMP FEELS THAT HE’S MORE SUCCESSFUL WHEN HE’S FREE-WHEELING AND LESS IN HIS HEAD WITH HONED ANSWERS AND MORE SPEAKING KIND OF FROM THE GUT OR FROM THE HIP. SO THAT SEEMS TO BE THE STYLE HE PREFERS. HE THINKS THAT HE DOES BETTER WHEN HE DOES IT. AND I THINK SECRETARY CLINTON FEELS MORE PREPARED AND READY TO GO WHEN SHE DOES THE WORK THAT SHE’S DOING WITH HER BRIEFING BOOKS AND PRACTICE MOCK DEBATE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

SO WHAT CAN WE EXPECT IN TERMS OF TONE? CERTAINLY DONALD TRUMP HAS INSULTED A LOT OF HIS REPUBLICAN OPPONENTS ALONG THE WAY BUT THAT WAS FOR A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT AUDIENCE.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

I THINK THAT’S A GOOD QUESTION. AND IT SPEAKS TO THE PREPARATION. HILLARY CLINTON IS PREPARING REPORTEDLY FOR TWO DONALD TRUMPS — THE SEDATE, CALM, MORE QUOTE UNQUOTE PRESIDENTIAL-LOOKING DONALD TRUMP OR THE FREE-WHEELING ONE THAT WE SAY CALL MARCO RUBIO “LITTLE MARCO” AND CALL SCOTT WALKER’S WISCONSIN A DISASTER AND CALL TED CRUZ “LYING TED.” AND SO WHICH ONE OF THOSE TRUMPS OR IF BOTH OF THOSE TRUMPS SHOWS UP, WE DON’T KNOW. AND I THINK SECRETARY CLINTON IS PREPARING FOR BOTH. IT’S UNCLEAR I THINK WHAT DONALD TRUMP IS GOING TO DO. THAT’S ONE OF THE REASONS THERE’S SO MUCH TENSION GOING INTO THIS FIRST DEBATE IS WHICH DONALD TRUMP IS GOING TO SHOW UP IS A REAL QUESTION.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

THIS WILL BE THE FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE WITH A WOMAN ON THE STAGE, ONE OF THE CANDIDATES.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

RIGHT.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

HOW WILL THAT GENDER DYNAMIC IMPACT HOW THEY PERFORM AND THEN ALSO HOW WE PERCEIVE WHAT’S GOING ON?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

I DON’T KNOW THAT IT WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH THEY PERFORM. IT’S POSSIBLE THAT SOMETHING COULD HAPPEN THAT MAKES GENDER DYNAMICS SALIENT. WHEN HILLARY CLINTON WAS RUNNING FOR THE SENATE, HER OPPONENT RICK LAZIO WALKED OVER TO HER PODIUM, TRIED TO GET HER TO SIGN SOMETHING. PEOPLE VIEWED THAT AS AGGRESSIVE AND GENDERED. I WOULDN’T EXPECT DONALD TRUMP TO DO SOMETHING LIKE THAT. I IMAGINE THAT BEING FROM NEW YORK HE’S PROBABLY FAMILIAR WITH THAT HAPPENING AND I’M SURE HIS STAFF IS ALSO AT LEAST HAS THAT IN HIS MIND. I DON’T KNOW THAT WE SHOULD EXPECT THAT FROM THE CANDIDATES. PEOPLE SOMETIMES DO INTERPRET THE WAY THAT PEOPLE, MEN AND WOMEN COMMUNICATE DIFFERENTLY. IT’S ALSO THE CASE THAT PEOPLE NOT JUST LOOK AT GENDER, BUT THE BODY LANGUAGE OF CANDIDATES AND THERE’S SOME WORK THAT SUGGESTS NOT EVEN THE SUBSTANCE OF WHAT WE’RE SAYING IS WHAT MATTERS, BUT THE WAY THAT THE INFORMATION IS PRESENTED. THERE COULD BE SOME ELEMENTS OF THAT THAT INFLUENCE HOW REGULAR PEOPLE INTERPRET WHAT’S HAPPENING ON THAT STAGE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

THERE HAVE BEEN A LOT OF FANS OF HILLARY CLINTON OVER THE YEARS SAYING SHE’S HELD TO A DOUBLE STANDARD, PEOPLE WILL FOCUS ON WHAT SHE’S WEARING RATHER THAN WHAT SHE’S SAYING. OR HOW SHE REACTS AS A FEMALE CANDIDATE. WHAT ATTITUDE DOES THAT PORTRAY? ARE THERE GOING TO BE PEOPLE LOOKING AT THAT NO MATTER HAPPENS?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

I THINK SO. EVEN MATT LAUER IN THE NBC COMMANDER IN CHIEF FORUM THEY HAD, WHERE THE CANDIDATES APPEARED ON THE SAME STAGE BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME, LAUER TOLD HILLARY CLINTON TO SMILE. CANDIDATES GET THIS STUFF A LOT. THEY GET IT IN POST-GAME ANALYSIS. THEY GET IT ON SOCIAL MEDIA. THEY PROBABLY GET IT FROM THEIR HANDLERS TOO. IT’S CERTAINLY SOMETHING THAT’S A PART OF THIS PREPARATION PROCESS.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

NOW, IT’S GENERALLY ACKNOWLEDGED THAT HILLARY CLINTON HAS A BETTER GRASP ON POLICY THAN DONALD TRUMP. DOES THAT LOWER THE BAR FOR TRUMP? DOES HE HAVE A LOWER HURDLE TO LOOK PRESIDENTIAL THEN?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN CERTAINLY IS TRYING TO PAINT THAT PICTURE. AND SO A LOT OF TIMES IN A DEBATE BOTH CAMPAIGNS WILL LOWER EXPECTATIONS TO THE POINT WHERE IF THE CANDIDATE DOESN’T TRIP AND FALL OR START SCREAMING INCOHERENTLY, THEY’VE CLEARED THE BAR. I THINK DONALD TRUMP DOES NOT HAVE A REPUTATION FOR POLICY SPECIFICS. YOU GO TO HIS WEBSITE, THERE’S NOT MUCH POLICY INFORMATION ABOUT WHAT HE WANTS TO DO. AND SO THAT BAR IS PRETTY LOW FOR HIM. IF HE DOESN’T MAKE SOME KIND OF MAJOR FACT ERROR ABOUT THE STATE OF THE WORLD, HAVING A “WHAT’S ALLEPO” MOMENT LIKE GARY JOHNSON, THE LIBERTARIAN CANDIDATE DID IN THE LIVE INTERVIEW, HE’LL PROBABLY GET SOME GOOD COVERAGE SAYING THAT HE DID A GOOD JOB GIVEN HIS PREPARATION.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

IN 2012 MOST OBSERVERS SAID THAT MITT ROMNEY WON THE FIRST DEBATE OVER PRESIDENT OBAMA. THE NEXT DAY OBAMA WAS ON BASCOM HILL HERE ON THE UW CAMPUS FOR A RALLY, FILLED THE HILL, AND HE EVEN JOKED ABOUT HIS LACKLUSTER DEBATE. CAN SOMEONE RECOVER FROM SOMETHING LIKE THAT? FROM A LOUSY DEBATE PERFORMANCE? CAN IT HAPPEN THIS TIME?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

ABSOLUTELY. BARACK OBAMA SURE RECOVERED WINNING RE-ELECTION. USUALLY THE FIRST DEBATE FOR A SITTING PRESIDENT IS TRADITIONALLY THE WORST ONE BECAUSE IT’S THE ONE THEY PREPARE FOR THE LEAST. AND THEN IT’S BROUGHT INTO SHARP RELIEF THAT I NEED TO PREPARE FOR THESE. WE HAVE AN OPEN SEAT RACE NOW AND HILLARY CLINTON CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE PREPARING. TRUMP IS DOING WHAT HE DOES BEFORE DEBATES. IT’S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS A CANDIDATE COULD RECOVER. THE FIRST DEBATE IS USUALLY THE MOST WATCHED, BUT IT’S ALSO NOT HIGHLY CORRELATED WITH THE FINAL RESULT.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

WHAT IS THE ROLE OF THE MODERATOR IN THIS DEBATE? WE’VE ALREADY SEEN BOTH SIDES TRYING TO POSITION THEMSELVES ON WHAT LESTER HOLT SHOULD DO? SHOULD HE FACT CHECK IN THE MOMENT? SHOULD HE WAIT UNTIL AFTERWARD AND LET SOMEONE ELSE DO THAT?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

THAT’S A RISK BECAUSE IF YOU FACT CHECK IN THE MOMENT IN A WAY THAT’S PERCEIVED AS BEING UNFAIR TO ONE SIDE OR THE OTHER, THEN THE STORY BECOMES ABOUT THE MODERATOR, WHICH IS SOMETHING MODERATORS WANT TO AVOID. BUT IF YOU LET A BLATANT FALSEHOOD GO BY, YOU’RE DOING A DISSERVICE TO THE TENS OF MILLIONS OF PEOPLE WATCHING WHO MIGHT BELIEVE THAT WHAT WAS SAID IS TRUE WHEN IN FACT IT’S NOT TRUE. SO MY PREFERENCE WOULD BE FOR MODERATORS TO BE PREPARED ENOUGH TO KNOW WHETHER CERTAIN STATEMENTS THAT WERE MADE IF THEY WEREN’T TRUE, WOULD BE THE KIND OF THING WHERE THE MODERATOR MIGHT STEP IN AND SAY WELL ACCORDING TO THIS DATA AND READ FROM DATA, NOT JUST GOING FROM THEIR OWN MEMORY BUT SAYING ACCORDING TO THIS PREPARATION I’VE DONE, THAT STATEMENT’S NOT QUITE RIGHT. I THINK THAT WOULD BE VALUABLE FOR PEOPLE WHO WATCH THE DEBATE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

DO WE EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN? MATT LAUER GOT CRITICIZED QUITE A BIT FOR NOT FACT CHECKING DONALD TRUMP SAYING HE’D BEEN OPPOSED TO THE IRAQ WAR BEFORE IT STARTED.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

I DON’T THINK WE KNOW ABOUT LESTER HOLT’S VIEW OF HIS JOB. WE KNOW CHRIS WALLACE WHO WILL MODERATE A LATER DEBATE HAS SAID IT’S NOT HIS JOB TO CALL BALLS AND STRIKES. IT’S HIS JOB TO ASK QUESTIONS. I THINK I LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE MODERATOR.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

WHAT WILL YOU BE DOING MONDAY NIGHT? WHAT WILL YOU BE LOOKING?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

I’LL BE AT UNION SOUTH WITH THE ELECTIONS RESEARCH CENTER FOLKS WATCHING THE DEBATE WITH STUDENTS AND THEN OFFERING SOME KIND OF QUICK ANALYSIS AND TAKING THEIR QUESTIONS AFTER. WHAT I’LL BE LOOKING FOR IS HOW PEOPLE ON SOCIAL MEDIA ARE REACTING IN THE MOMENT. IT USED TO BE THAT THE SPIN ROOM AFTER THE DEBATE WOULD LARGELY DETERMINE HOW VOTERS AT HOME DECIDED WHO WON. WATCHING THE COVERAGE OF WHO DID BEST. NOW THIS HAPPENS IN REAL TIME. AND A LOT OF WORK THAT THE SOCIAL MEDIA AND DEMOCRACY GROUP HERE AT UW DOES SUGGESTS THAT THE ACTUAL SPIN BY POLITICIANS, ACTIVISTS AND REGULAR CITIZENS WATCHING THE DEBATE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK SHAPE OUR ATTITUDES. SO THE NARRATIVE THERE IS ONE PLACE I’LL BE LOOKING.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

A LOT TO WATCH FOR.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

IT’LL BE A LOT OF FUN.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

THANKS FOR YOUR TIME TODAY.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

MY PLEASURE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

DONALD TRUMP ANNOUNCED HE WAS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IN JUNE OF 2015. AND FOR THE NEXT YEAR THE EXPERTS PREDICTED THERE WAS NO WAY HE WOULD BE THE NOMINEE. WELL, HE IS. AND NOW THE QUESTION OF HOW HE DID IT IS BEING ASKED BY POLITICIANS, ANALYSTS AND PUNDITS ALL ACROSS THE WORLD. HERE WITH ONE PART OF THE EXPLANATION IS CHRIS WELLS. ALSO AN ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR AT THE UW SCHOOL OF JOURNALISM. THANKS FOR BEING HERE.

CHRIS WELLS:

YOU’RE WELCOME. NICE TO BE HERE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

SO YOU AND A LONG LIST OF COLLEAGUES RECENTLY PUBLISHED A PAPER CALLED “HOW TRUMP DROVE COVERAGE TO THE NOMINATION: HYBRID MEDIA CAMPAIGNING.” WHAT WERE YOU LOOKING AT IN THIS STUDY?

CHRIS WELLS:

WE WERE LOOKING AT THE VERY LARGE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE THAT TRUMP GOT FROM THE NEWS MEDIA DURING HIS PRIMARY CAMPAIGN FOR THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION. SO WE KNEW THAT THERE HAD BEEN A LOT THERE AND WE WERE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IT WAS THAT DROVE THAT AMOUNT OF COVERAGE TOWARD TRUMP. SO WE LOOKED AT A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT WAYS THAT HE HARNESSED THAT COVERAGE AND REALLY FOUND THAT HE WAS ABLE TO ATTRACT COVERAGE FOR ALMOST ANYTHING HE DID.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

THAT SEEMED TO BE THE THING. MOST ANYTHING HE DID MADE NEWS IN A GIVEN DAY. DID HE HAVE SPECIFIC WAYS THAT WORKED BEST FOR HIM?

CHRIS WELLS:

YEAH. SO THE TWO THINGS THAT REALLY STOOD OUT FOR US WERE FIRST, HIS SOCIAL MEDIA USE. HE’S BECOME A REALLY PROLIFIC TWITTER. HE’S NOW THE MOST FOLLOWED OF ALL THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES. HE’S ACTUALLY BEEN A TWITTER USER FOR SOME TIME, BUT HE’S REALLY AMPED IT UP WITH HIS CAMPAIGN. SO WE FOUND THAT HE USES THAT AND HE HAS A LOT OF SUPPORTERS THAT AMPLIFY HIS OWN MESSAGE IN TWITTER. AND WHEN THEY DO THAT IT ACTUALLY TENDS TO GET PICKED UP BY JOURNALISTS. AND SORT OF IT LAUNCHES HIM BACK INTO THE NEWS CYCLE. THE OTHER THING HE DID THAT’S REALLY UNIQUE IS HE USED TO DO A LOT OF CALLING IN TO TELEVISION SHOWS. HE DOESN’T DO THIS QUITE SO MUCH NOW BUT ESPECIALLY BACK IN LAST FALL DURING THE PRIMARY. HE WAS DOING A LOT OF CALLING IN TO CNN AND RADIO SHOWS AND SORT OF DOING AN IMPROMPTU SPEECH ON THE AIR WHERE THE JOURNALIST MIGHT NOT BE PREPARED AND HAS TO INCORPORATE HIM IN. BOTH OF THOSE THINGS INDEPENDENTLY INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE HE GOT.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

PEOPLE THAT DON’T LIKE TRUMP HAVE BEEN SAYING THAT IT’S THE MEDIA’S FAULT. THEY SHOULDN’T HAVE BEEN GIVING HIM ALL THAT COVERAGE ESPECIALLY BEFORE ANY OF THE BALLOTS HAD BEEN CAST IN THE PRIMARY. OTHER PEOPLE SAY TRUMP JUST PLAYED THEM PERFECTLY. HE TOOK ADVANTAGE OF THE WAY THE SYSTEM IS SET UP TO CREATE A 24-HOUR NEWS CYCLE AND HE DID IT.

CHRIS WELLS:

I THINK THAT’S RIGHT. YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER TRUMP, EVEN MORE THAN BEING A BUSINESSMAN WHICH HE’S KIND OF KNOWN FOR, HE’S REALLY A PUBLIC RELATIONS MAN. HE’S DONE THIS FOR DECADES. HE’S WORKED WITH TABLOID JOURNALISM IN NEW YORK FOR DECADES. HE DID THE REALITY TV SHOW THING. HIS THING IS REALLY ATTRACTING ATTENTION. HE’S DONE IT FOR DECADES AND THERE’S NO SURPRISE THAT HE’S DOING IT NOW. HE’S REALLY GOOD AT IT.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

AND HE DIDN’T REALLY CARE IF IT WAS GOOD PUBLICITY OR BAD PUBLICITY. IT’S LIKE THE OLD ADAGE THERE’S NO SUCH THING AS BAD PUBLICITY, RIGHT?

CHRIS WELLS:

SO THAT’S A REALLY INTERESTING THING. IT SEEMS TO BE FOR TRUMP THERE’S NO SUCH THING AS BAD PUBLICITY. BUT YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER A COUPLE THINGS. ONE OF THEM IS WE’RE DEALING WITH A REALLY POLARIZED POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT. SO IF SOMETHING SOUNDS REALLY BAD TO SOME PEOPLE OR EVEN IF THE PRESS SAYS SOMETHING VERY NEGATIVE TO TRUMP, IT SOUNDS GOOD TO HIS SUPPORTERS AND IN THIS CASE TO THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS WHO TEND TO BE A LITTLE BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE AND EXTREME THAN THE REPUBLICAN BASE AS A WHOLE. THE OTHER THING IS THAT WHEN WE SAY POSITIVE/NEGATIVE COVERAGE, THE PRESS TENDS TO COVER TRUMP AND CANDIDATES IN TERMS OF HORSE RACE COVERAGE. WHO’S DOING WELL, WHO’S DOING BADLY. SO THAT MEANT THAT LAST FALL A LOT OF THE TIMES THEY MIGHT BE CRITICIZING WHAT HE SAID, BUT AT THE SAME TIME THEY WERE NOTING THIS GUY’S RISING IN THE POLLS. HE’S BECOMING REALLY POPULAR. THAT’S NOT A NEGATIVE MESSAGE. THAT’S A POSITIVE MESSAGE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

YOUR STUDY FOUND THAT NEWS COVERAGE DIDN’T SEEM TO FOLLOW WINS IN PRIMARIES OR DELEGATES BEING SELECTED FOR TRUMP, THAT HE KIND OF CREATED HIS OWN NEWS CYCLE EVEN WHEN THERE WAS A LULL IN TRUMP COVERAGE.

CHRIS WELLS:

THAT’S RIGHT. THAT’S ONE OF THE OTHER THINGS ABOUT PRIMARIES. IT’S KIND OF A CHICKEN AND THE EGG PROBLEM FOR A LOT OF CANDIDATES. IF THEY HAVE LOW POLL NUMBERS, THEY CAN’T GET NEWS COVERAGE BUT THEY CAN’T RAISE THEIR POLL NUMBERS UNLESS THEY GET NEWS COVERAGE. TRUMP SEEMED TO BE KIND OF OUTSIDE OF THAT, THOUGH. INITIALLY HE DIDN’T HAVE A LOT IN TERMS OF POLL NUMBERS, BUT HE WAS ALREADY GETTING A LOT OF COVERAGE, SO THAT REALLY HELPED HIM.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

CAN WE EXPECT ANY FUTURE CANDIDATES TO TRY AND FOLLOW THIS MODEL OR DO YOU HAVE TO BE TRUMP? DO YOU HAVE TO HAVE ALREADY BEEN IN THE NATIONAL SPOTLIGHT FOR TWO DECADES TO MAKE IT WORK?

CHRIS WELLS:

THAT’S A REALLY INTERESTING QUESTION. HE’S SPECIAL IN SO MANY WAYS. HE HAS BEEN IN THE SPOTLIGHT FOR QUITE A WHILE. HE ALSO THOUGH HE SEIZED ON A PARTICULAR MOMENT WHEN A LOT OF AMERICANS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING ECONOMICALLY IN TERMS OF JOBS. IN TERMS OF A LOT OF CHANGE GOING AROUND THE WORLD. AND HE I THINK REALLY PUT INTO WORDS A LOT OF THOSE CONCERNS. SO HE’S SORT OF ADDED ON BEING A SPECIAL POLITICIAN IN ADDITION TO HIS MEDIA WORK. SO HE’S A VERY UNIQUE FIGURE. I DON’T THINK YOU COULD SEE ANOTHER IMITATION BEING REALLY SUCCESSFUL IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

NOW, YOU END THE PAPER BY SAYING QUOTE JOURNALISTS SHOULD REFLECT ON WHAT PROMPTS THEIR ATTENTION TO TRUMP AS WE HEAD INTO THE GENERAL ELECTION AND BEYOND. ISN’T IT TOO LATE FOR THAT? HE’S ALREADY THE NOMINEE. WE’RE ONLY A FEW WEEKS FROM THE ELECTION. EVERYTHING HE SAYS NOW IS LEGITIMATELY NEWSWORTHY.

CHRIS WELLS:

IT IS LEGITIMATELY NEWSWORTHY, THAT’S RIGHT. BUT WE HAVE HAD, YOU KNOW, WELL OVER A YEAR NOW OF ALMOST CONSTANT HORSE RACE COVERAGE OF THIS CAMPAIGN. SO WE’VE SAID WE’VE BEEN COVERING WHAT HAS TRUMP DONE IN THE LAST WEEK. WHAT HAS HILLARY SAID. WHAT HAS BERNIE SAID AND SO ON. THERE HASN’T BEEN ENOUGH ROOM FOR SORT OF REAL ISSUE DISCUSSION. YOU KNOW, SERIOUS ECONOMIC PROBLEMS, ISSUES WITH RACE IN THIS COUNTRY. THOSE HAVE BEEN KIND OF PUSHED TO THE SIDE. SO, YEAH, OF COURSE WE NEED TO COVER WHAT THE CANDIDATES ARE DOING, BUT IT MIGHT ALSO BE TIME FOR THE AMERICAN MEDIA TO HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF ITS OWN AGENDA. REALLY DECIDE WHAT ARE THE MAJOR ISSUES FACING THE COUNTRY AND PUT THOSE BEFORE VOTERS AND THEN, YES, HOLD THE CANDIDATES ACCOUNTABLE TO THEM.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME AND THE STUDY.

CHRIS WELLS:

THANK YOU.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

VIOLENCE IN CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA ERUPTED THIS WEEK OVER POLICE SHOOTING OF A BLACK MAN. AND LIKE SIMILAR INCIDENTS IN OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY, IT’S DRAWN DEBATE ABOUT RACIAL TENSION IN THE U.S. AND PROBLEMS FACING BLACK COMMUNITIES. HERE IN WISCONSIN, VERONA AREA HIGH SCHOOL FRESHMAN DEBRELL CARR IS COMING TO TERMS WITH LOSING HIS OWN FAMILY MEMBERS TO VIOLENCE. HE RECENTLY SAT DOWN WITH MADISON POLICE CHIEF MIKE KOVAL TO DISCUSS CONCERNS AND IS DOING WHAT HE CAN TO HELP PEOPLE HIS AGE BECOME ENTREPRENEURS AND DEVELOP HEALTHIER RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE POLICE. AND HE CONTINUES WITH OUTREACH EFFORT AMONG HIS CLASSMATES. HERE HE IS IN HIS OWN WORDS.

DEBRELL CARR:

I GO BY DEBRELL OR AJANI. MY SCHOOL IS VERONA AREA HIGH SCHOOL BUT I ATTEND EXPLORATION ACADEMY. IT’S BASICALLY PERSONALIZED LEARNING, SO EVERYTHING THAT I WANT TO DO OR THAT I THINK IS REALLY EXCITING TO ME, I CAN USE IT FOR LEARNING. I’M IN 9TH GRADE. I STARTED AN ORGANIZATION A LITTLE BIT AGO. I GOT IT INCORPORATED MAYBE THREE, FOUR WEEKS AGO. IT’S CALLED BUILDING BOSSES. WHAT WE DO IS WE TEACH THE YOUTH HOW TO BE ENTREPRENEURS. HOW TO SOLVE THINGS IN THEIR COMMUNITIES ON THEIR OWN AND COME TOGETHER ON THINGS AND HOW TO KNOW WHAT THEY CAN DO BY THEIR SELF AND AT A YOUNG AGE. BECAUSE I THINK THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE THAT ARE YOUNG ARE VERY SMART. AND IF PEOPLE AREN’T TAUGHT WHAT THEY CAN DO, HOW ARE THEY SUPPOSED TO TRY TO DO SOMETHING WITH THEIR LIFE, YOU KNOW? SO THAT’S WHAT WE’RE DOING WITH BUILDING BOSSES. AND THERE’S AN EVENT THAT WE’RE DOING THIS SUNDAY, ON THE 25TH. IT’S GOING TO BE REALLY BIG BECAUSE, AS YOU KNOW, THERE’S BEEN A LOT OF VIOLENCE BETWEEN THE POLICE AND THE COMMUNITY, MOSTLY BLACK AND LATINO. SO WHAT WE WANT TO DO IS WE WANT TO BRING THE POLICE AND THE COMMUNITY TOGETHER AT THIS EVENT. IT’S BASICALLY GOING TO BE LIKE A FUN DAY, YOU KNOW, JUST A LOT OF PLAYING AROUND AND JUST HAVING FUN. SO IT CAN BE A BONDING EXPERIENCE BETWEEN THE TWO, YOU KNOW. AND EVERYBODY THAT COMES HOPEFULLY WILL BRING AN ITEM FOR THE HOMELESS. SO AFTER THE EVENT WE’LL JUST GIVE ALL THE ITEMS TO THE HOMELESS BECAUSE THAT’S ALWAYS BEEN A BIG THING TO ME SINCE, YOU KNOW, WE WERE HOMELESS BEFORE. AND WE NEVER REALLY HAD A LOT WHEN I WAS GROWING UP.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

BUILDING BOSSES COMMUNITY FIELD DAY WILL TAKE PLACE AT 3:00 THIS SUNDAY AT MADISON’S WARNER PARK. THANKS TO HERE AND NOW STUDENT NEWS INTERN NINA KRAVINSKY WHO PRODUCED THAT SEGMENT. THAT IS OUR PROGRAM FOR TONIGHT. FREDERICA FREYBERG RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS DOES THE MILWAUKEE JOURNAL SENTINEL’S POLITIFACT TEAM WITH A LOOK AT THE U.S. SENATE RACE. I’M ZAC SCHULTZ. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.

ANNOUNCER:

FUNDING FOR “HERE AND NOW” IS PROVIDED, IN PART, BY FRIENDS OF WISCONSIN PUBLIC TELEVISION. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON “HERE AND NOW’S” 2016 ELECTION COVERAGE, GO TO wisconsinvote.org.