Frederica Freyberg:

National polling shows 70% of Americans think abortion should be between a woman and her doctor. With 58% saying abortion should be legal in all or most cases. In Wisconsin, public opinion surveys show about 60% of respondents think abortion should be legal in all or most cases. If those are the majority opinions on the matter, where does that leave pro-life politicians just ahead of the midterm elections, which include races for governor, U.S. Senate and attorney general? We take this question and others to senior political reporter Zac Schultz, who joins us from the Capitol. Thanks for doing so, Zac.

Zac Schultz:

Thanks, Fred.

Frederica Freyberg:

So with polling showing this majority support of Roe v. Wade, how does that translate to what voters do at the polls?

Zac Schultz:

Well, we have to remember that polling has been pretty static for at least a decade or longer that we’ve been taking these polls. Opinions haven’t changed very much. But the voting trends don’t match up. And this isn’t the only issue where what people approve of polling-wise doesn’t translate to how they will actually cast a ballot in the election box. There are a lot of people on either side, left or right, who are very firmly one issue voter. They vote on abortion only. And then a lot of people in the middle who may say they feel one way or the other, but that’s not the reason that they cast a ballot for a member of one party or another. And so we don’t know whether this will actually change that. Remember, anyone under the age of 70, this is the first time in their lifetimes that they’re voting on abortion in the ballot in Wisconsin. Before this, Roe v. Wade was always a constitutional requirement that meant no matter their feeling, no matter who they voted for, the right to access abortion rights were not going to change in Wisconsin but that may likely not be the case this fall.

Frederica Freyberg:

Does it at all complicate things for candidates like Rebecca Kleefisch or other Republicans who are staunchly antiabortion, this kind of public sentiment about it?

Zac Schultz:

Well, it’s a question of, for them, of whether those voters will change their minds and actually vote on abortion if they believe that abortion access should be legalized. That could be a risk which is why you’re seeing a lot of Republicans not saying very much on this issue right now. On the flip side, Democrats are trying to make it a bigger issue to see if some of those voters may change their minds. But there’s absolutely a risk here. I think the more likely electoral impact could be energizing the base in off years. In these gubernatorial elections, you see turnout go down quite a bit and often it’s whichever party loses more voters from the presidential election is likely to lose overall. If you can retain those voters, if you have more voter enthusiasm over an issue like abortion, you could see higher turnout. Whoever retains that enthusiasm is more likely to help their candidate.

Frederica Freyberg:

Meanwhile Democrats like Tammy Baldwin are calling to codify Roe v. Wade and eliminate the filibuster to do it, how likely is that?

Zac Schultz:

It’s not likely at all. I mean, Democrats have talked about eliminating the filibuster throughout this session but they don’t have the votes to do it. They didn’t before, they don’t now. This is just to put everyone on the record going into the fall. Democrats hope to try and pin this on some of these key battleground issues of getting someone like Senator Ron Johnson on the record. He’s already on the record. We know where he stands, but they want to put one more vote on the record.

Frederica Freyberg:

Meanwhile the GOP is so very angry about the leak. Is that a tell that they’d rather speak to that than the draft opinion itself?

Zac Schultz:

Well, it’s traditional in politics that if you don’t want to talk about the thing because you don’t think it helps you, then you talk about process. That happens historically whenever there’s a controversy. It’s either process or it’s the issue that people are concerned about. So it’s process right now for Republicans. If they see a shift where they think this actually helps them, then they’ll talk about it. If not, they’ll focus on what matters to them most. And there’s a trap here for Democrats too because if they focus strictly on abortion leading into the fall elections but it doesn’t shift some of those traditional Republicans or independents who support abortion but vote on other issues, then they lose the opportunity to win those voters if they’re not talking about the economy or jobs or other things that matter most to them.

Frederica Freyberg:

Down to the nuts and bolts of it, it is true that there’s nothing Tony Evers could do about Roe v. Wade being overturned because he can’t veto a statute like Wisconsin’s that criminalizes abortion and has been on the books for more than 170 years, he can’t veto an existing statute?

Zac Schultz:

No, he has no power in this area. He has some executive authority for how some state agencies might interact but really, he’s out of this question when it comes to laws right now. The attorney general does have an impact. We’ve already seen Democrat Josh Kaul say that he doesn’t plan on using any DOJ resources to prosecute anyone over these laws in the future and Republicans have said that they likely would at least entertain those thoughts, so it’s more likely to play out on that race than with the governor.

Frederica Freyberg:

How important does all of this make the next Wisconsin Supreme Court race in Wisconsin for both sides?

Zac Schultz:

Well, it was already a pivotal race, it was already going to be the highest spending Supreme Court race in state history. Just because we know right now it’s 4-3 conservative power with Justice Brian Hagedorn swinging occasionally with the liberals in voting with them much to the chagrin of a lot of the conservatives but this is for Pat Roggensack’s seat, she’s expected to retire and that seat will determine the balance of the court. So on this issue and so many more issues, it was already going to be a huge thing. So it will be a lot of attention placed on that and so many other issues for that race next April, not this fall.

Frederica Freyberg:

Right, so the reason it would be important before this court is because it is likely that notwithstanding the fact that the governor, should he win the election, he couldn’t veto it, but then it’s likely to go to the legislature potentially to tighten up the language in our existing statute or face lawsuits otherwise.

Zac Schultz:

Yeah, if Governor Evers is the governor, then absolutely we could see constitutional challenges for this old law and if Republican governor is in place, then we’ll see constitutional challenges in there so this will still likely end up in the courts as everything else does here in Wisconsin.

Frederica Freyberg:

That’s right. Zac Schultz, thank you. Thank you so much.

Zac Schultz:

Thank you, Fred.