Anthony Chergosky on Wisconsin's 2024 Partisan Primary Vote

Frederica Freyberg:
Wisconsin just came through its fall primary election this week, and there were some pretty surprising results, including two constitutional amendment ballot measures that voters rejected 57% to 42%. Those questions would have required legislative approval before a governor could spend federal money coming into the state and would have barred future legislatures from giving that power away. “Here & Now” reporter Nathan Denzin checked in with UW-La Crosse political science professor Anthony Chergosky for his take on the primary results and started by asking him who stood out as winners.

Anthony Chergosky:
Governor Evers and the Democratic Party because the vote against the constitutional amendments was the decisive winner in that election. So when we look at that election, the ballot measures were worded in a very odd, confusing, lawyerly way. And so voters, when they looked at the text on the ballot for the amendments, they didn’t have much to work with. That meant that Evers and the Democrats could make a big influence on voters through their campaign messaging. And Evers and the Democrats did indeed make a strong push against those amendments. They were able to engage and mobilize their base, and that led to the amendments getting defeated.

Nathan Denzin:
So those amendments were defeated by a pretty large margin. Was that surprising at all to you?

Anthony Chergosky:
It was in the sense that a low turnout election is always hard to predict. We don’t know how voters are going to go because we don’t know who’s going to show up at the polls. But turnout was quite high by the standards of August primaries. And that speaks to the ability of Evers and the Democrats to mobilize their base.

Nathan Denzin:
In the 8th, Tony Wied, the MAGA candidate, the Trump-supported candidate won, what does that say about the influence of MAGA when you had two other candidates, Roger Roth and Andr Jacque, who were endorsed by more traditional, conservative Republican voices?

Anthony Chergosky:
It shows that the Trump endorsement can matter in competitive Republican primaries and we say that just two years ago with Tim Michels defeating Rebecca Kleefisch in the Republican campaign for the gubernatorial nomination. Trump endorsed Michels and that, I think, put him over the top against Kleefisch. And this time around in the 8th Congressional District, I think it’s fair to say that Donald Trump’s endorsement of Tony Wied helped put him over the top. On top of that, Donald Trump spoke out against Roger Roth, the former state senator who came in second in the race for the nomination against Wied. Roger Roth was called a RINO or Republican In Name Only by Donald Trump. So the campaign and Trump’s factor, Trump’s influence in the campaign, I think, made a big effect on the outcome.

Nathan Denzin:
So in the 3rd, there was a Democratic primary contested between three people. Rebecca Cooke came out on top. It was a pretty contentious last few weeks of the campaign, what kind of takeaways can you take from that race, and how is Cooke going to face up against Derrick Van Orden in the general election?

Anthony Chergosky:
Yeah, Rebecca Cooke is a very strong fundraiser, and the Democrats are going to need plenty of financial resources if they hope to unseat Derrick Van Orden, because although this district here in western Wisconsin is competitive, it does lean a little bit in the Republican Party’s favor. So Rebecca Cooke will have a bit of an uphill battle ahead of her. That means that she’ll need plenty of financial resources to launch a negative campaign against Derrick Van Orden, and to develop her own political brand. Core to her political brand is the idea that she’s an outsider, which interestingly, is the political brand that Derrick Van Orden developed when he first ran for Congress. So it’s interesting to see those parallels between the candidates, though the parallels basically start and end right there.

Nathan Denzin:
In some state elections, Tim Ramthun and Janel Brandtjen both lost their primary elections. Is that surprising at all? Does that show that kind of this trend of election deniers winning office is kind of dying out?

Anthony Chergosky:
I think it shows that the influence of candidates denying the 2020 election result and the Trump endorsement factor is a little all over the place. It’s hard to draw any consistent conclusions about how much it matters for a candidate to be skeptical or to deny the outcome of the previous presidential election, and how much it matters for Trump to endorse them. But clearly, with Tim Michaels last cycle and with Tony Wied this cycle, we see that the Trump endorsement still matters quite a bit in certain circumstances in Republican primaries.

Nathan Denzin:
The presidential and vice-presidential candidates, they are going to be in Wisconsin a lot. They’ve already been in Wisconsin a lot. How do Harris and Walz play here, especially in western Wisconsin? And how do Trump and JD Vance play here?

Anthony Chergosky:
Well, the western Wisconsin region has been tilting a little more Republican in recent election cycles, but I don’t see it as being overwhelmingly Republican by any stretch of the imagination. There are certain regions that Democrats can bank on for a lot of votes. There are certain regions that Republicans can bank on for a lot of votes. But western Wisconsin is hard for either party to bank on. And that means that there will be a highly competitive campaign ahead of us here.

Nathan Denzin:
Do you think that Tim Walz has any additional sway here because of the proximity to Minnesota?

Anthony Chergosky:
He might. And it could be because people in this area are familiar with his record. People here might have developed somewhat positive or negative impressions of how he has performed as governor of Minnesota. And his political style may resonate with voters in this area because he has that folksy, Midwestern way about him. Too early to tell in general, running mates don’t have much of an effect at all on presidential election outcomes, but it will still be worth watching to see how western Wisconsin voters respond to the Walz running mate candidacy.

Nathan Denzin:
Are there any big winners or losers from these state level primaries?

Anthony Chergosky:
Well, I would have to mention Dane County turnout. I mean, Dane County’s turnout was astronomical compared to the state as a whole. And that is yet another example of how Dane County is a powerhouse in the Democratic Party coalition. I think Democrats are looking at the near 50% turnout in the Madison area and licking their chops as they think ahead to what that might, what that might foreshadow for the Wisconsin — for the general election ahead of us.