Here & Now

Charles Franklin on Tight Polling in Wisconsin's 2022 Races

Frederica Freyberg:

Next, the latest and last statewide poll ahead of next Tuesday’s election. Marquette University Law School poll director Charles Franklin joins us. Thanks for being here.

Charles Franklin:

Thanks for having me.

Frederica Freyberg:

We’ve got a toss-up on our hands in the governor’s race. A dead heat with Tony Evers and Tim Michels each at 48% among likely voters. This has moved in Michel’s direction since your last poll. What role do these wall to wall campaign ads have on the persuasion of voters?

Charles Franklin:

I think we’ve seen a small but consistent tightening in the governor’s race. It hadn’t bounced around very much but it’s tightened and tightened and tightened. I think the campaign has this to do with the advertising is voluminous almost — well, it is more than we’ve seen in previous races here. So people are constantly exposed to campaign messages whether that produces a tighter race or not I don’t know but certainly it means that voters have gained information about the candidates, formed opinions about them especially Tim Michels the challenger. Tony Evers as the incumbent they knew pretty well and haven’t changed as much in their views of him

Frederica Freyberg:

Obviously, turnout will be everything.

Charles Franklin:

Turnout will be everything A) because it’s always everything, but also here in Wisconsin where we’re looking at such a close race, tied at 48% in our poll — doesn’t get any closer than that. Even little changes matter and so you’re seeing both parties pulling out all the stops this week and over the weekend to try to get every last single voter they can get. Because we’re past the point where there are very many people to persuade. It’s about do you get your voters to the polls?

Frederica Freyberg:

In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Ron Johnson is up on Mandela Barnes 50% to 48% among likely voters. Since your last poll, Barnes has moved up but going into this Ron Johnson was regarded as one of the most vulnerable for re-election by the national pundits. What’s responsible among Wisconsin voters for him maintaining his staying power?

Charles Franklin:

As we saw in 2016 when Johnson won re-election the last time, he started the year viewed unfavorably by quite a bit, about 9 or 10 points more unfavorable than favorable views. But over the course of the year in each poll he’s gotten just a little bit more favorable and his net now is just barely net negative. So he’s still a little net negative but he’s certainly improved over the course of the campaign. That was the same recipe in 2016 where he started out behind but caught up. What we did see was this tightening from three weeks ago when we had Johnson up by 6 points to today up by two points but do realize that represents a two-point change in Barnes’ favor and against Johnson. We’re really looking at just two-point change on each of the candidates. That’s all it took to go from a six-point to two-point lead.

Frederica Freyberg:

In the “cares about people like me” category, both Democratic candidates running for governor and Senate have it over the Republicans. 52% of respondents said Tony Evers cares with 40% saying he doesn’t. That’s compared to Tim Michels where 43% said he cares about people like them and 46% said he doesn’t care. Do people vote based on this perception?

Charles Franklin:

We always think so but I put this question in in part to see this because here we see the Democrat has the advantage and yet the race is tied. Now maybe it’s because of having this advantage on this personal characteristic is why Evers is doing as well as he does and if he didn’t have that advantage, he might be trailing. On the other hand, it may be that our partisan ties are now so powerful in the way they structure our vote that we’ll vote for a candidate even if we don’t think they’re terrific or we’ll vote against someone even though we think they really do care more about me.

Frederica Freyberg:

In the U.S. Senate race, 49% said Mandela Barnes cares about people like them with 42% saying he doesn’t care. And for Ron Johnson it was 43% said he cares and 49% said he doesn’t. Is this mostly about rich versus working class or is there something more?

Charles Franklin:

I wonder about that. It’s interesting that despite the negative campaign ads that we’ve seen through the year, Barnes maintains this advantage even though a lot of those attacks are directed at him. We did ask for the class question, do each of these candidates care — who better understands the problems of ordinary people in Wisconsin? We put that there because we have two millionaires running against two non-millionaires. You might think social class would matter but we see the Democrats have a little bit of an advantage on that but not really a lot. It doesn’t seem like being wealthy as a candidate makes people think you don’t understand the ordinary problems.

Frederica Freyberg:

On the issues, for your polling of all registered voters, their number one issue is inflation, followed by public schools, crime, gun violence, accurate vote and abortion. Other issues fall off. This ranking of issues by importance intersects somewhat but does not fully comport with what the partisan campaigns are highlighting and their supporters are echoing. For example, Democrats, for Democrats, inflation comes in at number five and abortion comes in at number one. For Republicans, accurate vote count is number one, inflation is two and crime is three. For all registered voters and independent voters, public schools rank higher than for either Dems or GOP respondents and independents track more closely on issues to registered voters than either major party respondents. What does this say about how the parties decide the issues for the voters instead of the other way around?

Charles Franklin:

I think when we see the parties talk about those issues that are at the top of their supporters’ list but not at the top of independents or the other party, you’re really seeing an appeal to the base. Republicans have pushed crime an issue which is near the top for their voters. Democrats have pushed abortion. That’s the real difference. Who’s speaking to the independents? They’re a little mixed across the issues.

Frederica Freyberg:

We leave it there. Charles Franklin and thank you for your work.

Charles Franklin:

Thank you, now everybody go vote.