Frederica Freyberg:
These visits ramp up as new polls are released, namely the latest Marquette University Law School poll, which shows some movement in the race for governor. Charles Franklin is director of the poll. And thanks for being here, Charles.
Charles Franklin:
Thanks for having me.
Frederica Freyberg:
Let’s jump right into these numbers, because among likely voters, your poll this week shows that Scott Walker is up five on Mary Burke. But then on the registered voter respondents’ survey, it’s closer.
But why is the likely voter number a better gauge perhaps at this moment?
Charles Franklin:
Right. As we move closer and closer to the election, people become more and more sure of whether they’re really going to turn out to vote or not. This is a midterm year, so a lot of people will stay home based on the historic turnout levels. So we want to focus more and more on the current electorate rather than just the registered voter. But then the difference between these, you see the effect. Governor Walker is ahead by just one point among registered voters, but ahead by five among likely voters. That’s the turnout effect. That’s revealing that Republicans are a bit more energized and a bit more committed to vote right now. Back in August, Mary Burke was ahead by two with likely voters, and it was Democrats that were a little bit more energized.
This shift from Burke ahead by two to Walker ahead by five is not really very many people changing their minds, so much as it is changes in who’s really committed to voting.
Frederica Freyberg:
Interesting. Now, there’s also a big gender gap, you found, in your latest polling. Men favoring Walker 62% to 34% for Burke. What is that about?
Charles Franklin:
It’s a really large gap, unusually large. A 28 point gap towards Walker among men versus just a 14 point gap among women favoring Burke. Again, a couple of polls ago, those were equal and opposite.18 and 17. I think what we’ve seen is this poll comes after a week of pretty bad news for the Burke campaign. News that put her on the defensive and the Walker campaign and his supporters on the offensive there. That was a time when we saw more of a shift, and especially among men. Some of it is just gender. But a lot of it is because men lean more Republican,women lean more Democratic. So you have partisan differences between the two groups that then help amplify campaign effects, and right now, it’s an enormous Walker advantage among men.Now, I have to say, we saw that vary from, like, two points to 24 points for Tommy Thompson in the 2012 campaign. So this is a highly variable number, and I would expect it to shift a good bit, and probably come down a little bit before election day.
Frederica Freyberg:
Interesting. Now, on some issue polling, you found that on photo ID, the photo ID requirement, 63% favor it, 33% oppose it, but perhaps more stunning is that 28% of voters say they either believe it’s not needed or they don’t know it’s in place.
Charles Franklin:
And that I think the second one is the really important one. The first, the 63%, we’ve seen about 60% or so supporting photo ID for three years now. That hasn’t really changed. But the fact that 28% either mistakenly believe they don’t need one or don’t know if they need one shows that there’s a lot of voter education needed between now and election day. And, you know, that can obviously have effects on election day as people show up without an ID that they actually do need.
Frederica Freyberg:
So apparently the GAB really does need that money to do their public info outreach. But what did your polling say about who was least likely to know about this law?
Charles Franklin:
Well, really, opponents of the law are least likely to know. So Democrats who oppose the law are least likely to know. Likewise, people that think that photo ID is a bad idea are most likely not to know. So the irony of this is the most intense opponents of the law are also not helping their constituents understand what the law now is. And so again, that voter education is important.
But it is a little bipartisan. 18% of Republicans didn’t know about it either. And when we compared the city of Milwaukee to Waukesha and the surrounding suburban counties, it was 18% didn’t know in both of those places. So this is a little bit bipartisan that there’s a lot of education needed, though it’s more so with Democrats and opponents.
Frederica Freyberg:
Bipartisan ignorance. Then there’s the problem of Scott Walker’s plan to require drug tests for people getting food stamps or unemployment. 56% of those you polled among registered voters support this, 41% oppose. Where does that proposal see the most support?
Charles Franklin:
Yeah, Republicans overwhelmingly support the drug testing. Democrats, by a modest margin, oppose it. Independents, interestingly, are a bit pro, but not overwhelmingly so. So this is really an issue that’s playing especially strongly with Republicans.
Frederica Freyberg:
We want to go to the attorney general’s race now. It’s super close, according to your polling among likely voters, but the big number here seems to be the 19% undecided. And then the candidates are unknown to eight out of ten voters. What is this race going to turn on with four weeks left?
Charles Franklin:
There’s very little time for voters to become aware and know these candidates, and so a barrage of television advertising wouldn’t hurt for a candidate knowledge. But really, 80%, 79% didn’t know Happ, 85% didn’t know Schimel. You're seeing a very even balance in the vote driven largely by partisanship, because in the absence of candidate knowledge, that's what voters fall back on.
Advertising would help. We’ll see if outside groups get involved in this race. And finally, it has to live in the shadow of the governor’s race.
Frederica Freyberg:
All right. Charles franklin, we leave it there. Thank you very much.
Charles Franklin:
Thank you.
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