Here & Now

What to Expect in a New Year, New Administration

Frederica Freyberg:
In tonights look ahead, we gaze into the political crystal ball with our clairvoyant political panelists. Bill McCoshen and Scot Ross, who we asked to bring their predictions for all things politic in 2019. Happy New Year to both of you

Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross:
Happy New Year.

Frederica Freyberg:
We will start with Bill’s first prediction and that is that the Republican Party of Wisconsin will replace Brad Courtney as chairman by April. Is this kind of like what happened to Mike McCarthy?

Bill McCoshen:
Well, he’s had a good run. Let’s put it that way. I think the party, grassroots faithful are looking for a new direction. Senator Ron Johnson is now the titular head of the party and has asked Reince Priebus, the former chairman, both of Wisconsins party and the RNC to do an autopsy on where things went wrong with the Walker campaign and the Vukmir campaign. Obviously they had success at the legislative level but I think there will be a price to pay for the losses at the top of the ticket and that will fall to Brad Courtney.

Frederica Freyberg:
What do you think went wrong?

Scot Ross:
They went 0-6 in the statewide races and hey, you know, Paul Ryan and Scott Walker both need jobs.

Frederica Freyberg:
Hes going on the speaker circuit which is interesting.

Bill McCoshen:
He is going on the speaker circuit. I think part of it is Courtney has done a nice job. I mean he was around in ’12 for the recall and ’14 and ’16 so there’s a lot of credit to be had and I think most folks are grateful for the time he spent with the party. But they’re also looking for a new direction and moving forward.

Frederica Freyberg:
All right. Let’s look ahead to your number one prediction. Governor Evers will deliver on his promises to improve education, health care and transportation but how tough does that become if majority Republicans won’t work off the Evers’ budget but draft their own?

Scot Ross:
I think the big challenge here for the Republicans is the fact that the will of the people was that they wanted change and they elected Tony Evers to be the next governor of the state of Wisconsin. And he has said he is going to prioritize education. He’s going to invest in kids and schools. He’s going to bring respect back to teachers. On health care, he’s going to improve access. We’re going to take the Medicaid money which we should have been taking a long time. And he’s going to focus on infrastructure and doing the responsible, adult, common sense Wisconsin values thing of not putting spending on a credit card. Coming up with real solutions, bringing people together and solving problems.

Frederica Freyberg:
Do you believe that Tony Evers will be able to deliver on those promises?

Bill McCoshen:
No. Tony Evers ran on those things. He won on those things. He’s going to struggle with the Republican legislature. I think they’ll find an agreement on education. It won’t be at $4.1 billion. It will be significantly less but it will be a nice increase, nonetheless. He’ll find an agreement with Vos on transportation and potentially Fitzgerald on health care but they’ll be at disalignment.

Frederica Freyberg:
We get to some of that later on in some of your predictions. Number two for you, Bill, was Governor Evers could become the first governor in modern history to veto an entire state budget. Then what happens?

Bill McCoshen:
Well, we could be here a long time. The latest a budget’s gone, you’d have to go all the way back to the Pat Lucy era where it went into November.

Frederica Freyberg:
Oh my gosh.

Bill McCoshen:
I think it’s important for Speaker Vos and Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald to find alignment on all the major issues and to pass a budget together rather than fighting amongst themselves which they’ve done recently. But if they ignore the executive, Tony Evers in this case, he could easily veto the whole thing. That’s the governor’s single greatest power in the state of Wisconsin and he may use it in this particular situation.

Scot Ross:
Yeah, I think we remember that boss Vos and Fitzgerald couldn’t pass a budget last time when they controlled all of state government with Governor Walker. Let’s not forget, Vos was burned by them. He got held out at the last second by that asylum they call the Republican Senate Caucus and they’ve even gotten more wacky with Senator Jacque now. So I think they have much bigger problems than Governor Evers has when it comes to passing a budget.

Frederica Freyberg:
Lets go along to your prediction number two. Republicans will regret putting up another extremist, Scott Walker crony for the Supreme Court race. Why will they regret that?

Scot Ross:
You know, the last time that they did that, the voters soundly rejected Scott Walker’s lawyer and now they put up somebody in Brian Hagedorn who is more extreme, more controversial, more beholden and more political. They want — you know, people of Wisconsin plainly want somebody who’s independent, who respects the law and who has experience. That’s what they get with Lisa Neubauer. That’s not what they get with Brian Hagedorn.

Bill McCoshen:
There was a last minute effort to find another candidate to get into that race at the end of December. That was unsuccessful. Hagedorn has been in the race essentially nine months. I’m concerned about that race moving forward. Republicans are going to have to rally the troops in order to win that in April.

Frederica Freyberg:
Thats kind of an honest prediction on your part, Bill.

Scot Ross:
Are you saying mine aren’t?

Bill McCoshen:
I could say that.

Frederica Freyberg:
Moving along to national politics, Bill, you say that Donald Trump will get another Supreme Court nominee confirmed in 2019. What will that mean if that’s true for cases like the Obamacare case and redistricting, the one out of Wisconsin?

Bill McCoshen:
Theres already a conservative majority on the United States Supreme Court. I don’t know whether it will be Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who’s 85 with significant health issues. Or Stephen Breyer, who’s 80. Both would be in the liberal camp on the United States Supreme Court but I think one of them will leave the court in 2019 and Donald Trump will not use the old rule during the Obama era and wait for the next presidential election. He and Mitch McConnell will jam a Supreme Court nominee through the United States Senate.

Frederica Freyberg:
And what do you think?

Scot Ross:
When I heard about that prediction, I thought you were saying that Kavanaugh would leave in disgrace but I don’t see that happening. I think that — you know, the best thing I see on the internet is the prediction that somebody who is going to be 100 — live to be 150 years old has already been born and let’s all hope that’s Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

Frederica Freyberg:
Thats what all of that ilk hope for. Number three, from you, Scott, the new Democratic House majority will stop Trump in his tracks and hold him accountable in ways in which the Republicans utterly refused. But right about now, we’re seeing this standoff, right, over the government shutdown and it doesnt seem like the Democratic House is forcing the president’s hand.

Scot Ross:
I would say this. If they did a vote, you know, they did a vote the other night, right off the bat to try to reopen the government. I mean, I could not be more proud of seeing all the photos of the diversity of the Democratic House Caucus and the fact that so many of those people are going to have a real voice that has to be listened to because they are in the majority. I think it’s going to be excellent. I also love the fact that Donald Trump is going to be held accountable six ways to Sunday by the committees that are now headed by Democrats.

Frederica Freyberg:
What about the six ways to Sunday being held accountable?

Bill McCoshen:
Democrats will overreach and it’ll ultimately cost them in 2020. I think if Pelosi is smart about this, if Trump is smart about this, they can find a way to work together both on immigration, on health care potentially and on infrastructure. Those are things that Trump wants to get done that he struggled with on the far right, both in the United States Senate and in the House and he may have an ally in Nancy Pelosi. There are areas where they could work together.

Scot Ross:
Trump has never shown he’s willing to work with Democrats. He is–

Bill McCoshen:
The art of the deal.

Scot Ross:
Absolutely, absolutely unwilling to do it and the Democrats are going to benefit from that. Probably win the Senate back in 2020.

Frederica Freyberg:
Wow, theres a prediction. Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross. Thanks very much and Happy New Year again.

Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross:
Great to be here.