Here & Now

Frankin Reflects On Election Results, What Polls Got Wrong

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

ON THE PRESIDENTIAL FRONT DONALD TRUMP WON WISCONSIN NARROWLY, BY ABOUT 27,000 VOTES. BUT GOING INTO THE ELECTION, THE HILLARY CLINTON CAMP APPARENTLY BELIEVED SHE HAD A QUOTE DURABLE LEAD, PARTLY BACKED BY POLLING THAT PUT HER SIX POINTS UP THE WEEK BEFORE. NOW, A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE ASKING ABOUT THE POLLS IN THIS ELECTION AND WHAT HAPPENED. DIRECTOR OF THE MARQUETTE UNIVERSITY LAW SCHOOL POLL, CHARLES FRANKLIN, IS HERE. THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

GOOD TO BE HERE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

SO TO THAT QUESTION, WHAT DID HAPPEN WITH THE POLLS?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

WELL, WE WERE WRONG. THAT’S THE EASIEST THING. BUT IT’S STRIKING THAT ACROSS THE BOARD POLLS HAD CLINTON LEADING SIX IN MY POLL, BUT IT AVERAGED SIX. THERE WERE SEVEN AND EIGHTS. OVER THE ENTIRE YEAR NOT ONE POLL SHOWED TRUMP WINNING HERE IN THIS STATE. AND SO THAT RAISES A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT SYSTEMIC ERRORS. WERE WE LEAVING OUT TRUMP VOTERS, FOR EXAMPLE?

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

RIGHT.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

AND THAT’S AN IMPORTANT QUESTION THAT POLLSTERS AS A PROFESSION WILL BE STUDYING. BUT THE CURIOUS THING IS OUR POLL WAS SHOWING JOHNSON MOVING AHEAD, GOING FROM A TEN-POINT FEINGOLD LEAD TO FIVE POINTS TO TWO TO JUST ONE POINT A WEEK BEFORE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

RIGHT.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

INSIDE THE MARGIN OF ERROR AND A CLEAR TOSS-UP. AND WE SAW A MOVEMENT IN THE PERCEPTIONS OF JOHNSON AND OF FEINGOLD. WE DIDN’T SEE ANY OF THAT MOVEMENT ON THE PRESIDENTIAL LEVEL.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

SO WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

WELL, IF IT WERE JUST THE SAMPLING, IF WE WERE LEAVING OUT REPUBLICANS, YOU WOULDN’T THINK WE WOULD HAVE CAUGHT THE SENATE MOVES THAT WE DID. SO LATE DECIDERS IS ONE POSSIBILITY. THE EXIT POLLS FOUND 14% HERE IN WISCONSIN WHO DECIDED IN THE LAST WEEK. AND THEY BROKE 58 TO 31 FOR TRUMP. AND AMONG PEOPLE WHO HAD A NEGATIVE VIEW OF BOTH PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES — AND THAT WAS 22% — THOSE FOLKS BROKE 58 TO 22 FOR CLINTON — 58 FOR TRUMP. SO WE SAW THAT PEOPLE WHO HAD RESERVATIONS ABOUT THE CANDIDATES OR DECIDED LATE OVERWHELMINGLY, WHEN THEY DID DECIDE, WENT TO TRUMP. WHY THAT HAPPENED, WHY WE DIDN’T SEE IT BEFOREHAND, THOSE ARE REALLY GOOD QUESTIONS.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEAS AS TO WHY THE LATE-BREAKERS WOULD HAVE GONE TO TRUMP, THOUGH?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THAT’S PART OF THE MYSTERY. THE OBVIOUS IS THE FBI LETTER, WHICH REINVIGORATED CLINTON’S EMAIL SERVER SCANDAL OR ISSUE. THAT WAS SOMETHING THAT HAD DOGGED HER THROUGHOUT THE CAMPAIGN. AND TO SEE IT RE-EMERGE AT THE END MAY HAVE HELPED PEOPLE SHIFT ON THAT. IN OUR LAST POLL, WE DID ABOUT HALF THE INTERVIEWS BEFORE THE FBI LETTER AND HALF AFTER, AND WE DID SEE INDEPENDENTS SHIFT FROM LEANING FOR CLINTON TO LEANING FOR TRUMP. BUT IT WASN’T ENOUGH TO REVERSE THE LEAD IN OUR POLL OVER THAT WEEKEND WHEN THE LETTER CAME OUT.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

RIGHT. SO HAS THIS EVER HAPPENED BEFORE?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

OH, SURE. REMEMBER DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN IN ’48. IN AN ODD WAY, THAT’S A HELPFUL MESSAGE. THAT TOO WAS A BIG SURPRISE AND IT LED TO THE POLLING INDUSTRY STUDYING ITSELF AND CHANGING ITS METHODOLOGY TO BECOME BETTER. THE HOPE, OF COURSE, FOR ME AND FOR MY PROFESSION IS THAT WE, TOO, WILL RESPOND TO THIS FAILURE AND MAKE IT BETTER NEXT TIME.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEAS AT THIS MOMENT WHAT THOSE CHANGES WOULD BE?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THERE ARE SOME THAT ARE PRETTY OBVIOUS. IF IT REALLY WAS LATE DECIDERS, THEN THERE’S A REALLY SIMPLE SOLUTION. POLL UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE ELECTION. THAT HAS SOME NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES, BUT WOULD CERTAINLY ADDRESS THE LATE DECIDER ISSUE AND IT’S VERY EASY TO DO. OTHER THINGS CHANGE THE WAY WE SAMPLE. MAYBE WE SHOULD SAMPLE FROM VOTER LISTS RATHER THAN RANDOM DIGIT DIALING, WHICH IS — IT’S NOT CLEAR THAT EITHER OF THOSE DID BETTER THIS YEAR, THOUGH. SO WE’LL HAVE TO LOOK TO SEE WERE THERE METHODOLOGIES THAT WERE CLEARLY BETTER, IN WHICH CASE WE’LL ALL BE WILLING TO ADOPT THEM. OR ARE THERE PROBLEMS THAT ARE MAYBE MORE INTRACTABLE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

I DON’T THINK YOU’VE ADDRESSED THIS YET. WHAT ABOUT THAT QUESTION OF THE HIDDEN TRUMP VOTER, PEOPLE YOU SURVEYED NOT TELLING YOU TRUTHFULLY HOW THEY VOTED.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

IT’S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE AND THE EVIDENCE SEEMS TO SUPPORT THAT. TRUMP DOES BETTER IN THE EXITS COMPARED TO OUR POLL, BUT HE DOES BETTER ACROSS ALMOST EVERY GROUP OF VOTERS. IT’S NOT JUST WHITE WORKING CLASS OR RURAL. IT’S EVERY GROUP WITH TWO OR THREE EXCEPTIONS, WERE BETTER FOR TRUMP. THAT WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH A HIDDEN VOTE, BUT IT WOULD ALSO BE CONSISTENT WITH A LATE VOTE. SO THE NEXT FEW WEEKS AND MONTHS WE’RE GOING TO BE STUDYING THIS IN GREAT DETAIL TO TRY TO FIGURE OUT WAS IT LATE DECIDERS, WAS IT A HIDDEN VOTE OR POSSIBLY IS IT THAT TRUMP VOTERS SIMPLY WOULDN’T DO POLLS WITH ANYONE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

RIGHT.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

AND SO THEY WEREN’T SIMPLY DENYING HOW THEY WERE GOING TO VOTE. THEY SIMPLY DIDN’T PARTICIPATE IN THE POLL TO BEGIN WITH.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

CHARLES FRANKLIN, THANKS YOU VERY MUCH.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THANK YOU.