Here & Now

Poll Has Clinton, Sanders Close, Trump Leading GOP

AS YOU WATCHED THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE LAST NIGHT AND LOOK AHEAD TO THE DEMOCRATIC DEBATE IN MILWAUKEE NEXT MONTH, YOU PROBABLY WONDER HOW YOUR CANDIDATE STACKS UP IN WISCONSIN. POLLSTER CHARLES FRANKLIN IS OUT WITH HIS MARQUETTE UNIVERSITY LAW SCHOOL POLL THIS WEEK AND IS HERE TO BREAK DOWN THE NUMBERS. CHARLES, THANKS VERY MUCH FOR BEING HERE.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

GOOD TO BE HERE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

WELL, WE’RE GOING TO RUN RIGHT INTO IT. IN ANSWER TO THE QUESTION FOR DEMOCRATS, OUR FIRST SCREEN SHOWS A TIGHTENING RACE BETWEEN CLINTON AND SANDERS, RIGHT THERE, 45% TO 43%. AS FOR TOP REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES IN THE NEXT SCREEN, TRUMP IS LOOKING AT 24% RIGHT NOW IN WISCONSIN, WITH RUBIO SITTING AT 18%. NOT NOTED, BUT TED CRUZ ISN’T THAT FAR BEHIND, WITH 16%. IT SEEMS TO ME THAT TWO THINGS STAND OUT IN THESE NUMBERS. BERNIE SANDERS AND DONALD TRUMP ARE GAINING AND HILLARY CLINTON AND BEN CARSON HAVE DROPPED OFF IN WISCONSIN. DOES THIS CORRESPOND TO NATIONAL POLLING?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

IT DOES CERTAINLY IN CARSON’S CASE. HE WAS LEADING IN NOVEMBER WHEN WE LAST POLLED. BUT HE WAS ALSO AT HIS PEAK IN NATIONAL POLLING AT THAT POINT, HAS DROPPED OFF SHARPLY IN NATIONAL POLLS AND AS YOU CAN SEE HERE, IS DOWN IN FOURTH PLACE AT 8%, QUITE A WAYS BACK. I THINK WHAT WE’VE SEEN WITH CLINTON IS THE RACE TIGHTENING. SHE WAS AHEAD OF SANDERS BY 12 IN SEPTEMBER, 9 IN NOVEMBER AND NOW JUST 2 POINTS RIGHT NOW AMONG DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME TIGHTENING IN BOTH RACES.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

THAT CORRESPONDS TO NATIONAL NUMBERS AS WELL?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

IT IS. SANDERS HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD MONTH. THE BIG QUESTION COMING UP TO IOWA IS HOW DOES HE DO THERE. WE’LL FIND THAT OUT ON MONDAY NIGHT.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

WE SHOULD NOTE TOO THAT BECAUSE OF THE SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE WITH THOSE TWO SCREENS THAT WE SHOWED, THAT THE MARGIN OF ERROR IS LARGER.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

YES. IT’S 6.5% FOR BOTH PRIMARIES BECAUSE, OF COURSE, ONLY ABOUT LESS THAN HALF OF THE VOTERS GO OUT IN THOSE PRIMARIES.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

RIGHT. LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT THE INTERESTING MATCH-UPS THAT YOU ASKED ABOUT. LOOKING AT SANDERS NEXT TO REPUBLICANS TRUMP AND RUBIO, HE DOMINATES. LOOKING AT CLINTON, SHE RUNS VERY TIGHT WITH RUBIO. WHAT’S TO BE MADE OF THAT?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

WELL, THE INTERESTING THING IS WE SAW IN NOVEMBER THAT SANDERS DOES BETTER THAN CLINTON AGAINST THE REPUBLICAN FIELD EVEN THOUGH SHE IS LEADING HIM IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY, THOUGH ONLY BY A LITTLE BIT THIS TIME. BUT SHE’S UP BY NINE AGAINST TRUMP. HE’S UP BY 18 AGAINST CRUZ. SHE’S UP BY ONE, HE’S UP BY 12. AGAINST RUBIO, SHE’S UP BY ONE, HE’S UP BY 11. WE’RE CONSISTENTLY SEEING THIS PATTERN. WHERE IT COMES FROM IS CLINTON IS DOING VERY WELL AMONG DEMOCRATIC BASE VOTERS, PEOPLE WHO CALL THEMSELVES STRONG DEMOCRATS. BUT AMONG INDEPENDENTS WHO ONLY LEAN TO THE PARTY, THAT’S WHERE SANDERS IS DOING WELL AND AMONG PURE INDEPENDENTS. SO WHEN WE GO INTO THE GENERAL ELECTION MATCH-UPS, SANDERS IS PICKING UP THOSE FOLKS IN THE MIDDLE MORE. CLINTON IS WINNING THOSE WHO ARE MORE SOLID DEMOCRATS.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

WELL, COMING TO WISCONSIN’S U.S. SENATE RACE, PITTING INCUMBENT REPUBLICAN RON JOHNSON AGAINST THE FORMER SENATE AND DEMOCRAT RUSS FEINGOLD. FEINGOLD MAINTAINS A SIZABLE LEAD. HOW DOES THAT COMPARE TO YOUR NOVEMBER POLLING?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

PRACTICALLY UNCHANGED. WE HAVE SEEN IN FOUR POLLS IN 2015 AND NOW THIS FIRST ONE THIS YEAR THAT FEINGOLD HOLDS AROUND 50%, 49% OR 50% IN ALMOST EVERY ONE OF THOSE POLLS. JOHNSON IS CONSISTENTLY IN THE HIGH 30s, 39%, 38%, 37%. SO THAT RACE IS ROUGHLY A 10 OR MAYBE AN 11-POINT RACE, AND IT HASN’T CHANGED OVER THE LAST ALMOST 12 MONTHS. I THINK IT’S ALSO CLEAR THAT VOTERS ARE NOT FOCUSING IN ON THAT. THERE’S NO CHANGE. AND THERE’S NO ADVERTISING. THE CANDIDATES ARE GETTING AROUND THE STATE. IT’S NOT REALLY A FULL-FLEDGED CAMPAIGN. VOTERS MORE FOCUSED I THINK ON THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE FOR NOW.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

YOUR NUMBERS SHOW PEOPLE STILL DON’T KNOW MUCH ABOUT THESE CANDIDATES.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

ONE OF THE FUNNIEST THINGS IN THE POLLS IS IT’S LIKE WE FORGOT WHO THEY ARE OVER THE HOLIDAYS. SENATOR JOHNSON’S DON’T KNOW RATE WENT UP FROM THE MID 30s TO 41%. FORMER SENATOR FEINGOLD’S WENT UP FROM 21% OR 22% TO 25%. SO I THINK WE KIND OF TOOK A BREAK FROM SENATORIAL POLITICS THE LAST MONTH OR SO.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT GOVERNOR WALKER’S APPROVAL RATINGS. THEY ALSO HAVEN’T IMPROVED MUCH SINCE NOVEMBER. DOES THAT SAY ANYTHING ABOUT HOW HARD IT IS TO MOVE THE NEEDLE?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

I THINK IT DOES SHOW THAT IT’S FAIRLY HARD TO RECOVER FROM A SLUMP. THE GOOD NEWS FROM WALKER’S POINT OF VIEW IS HIS SLIDE HAS STOPPED. IT’S BEEN AT ABOUT 38 FOR THE LAST THREE POLLS. HIS DISAPPROVAL NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN ONE PERCENTAGE POINT EACH TIME, NOT MUCH, BUT A LITTLE BIT DOWN. BUT THE RECOVERY IF THERE’S GOING TO BE ONE HAS NOT YET STARTED TO SHOW UP IN OUR DATA. WHEN WALKER WAS DOWN IN APPROVAL RIGHT AFTER ACT 10 IN 2011, IT TOOK ABOUT SIX TO EIGHT MONTHS BEFORE HIS APPROVAL FULLY CAME BACK UP. AND THAT WAS IN THE HEAT OF THE RECALL ELECTION, A PROCESS THAT YOU WOULD THINK WOULD BRING YOUR SUPPORTERS BACK HOME TO YOU. RIGHT NOW THERE’S NO SUCH RACE FOR HIM TO BASICALLY CAMPAIGN ON.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

A LITTLE BIT OF A ROLLERCOASTER THERE.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

YES.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

NOW TO WHETHER OR NOT VOTERS WANT TO SEE THE GOVERNOR RUN FOR A THIRD TERM. IT SEEMS THIS ALSO HASN’T MOVED MUCH SINCE YOUR SEPTEMBER POLL. BUT A THIRD TERM IS PRETTY FAR AWAY. WHAT DO THESE NUMBERS MEAN?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

I THINK IT’S SOMETHING OF THE SAME THING. WE ASKED THAT QUESTION IN SEPTEMBER RIGHT AFTER HE DROPPED OUT OF THE RACE, BUT SINCE DECEMBER THE GOVERNOR’S BEEN TALKING MORE AND MORE ABOUT A POSSIBLE THIRD TERM RUN, WHILE NOT YET COMMITTING TO ONE. SO THAT EXTRA DISCUSSION THAT HE’S BEEN PUTTING ON IT WAS THE REASON WE INCLUDED IT THIS TIME. WHAT YOU SEE IS NO CHANGE, REALLY FROM SEPTEMBER. JUST LIKE HIS JOB APPROVAL NUMBERS, THESE NUMBERS ARE NOT GOOD. THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR HIM TO REHABILITATE THEM IF THAT IS IN FACT POSSIBLE. BUT IT’S NOT HAPPENING QUICKLY IN THE SHORT TERM.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

ALL RIGHT. WE LEAVE IT THERE. CHARLES FRANKLIN, THANKS VERY MUCH.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THANK YOU.