Here & Now

Charles Franklin on Crime, Abortion and Student Debt Polling

Frederica Freyberg:

53 days out from the November election and it’s anybody’s race. The latest poll showing it neck-and-neck for U.S. Senate and Wisconsin governor. Marquette Law School Poll director Charles Franklin is here with his results released this week. And hi, Charles.

Charles Franklin:

Good to be here.

Frederica Freyberg:

So this sure is a nail-biter.

Charles Franklin:

As it often is in Wisconsin. After seeing a little bit of a lead for Barnes in the Senate race, that’s now tightened to a one-point Johnson lead and in the governor’s race, a little tightening from a 4-point Evers lead to a 3-point lead, all inside the margin of error.

Frederica Freyberg:

Let’s go back to the U.S. Senate race and as you just suggested, in August, Barnes was 7 points ahead. What happened there in such a short time?

Charles Franklin:

Well, I think it was the positive side of the primary win that Mandela Barnes had a strong primary. Three of his opponents dropped out and endorsed him. He wins the primary easily. And so you get a bump from that. But while Democratic voters especially had a very positive view of him and so did independents, there was 41% without an opinion of him in August. And now it’s not the primary. Welcome to the NFL. It’s time for general election campaign advertisements, and I think that’s pretty clearly taken a toll. I don’t think it’s unexpected when you have 40% who ‘don’t know,’ you’re going to be vulnerable to that. Now some of that initial impact has happened, we have a very tight race, and we’ll see what happens in those last — what did you say, 53 days.

Frederica Freyberg:

Let’s go back then again to the governor’s race. 47% of your poll respondents support Tony Evers, 44% favor Tim Michels, but then there’s this independent candidate out there with 5%. How dangerous is that for either one of these campaigns?

Charles Franklin:

Well, her name will be on the ballot. Look, what we see with independent candidates is they reflect — their support reflects the disaffection for the two major party candidates. And people who don’t like either Evers or Michels have a name there that they can pick on the survey. Now, they’ll have that name on the ballot in November as well. Usually independent candidates get 1% or less by November. And in our polling, we see them poll in the mid-single digits in August and September and narrow down to low single digits at the end of the month — or the campaign. Suspending her campaign — it wasn’t a very visible campaign to begin with, I think it will kind of disappear, but it also is an indicator that 7%, 5% are not that thrilled with the major parties right now.

Frederica Freyberg:

You have a new question on crime, which is in the top five for both parties, but your question that we looked at goes more granular. You asked, “Do you feel safe from crime when going about your daily activities or are you worried about your safety?” People in the city of Milwaukee are the most worried about their safety by a wide margin. Is this kind of response what makes crime such a salient issue for Republicans particularly who are hitting Democrats super hard on this?

Charles Franklin:

I think there’s a contrast here that on the question about how concerned are you about crime, Republicans are quite concerned. But across personal experience, ‘do you feel safe or not,’ there’s just no party difference on that question. And so I think what we see is the use of crime or the way that people worry about crime as an issue that’s somewhat divorced from their personal experiences, and that, I think, is the main thing. We also see that city residents worry in their daily lives and are quite concerned. Suburban Milwaukee residents don’t worry much in their daily lives but are almost as concerned as city residents, and then when you move to Madison, Green Bay, La Crosse, Eau Claire, the north of the state, concern and personal fear goes way down. So most of the state, people feel pretty safe in their daily lives and aren’t as concerned, but in the city and the suburbs around Milwaukee, concern is high in both and personal concern, personal fear is especially high in the city, where it’s about a 50/50 split.

Frederica Freyberg:

Let’s go to the issue of abortion. You asked in this poll question, “Do you think Wisconsin should or should not allow a woman to obtain a legal abortion if she became pregnant as a result of a rape or incest?” Overall, 83% said Wisconsin should allow with even 70% of Republicans saying “yes” and also a total of 63% of respondents, including Republicans, oppose the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Is this why abortion is proving to be a difficult issue for Republican candidates?

Charles Franklin:

I think it clearly is. This is where being pro-life has not necessarily meant wanting these extremely severe restrictions without exceptions for rape and incest. We added that question precisely because it’s a real legal issue before the state right now with our law from 1849 and we don’t know what will go into effect. I do think it shows that there’s broad support across party for rape and incest exceptions. The challenge for lawmakers and especially Republican lawmakers is how to deal with that public opinion when you’ve also spent a career being dedicated to pro-life positions. It’s a dilemma for them quite a bit now here in the state and elsewhere.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right, Charles Franklin, thanks very much.

Charles Franklin:

Thank you.