Anthony Chergosky on Wisconsin's 2024 Presidential Primary

Frederica Freyberg:
The good news for the major party presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump: they, of course, won in Tuesday’s election. The bad news: they lost votes either to other candidates or to the uninstructed vote. What to make of this as the latest national Marquette Law School poll shows it an even race. We turn to Anthony Chergosky, political science professor at UW-La Crosse. Thanks very much for being here.

Anthony Chergosky:
Thank you for having me.

Frederica Freyberg:
So Joe Biden saw more than 42,000 people vote uninstructed, presumably over his position on Israel and Gaza. He only won Wisconsin in 2020 by 20,000 votes. How big of a red flag is this for Joe Biden?

Anthony Chergosky:
I think it’s a red flag for sure because Wisconsin was decided so narrowly in 2020. In fact, the uninstructed movement had a goal of 20,000 votes and they easily surpassed that. It was a symbolic goal because 20,000 was roughly the margin of victory for Joe Biden in the last presidential election here in Wisconsin between Biden and Trump. So in Wisconsin, any little movement of voters can make the difference, any little shift here and there can make a difference. So there are certainly some cause — there’s certainly some cause for concern for the Biden campaign.

Frederica Freyberg:
How likely do you think it would be that he would change direction on his support of Israel because of this?

Anthony Chergosky:
I’m not sure how likely it would be, Fred, but what I can say is there’s a long time between now and the November election. One of the unusual aspects of this general election campaign is just how long it’s going to be. There’s a lifetime between now and November, so I can imagine that the policies and the issues are going to evolve and we could be in a very different place by the time we get to November.

Frederica Freyberg:
On the other side of the aisle, Donald Trump saw more than 120,000 people vote for someone else on the ballot, like a Nikki Haley, and he had his own 19,000 uninstructed voters. Is this worse for him or for Biden at this point?

Anthony Chergosky:
I think the two sides have different concerns. For Biden, the uninstructed movement had specific issues with the Biden administration. They had specific objections to the policies and the approaches of the Biden administration. On the Republican side, we’ve seen this time and time again in states during this nomination process, where there’s a certain chunk of Republican voters who just aren’t there when it comes to voting for Donald Trump in November or feeling like they’re ready to vote for Donald Trump in November. We’ve seen Nikki Haley consistently peel off key voters in the suburbs, those white-collar professionals, college graduates who have always been problematic for Donald Trump within the Republican coalition. So Biden and Trump have concerns coming out of the April election here in Wisconsin, but those concerns are very different in nature.

Frederica Freyberg:
So what breaks loose if an RFK, Jr. independent makes it onto the ballot?

Anthony Chergosky:
I think RFK could have a key impact on the election, not because he has any shot of winning Wisconsin, but because he could take on that spoiler role. And from the April election results here in Wisconsin, we know that there are Democrats who are unhappy with Biden. We know there are Republicans who are unhappy with Trump. The key question is if third party candidates can be that landing spot for voters on either side who are not happy with the candidate of their party. We could also see unhappy voters on either side plug their nose and vote for the candidate of their party. So a long time to go between now and November, but I do think the influence of third-party candidates is well worth watching.

Frederica Freyberg:
So Republicans won their two constitutional amendments in Wisconsin prohibiting private grants in running elections. How suggestive is that win when it comes to election outcomes in November?

Anthony Chergosky:
I am a bit hesitant about making predictions for November based on the April elections. We’re going to continue to see substantially higher voter turnout in November and there’s a lot of time for the campaign to play out between now and November, a lot of time for voters to make up their minds. And the psychology of voters, the decision-making process of the voters is going to change as we get closer and closer to November. So I’m not sure I would read too much into it, but what I can say is that Republicans were effective at messaging those constitutional amendments. They were effective at firing up their base on the issue of election integrity.

Frederica Freyberg:
So meanwhile, Donald Trump continues to campaign on the lie, frankly, that he beat Joe Biden in Wisconsin in the last election including this week in Green Bay. Why is this persuasion so enduring in Wisconsin and elsewhere?

Anthony Chergosky:
Because it comes from the top. Donald Trump is the unquestioned leader of the Republican Party and so Republican voters are going to respond when Donald Trump says something. Fred, I think it speaks to the bind that Republicans are in. We’ve had people, higher ups in the Wisconsin Republican Party, people like Ron Johnson, trying to encourage Republican voters to vote early, vote by mail, but then Donald Trump comes to Green Bay and casts doubt on votes by mail. He calls it a recipe for fraud. So with the Trump influence in the Republican Party, frequently you have Donald Trump saying one thing even as party leaders are trying to push the party into a different direction, such as with vote by mail.

Frederica Freyberg:
All right. We leave it there. Anthony Chergosky, thanks very much.

Anthony Chergosky:
Thank you.