Frederica Freyberg:

For what’s sure to be a distinctly partisan take on things, we welcome conservative Bill McCoshen, managing partner at Capitol Consultants and Scot Ross, Executive Director of the liberal One Wisconsin Now. Thanks for being here.

Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross:

Thanks for having us.

Frederica Freyberg:

First thing, your reaction to Paul Ryan saying he’s not running for re-election. First to you.

Scot Ross:

I’d say this. Paul Ryan's been in Washington D.C. since 1992. He’s a career D.C. guy. The one thing we know about D.C. lifers is they do not leave of their own volition and that’s what Paul Ryan’s doing. Now would he have won his re-election race? It’s entirely possible. But him leaving, cutting and running now is a good sign he knows the end is near for the Republican House majority.

Frederica Freyberg:

You think that’s the case?

Bill McCoshen:

I don’t. It’s possible the Democrats could take back the House. We’ll see on that. But I don’t think that the 1st District’s in jeopardy to be honest with you. This is a deeply red district. Paul Ryan's been there 20 years. The average of his ten elections has been 63.5%. The last Democrat to win the 1st Congressional District was Barack Obama in 2008 and he won it by four points. And by the way, that was on a much different map back then. This is a deeply red seat.

Frederica Freyberg:

So he could win his re-election. But what if stuff happened around him, the big blue wave that everyone speaks of?

Bill McCoshen:

Well, I think one of the things that he’s doing that’s unusual is he’s staying as Speaker, at least for the time being. We’ll see if his conference decides to go another direction. He’s been able to raise $54 million. That’s a record amount for any Speaker. He’s raising money for the team. And now there’s two guys competing for his job who will also be out there raising money. So I think that actually benefits the Republicans.

Frederica Freyberg:

So it's a good thing because that was another question I had. What do you think it does to the Republicans’ ability to raise money for the midterms and campaign?

Scot Ross:

I mean I think they'll be able to raise money. They always have. They always have–they’ll always out-raise the Democrats. But can the Democrats raise enough to compete? I think yes. I think the small dollar fund-raising we’ve seen all around the country is going to be really good for the Democrats. I think they will have the resources to compete. I think we have a very positive atmosphere in terms of electoral things. I think the big challenge that comes out now because of this race in the 1st C.D. is the kind of conversation that’s going to be going on down there. Whereas Paul Ryan was able to stay back in Washington D.C. and not have to talk about his allegiance to Donald Trump, his fealty to Donald Trump, you’re going to have two, three, four candidates down there competing to say who is closest to Trump. That’s toxic for the Republicans.

Bill McCoshen:

We'll see. Trump won the district. He got 52% in that district. So it wasn’t toxic for him in 2016. I’m not sure that it will be in 2018 for the nominee. But that has yet to play out. I mean let’s talk about the candidates. Potentially on the Republican side, there’s David Craig, State Senator from Waukesha. Free shot for him. I expect him to get in. He’s a former Ryan staffer. Samantha Kerkman from the Kenosha area. A member of the state Assembly for a long time. She’s considering. I don’t know if she’ll get in or not but I think she’d be credible. And the final one is UW Regent Bryan Steil from Janesville, who absolutely I expect to get in.

Frederica Freyberg:

What do you make of the fact that Robin Vos however and Reince Priebus have both said no, they’re not going to do it?

Scot Ross:

I think they understand how toxic the environment is. I would be remiss if I didn’t note the one candidate who is actually in the race for the Republicans currently. Paul Nehlen who has been an avowed white supremacist and anti-Semite. He’s is going to be a part of this conversation. It is impossible for the media to keep him out of the discussion. He is a long-established candidate and that is unfortunate for the Republicans because he is so tied to Trump. He has been such a — he went after Ryan because he said Ryan wasn’t pro-Trump enough.

Frederica Freyberg:

How does that muddy this race?

Bill McCoshen:

Who knows if he stays in. Remember his battle was against Paul Ryan. He got 15% against Paul Ryan in the primary in 2016. So he wasn’t credible two years ago. I think he’s less credible in an open field. I’m not sure the media will pay as much attention to him. I think the three names I mentioned before, Steil, Kerkman and Craig, will be the front-runners of this race.

Frederica Freyberg:

What about the Dems?

Scot Ross:

I think the Dems have a spirited primary going on with two candidates from both sides of the district. They’re talking about the issues. They’re having an actual conversation in the 1st C.D. about issues that matter for Wisconsinites. That’s a really important thing because for so long there wasn’t that conversation.

Bill McCoshen:

Democrats are doing everything they can to rig this primary, just like they did for Hillary Clinton against Bernie Sanders. They want Randy Bryce to be the nominee. The truth is Randy Bryce is not liberal enough for that –or is too liberal for that district. And he’s a three-time loser. He lost the seat for state assembly. He lost the seat for the school board in Racine. He came in 7th out of 10. And then he lost a state senate race. This guy has never won before. Yet he’s their poster guy and they’re trying to knock Cathy Myers out of the race. So this is once again, Democrats are trying to rig the primary system.

Scot Ross:

I appreciate Bill’s insight into the Democratic primary given his long association with Democratic primaries.

Bill McCoshen:

You're welcome.

Scot Ross:

But let’s talk about the three Republicans beside Paul Nehlen. You’ve got Dave Craig was a Paul Ryan staffer, whose claim to fame is he did a bill that was so bad that even — related to guns that even Scott Walker wouldn’t sign onto it, which is the putting concealed weapons in schools. You’ve got Sam Kerkman who has raised about $120,000 after ten years in office. And you’ve got Bryan Steil, who is a UW Regent. Yeah, somebody who’s clinging to higher education is definitely the front-runner in a Republican primary.

Frederica Freyberg:

Meanwhile, Peter Barca says he’s considering it. What do you think of that?

Bill McCoshen:

I think it’s legitimate. I don’t think Randy Bryce is going to get this nomination. I think Democrats are going to look back and say, “Wow, this is a different playing field now. We have an open seat. Let’s get a credible candidate.” I think you have to look at Jim Kreuser, the county executive of Kenosha County. Cory Mason, the mayor of Racine.

Frederica Freyberg:

He’s already said no.

Bill McCoshen:

Peter Barca is another possibility. I think Randy Bryce has benefited from the uber-liberal money on the east and the west coast and I think that he’s been a useful tool for them up to this point in time. But their goal was to take down Paul Ryan, who’s no longer there.

Frederica Freyberg:

What do you think about Peter Barca?

Scot Ross:

I mean Peter Barca was the Assembly minority leader. He served his constituents well. I think Bill’s trying to concoct something out of nothing. That there’ cacophony and derision in the Democratic side. And I get it. That’s your job. But I think when push comes to shove, you’ve got two candidates who were in there for quite some time. One with some sizable resources and the other one with good resources as well. They both have great profiles for the district.

Frederica Freyberg:

So I kind of hear you saying that Peter Barca is not your pick?

Scot Ross:

I — you know, I always joke, I've written so many concession night speeches for Democrats in primaries that it’s on my resume as a skill set. So I don’t predict in primaries. For Representative Barca, he’d have to give up his seat to do it. Now that’s why Dave Craig has emerged as a real contender ’cause he doesn’t have to give up his state senate seat. He’s not up. Robin Vos has to give up his seat. Sam Kerkman would have to give up her seat. But I think that’s where you’re seeing a lot of Assembly people on the Republican side pass so far. Because again, if the 1st Congressional District is so dark red, Bill, as you assert, you would think people would be running to take that opportunity to get the $175,000 a year salary. ‘Cause again, Paul Ryan, one thing not to forget, in two years Paul Ryan is going to get a $79,000 a year annual pension for life paid for by people whose benefits he has been trying to cut his entire career.

Bill McCoshen:

The white men in the smoke-filled rooms are trying to rig this primary for Randy Bryce. Don’t count Cathy Myers out of that Democratic primary. This is the year of the woman. And she’s raised decent amount of money. She’s going to be heard.

Frederica Freyberg:

What does the fact that Paul Ryan is not running for re-election mean for Scott Walker, if anything?

Bill McCoshen:

I don’t think it means much. I suspect that Paul Ryan will still be a player in the 2018 elections and I'll tell you why. He’s got $11 million left in the bank. There’s no question in my mind. I’ve said on this program before that Donald Trump and Ron Johnson do not win in Wisconsin in 2016 without Ryan's money. He funded the infrastructure and I think he will be asked and he will deliver on that again this time around. So look for some of that $11 million to go to the Republican Party of Wisconsin to fund the infrastructure. He’s going to be important to Walker’s victory.

Scot Ross:

The troika of Bradley Foundation Gen Xers: Reince Priebus, Paul Ryan and Scott Walker. There’s only one left and it’s Scott Walker. And that’s going to be a challenge for him again because Paul Ryan’s leaving because Donald Trump is toxic for the general electorate. I think that’s where things are going. Mark my words. 2022 primary former Governor Scott Walker versus former House Speaker Paul Ryan duking it out for the U.S. Senate race.

[laughter]

Frederica Freyberg:

You don’t buy it that Paul Ryan is leaving because Donald Trump is toxic.

Bill McCoshen:

He's one of the guys that actually when he says he’s leaving to spend more time with his family, he’s actually being honest about it. This is a guy who is a family man. If you look on his Facebook site or any of his social media or if you know Paul Ryan at all which I do, loves to take his kids hunting or skiing or on different excursions on the weekends. But he’s tired of being a weekend dad. That’s a true statement.

Frederica Freyberg:

But who doesn’t love their family?

Bill McCoshen:

Well, a lot of them give up a lot of time with their family. They make a lot of sacrifices for the ability to serve the public. And in Paul Ryan’s case, he said 20 years is enough. It’s time to go back to the family.

Scot Ross:

Bill has a lot of insights, but I think that he would agree that Paul Ryan's plan had been to currently be sitting in his six years, being the vice president of the United States if things had gone Paul Ryan’s way. So do we think Paul Ryan would be suddenly leaving with two years left in his second term? Would he be leaving to spend more time with his family? I think not.

Frederica Freyberg:

We need to leave it there. Scot Ross, Bill McCoshen. Thank you.

Scot Ross, Bill McCoshen:

Thanks.