FREDERICA FREYBERG:

THE TRUMP-PENCE CAMPAIGN CONTINUES ITS PUSH IN WISCONSIN DESPITE NEW STATEWIDE POLL NUMBERS SHOWING HILLARY CLINTON WAY AHEAD OF DONALD TRUMP. THIS WEEKS MARQUETTE UNIVERSITY LAW SCHOOL POLL SHOWS TRUMP TRAILING CLINTON BY 15 POINTS AMONG LIKELY WISCONSIN VOTERS. THE POLL’S DIRECTOR CHARLES FRANKLIN IS HERE WITH ANALYSIS OF THE NUMBERS. THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

GOOD TO BE BACK.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S LOOK AT THOSE NUMBERS AND YOU ARE POLLING AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS. CLINTON IS UP ON TRUMP 46 TO 36%. A 10-POINT LEAD AND AMONG LIKELY VOTERS THERE’S THAT 15-POINT SPREAD. WHAT IS YOUR REACTION TO THESE RESULTS IN PARTICULAR?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

YOU SHOULD REALIZE THAT THESE POLLS COME AFTER THE CONVENTIONS AND PARTICULARLY AFTER THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION. AND THEN FOLLOWED BY A WEEK OF ONE OF THE WORST WEEKS THAT THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN HAS HAD IN TERMS OF MESSAGING. TO PUT IT A LITTLE BIT IN PERSPECTIVE, 15 POINTS NOW IN THIS POLL OBAMA WON THE STATE BY 14 IN 2008. SO THIS PUTS IT IN THAT CATEGORY. AND IN 2008, OBAMA WON THE COUNTRY BY SEVEN. RIGHT NOW CLINTON’S POLLING AVERAGE IS 7.8 POINT LEAD. SO WE REALLY ARE LOOKING BOTH AT THE NATIONAL AND STATE LEVEL AT THE 2008 LEVEL. BUT AFTER A SUCCESSFUL DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION AND A TOUGH WEEK FOR TRUMP.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

DO THESE RESULTS OF YOURS REFLECT WHAT’S HAPPENING NATIONALLY IN THE POLLS?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

I THINK THEY DO IMPLICITLY. WISCONSIN IS USUALLY A BIT MORE DEMOCRATIC THAN THE COUNTRY. BUT IT VARIES IN HOW MUCH MORE OR LESS. BUT WE TEND TO TRACK THE UPS AND DOWNS OF THE COUNTRY AS WELL.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

MEANWHILE DONALD TRUMP DOESN’T SEEM WANT TO TAKE NO FOR AN ANSWER IN WISCONSIN. HE IS BACK HERE NEXT TUESDAY AGAIN. AS A POLITICAL SCIENTIST WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THAT TACTIC ON HIS PART COMING BACK HERE?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

I THINK ONE OF THE BEST WAYS TO KNOW WHAT THE CAMPAIGNS ARE THINKING IS WATCH WHERE THEY GO. YOU CAN ALWAYS BUY MORE TELEVISION ADVERTISING BUT THERE’S A LIMITED AMOUNT OF TIME A CANDIDATE CAN SPEND ANYWHERE DURING THE CAMPAIGN. SO FOR HIM TO MAKE A SECOND VISIT, FOR PENCE TO BE HERE AGAIN AND NOW AGAIN, WE’RE REALLY SEEING THAT THEY ARE WILLING TO INVEST THAT MOST PRECIOUS COMMODITY, THE CANDIDATE’S TIME IN, WORKING HERE. WE’LL SEE IF IT PAYS OFF FOR THEM AS THEY GO AHEAD, BUT THEY ARE CLEARLY COMMITTED TO WISCONSIN.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S LOOK AT THE U.S. SENATE RACE. AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS DEMOCRAT RUSS FEINGOLD IS POLLING AT 49%. REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT RON JOHNSON’S 43%. HOW HAS THAT TRACKED?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THAT’S A 6 POINT MARGIN WITH REGISTERED VOTERS. THAT WAS 7 POINTS A MONTH AGO. BUT IT’S A BIGGER MARGIN AS WITH THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN THE LIKELY VOTER SET. I THINK WHAT YOU’RE SEEING IS LIKELY VOTERS — BUT IT THE OTHER WAY, DEMOCRATS ARE MORE MOTIVATED RIGHT NOW AND HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF AN ADVANTAGE WITH LIKELY VOTERS. AND THAT’S HELPING BOOST BOTH THE PRESIDENTIAL AND THE SENATE MARGINS WITH LIKELYS. BUT LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING CAN FLUCTUATE OVER THE COURSE OF WEEKS, LET ALONE THE MONTH, TWO MONTHS, ALMOST THREE THAT WE HAVE UNTIL ELECTION DAY.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

IN TERMS OF THE RESULTS IN THAT U.S. SENATE RACE, I SAW JOHNSON’S CAMPAIGN RESPONDING TO THE NUMBERS EXPLAINING THAT HE IS AN OUTSIDER. I WONDER WHAT YOU THINK OF WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SUCH A THING AS CASTING YOURSELF AS SO OUTSIDE THAT 30% OF THE VOTERS AT THIS POINT DON’T KNOW WHO YOU ARE WHICH IS THE CASE WITH RON JOHNSON.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THIS IS THE THING THE JOHNSON CAMPAIGN HAS NEEDED TO ADDRESS FOR A WHILE. THAT NON-RECOGNITION, THAT 30 OR 31% IS DOWN FROM 36 ABOUT A YEAR AGO. SO THERE HAS BEEN MAKING SOME PROGRESS. BUT RUSS FEINGOLD’S AT ABOUT 20% WHO DON’T HAVE AN OPINION ABOUT HIM. SO THERE IS STILL A GAP INCLUDING A GAP WITH JOHNSON AND FEINGOLD ON THAT.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

AS FOR FAVORABILITY OF THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES, STILL HIGH WITH TRUMP AT 65%, CLINTON AT 53% BUT HERS HAVE DROPPED.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

HERS HAVE DROPPED A LITTLE BIT. WE DID SEE MOTION IN HER DIRECTION FOLLOWING THE CONVENTIONS WHEREAS FOR HIM IT ACTUALLY TICKED DOWN JUST A POINT OR SO IN FAVORABLE RATING. I THINK WHAT THAT SHOWS IS THERE IS SOME ROOM TO MOVE THESE TWO CANDIDATES A BIT ON THIS. BUT THEY BOTH REMAIN NET NEGATIVE IN FAVORABILITY IN TERMS OF NATIONAL POLLING, THE LEAST WELL LIKED CANDIDATE SINCE THE 70s AT LEAST.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

ACCORDING TO OUR POLL TOO, AT LITTLE BIT DEEPER INSIDE. DONALD TRUMP ALSO IS SUPER HIGH UNFAVORABLE IN THE 70 TO 75% RANGE WITH WOMEN, YOUNG VOTERS, COLLEGE EDUCATED AND THEN PEOPLE WHO MAKE UNDER $40,000. NOT TO MENTION, OF COURSE, THE KIND OF SKY HIGH UNFAVORABLE WITH AFRICAN-AMERICANS, 90% OR SOMETHING. HOW DOES A CANDIDATE DO WITHOUT ALL OF THESE GROUPS OF VOTERS?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THIS IS PART OF THE REASON WHY HE IS BEHIND BY 10 POINTS WITH REGISTERED AND 15 WITH LIKELY IS MANY OF THE CONSTITUENCIES THAT HE SHOULD BE DOING WELL WITH AS A REPUBLICAN, HE IS NOT DOING AS WELL AS MITT ROMNEY DID. AND SO THAT’S AN AREA WHERE HE REALLY DOES NEED TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

AS FOR PARTY UNITY, 79% OF REPUBLICANS SUPPORT TRUMP WHILE 90% SUPPORT CLINTON. HOW DOES THE TRUMP NUMBER COMPARE TO ANY PREVIOUS CANDIDATE?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

TYPICALLY WE’D SEE PEOPLE IN THE 90s AT THIS POINT. ROMNEY 92. OBAMA WAS AT 96 FOUR YEARS AGO. IT ALSO SHOWS UP REGIONALLY. RIGHT NOW HILLARY CLINTON IS WINNING THE MILWAUKEE SUBURBAN COUNTIES BY TWO PERCENTAGE POINTS. NOW IT’S UNLIKELY THAT SUSTAINS ITSELF. THAT’S PHENOMENAL. THIS IS THE MOST REPUBLICAN AREA OF THE STATE. THE NEVER TRUMP FOLKS ARE STRONG. BUT RON JOHNSON IS WINNING THAT AREA. SO IT IS NOT AN ABANDONMENT OF THE PARTY. IT’S AN ABANDONMENT OF THE CANDIDATE. AND A QUESTION FROM NOW TO NOVEMBER IS CAN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY COME HOME TO DONALD TRUMP OR ARE THEY SPLIT BETWEEN THEIR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE AND DOWN BALLOT RACES.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S TAKE A LOOK FINALLY AT THE APPROVAL OF GOVERNOR SCOTT WALKER’S JOB PERFORMANCE. HE APPEARS TO BE VERY STILL UNDER WATER. WHAT PULLS UP APPROVAL RATINGS FOR GOVERNOR SCOTT WALKER?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

I THINK THE BIGGEST ISSUE FOR HIM IS THERE IS NOTHING GOING ON IN A WAY RIGHT NOW FOR HIM. THE LEGISLATURE IS NOT IN SESSION. THE BUDGET DOESN’T COME OUT UNTIL FEBRUARY. HE IS TRAVELING THE STATE HOLDING EVENTS. BUT THOSE ARE SMALL AFFAIRS COMPARED TO RUNNING A CAMPAIGN. AND WHERE WE DID SEE HIM TICK UP IS WHEN HE WAS MOST VISIBLE JUST BEFORE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY. ONLY TO THEN SEE HIM DROP BACK A LITTLE BIT. I WOULD LOOK FOR LATE IN THE YEAR AND AS WE GO INTO THE BUDGET CYCLE AND THE LEGISLATIVE SESSION. AT THAT POINT ANY GOVERNOR EMERGES FRONT AND CENTER. AND WE’LL SEE THEN WHETHER HE CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT OR WHETHER HE SUFFERS FROM IT.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

ALL RIGHT. CHARLES FRANKLIN, THANKS VERY MUCH.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THANK YOU.