Here & Now

2020 Political Predictions from Bill McCoshen and Scot Ross

Frederica Freyberg:

For some election year foresight, we now turn to our political panelists Scot Ross and Bill McCoshen. A full week into the new year is too late for resolutions but it’s not too late for 2020 predictions and that’s what we asked our pundits to provide tonight. Happy New Year to Bill McCoshen and Scot Ross.

Scot Ross:

Happy New Year.

Bill McCoshen:

Thanks for having us.

Frederica Freyberg:

So on these predictions, we start with you, Bill. Your first one is that House Democrats will lose 14 seats and come back with a slim, unmanageable majority, 218, in 2021. So why do you think that?

Bill McCoshen:

That’s as of today. We’re in January. That could change. And they could lose the House. But as of today, there’s 232 Democrats, 198 Republicans, one independent and four vacancies including the Wisconsin 7th District which won’t get decided until May. My contention is that Nancy Pelosi will likely keep her majority, but by the slimmest of margins. There are 32 Democrats who are in seats that Donald Trump won. I think at least half of those will flip back to the Republicans.

Frederica Freyberg:

What do you think about that?

Scot Ross:

I think that Democrats and independents literally ran to the polls in 2018 to reject Donald Trump. I think when he’s on the ballot, it’s going to be even more distinct. I think they grow the majority.

Frederica Freyberg:

Well, I guess it’s a prediction and we’ll see, right? Let’s go to yours, Scot. You say that the Democratic presidential candidate will win Wisconsin’s ten Electoral College votes, leading to a Democratic president January 20, 2021. So you see the momentum for that?

Scot Ross:

Yup. Three reasons. One, the Democratic candidate will be a better candidate and a better human being than the racist, sexist, xenophobic nightmare the Republicans will put up. Second, they’re right on the issues whether it’s higher wages, better health care, student loan reform, ending the tax cuts that have given companies like IBM, Netflix and others hundreds of millions of dollars in tax breaks when they’re making — Amazon, Amazon for instance. $11 billions in profit. It actually got $129 million back as a result of the Trump tax cuts. The third reason is because Democrats are not going to take Wisconsin for granted this time. They’re already doing communications, attacking Trump on a daily basis in the local media, in the state media, in digital and at the doors. That’s going to be the key. Wisconsin will be a Democratic state in 2020.

Bill McCoshen:

Trump wins Wisconsin. He takes the ten electoral votes, just like he did four years ago. Democrats are well on their way to nominating someone who will keep at least a portion of their party home just like Hillary Clinton did.

Frederica Freyberg:

Why do you think that?

Bill McCoshen:

Joe Biden. AOC has already said the progressives won’t come out for Joe Biden. He’s likely to be their nominee at this point.

Scot Ross:

I did not realize you were the AOC whisperer.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right. Let’s move to some state political predictions for 2020. Here is Bill McCoshen’s. The GOP will win two out of the following three Senate seats. Either the 10th in western Wisconsin, the 30th in Green Bay or the 32nd in La Crosse and come back with a record 21 seats. So these are all interesting districts.

Bill McCoshen:

Right.

Frederica Freyberg:

You’re suggesting that Jennifer Shilling goes down.

Bill McCoshen:

Let’s talk about the other two. The 10th District had been Republican for a very long time. This is along the Mississippi River. Sheila Harsdorf, her brother Jim before that. This has been primary a Republican seat that Patty Schachtner won in a special election during the Walker years. Donald Trump got 55% in that seat. Scott Walker got 54. Even Leah Vukmir got 53% in that seat. That is a Republican seat. 53% on average Republican seat. So just normal performance would put a Republican back in that seat. That would put Republicans at 20. The other one I think they can get is now Dave Hanson’s seat, the 30th in Green Bay. Donald Trump got 52, Scott Walker got 52. Vukmir did not win that seat but she got 48%. That seat on the numbers is about a 51%. Dave Hanson announced this week he’s retiring. He’s a strong candidate. I think he would have been the favorite to get re-elected there but as an open seat, that gives Republicans an opportunity to get their 21st seat, which would be their largest Senate majority in 50 years.

Frederica Freyberg:

What about Jennifer Shilling’s district?

Bill McCoshen:

Shilling’s seat is a tougher one. Trump does really well along western Wisconsin. It’s entirely likely Ron Kind will be targeted by the RNC again. If the Republican Party nationally puts the resources in that district, then there’s a good chance that that seat could be competitive again. The last time she won by less than 2,000 votes.

Frederica Freyberg:

Comments on this?

Scot Ross:

Couple things. One, Ron Kind didn’t have an opponent last time. If Ron Kind has an opponent and puts $3 million on TV up there saying here’s what the Democrats offer, it’s going to be bad news for the Republicans. It wasn’t competitive last time. The second thing is, listen, people are sick of the dysfunction of state government. And the dysfunction of state government exists because of Robin Vos and Scott Fitzgerald. That’s why Governor Evers had to issue homework to the Legislature on issues like on clean water and clean air and al that sort of thing. If you act like a child Robin, they’re going to treat you like a child.

Frederica Freyberg:

We don’t have a lot of time left but your last prediction is that as a result of all the attention in Milwaukee of the DNC convention that people are going to move there after they see Milwaukee?

Scot Ross:

Absolutely. We got 15,000 volunteers are being put together to support and to promote to the world how great Milwaukee is. There is this incredible opportunity to bring people together that’s going to last long beyond the convention and we are going to definitely have — Milwaukee’s going to shine. I think people are going to come there.

Bill McCoshen:

I hope he’s right.

Frederica Freyberg:

That’s right. We all like that.

Scot Ross:

Build it and they’re going to stay.

Frederica Freyberg:

Bill and Scot, thanks very much.

Scot Ross, Bill McCoshen:

Thank you.