FREDERICA FREYBERG:

THE LATEST NUMBERS FROM THE MARQUETTE UNIVERSITY LAW SCHOOL POLL SHOW RUSS FEINGOLD AND HILLARY CLINTON AHEAD IN WISCONSIN, BUT ALSO INCLUDE THE FACT THAT AN UNUSUALLY HIGH NUMBER OF VOTERS IN BOTH PARTIES SAY THEY’LL VOTE FOR NEITHER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE. MUCH MORE NOW ON THE RESULTS FROM POLL DIRECTOR CHARLES FRANKLIN. CHARLES, THANKS VERY MUCH FOR BEING HERE.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

GOOD TO BE HERE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

THE OTHER THING THAT WAS SURPRISING WAS THAT BERNIE SANDERS HAS THE HIGHEST FAVORABILITY AMONG CANDIDATES. HAVE YOU EVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THE HIGH NEGATIVES FOR THE PRESUMPTIVE CANDIDATES?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

NO. THE PRESUMPTIVE CANDIDATES, CLINTON AND TRUMP, ARE BOTH HISTORICALLY LOW. IF YOU LOOK AT NATIONAL POLLING GOING BACK TO JIMMY CARTER, THERE HAS BEEN A FEW CANDIDATES THAT WERE MORE NEGATIVE THAN POSITIVE USUALLY AS WE GOT INTO THE ELECTION IN THE FALL. THESE TWO CANDIDATES ARE BOTH WELL BELOW ANY PREVIOUS CANDIDATES. AND IT’S TRUE NOW OF BOTH PARTIES, NOT JUST ONE. TRUMP’S A BIT BELOW WHERE CLINTON IS RIGHT NOW. AND SO THERE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENCE. BUT BOTH OF THEM SUFFER FROM QUITE NEGATIVE IMAGES IN THE PUBLIC AS A WHOLE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT YOUR NUMBERS IN THE PRESIDENTIAL CONTEST. HILLARY CLINTON IS AT 42% AND DONALD TRUMP HAS 35% SUPPORT AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS IN THE STATE. JUST TO THROW BERNIE SANDERS INTO THE MIX FOR COMPARISON, YOUR NUMBERS SHOW HE LEADS OVER DONALD TRUMP 56% TO 31%. SO IS THAT SURPRISING TO YOU?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

WELL, IT’S NOT SURPRISING IN THAT IT’S THE PATTERN WE’VE SEEN ALL YEAR, BOTH THAT SANDERS IS WELL-LIKED. BETTER THAN THE OTHER TWO AND THAT HE PERFORMS BETTER IN A MATCH-UP AGAINST TRUMP. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT THE SANDERS’ PEOPLE HAVE POINTED TO THROUGHOUT THE CAMPAIGN AS AN ARGUMENT FOR WHY SANDERS SHOULD BE THE NOMINEE. CLEARLY AT THIS POINT THAT SEEMS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. AND SO IT’S A HYPOTHETICAL POINT. BUT IT IS INTERESTING THAT HE DOES WELL. INTERESTINGLY HE DOES FAIRLY WELL AMONG REPUBLICANS.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

THAT IS WILD, BUT THAT’S THIS RACE. NOW, THESE NUMBERS AS WE SHOWED ON THE SCREEN ARE REGISTERED VOTERS, BUT YOU HAVE FOUND SOME SHIFTING IN PEOPLE WHO SAY THEY ARE CERTAIN TO VOTE IN NOVEMBER, THOSE ARE THE LIKELY VOTERS. WHAT’S HAPPENED ON BOTH SIDES IN WHO’S LIKELY TO VOTE?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT FOR RIGHT NOW. REPUBLICANS DROPPED OFF IN THE PERCENT THAT SAID THEY WERE CERTAIN THEY’D VOTE IN THE FALL. THEY’RE DOWN TO 78% NOW, DOWN FROM 87% IN MARCH, AND FOR COMPARISON, IN JUNE OF 2012, THEY WERE AT 90%. SO AS A RESULT MORE REPUBLICANS NOW ARE REGISTERED VOTERS BUT FAIL TO BE LIKELY VOTERS, WHEREAS WITH DEMOCRATS IT WENT UP JUST A SMIDGEN, FROM 81% TO 83%. AS A RESULT, WHAT YOU SEE IS THE MARGIN FOR BOTH PRESIDENT AND SENATE IS TIGHTER AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS, BUT THEN IT OPENS UP A BIT AMONG LIKELY AND IT’S BECAUSE DISCOURAGED REPUBLICANS CONSIDERING NOT VOTING.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

SO LET’S GO AHEAD AND TAKE A LOOK AT THOSE SENATE NUMBERS, AND THIS IS AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS. YOUR POLLING SHOWS RUSS FEINGOLD UP ON SENATOR RON JOHNSON 45% TO 41%, BUT AGAIN WITH LIKELY VOTERS YOUR NUMBERS SHOW THAT IT IS FEINGOLD AT 51% TO JOHNSON AT 42%. SO MY QUESTION IS ALL OF THESE NUMBERS ARE ROCK SOLID, OF COURSE, BUT WHAT NUMBERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN AT THE ACTUAL POLLING PLACE?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

AND THIS IS A CRITICAL POINT. YOU GO FROM A FOUR-POINT FEINGOLD LEAD TO A NINE-POINT ON THE SENATE FROM A SEVEN TO A NINE FOR THE PRESIDENT, BUT IT’S BECAUSE REPUBLICANS AREN’T SURE THEY’LL VOTE. WHAT THIS SHOWS IS THOSE REPUBLICANS LESS LIKELY TO VOTE ARE NOT REALLY TRUMP FANS AND AS A RESULT HE DOESN’T REALLY FALL OFF THAT MUCH IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE. BUT THESE MAYBE REPUBLICANS ARE PRETTY STRONG FOR RON JOHNSON. BUT WHEN YOU TAKE THEM OUT IN THE LIKELY VOTER SAMPLE, IT REALLY BENEFITS FEINGOLD. WHETHER IT LASTS IS A BIG QUESTION. WE KNOW THAT THE CERTAINTY THAT YOU REALLY WILL VOTE DOES NOT BECOME SOLID UNTIL THE FALL. SO SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER LIKELY VOTER NUMBERS ARE BETTER PREDICTORS OF THE OUTCOME. BUT AT THIS POINT IN THE RACE, REGISTERED VOTERS ARE PRETTY GOOD, AND THESE LIKELY NUMBERS CAN MOVE UP AND DOWN AS CAMPAIGNS MOBILIZE THEIR CANDIDATES OR THEIR VOTERS OR PERHAPS TURN THEM OFF A BIT.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

VERY QUICKLY, TO CLOSE REALLY, OUR LAST NUMBERS, YOU HAVE GOVERNOR SCOTT WALKER’S APPROVAL RATINGS AND THEY ARE DOWN AGAIN FROM YOUR LAST POLL. NOW 57% DISAPPROVE AND 39% APPROVE. BRIEFLY, IDEAS WHY?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

WELL, HE HAD BUMPED UP A LITTLE BIT IN THE HEIGHT OF THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY WHEN HE WAS ACTIVELY CAMPAIGNING FOR THE WINNER, TED CRUZ, BUT ALSO IN THE TIME SINCE THEN WE’VE SEEN CONTROVERSY OVER ROLLING $100 MILLION DEBT PAYMENT INTO THE NEXT FISCAL YEAR AND ALSO THE ISSUE OF FUNDING FOR TRANSPORTATION. THESE THINGS HAVE PULLED HIM BACK DOWN TO REALLY WHERE HE’S BEEN FOR THE LAST YEAR OR SO.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

ALL RIGHT. WE NEED TO LEAVE IT THERE. CHARLES FRANKLIN, THANK YOU.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THANK YOU.