Here & Now

Anthony Chergosky on Wisconsin 2026 Governor Primary Tumult

Frederica Freyberg:
Bombshell news in the Democratic primary for governor, former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes dropped out of the race yesterday. Here to unpack the news. UW-La Crosse Professor of Political Science Anthony Chergosky. And thanks very much for being here.

Anthony Chergosky:
Thank you.

Frederica Freyberg:
So first of all, what’s your reaction?

Anthony Chergosky:
Just another plot twist in this campaign. I mean, for months and months, Fred, there wasn’t much happening in the Democratic primary. Not a lot of activity, not a lot of voter attention. And now in the month of July, everything has happened all at once. And so it’s just been a flurry of fast-moving political developments all leading up to that key primary election.

Frederica Freyberg:
Though trailing, Barnes was polling second to Francesca Hong and had solid name recognition from his run for Senate against Ron Johnson. What is afoot here?

Anthony Chergosky:
Yeah. I mean, he did have excellent name recognition coming into the campaign. He had a national donor base that he could draw on. But ultimately, it seemed like he just wasn’t able to catch up to Hong. It’s worth noting, Fred, that during the debate this week, he did not directly go after Hong. He did not go negative on Hong. If anything, Barnes was more focused on David Crowley than he was the front runner. To me, it symbolized how Barnes just couldn’t quite get going in this campaign. I think he started the campaign in general election mode, really focusing on Tom Tiffany more than his Democratic opponents. But that might have been a misstep because while he was trying to portray a sense of inevitability around his nomination, Francesca Hong was quietly building a lead.

Frederica Freyberg:
But if Barnes dropping out had anything to do with the Journal Sentinel reporting about him using his political influence to basically get dates, though nothing criminal reported there, he would have known that that was out there, but he must have considered it not to be disqualifying.

Anthony Chergosky:
Yeah, it’s one of the mysteries of this campaign. Like, why did this come out now? Not to mention, Fred, why did this not come out during the 2022 U.S. Senate race? I mean, Barnes’s whole argument behind why he could be electable this time around was that all the bad stuff was out on the table. The 2022 U.S. Senate campaign was a brutal, negative campaign that had revealed all of the bad stuff, and so there would be nothing new this time around. Turns out that wasn’t true. And so it just undermines one of the justifications for his candidacy and one of the arguments he made in favor of his electability.

Frederica Freyberg:
And yet what’s being reported and was reportedly kind of investigated by the state Democratic Party, it seems thin.

Anthony Chergosky:
You know, it really raises the question to me what his future might hold in the Wisconsin Democratic Party, like how people within the party are going to view this report, what came out in the Journal Sentinel, the investigation that was conducted by the party, what his future might hold in light of this report, plus his two unsuccessful runs for office.

Frederica Freyberg:
So Barnes dropping out, where does it leave the remaining candidates, including Evers-endorsed Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley?

Anthony Chergosky:
Yeah, I mean, for David Crowley, the question is, if he can get some of those Barnes supporters and if he can quickly catch up to Francesca Hong because the clock is ticking and poll after poll shows that Hong is the front-runner. Now I can see signs that Hong is already subtly pivoting to the general election. She got through the debate just fine. I was stunned that she did not have any of her opponents go after her during the debate. I’m sure her team was elated that she got through the debate unscathed, because I thought that was the last and best opportunity for her opponents to shake up the campaign. So I was expecting all these fireworks and all these negative attacks on Hong, and that just didn’t happen. So she’s comfortably the front-runner. But like you said, Evers is now getting behind Crowley. He had the endorsement earlier. He’s raising money for Crowley. He’s getting out on the trail. So it remains to be seen if Crowley can make a last-ditch effort to catch up with Hong.

Frederica Freyberg:
Meanwhile, Republicans and their candidate in Tom Tiffany have got to be loving this because even Democrats say this is full on chaos.

Anthony Chergosky:
Oh, it absolutely is. And Tom Tiffany has been running a very positive, biographical style campaign trying to develop his political brand outside of his congressional district. I think Republicans and Tiffany are now also starting to shift into general election mode, gearing up for a race against Francesca Hong.

Frederica Freyberg:
And what a race it will be. Anthony Chergosky, thanks very much.

Anthony Chergosky:
Thank you.