Frederica Freyberg:

Next Tuesday, voters in 26 counties in northern Wisconsin will go to the polls for the second time during the COVID-19 health crisis. This time, it’s the 7th Congressional District special election to replace Sean Duffy, who resigned last year. “Here & Now” Senior Political Reporter Zac Schultz tells us the race is impacted by both the coronavirus and the shifting allegiance of voters in that district.

Zac Schultz:

For the last decade, Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional has been a safe seat for Republican Sean Duffy.

Sean Duffy:

But then, we get rid of all the loophole…`

Zac Schultz:

In five races, Duffy never faced much of a challenge. After redistricting in 2012, he never received less than 60% of the vote.

Dave Obey:

When I went to Congress…

Zac Schultz:

But for 40 years before that, Wisconsin’s 7th was blue, home to Democratic Dave Obey. So what happened? And what does that say about Tuesday’s special election between Republican Tom Tiffany and Democratic Tricia Zunker.

Tricia Zunker:

Well, there’s a little thing called gerrymandering that occurred in 2010.

Zac Schultz:

Most Democrats blame the 2012 redistricting plan which removed some Democratic areas of the district, like Portage County, and added in more of western Wisconsin, which typically votes more Republican.

Tom Tiffany:

But the main thing that’s changed is the Democrat Party. I talked to so many people who are John F. Kennedy Democrats who are like, “I don’t recognize my party anymore.”

Zac Schultz:

Republicans say rural voters don’t feel at home in a progressive, urban and multicultural Democratic Party. Both concepts hold some truth, but neither tells the whole story. Rural districts across the nation have been shifting away from Democrats over the last decade. But we don’t have to look far to see Democrat Ron kind in the 3rd Congressional in western Wisconsin, which is almost as rural as the 7th. And while redistricting certainly made the 7th more Republican, that doesn’t explain Sean Duffy’s margin of victory. There are 14 counties that stayed in the 7th from Dave Obey’s last decade in office. Obey never lost one of these counties from 2002 to ’08. But from 2010 to ’18, the voters moved toward the Republicans by 169%. In fact, Marathon County, Obey’s home base, shifted by 295%, a 22,000-vote swing from Democrats to Republicans.

Katie Rosenberg:

I guess a couple of things happened.

Zac Schultz:

Katie Rosenberg is the newly-elected mayor of Wausau and used to sit on the Marathon County Board.

Katie Rosenberg:

You’re seeing a lot of population shifting. You’re seeing our populations get a lot older.

Zac Schultz:

She says the shift in the 7th started happening long before Sean Duffy.

Katie Rosenberg:

You probably would have been seeing some of the more cultural changes moving along during Dave Obey’s time. But, like you said, he wasn’t seeing a lot of challenges, serious challenges.

Zac Schultz:

What this shows is the power of incumbency. The same happened with Sean Duffy. He faced a string of under-funded and relatively unknown Democratic opponents. The 7th Congressional is huge, currently spanning 26 counties and three different television markets.

Sean Duffy:

Congressman Sean Duffy.

Zac Schultz:

Political newcomers face a huge challenge in getting their name out there and raising money. And once you’re in office, you can cement your name in voters’ minds.

Katie Rosenberg:

Once you establish in-district offices, they have a direct conduit. It’s that name recognition over and over again.

Zac Schultz:

Which is why this special election is so important. Even though they’ll have to defend the seat this November, the history of the 7th says the winner may hold this seat for a long time. I’m Zac Schultz for “Here & Now.”