Frederica Freyberg:

The vaccine is more widely available and spring is in the air. That leaves many ready to shed safety precautions and gather in groups, some without masks or distancing. Along with warm winds coming in, there is caution because COVID-19 variants are now circulating across the U.S. and in Wisconsin. Latest numbers show 33 cases of the U.K. variant in the state, just at the time when folks are getting tired of all the restrictions. We turn now to University of Minnesota Epidemiologist Dr. Michael Osterholm, a national expert on infectious disease who was tapped early by President Biden to help guide the COVID-19 response. Thanks very much for being here.

Michael Osterholm:

Thank you for having me.

Frederica Freyberg:

So you are the sounding the alarm on these COVID variants now circulating. Why? What are you seeing?

Michael Osterholm:

Well, we really live in a tale of two cities. The tale you just heard about from Governor Evers is surely real. We are very excited about the vaccines that are coming. We are at a relatively low point in terms of the number of cases. But the second tale of the second city is really about one of being in the eye of a hurricane, where we’ve gone through that front wall, which has been a dramatic and traumatic year. And everything looks kind of blue skies right now, gentle breezes. But the back wall is coming. And that is this variant, the mutated viruses we see. And in fact, one in particular, what we call B117, which was first found in the United Kingdom, is about 40% to 60% more infectious than the previous viruses we dealt with. It’s clearly causing much more severe disease. What we’re seeing the very rapid increase in this virus’ presence in the United States. And based on what we’ve seen in Europe, this is going to be a real challenge. England, for example, still is in lockdown relative to this virus since Christmas. They just opened schools for the first time this week, but most businesses, bars, restaurants, live venues are all shut down. This is happening throughout much of Europe. And so even though we have vaccine here, it’s coming even more every day, there’s still such a small number of people vaccinated or people who have had previous infection that anywhere from 55% to 60% of our populations in the states of the upper Midwest are still vulnerable to this virus. And over the course of the next weeks we’re going to see B117 taking off. Already here in Minnesota we’re seeing extensive outbreaks beginning to develop.

Frederica Freyberg:

Meanwhile the circulation of these newer strains comes at the same time that states are opening up again. What’s your prediction about those two things happening at the same time?

Michael Osterholm:

Well, unfortunately, it’s a perfect storm. We’re doing everything but turning over our credit cards to this virus. We’re giving it every opportunity to be transmitted. You know, we’ve got spring break coming up in Florida, which right now appears to be the state with the highest level of virus there in terms of the B117. We’re seeing all these other events taking place, opening up restaurants, bars, et cetera. And opening up schools. I’ve been a very strong proponent for opening up K-8 grades because we’ve had data more months showing a very low risk there. That’s all different with B117. In Europe they actually had to shut down schools in a number of countries for months just to try to control the transmission of this virus. So I know the public doesn’t want to hear this. It’s horrible. We’re all at the ends of our rope with regard to this pandemic. But this is, I think, the last big hurdle to get over, at least in terms of the short term, with the vaccine going to have been here in May, this surge with this virus lasting 12, 14 weeks. I don’t know. But it’s going to be here for a while and we’ve got to understand that.

Frederica Freyberg:

Well, one article written about your predictions calls you “Dr. Doom.” Are you being unnecessarily pessimistic?

Michael Osterholm:

Well, you know, I’ve been called that all my career. Let me just point out that if you look at my track record on this particular pandemic, I’ve called it all along. A year ago this past Tuesday, I was on the Joe Rogan podcast when there were very few cases in this country. And I actually said I could see in the next year well over 4800 deaths. I was called “Dr. Doom” at that point. You know what the number is right now in this country. We’re at 526,000 deaths. So I will just stick with my record and say that go take a look and then can you make your own decision. You know, it’s not always good to have to bring bad news, but it’s important to bring the truth to the people.

Frederica Freyberg:

As to vaccines, you’ve also reported that you are delaying your own second dose. Why are you doing that? And should we be doing that as a matter of public health policy?

Michael Osterholm:

Well, I believe we should be doing it as a matter of public health policy and I’m not alone. The countries of England, United Kingdom and Canada have both done that right now. Based on the data, we can show that with the two first vaccines licensed, the two-dose vaccines, that you get very good protection after the first dose. We still want people to get the second dose, but right now we’d like to delay that for some weeks, 8-10 weeks til after we get through this surge. As I speak, there are over 20 plus million residents of this country over age 65 who have not had any access to the vaccine. We know this is where the most severe disease occurs, 80% of the deaths are in people over the age of 65. Most of the hospitalizations, much of the serious illness. As we go into this surge, the more people who have one dose in their arm would mean that many fewer people are likely to get severe disease, hospitalization or die. So I’m hopeful that my dose I would have gotten earlier, which I will get eventually, may go into the arm of some grandpa or grandma and save them to be around with their grandkids over the course of the next months ahead.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right. Well, thank you very much for your information, Dr. Michael Osterholm.

Michael Osterholm:

Thank you.