Amanpour and Company

>>> HELLO, EVERYONE AND WELCOME TO AMANPOUR AND COMPANY.

HERE IS WHAT IS COMING UP.

>> REMEMBER, IT ALL STARTS WITH THEY CANNOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON.

>> THAT IS EXACTLY WHERE PROGRESS WAS BEING MADE IN NEGOTIATIONS WHEN TRUMP WENT TO WAR AGAINST IRAN SAYS NORWAY'S FOREIGN MINISTER AND HE JOINED ME WITH A VIEW FROM EUROPE SUFFERING ECONOMIC SHOCKS AND WANTING THIS TO END NOW.

THEN -- THEY WERE DRAGGING ME WHILE I WAS UNDRESSED WITH MY LEGS AND HANDS BOUND.

>> HORROR STORIES FROM THE WEST BANK AS SETTLER VIOLENCE SPIKES UNDER A SHIELD OF IMPUNITY.

I SPEAK WITH THE PALESTINIAN AMBASSADOR TO THE UK.

>>> YOU ARE SO CONFIDENT OF SUCCESS, STRATEGIC SUCCESS, YOU DON'T HAVE ANY BACKUP PLAN TO DEAL WITH THE ENEMY LASHING BACK.

>> THE ESCALATION TRAP, POLITICAL SCIENTIST ROBERT TAPE TELLS US THIS U.S.

WAR MAY BE HEADED TOWARD STRATEGIC FAILURE.

>>> AMANPOUR AND COMPANY IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT, JIM ATTWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS, CANDACE KING WEIR, THE SYLVIA A. AND SIMON B. POYTA PROGRAMMING ENDOWMENT TO FIGHT ANTISEMITISM, THE STRAUS FAMILY FOUNDATION, THE PETER G. PETERSON & JOAN GANZ COONEY FUND, CHARLES ROSENBLUM, MONIQUE SCHOEN WARSHAW, KOO AND PATRICIA YUEN AND BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG.

AND, BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION BY VIEWERS LIKE YOU.

THANK YOU.

>>> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, EVERYONE.

I'M CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR IN LONDON.

DONALD TRUMP TOOK THE UNITED STATES TO WAR AND NOW HE IS TRYING TO FIND A WAY OUT OF IT AS SEVERAL THOUSAND AIRBORNE TROOPS HAD TO THE REGION.

THE U.S.

PRESIDENT SAYS HE GAVE IRAN A 15 POINT PEACE PLAN BUT IRAN RESPONDED WITH ITS OWN PLAN, A LIST OF FIVE CONDITIONS TO ENDING THE WAR.

SO, THE BOMBARDMENTS CONTINUE WITH IRAN HOLDING THE ECONOMIC SORT OF DAMAGES OVER THE WHOLE REGION.

EUROPE IS QUITE LITERALLY STUCK IN A QUANDARY BETWEEN SUPPORTING ITS MOST POWERFUL ALLY AND WANTING TO KEEP OUT OF THE WAR IT REJECTS WHILE NATO'S SECRETARY GENERAL SAYS TRUMP IS ACTING TO KEEP THE WORLD SAFE.

THE PRIME MINISTER IS SCATHING.

>> WHAT HAVE THE PROMOTERS OF THIS ILLEGAL WAR ACHIEVED?

IN MY OPINION, THIS IS WHAT THEY HAVE DONE.

FIRST, UNDERMINED INTERNATIONAL LAW AND STABILIZED THE MIDDLE EAST, REIGNITED CONFLICTS IN IRAQ AND LEBANON, BURIED GAZA UNDER THE RUBBLE, UNDER THE RUBBLE OF OBLIVION AND INDIFFERENCE.

THEY BROUGHT IN SECURITY TO GULF COUNTRIES THAT LESS THAN A MONTH AGO WERE SAFE, ENCOURAGED NUCLEAR PROGRAMS IN PAKISTAN AND NORTH KOREA AND GIVEN VLADIMIR PUTIN MORE THAN ,8 BILLION TO FINANCE HIS WAR AND INVASION IN UKRAINE THANKS TO RISING FUEL PRICES AND THE LIFTING OF SANCTIONS ALSO BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE U.S.

ADMINISTRATION.

>> GERMANY AND NORWAY ARE ALSO CONCERNED THE WAR IS ILLEGAL AND GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS AFTER NEARLY 4 WEEKS, CERTAINLY THEY FEEL MISJUDGED.

THE NORWEGIAN FOREIGN MINISTER ESPEN BARTH EIDE JOINED ME.

>> PRIME MINISTER ESPEN BARTH EIDE, HOW ARE YOU AND WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM?

I ASK YOU HOW YOU ARE BECAUSE OF THIS IMMENSE PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN COMING ON ALL NATIONS, EUROPE INCLUDED WITH THIS WAR.

>> THANK YOU FOR ASKING.

THIS IS ACTUALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION BECAUSE THIS WAR DOES NOT ONLY CREATE HAVOC IN THE GULF ON THE MIDDLE EAST BUT HAS VERY SERIOUS GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES.

WE ARE SEEING NOT ONLY THE RISING PRICE OF ENERGY BUT ALSO THE THREATS TO SUPPLY.

ALSO, FOOD IN THE FUTURE AND THE SUPPLY CHAINS IN GENERAL.

THIS IS REALLY A SITUATION THAT, IF IT IS ALLOWED TO CONTINUE, WILL BE VERY BAD FOR THE PEOPLE IN THE REGION, OBVIOUSLY WHO ARE MOST AFFECTED BUT ALSO UNDERMINE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.

I THINK THIS HAS ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL AND SECURITY APPLICATIONS FOR EVERYONE, WHICH IS WHY I REALLY WANT THIS WAR TO STOP.

I REALLY THINK IT IS TIME TO FIND A DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION AND ALL SIDES CAN LIVE WITH.

WE HAVE AN IRANIAN REGIME WHICH HAS PREVIOUSLY DEMONSTRATED ITS AMBITIONS TO HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS.

THAT SHOULD NOT HAPPEN BUT I THINK THAT THESE THINGS ARE BEST TAKEN CARE OF THROUGH GOING BACK TO NEGOTIATIONS AND SOME VERY FIRM AGREEMENTS WITH VERY STRONG INSPECTION MECHANISMS TO MAKE SURE THAT IRAN CAN NEVER GET A NUCLEAR WEAPON.

I THINK THAT IS THE CURRENT SITUATION.

IT HAS MOVED INTO A STALEMATE THAT IS MAKING THE WORLD MORE DANGEROUS FOR EVERYONE.

>> AS YOU KNOW, PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS CALLED UPON EUROPE TO HELP.

HE IS VERY UNGRATEFUL PEER HE SAID YOU ARE COWARDS, THIS AND THAT.

NORWAY HAS RESPONDED BY STANDING UP TO THE PRESSURE TO SAY NORWAY WILL NOT DO THAT.

THAT WAS YOUR PRIME MINISTER.

DO YOU THINK THE PRESIDENT HAS MADE A MISCALCULATION?

DO YOU BELIEVE THAT THIS WAR WAS NOT JUST NOT YOUR WAR BUT A GENERAL MISCALCULATION?

>> I AM AFRAID THAT IS WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW.

AT LEAST THERE WAS A SERIOUS UNDERESTIMATION OF THE CAPACITY OF IRAN TO CONDUCT A LONG-TERM ASYMMETRIC CAMPAIGN.

IN THE CERTAIN SENSE, IRAN HAS THE ADVANTAGE OF THE UNDERDOG.

IT DOES NOT NEED DOMINANCE.

IT ONLY NEEDS TO MAINTAIN A CERTAIN ABILITY TO THREATEN AND CHALLENGE AND CREATE FEAR.

FOR THE NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES IN THE GULF AND THAT WILL GIVE THEM A CERTAIN ADVANTAGE, WHICH IS HARD TO REALLY TAKE OUT PRIME MINISTER MEANS WITHOUT COMING OUT ON THE GROUND WHICH I UNDERSTAND IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN.

IT IS CORRECT THAT WE HAVE SAID, LIKE MOST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO ENTER THE WAR AND TAKE PART IN THE FIGHTING.

WE DO WANT TO BE HELPFUL IN TRYING TO SEE IF THERE ARE OTHER MEANS BY WHICH WE CAN ENCOURAGE PARTIES TO REOPEN IN WHOLE OR IN PART THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ TO SEE IF WE CAN GET MORE RESPONSIBLE BEHAVIOR WITH TRYING TO ENSURE THAT AT LEAST CERTAIN PRODUCTS CAN GET THROUGH AND ALSO, OF COURSE, IF THERE ARE WAYS TO HELP WITH DIPLOMATIC SETTLEMENT.

I KNOW THAT OTHER COUNTRIES ARE MORE ENGAGED IN THAT BUT I THINK IT IS REALLY IMPORTANT NOW TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF THIS WAR CONTINUES, IT WILL NOT ONLY BE A LONG WAR BUT THE CONSEQUENCES CAN ACTUALLY LAST FOR YEARS BECAUSE, SURE, THE DESTRUCTION OF IMPORTANT ENERGY PRODUCTION FACILITIES, A FIELD IN QATAR WILL TAKE A LOT OF TIME TO REPAIR WHAT IS ALREADY DAMAGED AND IF THERE ARE MORE DAMAGES TO EITHER GULF STATES OR IRANIAN FACILITIES , THE CONSEQUENCES WILL NOT ONLY BE THIS YEAR BUT MAYBE YEARS INTO THE FUTURE WITH VERY SEVERE CONSEQUENCES.

SO HELP, YES, BUT NOT WITH MILITARY PARTICIPATION.

>> I THINK WE DO HAVE TO SAY THAT IT WAS ONE OF THE PARTICIPANTS OF THIS WAR, ISRAEL, THAT BEGAN THE ENERGY WAR BY ATTACKING THE GAS FIELDS IN IRAN.

THAT IS WHERE WE ARE NOW, WITH THIS MAJOR ENERGY WAR.

I WANT TO ASK YOU, BECAUSE EUROPE IS CAUGHT, AS SOME PEOPLE SAY, BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE, BETWEEN WANTING TO PROTECT YOUR OWN INTEREST AND ALSO WANTING TO BE PROPER, SECURE MEMBERS OF THE TRANSATLANTIC NATO ALLIANCE.

YOU HAVE ENJOINED BUT NONETHELESS, MANY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ARE FACILITATING PARTS OF THIS WAR, WHETHER IT IS THE UK, GERMANY, USING THEIR BASES.

AGAIN, HOW MUCH PRESSURE ARE YOU ALL UNDER AND WITH THAT PRESSURE, MARCO RUBIO, SECRETARY OF STATE IS COMING TO EUROPE TO MEET WITH THE G7.

I KNOW YOU ARE NOT G7 BUT WHAT YOU EXPECT THE CONVERSATION TO BE?

>> I HOPE THAT THE CONVERSATION WILL BE AROUND TRYING TO FIND OUT WHERE WE CAN HAVE SOME LANDING ZONES WHERE THIS WAR CAN BE BROUGHT TO AN END IN A PROPER MANNER.

WHAT WE ALL AGREE UPON VERY STRONGLY SO IS THAT WE HAVE TO ENSURE THAT IRAN CAN NEVER OBTAIN A NUCLEAR WEAPON.

THEY DON'T HAVE ANY YET.

THEY WERE NOT AROUND THE CORNER IN GETTING THEM EITHER.

WE KNOW THAT FROM THE TIMES WHEN THERE WAS A NUCLEAR AGREEMENT BUT WE STILL HAVE TO WORK TOGETHER, PREFERABLY BY DIPLOMATIC MEANS AND BY AGREEMENTS AND INSPECTIONS TO ENSURE THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE.

THERE ARE MANY THINGS TO DISCUSS BEYOND THE ACTUAL MILITARY CONTRIBUTIONS AND WE ARE, NORWAY IS A COUNTRY THAT TAKES NATO VERY SERIOUSLY.

WE ARE VERY COMMITTED TO A STRONGER EUROPEAN DEFENSE INSIDE THE DEFENSE RESPONSIBILITIES OF NATO.

WE BELIEVE IN THE TRANSATLANTIC BUT THIS PARTICULAR WAR IS NOT THE NATO WAR AND THERE IS NO TO MAKE THIS FOR NATO AS SUCH.

INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS, YES.

SOME OF THEM HAVE LONG-TERM BASE AGREEMENTS WITH THE U.S.

THEY HAVE FACILITATED CERTAIN USE OF THOSE BUT THESE ARE NOT NATO DECISIONS, THESE ARE INDIVIDUAL DECISIONS.

HERE IN EUROPE, THE MAIN CHALLENGE THAT WE HAVE IS WHAT IS GOING ON IN UKRAINE WITH RUSSIA, WHICH IS OUR NEIGHBOR, NORWAY'S NEIGHBOR IN THE NORTH END WHERE IT IS WAGING AN ILLEGAL AND VERY DRAMATIC WAR.

THERE WERE MASSIVE AIR ATTACKS ALL OVER UKRAINE.

THAT WAR IS GOING ON AND ONE OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE IRAN WAR IS THAT THERE WAS LESS ATTENTION TO WHAT IS HAPPENING IN UKRAINE AND ANOTHER CONSEQUENCES THAT ONE OF THE COUNTRIES THAT ACTUALLY BENEFIT FROM THIS ENERGY CRISIS IS RUSSIA ITSELF SO THEY GET MORE MONEY TO PAY FOR MORE WEAPONS TO ATTACK UKRAINE.

IT IS ALL RELATED AND WE WOULD VERY MUCH LIKE TO SEE IF WE CAN GET SOME KIND OF PACE DOWN OF THE WAR IN IRAN, GET SOME PROPER SETTLEMENTS INCLUDING ON THE NUCLEAR ISSUE AND THEN BE ABLE, AGAIN, TO FOCUS ON WHAT IS SEEN FROM OUR PERSPECTIVE AS A VERY, VERY KEY ISSUE WHICH IS HOW WE CAN CONTAIN RUSSIA FOR NOT ONLY UKRAINE BUT ALSO TO PREPARE FOR A POST UKRAINE WAR IN EUROPE THAT IS SAFE AND SOUND AGAINST FURTHER RUSSIAN AGGRESSION.

>> WHAT DOES THE REALISTIC HOPE FOR THAT?

YOU JUST LAID OUT THE DANGER OF THIS DISTRACTING FROM THAT.

WE KNOW THAT AS YOU SAID, RUSSIA'S WARCHEST IS BEING FILLED UP AND IS USING THIS PERIOD TO CONTINUE ATTACKING UKRAINE VERY VICIOUSLY.

HOW DO YOU SEE THE BATTLEFIELD THERE NOW AND WHAT DO YOU THINK IS GOING TO BE THE EFFECT OF THIS WAR DISTRACTING NOT ONLY ATTENTION BUT ALSO RESOURCES FOR HELPING UKRAINE, LET'S SAY OVER THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO.

>> I AM REALLY WORRIED THAT IF THE WAR IN THE GULF MAC CONTINUES FOR MONTHS, THAT WE WILL SEE A SEVERE IMPACT.

I MENTIONED THE OIL PRICE FOR RUSSIA, BENEFIT FOR RUSSIA AND THE LACK OF ATTENTION.

YOU COULD ALSO ADD THAT THERE IS SO MUCH ADVANCED MILITARY HARDWARE THAT IS BEING SPENT IN THE WAR WITH IRAN THAT THESE ARE WEAPONS THAT COULD HAVE BEEN PUT TO USE IN DEFENSE OF UKRAINE AND NORWAY ALONG WITH MANY ARE READY TO PAY FOR AMERICAN WEAPONS, TO DONATE THEM TO RUSSIA BUT NOW THERE ARE LESS AVAILABLE.

THERE ARE ALL KINDS OF CONSEQUENCES.

THAT SAID, HOWEVER, THE MILITARY, THE BATTLEFRONT IN UKRAINE IS QUITE STATIC.

RUSSIA HAS NOT GAINED MUCH, LATELY.

UKRAINE HAS HAD A FEW TECHNICAL ADVANCES IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY OCCUPIED BY RUSSIA AND IT SEEMS THAT WE HAVE A RATHER STATIC SITUATION ON THE FRONT WHICH IS WHY WE ARE NOW SEEING INCREASED USE OF ATTACKS ON THE BEACH MEANING ATTACKS ON ENERGY IN UKRAINE AND ALSO SOME UKRAINIAN ATTACKS DEEPER INTO RUSSIA.

THERE IS NOT MUCH MORE TO GET FROM THE BATTLEFRONT.

HOPEFULLY, THIS WILL TAKE US THROUGH A SITUATION WHERE EVEN RUSSIA UNDERSTANDS THAT THIS CANNOT GO ON FOREVER, WHERE THEY HAVE TO COME TO SOME KIND OF A CEASEFIRE AND PEACE TALKS IN ORDER TO MAKE SURE THAT UKRAINE IS BEST PREPARED AS POSSIBLE.

WE BOTH NEED TO HAVE A SOLID WESTERN UNITY BEHIND UKRAINE BUT ALSO CONTINUE TO MAKE SURE THAT WE HAVE THE MILITARY MEANS TO DEFEND THEMSELVES UNTIL WE GET THERE.

THIRDLY, TO PREPARE FOR THE POSTWAR INTEGRATION OF UKRAINE INTO WESTERN INCLUDING EUROPEAN INTEGRATION.

>> CAN I ASK YOU TO GO BACK QUICKLY.

YOU SAID OBVIOUSLY THE U.S.

WOULD SURPRISE ISRAEL, ISRAEL WAS SURPRISED BY IRAN'S REACTION.

NOW WE ARE GETTING INFORMATION THAT THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES APPEARS TO BE GETTING VERY SHORT, VERY SELECT VIDEO MONTAGE ON A DAILY BASIS TO SHOW HIM WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE WAR AND IT TENDS TO EMPHASIZE U.S.

SUCCESSES WITH COMPARATIVELY LITTLE DETAIL ABOUT IRANIAN ACTION.

I KNOW YOU DON'T KNOW THE DETAILS BUT WHAT DOES THAT SAY TO YOU?

>> AS YOU SAID, I DON'T KNOW WHAT INFORMATION HE GETS AND I'D DON'T HAVE MUCH TO SAY ABOUT THAT VERY GENERAL LEVEL BUT THERE IS INFORMATION THAT IS POSSIBLE.

THE U.S.

MORE THAN ANYBODY HAS EXCELLENCE, INTELLIGENT SERVICE.

THEY HAVE A LOT OF INFORMATION AVAILABLE.

IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT THEY WERE BIG DECISIONS THAT ARE AWARE OF HOW THINGS ARE REALLY GOING BECAUSE WE HAVE SEEN SO MANY CONFLICTS WHERE THE SMALLER PART, THE MILITARY CAN USE THEIR INFERIOR ROLE ALMOST AS AN ADVANTAGE BECAUSE THEY HAVE WHAT I CALL THIS BENEFIT OF THE UNDERDOG WHERE YOU ONLY NEED TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT CAPACITY TO CONTINUE TO CREATE FEAR OF RETALIATION AND THEN YOU GET MUCH MORE OUT OF YOUR WEAPONS THAN THE ATTACKER.

I WOULD BE A LITTLE BIT SURPRISED IF THIS HAS NOT BEEN WARGAMES BECAUSE FOR MOST OF US , IT WAS A RATHER NATURAL DEVELOPMENT OF THINGS.

WE, FROM NORWAY'S SIDE SET ON THE FIRST DAY, ON THE FEBRUARY 28 THAT WE FEAR THAT THIS WOULD LEAD TO ESCALATION AND THAT IRAN WOULD RETALIATE AGAINST THIRD PARTIES IN THE REGION BECAUSE I KNOW THEY HAVE SEEN THIS IN PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF CONVERSATIONS ABOUT WHAT TO DO ABOUT IRAN.

IN THE SENSE -- ALTHOUGH WE VERY CLEARLY CONDEMN THE ATTACKS ON THIRD-PARTY AND CIVILIAN INTERSEX, IT IS MORE OR LESS WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN EXPECTED FROM A COUNTRY LIKE IRAN.

>> RIGHT.

YEAH.

FINALLY, I WOULD LIKE TO ASK YOU ABOUT THE MIDDLE EAST.

THERE IS A HUGE ISSUE THAT RIPS THE MIDDLE EAST APART AND THAT IS ISRAEL AND PALESTINE.

YOU AND NORWAY HAVE HAD SUCH IMPORTANT WORK TRYING TO GET PEACE PROCESSES.

ON THE WEST BANK, IS REALLY SETTLERS ARE STRATEGICALLY CONSOLIDATING CONTROL OF PALESTINIAN LAND, EVEN IN AREAS THAT ARE MEANT TO BE ADMINISTERED BY THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY.

THOSE ARE AREAS A AND B. THE SETTLERS ARE DISPLACING PALESTINIAN COMMUNITIES, SOMETIMES VERY VIOLENTLY AND DIVIDING THE WEST BANK UP, WHICH GOES RIGHT AGAINST THE HEART AND THE WORD OF THE OSLO AGREEMENT.

YOUR FOREIGN MINISTER WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN BRINGING THAT ALTOGETHER.

DO YOU THINK IT IS TOTALLY DEAD NOW.

DO YOU THINK THAT THERE LITERALLY IS NO BRINGING IT BACK?

GAZA IS STILL AN UNFINISHED BUSINESS?

>> I DON'T THINK IT IS OVER.

I DO THINK THAT THIS IS THE QUINTESSENTIAL CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND AS IT RELATES TO ALL OF THE OTHER TENSIONS AND CONFLICTS, THEY ARE SEPARATE BUT ALL OF THEM IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER COME BACK TO THE ISRAEL/PALESTINE ISSUE AND CHRISTIANE , YOU VERY CORRECTLY POINT OUT THAT WHILE THE WORLD HAS HAD THEIR FOCUS ON GAZA FOR UNDERSTANDABLE REASONS FOR YEARS NOW DURING THE GAZA WAR, A LOT OF BAD THINGS HAVE HAPPENED ON THE WEST BANK AND NOW IT IS GOING INTO OVERDRIVE.

IT IS WORSE THAN EVER.

SETTLER VIOLENCE, OTHER ACTIVITY, EVEN SUPPORTED BY THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT, ALLOWING SETTLERS TO TAKE FULL CONTROL OF IT LEGALLY IS PALESTINE AND EVEN AGREEMENTS THAT ISRAEL HAS SIGNED AND RECOGNIZED TO BE CONTROLLED BY PALESTINIANS.

REMEMBER, THESE ARE NOT THE PALESTINIANS OF HAMAS.

THESE ARE THE PALESTINIANS, THE ADMINISTRATION AND THE PEOPLE WHO ORIGINALLY ARE CONTROLLING THESE AREAS.

THEY ARE THE ANTI-HAMAS.

THEY ARE THE OPPOSITE.

THEY ARE THE PEOPLE WHO ARE READY TO LIVE SIDE BY SIDE IN PEACE WITH ISRAEL.

SO, UNDERMINING THEM NOT ONLY THE TERRITORY BUT ALSO THE KEY INSTITUTIONS FOR THE PALESTINIANS IS VERY DRAMATIC BECAUSE IT IS A CLEAR VIOLATION OF U.N.

PRINCIPLES AND AGREEMENTS THAT ISRAEL AND PALESTINE HAVE SIGNED BUT ALSO IT MAKES POLICY ITSELF BECAUSE THE LONG RUN, IT COULD LEAD MORE SPACE WHEN THEY SEE NO PROGRESS IN THE MORE PEACEFUL APPROACH.

I AM REALLY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE WEST BANK AND IT IS REALLY IMPORTANT THAT WE ARE NOT ALLOWING ONCE AGAIN THE PALESTINIANS TO BE FORGOTTEN WHEN SOMETHING ELSE HAPPENS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD.

ON TOP OF THAT, WE SHOULD MENTION WHAT IS HAPPENING IN LEBANON WHERE IT SEEMS THAT WE ARE AT THE BEGINNING OF YET ANOTHER VERY DRAMATIC WAR THERE.

>> HONESTLY, IT LOOKS DARK WHICHEVER WAY YOU LOOK.

FOREIGN MINISTER ESPEN BARTH EIDE, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING WITH US.

>> THANK YOU.

>>> WHILE ISRAEL'S WAR ON IRAN AND THE BOMBING AND ENCOURAGEMENT TO LEBANON CONTINUE, THERE ARE SERIOUS DEVELOPMENTS IN THE OCCUPIED WEST BANK.

VIOLENCE AGAINST PALESTINIANS BY BOTH SETTLERS AND THE SECURITY FORCES HAS SKYROCKETED SINCE THE OCTOBER 7 ATTACKS BY HAMAS AND THEY HAVE RISEN FURTHER SINCE THIS WAR BEGAN.

10 PALESTINIAN CIVILIANS HAVE BEEN KILLED THIS MONTH ALONE AND TROUBLING REPORTS CONTINUE TO EMERGE ABOUT HEINOUS ABUSE AND AGGRESSIVE EVICTION.

ISRAEL AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED STATES CLAIMANT IS ONLY A TINY MINORITY PERPETRATING THESE ACTS BUT SAYS IT IS A SERIOUS PROBLEM FOR ISRAEL'S REPUTATION.

MEANWHILE, IN GAZA, A DISARMAMENT PROPOSAL HAS BEEN SUBMITTED TO HAMAS BY THE BOARD OF PEACE WITH HAMAS EXPECTED TO RESPOND SOON.

NOW, HUSAM ZOMLOT IS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM AND JOINS US IN THE STUDIO.

WELCOME BACK TO OUR PROGRAM.

JUST REACT TO WHAT THE ISRAELI AMBASSADOR SAID THAT THERE WAS ONLY A TINY MINORITY OF PEOPLE, NONETHELESS, IT REALLY DOES HURT THE REPUTATION.

>> TINY MINORITY OF GAZA HE MEANS OR IN THE WEST BANK?

>> THE WEST BANK.

>> THIS IS A STATE SPONSORED.

WE SHOULD NOT CALL IT SETTLER TERRORISM.

THIS IS A STATE SPONSORED DIRECT COMPLICITY BY THE ARMY AND INVOLVEMENT BY THE ISRAELI ARMY AS PER U.N.

REPORTS AND THIS IS A VERY ORGANIZED TERRORIST CAMPAIGN.

>> WHEN YOU SAY STATE ORGANIZED, CLEARLY THE PRIME MINISTER NEVER CONDONES THIS KIND OF STUFF.

ACTUALLY, LET ME JUST HAVE WHAT HE SAID.

THE FORMER PRIME MINISTER TOLD ME THIS.

>> I HAVE ZERO TOLERANCE FOR ANY SORT OF ILLEGAL ACTIONS AGAINST THE PALESTINIANS AND IT IS BEING INVESTIGATED AND I STAND BEHIND ALL INVESTIGATIONS BECAUSE ISRAEL IS A DEMOCRACY WITH RULE OF LAW AND I INSIST THE LAW ABIDES.

TO PUT IT IN CONTEXT, THERE IS A HUGE AMOUNT OF TERROR AGAINST ISRAELIS AS WELL AND IT IS TOUGH.

>> HE IS LYING.

FOR A DECADE WITH ALL OF THIS RISING LEVEL OF SETTLER TERRORISM BACKED BY HIS GOVERNMENT, THERE WAS NOT ONE PROSECUTION FOR 10 YEARS.

NOT ONE SETTLER WAS BROUGHT TO JUSTICE AND YOU KNOW HOW MANY HUNDREDS OF PALESTINIANS HAVE BEEN SUBJECTED TO TERROR, VIOLENCE, AND MURDER AT THE HANDS OF THE SETTLERS?

NO, THIS IS STATE-SPONSORED TERRORISM, STRAIGHT AND PLAIN.

>> THE REASON I GOT THAT ANSWER OUT OF HIM WAS BECAUSE OF THE REALLY, I SAID HEINOUS CRIME THAT WAS COMMITTED BY SETTLERS THIS WEEK IN THE WEST BANK.

THERE WAS A MAN WHO SAID SETTLERS BEAT HIM, STRIPPED HIM, ZIP TIED HIS GENITALS AND OUR CORRESPONDENT JEREMY DIAMOND SPOKE TO HIM AND THIS IS HIS TESTIMONY.

>> [ SPEAKING IN A NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE ] >> WHAT WAS GOING THROUGH YOUR MIND WHEN THAT WAS HAPPENING?

>> [ SPEAKING IN A NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE ] >> WHAT IS YOUR REACTION TO THAT?

>> THAT IS JUST ONE EXAMPLE OF MANY AND THIS IS NOT JUST THE LAST FEW WEEKS OR MONTHS, IT HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR 80 YEARS.

CHRISTIANE , THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME BACK BUT THE LAST TIME I SAT ON THIS CHAIR WITH YOU WAS ON OCTOBER 7 .

I WANT THE WORLD THROUGH YOU AND THE PROBLEM THAT ISRAEL WILL USE 7 OCTOBER TO DECLARE A FAR GREATER ATTACK AND AGGRESSION AGAINST THE PALESTINIAN PEOPLE.

EFFECTIVELY, WARNING THAT WE WILL RUN THE RISK OF GENOCIDE AND LOOK WHERE WE ARE TODAY.

LOOK.

IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT WE REMEMBER THAT WE HAVE BEEN SAYING EVER SINCE THE PALESTINE -- GAZA HAS BEEN FLATTENED.

ALMOST 2 MILLION PEOPLE, IF NOT MORE -- ISRAEL REFUSES ANY NATIONAL OR INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE IN GAZA.

IT IS ONLY AFTER DISINTEGRATION AND IT IS NOW EXPORTING TO THE REGION.

THEY HAVE BROUGHT IN LEAFLETS IN LEBANON TELLING THEM WE ARE DOING TO YOU WHAT WE HAVE DONE IN GAZA.

>> THEY ARE NOT LEAFLETS, THEY HAVE DONE IT PUBLICLY.

THE DEFENSE MINISTER SAID IT PUBLICLY.

>> YEAH.

THIS IS ONE OF THE GREATEST MOMENTS OF OUR HISTORY BUT WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE DISCUSSING THE CURRENT WAR WITH IRAN.

>> WHILE I HAVE YOU ON THIS ISSUE, I WANT TO ASK THIS ISSUE.

I SAID THAT BENNETT RESPONDED TO THAT PARTICULAR ATTACK BUT ACTUALLY IT WAS ON THE KILLING BY THE IDF OF A FAMILY OF FOUR IN A CAR.

THAT IS WHAT I WAS ASKING HIM ABOUT THEN BUT NONETHELESS -- >> DID THEY BRING THEIR SOLDIERS WHO OPENED FIRE ON THE FAMILY TO JUSTICE?

>> WE ARE FOLLOWING IT.

>> THEY DID NOT.

DO YOU KNOW HOW MANY SOLDIERS -- THERE WERE CITIZENS MURDERED BY SOLDIERS AND NEVER ONCE JUSTICE WAS SERVED IN THE WAY IT SHOULD BE AS HE CLAIMS BY A DEMOCRACY BUT THE COMPOSITION IS NOT ABOUT THIS INCIDENT OR THAT INCIDENT.

THE COMPOSITION IS ABOUT AN 80- YEAR-OLD CAMPAIGN OF COMPLETE MAYHEM IN THE REGION AND OF ISRAEL WANTING TO REIGN SUPREME.

>> AS YOU KNOW -- >> PALESTINE WAS ONLY THE PLAYGROUND.

NOW, THIS PLAYBOOK IS BEING EXPORTED EVERYWHERE AND IF WE DON'T ADDRESS THIS VERY LONG CAMPAIGN, WE WILL BE COMING BACK TO DISCUSS THE NEXT WAR, NOT JUST THE WAR OF IRAN.

>> I WAS SPEAKING BEFORE YOU SET DOWN TO THE NORWEGIAN FOREIGN MINISTER AND THERE HAVE BEEN SMALL PERIODS OF HOPE AND TRAGICALLY THROUGH THE OSLO PROCESS, THEY HAVE NOT GOTTEN ANYWHERE BUT I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT NOW BECAUSE YOU WROTE FOR THE ECONOMIST.

YOU CALLED ON ISRAEL TO STOP LAND ANNEXATIONS IN OCCUPIED PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES AS THIS WAR IS UNFOLDING.

YOU ARE RIGHT.

A PERMANENT TRANSFORMATION IS UNFOLDING IN OCCUPIED PALESTINE.

THIS IS NOT ACCIDENTAL.

IT IS A STRATEGIC DECISION BY ISRAEL TO ESTABLISH REGIONAL DOMINANCE AND DEAL A DEADLY BLOW TO PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD UNDER THE COVER OF WAR.

PLAY THAT FORWARD FOR US.

WHAT DOES THIS LOOK LIKE?

YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT EVERY LAST PALESTINIAN BEING PUSHED OUT OF THE OCCUPIED WEST BANK.

YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT ISRAEL MAY BE RE-OCCUPYING PARTS OR ALL OF GAZA.

WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE IN YOUR VIEW OF THE FUTURE?

>> THE WEST BANK IS BEING ANNEXED.

SETTLER TERRORISM IS ORGANIZED TO DRIVE PEOPLE OUT WITH THE FULL BACKING OF THE STATE UNDER THE COVER OF WAR.

THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT IS AIMING AT THE NATIONAL INSTITUTIONS, THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY, PUSHING IT TO ALMOST NEAR FINANCIAL COLLAPSE.

IN GAZA, THEY REFUSE ANY SCENARIO WHERE IT WOULD BRING ABOUT ANY SORT OF STABILITY, THAT GAZA IS A SEPARATE PART OF THE STATE OF PALESTINE UNITED WITH THE WEST BANK AND ONE GOVERNMENT.

WHY ARE THEY DOING THAT?

WHY ARE THEY DOING THAT?

ISRAEL -- DISINTEGRATION.

IT STARTED THE WARS WITH EGYPT, THE WARS WITH JORDAN, WITH SYRIA, WITH LEBANON, WITH IRAQ, AND NOW WITH IRAN.

IT IS THE SAME CONCEPT.

WHAT THEY ARE DOING IN THE WEST BANK, PRACTICALLY SPEAKING, AND IN GAZA, IS DEFINITELY AN ACT OF DISPLACEMENT AND REPLACEMENT.

OF COURSE, BY EXPORTING THIS TO THE OUTSIDE WORLD, THEY ARE ENABLED BY ISRAEL'S FRIENDS TO DO SO UNDER THE COVER OF WAR.

>> THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY, WHICH RECOGNIZES ISRAEL, WHICH SIGNED THE OSLO ACCORDS AND IS THE INTERNATIONALLY ACCEPTED PALESTINIAN ENTITY, POLITICAL ENTITY, THEY ARE ALSO BEING, SORT OF SIDELINED AS THE NORWEGIAN PRIME MINISTER TOLD ME IN THAT, HE SAYS, IS A SHAME.

THEY ARE THE ONES, YOU ARE THE ONES THAT WOULD DO PEACE AND ET CETERA WITH ISRAEL.

ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ISRAELIS ARE SAYING EVEN NOW, AND THEY HAVE SAID IT BEFORE, EVEN WHEN THE WAR WITH IRAN STARTED, OR THEIR WAR WITH IRAN STARTED, THAT THIS IS A ONCE IN A GENERATION LIFETIME CHANCE TO REORGANIZE THE MIDDLE EAST, CHANGE THE FACE OF THE MIDDLE EAST, I THINK THEIR WORDS ARE, IN ORDER TO GIVE ISRAEL SECURITY.

I KNOW YOU GRIMACE.

I KNOW YOU DO.

BUT, YOU DID HAVE HEZBOLLAH FIRING INTO ISRAEL.

YOU DID HAVE HAMAS DO WHAT IT DID ON OCTOBER 7 AND THESE NOW CAN BE SEEN AS GIANT MISCALCULATIONS BECAUSE IT HAS COME BACK TO TERRORIZE THEM AND EVERYBODY.

THEY FAILED AND THEY ARE BEING -- ISRAEL WANTS TO MAKE SURE THAT THEY DON'T HAVE THE ABILITY TO ATTACK THEM IN THE FUTURE.

WHAT IS THE ANSWER AFTER THIS?

>> NOT AGGRESSION.

ISRAEL HAS BEEN DOING THIS FOR YEARS AND IT HAS NOT WORKED.

IT WILL NEVER WORK.

IT IS A DEFINITION OF UTTER, COMPLETE DEVASTATION OF THE REGION THAT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AND WILL NEVER MATERIALIZE.

OF COURSE, THE IRANIAN REGIME, WE HAVE ISSUES WITH IT AND THE REGION DOES.

PARTICULARLY, ITS IMMEDIATE NEIGHBORS, THE GULF COUNTRIES BUT THE OTHER WORLD, INCLUDING THE ARAB COUNTRIES HAVE CHOSEN DIPLOMACY DIALOGUE, REESTABLISHING FULL DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS BUT ISRAEL CHOSE AGGRESSION AND IT HAS BEEN CHOOSING AGGRESSION EVER SINCE.

YOU CAN SEE CLEARLY WHAT IS ISRAEL'S INTEREST IN THIS.

IT IS VERY CLEAR.

THEY WANT TO UNDERMINE ANY POSSIBILITY OF ANY SENSE -- THE ARAB WORLD IS AFFECTED NEGATIVELY.

THE GULF IS PAYING A HEAVY PRICE FOR THIS AS YOU ARE FOLLOWING, SO WAS THE REST OF THE WORLD .

PEOPLE FEEL THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE ISRAELI INSTIGATED MORE.

I BELIEVE ALSO THAT NOW WE HAVE TO ASK THE QUESTION, WHAT IS THE AMERICAN INTEREST IN THIS?

>> IT IS THE U.S./ISRAEL WAR.

DO YOU HAVE ANY DIALOGUE?

DO YOU HAVE ANY DIALOGUE WITH THE UNITED STATES AT ALL ON HOW TO GET AT LEAST PALESTINIAN RIGHTS AND PALESTINIAN SECURITY AND TO MOVE FORWARD?

FOR INSTANCE, AS WE SAID LEADING INTO YOU, APPARENTLY THERE IS A NEW PHASE IN THE GAZA SITUATION WHEREBY THE BOARD OF PEACE HAD PRESENTED A DISARM OR PLAN TO HAMAS AND EXPECT THEIR RESPONSE.

WHAT DO YOU THINK WILL COME OUT OF THAT?

IS THAT THE WAY TO GO?

>> THE WAY TO GO IS FIRST TO STOP THE ANNEXATION IMMEDIATELY BECAUSE THIS IS AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT AND IT IS AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT TO THE REGION AND GLOBAL SECURITY AND STABILITY.

NUMBER TWO, YES, WE NEED TO GO BACK TO THE PLAN TO STABILIZE THE SITUATION IN GAZA, TO HAVE ISRAEL WITHDRAW FROM GAZA, TO HAVE A PALESTINIAN COMMODITY THAT WAS WELCOMED BY US AND TO UNITE GAZA AND THE WEST BANK TOGETHER BUT ALSO, WE NEED TO MAKE SURE THAT THE U.S.

INTEREST IS ALIVE WITH THE REGION AND THE REGION -- WE NEED TO PRESS THE BRAKES NOW.

THIS WAR HAS TO STOP.

IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE.

OR, CIVILIANS WITH THE BRUNT OF SUCH WARS.

NUMBER TWO, WE NEED TO BRING BACK THE GUARDRAILS THAT WE HAVE ALREADY WHICH IS INTERNATIONAL LAW AND INTERNATIONAL ORDER.

WE MUST BRING IT BACK AND WE MUST ALSO STOP, REALLY ONCE AND FOR ALL, REALIZING THAT WE HAVE GOT TO STOP DEALING WITH THIS.

WE MUST DEAL WITH THE ROOT CAUSE OF ALL OF THIS AND THE ROOT CAUSE OF ALL OF THIS IS THE QUESTION OF PALESTINE, A QUESTION OF RIGHTS, A QUESTION OF LAW AND A QUESTION OF ACCOUNTABILITY.

ADDRESS THE ISSUE OF PALESTINE AND YOU REALLY HAVE THE BIGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR PEACE.

IGNORE IT AND THEN YOU AND I, CHRISTIANE , WILL BE DISCUSSING THE NEXT WAR AND THIS IS THE REALIZATION THAT IS NOW BEING SPREAD ALL OVER THE REGION AND THE WORLD AND I BELIEVE THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS ENABLED THE SITUATION TO FESTER FOR 80 YEARS.

THE FACT THAT ISRAEL WAS ALLOWED TO DO WHAT IT DID TO GAZA IN THE LAST 2 1/2 YEARS IS EXACTLY WHAT HAS REPAIRED FOR WHAT YOU SEE NOW.

>> FIRST OF ALL, DO YOU HAVE ANY CONTACT -- YOU IN THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY, A LEGITIMATE REPRESENTATIVES OF THE PALESTINIAN PEOPLE.

DO YOU HAVE ANY CONTACT WITH, LET'S SAY THE NAMED ENVOY FOR THE GAZA PART OF THE BOARD OF PEACE INITIATIVE?

DO YOU THINK THERE IS ANY HOPE LEFT FOR A TWO STATE SOLUTION?

>> YES.

THEY CAME AND VISITED US, SOME OF OUR OFFICIALS MET THEM AND TONY BLAIR BEFORE HIM AND THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY WAS ABSOLUTELY SUPPORTIVE OF ANY INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE AND PLAN TO STOP ISRAEL'S MASS MURDER AND MASS DESTRUCTION.

YOU SAW THAT THERE WAS AN ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE BOARD OF PEACE BUT SINCE THEN, GUESS WHO HAS BEEN BLOCKING IT?

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS CEASEFIRE SINCE THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE CEASEFIRE.

ISRAEL HAS LITERALLY TAKEN HUNDREDS OF PALESTINIANS IN GAZA INCLUDING YESTERDAY.

EVERY DAY THERE ARE BOMBARDMENTS.

THESE PEOPLE ARE -- THE MOST DANGEROUS OF ALL, ISRAEL REFUSES ANY INTERNATIONAL OR NATIONAL PRESENCE.

THEY DON'T WANT THIS.

I BELIEVE THAT PART OF NETANYAHU'S CALCULATION FOR STARTING A WAR WITH IRAN WAS TO DERAIL EVEN THE BOARD OF PEACE.

I SAY EVEN BECAUSE THE BOARD OF PEACE AND THE COMPOSITION WERE NOT PERFECT.

WE HAD SO MANY RESERVATIONS ON IT.

WE WANTED IT TO BE PRIMARILY ROOTED IN INTERNATIONAL LAW AND INTERNATIONAL LEGITIMACY TO FOCUS ON OUR RIGHTS.

IT DOES MENTION OUR RIGHTS TO SELF-DETERMINATION AND STATEHOOD BUT EVEN THAT, IN MY OPINION, WAS REFUSING DIRECTLY BY NETANYAHU.

EVERYTHING HAS BEEN PUT ON HOLD WHILE THE PEOPLE OF GAZA ARE BEING STARVED AGAIN BECAUSE THERE IS SUCH SEVERE RESTRICTION IN THE RAFAH CROSSING -- >> IT IS VERY TROUBLING.

THERE WAS A LOT OF PUSHBACK FROM YOUR ALLIES ACTUALLY IN THE REGION AND AS YOU SAID, THE ENVOY LAID OUT A FRAMEWORK LAST WEEK.

HE SAID IT REQUIRES ONE CHOICE, FULL DECOMMISSIONING BY HAMAS AND EVERY ARMED GROUP WITH NO EXCEPTIONS AND NO CARVEOUTS.

IN THIS SEASON OF HOPE, MAKE THE RIGHT CHOICE FOR THE PALESTINIAN PEOPLE.

HOW DO YOU ASSESS THAT?

DO YOU AGREE THAT -- I ASSUME YOU AGREE BECAUSE IT IS NOT HAMAS, IT IS YOUR GROUP.

DO YOU THINK THEY WILL DECOMMISSION?

SHOULD THEY?

>> WE WANT TO SEE GAZA FREE FROM ISRAELI OCCUPATION.

REMEMBER, ISRAEL IS CONTROLLING 50% OF GAZA, SQUEEZING THE 2.3 MILLION IN THE REMAINING AND EXPANDING THE SO-CALLED YELLOW LINE, SQUEEZING THESE PEOPLE MORE AND MORE.

AGAIN, AGAIN, ENSLAVING THEM AND STARVING THEM.

WE WANT TO SEE A SOLUTION, YES.

WE HAVE BEEN INCORPORATING WITH THE WORLD BUT THE DECOMMISSIONING NEEDS TO HAPPEN ALSO FROM THE TERRORIST MILITIA IN THE WEST BANK.

>> ARE YOU COLLECTING -- CONNECTING THOSE NOW?

>> THE TERRORIST MILITIA IN THE WEST BANK, THE JEWISH TERRORISM, THOSE PEOPLE THAT ARE ARMED TO THEIR TEETH AND ARE STORMING OUR COMMUNITIES ALL OVER THE WEST BANK, AROUND JERUSALEM, EVERYWHERE, THOSE MILITIAS MUST BE DISARMED IMMEDIATELY AND THE ISRAELI ARMY MUST DO IF IT CONSIDERS ITSELF AN OCCUPYING HEART, WHICH IT DOES NOT, BY THE WAY, AS YOU KNOW.

ANNEXATION IS HAPPENING BUT HAS TO PROTECT THE CIVILIAN POPULATION ON THAT.

SO, THE CONCEPT OF DECOMMISSIONING MUST HAPPEN, ABSOLUTELY, RIGHT ACROSS THE BOARD.

WHAT WE ARE SAYING TO LEBANON AND ALL OF THE PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD, WE WANT TO PUT BACK THE GUARDRAILS ON INTERNATIONAL LAW BUT INTERNATIONAL LAW MUST BE APPLIED EQUALLY.

ENOUGH THIS CONNECTIVITY.

WE PINPOINT ONE SMALL ISSUE OF THE WHOLE PICTURE AND THEN WE FORGET ABOUT THE ACTUAL ISSUES.

>> AMBASSADOR HUSAM ZOMLOT, THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.

WE WILL FOLLOW THIS UP WITH THE HEAD OF THE UNITED NATIONS HUMANITARIAN ORGANIZATION TOMORROW.

>>> AN ESCALATION TRAP.

THAT IS WHERE OUR NEXT GUEST SAYS THE UNITED STATES IS HEADED IN ITS IRAN WAR.

ROBERT PAPE IS A PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND AN EXPERT ON GLOBAL SECURITY WHO ARGUES THAT THE MAJOR DECAPITATION OF IRAN'S LEADERSHIP FAILED TO IMMEDIATELY BREAK THE REGIME WHILE UPPING THE PRESSURE FOR MORE FORCE, INCLUDING RAISING THE SPECTER OF A GROUND WAR.

HE JOINED HARI SREENIVASAN TO DISCUSS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE INITIAL TACTICAL SUCCESSES AND THE LONG-TERM STRATEGIC SUCCESS.

>> CHRISTIANE , THANKS.

ROBERT PAPE, WELCOME BACK TO THE PROGRAM.

YOU RECENTLY LAUNCHED A SUB STACK CALLED THE ESCALATION TRAP.

FIRST OF ALL, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

>> THE ESCALATION TRAP OR A SET OF FRAMEWORKS I HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING FOR 30 YEARS.

I STARTED DEVELOPING THESE WHEN I FOUGHT FOR THE U.S.

AIR FORCE TO HELP PEOPLE UNDERSTAND WHAT IS IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN WHEN BOMBS HIT TARGETS AND A POLITICAL OUTCOME.

EVERYBODY UNDERSTANDS THAT THERE IS MILITARY ACTION AND THEN SOME POLITICAL AND STATED THEY WANT BUT WHAT IS THAT MIDDLE?

THERE ARE ESCALATION DYNAMICS.

IT IS WHERE POLITICS AND THE MILITARY INTERACT AND THAT IS WHAT IS SO SPECIAL ABOUT THE ESCALATION TRAP AND IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE, WHEN I SET IT UP JUST BEFORE THE BOMBING STARTED IN THE IRAN WAR, YOU CALL THAT THE TRAP.

NOT JUST ESCALATION DYNAMICS.

I DID THAT ON PURPOSE BECAUSE I LAID OUT THE STAGES, ONE, TWO, THREE OF THE LIKELY ESCALATION TRAP THAT WE WERE GETTING OURSELVES INTO AND YET, WITH EACH STAGE, YOU LOSE MORE CONTROL.

SO, THE ILLUSION OF CONTROL IS WHAT HELPS SET OFF THE ESCALATION TRAP IN A STAGE ONE.

PRECISION BOMBS HIT TARGETS, KILL LEADERS BUT THAT LEADS TO THEN A STRATEGIC FAILURE, REGIME BECOMES MORE AGGRESSIVE, MORE DANGEROUS, DON'T GET THE ENRICHED URANIUM AND THEN DOUBLE DOWN REGIME BECOMES MORE AGGRESSIVE STILL, TAKES THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND NOW THAT IS STAGE ONE AND STAGE TWO AND I LAID THAT OUT BEFORE THE BOMBS EVEN FELL AND HERE WE ARE WITH THE ESCALATION TRAP, THE TEETH CLOSING.

>> IN A WAY, STAGE ONE IS ALLURING, RIGHT?

IF WE CAN ACHIEVE OUR GOALS FROM 20,000 FEET UP WITHOUT PUTTING A BOOT ON THE GROUND AND GO IN AND OUT QUICKLY BUT HOW IS IT AUTOMATIC THAT IT GOES FROM STAGE ONE TO STAGE TWO?

HOW DOES THE TRAP KIND OF GET SPRUNG?

>> WHAT HAPPENS IS, TO ADD TO WHAT YOU JUST SAID, WHICH IS EXCELLENT, ONE MORE POINT WHICH IS THAT YOU ARE SO CONSONANT OF SUCCESS, STRATEGIC SUCCESS, YOU DON'T HAVE ANY BACKUP PLAN TO DEAL WITH THE ENEMY LASHING BACK.

SO, ONCE YOU ARE SO CONFIDENT AND, REALLY, WITH PRECISION BOMBS WHEN YOU HAVE GENERALS WITH STARS SAYING THIS WILL BE DESTROYED, 90% PLUS PROBABILITY, MY GOODNESS.

THIS IS TRUE.

THESE ARE NOT FALSE STATEMENTS BUT IT IS THE ILLUSION OF CONTROL AND THAT ILLUSION THEN LEADS TO DOWNPLAYING WORST-CASE SCENARIOS AND IT IS NOT UNIQUE TO PRESIDENT TRUMP.

THIS MAY BE THE WORST ESCALATION TRAP EVER, BY THE WAY WITH SMART BOMBS BUT WHAT HAPPENED, SAY, FOR EXAMPLE, WITH KOSOVO, MARCH 99, THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION, A THREE DAY AIR WAR, TRIED TO TAKE DOWN THE REGIME IN SERBIA, TRY TO HELP THE PRO-DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT IN COSO, THIS REPUBLIC IN THE FORM OF YUGOSLAVIA AND WHAT DOES IT DO?

HE LAUNCHES 30,000 TROOPS AND ETHNICALLY CLEANSES HALF OF COSO.

THAT IS 800,000+ CIVILIANS KILLED 3000.

THERE WAS NO ARMY AT THE TIME, THAT THREE DAY AIR WAR WAS THE WORST CASE AND I KNOW BECAUSE I TALKED TO THE PEOPLE THAT PLANNED IT.

THEY DID NOT EVEN IMAGINE WHAT WOULD BE THE WORST CASE.

WHAT WE SEE HERE IS TAKING HORMUZ.

IT IS NOT SO MUCH THAT THERE WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN SOME MENTION OF THAT IN THE BRIEFINGS TO TRUMP .

THAT IS NOT QUITE RIGHT.

IT IS THE ILLUSION OF CONTROL.

IT IS PRESIDENT TRUMP AND OTHERS AROUND HIS CIRCLE SAYING MY GOODNESS, WE WILL NOT JUST HAVE THE BOMBS HIT A TARGET, WE CONTROL.

WE WILL DOMINATE.

THEY WOULDN'T DARE TAKE HORMUZ.

WELL, THEY DID.

THEY GOT IT.

NOW THE CONTROL MORE OIL THAN WE DO.

>> IS THERE A DIFFERENCE HERE?

CAN YOU SPELL OUT FOR OUR AUDIENCE, WAS THIS TACTICALLY A SUCCESS VERSUS STRATEGICALLY A FAILURE?

WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE?

>> YEAH.

IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT WHEN BOMBS HIT TARGETS, THEY DESTROY THE FACILITY.

THEY DESTROY THE COMMUNICATIONS OF LEADERS AND THEY KILL LEADERS.

THAT IS TACTICAL SUCCESS.

THAT IS WHAT OUR MILITARY IS THE BEST IN THE WORLD AT.

I HAVE TALKED TO THE BEST PILOTS IN THE AIR FORCE AND THEY PUT BOMBS ON TARGETS BETTER THAN ANYBODY ELSE.

WHAT IS HAPPENING IS ONCE THE BOMB HITS A TARGET, HOW DO YOU GET TO THE POLITICAL OUTCOME, THE STRATEGIC SUCCESS?

THAT IS THE STAGES OF ESCALATION WHERE POLITICS COMES IN.

BOMBS HIT THE TARGET AND NOW SUDDENLY POLITICS INSIDE OF THE TARGET COUNTRY, BOTH THE REGIME AND THE SOCIETY CHANGE.

ALL THOSE PREWAR TRENDS YOU HAD, ALL OF THAT INTEL THAT YOU HAD SITK, ALL OF THESE FANCY WORDS FOR THE TOP-SECRET INTEL, NONE OF THAT NOW IS STILL THE SAME BECAUSE THE POLITICS IS CHANGING, LITERALLY WITH THE DROPPING OF THE BOMB AND THAT IS WHERE MY WORK HAS COME IN, TO SHOW THAT FOR OVER 100 YEARS, WHEN YOU BOMB LEADERS, AIR POWER ALONE HAS NEVER TOPPLED A REGIME BECAUSE WHAT IT DOES IS IT CHANGES POLITICS INSIDE OF THE TARGET, MAKES THE REGIME MORE LIKELY, THE NEW LEADERS MORE LIKELY TO FIGHT BACK AND BE AGGRESSIVE, MAKES EVEN THE PRO-DEMOCRACY MOVEMENTS GUN SHY ABOUT SUPPORTING THE BOMBER, THE 800 POUND GORILLA OF THE UNITED STATES WHO IS DOING ALL THIS AND WHAT YOU END UP WITH THEN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LASHING BACK, LASHING BACK.

IN THIS CASE, THAT ALWAYS MEANT HORIZONTAL ESCALATION, THE GCC COUNTRIES WHICH, AGAIN, PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS SAID, WE DIDN'T THINK THEY HIT THE GCC COUNTRIES.

THIS IS JUST LIKE THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION, DIDN'T THINK THEY WOULD CLEANSE.

WORSE THAN THAT, THEY COULD TAKE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

UNLIKE SERBIA, THIS IS LIKELY GOING DOWN AS THE WORST CATASTROPHE OF THE ESCALATION TRAP WE HAVE SEEN WITH AIR POWER IN HISTORY.

>> THERE IS ALWAYS THE FOG OF WAR AND WHETHER IT IS INTENTIONAL OR ACCIDENTAL.

YOU HAVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE.

IN THIS CASE, BY DAY TWO, WE HAD DOZENS OF SCHOOLGIRLS KILLED.

AND, WE HAD ENTIRE FAMILY MEMBERS OF THE AYATOLLAH KILLED.

DOES THAT SPUR -- I DON'T KNOW, ALMOST A UNIFICATION OF DIFFERENT BRANCHES INSIDE THE POPULATION TO SAY, NOBODY KILLS OUR DAUGHTERS?

>> EVEN WITH SMART BOMBS, THERE IS GOING TO BE COLLATERAL DAMAGE OF A SERIOUS NATURE.

WHY?

BECAUSE THE ALLURE OF THE PRECISION MEANS THE TARGETS WILL BE CHOSEN IN THE CIVILIAN AREAS.

THIS IS PART AND PARCEL OF WHY THERE IS SO MUCH CIVILIAN DAMAGE, EVEN THOUGH WE ARE IN THE SMART BOMB AGE AND IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE, WE KILL AND LITERALLY BURNED TO DEATH NEARLY 200 GIRLS -- WE HAD THEM MULTIPLE TIMES, NOT JUST ONCE, WITH THE TOMAHAWKS.

THIS IS NOW FUEL FOR THE NATIONALIST FIRE.

THIS MAKES IT -- THE SUPREME LEADERS IN IRAN TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THIS BUT WE CAN TRY TO DUCK IT AND DOWNPLAY IT.

THAT IS NOT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IN IRAN WITH THE TARGET GOVERNMENT AND ALSO ACROSS THE GCC BECAUSE OTHER STATES ARE SEEING THAT WHEN WE GET INVOLVED IN THESE PRECISION WARS, THEY ARE ANYTHING BUT PURELY SURGICAL.

THERE IS LOTS OF DAMAGE AND NOW THERE IS ANGER THAT IS BUILDING IN IRAN AND THE SUPREME LEADER SAID THEY WANT PAYBACK.

WELL, WHAT IS AN EYE FOR AN EYE?

A CIVILIAN AIRLINER.

WE NEED TO UNDERSTAND THERE IS ABOUT 200 PEOPLE IN A CIVILIAN AIRLINER.

WE JUST KILLED 200 PEOPLE.

WE WILL CERTAINLY BE ANGRY AT THEM FOR DOING THAT BUT WE ARE SETTING IN TRAIN EXACTLY THE ANGER FOR HOW YOU GET INDISCRIMINATE TERRORISM AND YOU GET PEOPLE WILLING TO DIE TO KILL.

>> SO, WE HAVE HAD THESE MOMENTS WHERE EACH SIDE HAS NOW ESCALATED BECAUSE OF WHAT THE OTHER DID, WHAT THE OTHER PERCEIVES THE FIRST ONE DID, ET CETERA.

BUT, THERE IS A MOMENT WHEN THE PRESIDENT ON FEBRUARY 28, HE TOLD IRANIANS, HE SAID TAKE OVER YOUR GOVERNMENT.

IT WILL BE YOURS TO TAKE.

IS THERE ANY EXAMPLE IN HISTORY WHERE AN AIR CAMPAIGN HAS LED TO A CITIZEN UPRISING TO TAKE POWER THAT HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL?

>> THE ANSWER IS NO.

NOT A SINGLE TRACE IN OVER 100 YEARS.

BOMBING TO WIN COVERS EVERY AIR CAMPAIGN FROM HERE TO WORLD WAR I AND MANY ARTICLES PUBLISHED IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS, PROBABLY ABOUT 40 CASES, WE ARE 0 FOR 40.

THIS IS RARE.

RARELY DO YOU GET IN ANYTHING, MUCH LESS MILITARY OPERATIONS, LITERALLY 100% OF A PATTERN BUT THAT IS WHAT YOU HAVE HERE.

WHAT DID WE SEE IN THE CASE OF IRAN?

WAS IRAN LIKELY TO BE AN EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE, FOR EXAMPLE?

THERE IS SOMETHING EXCEPTIONAL HERE.

IN THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY, IRAN MURDERED SOME 20 TO 30,000 OF THE PROTESTERS AS THEY TOOK TO THE STREETS.

WHAT THE IRANIANS SHOWED WAS THEIR SECURITY FORCES WERE BOTH PLENTY CAPABLE AND PLENTY WILLING TO BE INCREDIBLY BRUTAL HERE.

WHEN PRESIDENT TRUMP IS ASKING THOSE PROTESTERS TO COME UP AND TO RISE UP, WE NEED TO UNDERSTAND, HE IS PLAYING WITH OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY.

IS LIKE A GAMBLER PLAYING WITH OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY, OTHER PEOPLE'S LIVES.

THE PEOPLE HERE WHO HAVE TO TAKE THE RISK ARE THE IRANIANS WHO JUST SAW 20 TO 30,000 BODIES PILE UP IN THE STREETS.

THIS IS PRETTY DIFFICULT HERE.

NOW, ON TOP OF IT, THE AIR CAMPAIGN IS IMPOSING ALL KINDS OF COSTS KILLING THE GIRLS THAT WE JUST TALKED ABOUT.

NOW, THERE IS ALL KINDS OF DISRUPTION TO THE ECONOMY.

THAT PRICE IS BEING PAID BY THE IRANIAN PEOPLE, NOT BY THE LEADERS AND WE CAN SAY, WELL, THEY WILL BLAME THEIR OWN GOVERNMENT FOR THIS.

THEY ARE NEVER GOING TO BLAME THEIR OWN GOVERNMENT FOR THIS.

THEY ARE BLAMING THE PEOPLE DOING THE HARM.

THEY ARE GOING TO BLAME AMERICA AND ISRAEL.

>> SO, WHAT HAPPENS?

HOW DID THIS ESCALATION PLAY OUT WHERE NOW YOU HAVE THE ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOOD, SO TO SPEAK, INVOLVED.

IRAN HAS LOBBED MISSILES AT DUBAI AND ABU DHABI AND THE EMIRATES ARE ON EDGE AND THEN YOU'VE GOT SLIGHT PATHS BEING DIVERTED OVER COUNTRIES AND, OF COURSE, AN ABSOLUTE BOTTLENECK AND CHOKEHOLD OF GLOBAL OIL FLOWING BACK AND FORTH.

>> THAT POINT YOU MADE, WE ARE HEADING TO STAGE THREE OF THE TRAP WHICH WILL BE WHEN THE TRAP REALLY CLOSES AND WE ARE LIKELY IN THE FOR MONTHS' LONG WAR HERE.

SO, WHY IS THAT?

AS I HAVE BEEN LAYING OUT, INTO STAGE TWO, THERE IS NOT JUST A -FOR-TAT .

THAT IS GOING ON BUT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, THAT IS WHAT IS SPECIAL ABOUT THIS CASE.

FOR 50 YEARS, AMERICA'S NUMBER 1:THE MIDDLE EAST HAS BEEN TO PREVENT AN OIL HEGEMON IN THE MIDDLE EAST, NOT ISRAEL.

ISRAEL COULD MAYBE HELP WITH THAT BUT ISRAEL WAS NOT NUMBER ONE.

PREVENTING OIL HEGEMON.

WHAT IS AN OIL HEGEMON?

ONE COUNTRY, WHETHER IT IS THE SOVIET UNION AND THE COLD WAR, IRAQ, OR NOW IRAN, CONTROLLING THE OIL IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

THAT IS THE PERSIAN GULF, THAT IS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

NOW, IRAN HAS NEVER BEEN AN OIL HEGEMON BEFORE, NOW IT IS AND THAT IS 20% OF THE WORLD'S OIL IS MORE THAN THE 16% AMERICA PRODUCES.

NOW, THEY ARE IN CHARGE OF OIL PRICES MORE THAN ANYBODY ELSE AND THEY ARE LEVERAGING THAT FOR GEOPOLITICAL GAIN, LET'S SAY THE INDIANS AND SO FORTH.

THEY ARE ALSO MAKING MONEY.

THEY HAVE MADE ABOUT 1,000,000,000 1/2 DOLLARS SO FAR HERE ON THIS OIL.

THE MONEY IS IN CHINESE BANKS THAT WE CAN'T GO TAKE IT OUT AND IF THIS GOES ON FOR ANOTHER SIX WEEKS, ANOTHER SIX MONTHS, THEY ARE AN OIL HEGEMON WITH ALL OF THE NUCLEAR CAPABILITY, THE BALANCE OF POWER IS REALLY GOING TO CHANGE HERE.

THE OTHER MILITARY SHOE TO FALL WHICH IS STAGE THREE IS THE GROUND OPERATIONS.

THOSE MARINES ARE MOVING.

THE 82nd AIRBORNE IS PREPARING AND THIS WOULD BE STAGE THREE.

THIS IS THE THRESHOLD OF STAGE THREE.

THEY ARE NOT THERE YET.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER 10 DAYS, 14 DAYS BEFORE THE BEGINNING FORCES ARE IN PLACE.

IN THAT PERIOD OF TIME, WE WILL SEE A LOT OF BACK AND FORTH.

I'M HOPING WE WILL FIND A WAY OUT SO WE DON'T CROSS STAGE THREE BUT IF WE CROSS STAGE THREE, POLITICS WILL CHANGE AGAIN.

THIS ISN'T JUST ABOUT MILITARY ACTION.

WHEN THOSE MARINES HIT THE BEACHES, MANY WILL DIE.

WHEN THEY DIE, MANY WHO ARE TRUMP SUPPORTERS WILL DOUBLE DOWN THEIR SUPPORT.

THEY DON'T WANT TO SAY THESE PEOPLE DIED FOR US AND NOW WE ARE GOING TO ABANDON THEM.

>> YOU THINK WE ARE JUST A COUPLE WEEKS AWAY FROM STAGE THREE?

>> WE ARE JUST A COUPLE OF WEEKS AWAY FROM STAGE THREE WHICH, I ALWAYS SAID -- AGAIN, I PUBLISHED ALL THREE STAGES BEFORE THE FIRST BOMB FELL.

I ALWAYS SAID TO STAGE THREE WOULD BE, QUOTE, LIMITED TERRITORIAL CONTROL.

IT WOULD INVOLVE THE MARINES, MAYBE SOME AIRBORNE.

WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IS THERE WOULD BE COASTAL AREAS.

MAYBE WE ARE GOING TO GO INTO SOME OF THE NUCLEAR SITES.

I MADE ALL OF THIS OUT THE DAYS BEFORE THE BOMBING AND THAT IS NOW WHAT WE ARE SEEING, QUOTE, PREPARING FOR.

THE PROBLEM HERE IS THAT THESE PREPARATIONS MAY WELL BECOME REALITY BECAUSE IT IS GOING TO BE VERY DIFFICULT TO WALK AWAY AND LEAVE IRAN IN CONTROL OF THAT MUCH POWER.

>> FOR THE RECORD, THE PRESIDENT HAS SAID, LAST WEEK, I AM NOT PUTTING TROOPS ANYWHERE AND IF I WAS, I CERTAINLY WOULDN'T TELL YOU.

IS THERE A WAY TO WITHDRAW FROM THIS WITHOUT TROOPS ON THE GROUND?

>> THERE IS STILL DIPLOMATIC OPTIONS HERE BUT THE PRICE IS GOING UP HIGH AND I AM NOT SURE PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL PAY THE PRICE.

YOU SEE, BEFORE THE FIRST BOMB FELL, THERE WAS -- IRAN WAS WILLING TO HAVE A DEAL AND THIS WAS BEING EXPLAINED TO TRUMP IN THE OVAL OFFICE BY HIS NEGOTIATORS AND THE DEAL WAS IRAN WOULD KEEP THE 3.5% ENRICHED URANIUM.

TRUMP SAID NO DEAL.

HE IS GOING TO DO THE BOMBING.

NOW, IRAN, BECAUSE IT IS MORE POWERFUL -- IT IS NOT WEAKER.

IT IS GOING TO WANT MORE.

IT IS GOING TO WANT THE 3% ENRICHED URANIUM.

WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING THE FIRST WEEK IS THEY ARE GOING TO WANT OIL SANCTIONS LIFTED.

THEY HAVE ALREADY GOT THE 3.5%.

NOW THEY'VE ALREADY GOT THE OIL SANCTIONS.

THEY ARE GOING TO WANT MORE AND WHAT IS THAT MORE?

PROBABLY MILITARY CONTAINMENT OF ISRAEL.

>> ON THE ONE HAND, THE PRESIDENT OF THE ADMINISTRATION SAID WE HAD, QUOTE, OBLITERATED THE NUCLEAR CAPABILITY AND THE FACILITIES IN IRAN AND THEN BEFORE THIS CAMPAIGN, THAT WAS ALSO IN PART THE JUSTIFICATION THAT WE WANT TO REALLY PREVENT THEM.

>> THAT IS RIGHT.

I HAVE MODELED THE BOMBING OF IRAN FOR 20 YEARS.

AMERICANS ARE GOING TO BOMB IN THE TIME.

IS REALLY CAN'T DO THAT.

THEY DON'T HAVE THE AIRPOWER TO BE ABLE TO TAKE OUT.

WE ARE GOING TO TAKE IT OUT.

WHEN WE DO, WE DISABLE THE INDUSTRIAL FACILITY BUT WE DON'T GET THE NUCLEAR MATERIAL.

ON TOP OF THAT, THE IAEA IS NEVER BROUGHT BACK IN.

IRAN IS NOT GOING TO JUST OPEN THIS BACKUP TO ON-SITE INSPECTION, GIVE IT UP AND SO FORTH.

THEY ARE ANGRY.

WE SAW THAT RIGHT AWAY, EVEN THOUGH PRESIDENT TRUMP DECLARED OBLITERATED THE PROGRAM, HE BEGAN NEGOTIATING WITH IRAN AGAIN.

WHY?

BECAUSE OF NUCLEAR MATERIAL.

SO, MY ANALYSIS HAS ALWAYS BEEN ABOUT A YEAR LATER YOU WOULD PANIC.

THAT IS THE FIRST MATERIAL.

YOU WOULD NEVER REALLY KNOW IF IT WAS BEING FASHIONED INTO A NUCLEAR WEAPON OR A RADIOLOGICAL BOMB.

YOU WOULD DO REGIME CHANGE.

BOMBING FOR REGIME CHANGE WAS ALWAYS STAGE TO.

I SAID, THIS IS HOW AMERICA WILL TALK ITSELF INTO THE REGIME CHANGE WAR, WHICH THEY HAVE RESISTED FOR DECADES.

THEY WILL FIRST START BY BOMBING AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED AND THAT IS WHY I COULD PUBLISH THE STAGES OF THE ESCALATION THAT WE ARE GOING THROUGH DAYS BEFORE WE DID THIS BOMBING ON FEBRUARY 28.

THAT IS WHY I WAS CONFIDENT IN WHAT THE TARGET SET WOULD BE.

THIS WAS ALWAYS, ALWAYS THE STAGES YOU WOULD GO THROUGH ONCE YOU KNOCKED OUT IN JUNE.

YOU KNOCKED OUT THE FACILITY, NOT THE ENRICHED URANIUM.

IT IS ALWAYS ABOUT THE ENRICHED URANIUM.

>> UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE ROBERT PATE AND ORDER OF THE ESCALATION TRAPS ABSTRACT.

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

>>> FINALLY, A HERO WHO STOPPED A TERRORIST ATTACK WITH A HUG.

TODAY, NATHAN RECEIVED A GEORGE MEDAL FOR BRAVERY FROM KING CHARLES AT ST.

JAMES' PALACE HERE IN LONDON BUT HE SAYS HE WAS JUST IN THE RIGHT PLACE AT THE RIGHT TIME ON JANUARY 20, 2023 WHEN HE PREVENTED A LONE WOLF TERRORIST DETONATING A BOMB AT A BRITISH HOSPITAL.

HE WAS A PATIENT AT THE TIME WHO HAD STEPPED OUTSIDE FOR SOME AIR, NOTICING A MAN ACTING STRANGELY.

HE WENT OVER TO SEE IF HE WAS OKAY BEFORE REALIZING THIS MAN HAD A BOMB.

HE MANAGED TO TALK THE MAN OUT OF COMMITTING AN ATROCITY AT THE MATERNITY WARD BY SPENDING HOURS LISTENING TO HIM.

HE SAID THERE WOULD BE ATTACKER OPEN UP TO HIM AND EVENTUALLY ASKED FOR A CUDDLE BEFORE TELLING HIM TO PHONE THE POLICE BEFORE HE CHANGED HIS MIND.

HE WAS LATER JAILED FOR 37 YEARS FOR TAKING THE HOMEMADE PRESSURE COOKER BOMB TO THE HOSPITAL WITH THE INTENTION TO KILL.

NATHAN DEMONSTRATED THE POWER OF AN ORDINARY CITIZEN TO CARE ENOUGH TO STEP INTO ACT WITH KINDNESS AND EMPATHY TO SAVE SO MANY LIVES THAT DAY.

>>> THAT IS A FOR OUR PROGRAM TONIGHT.

IF YOU WANT TO FIND OUT WHAT IS COMING UP EVERY NIGHT, SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER AT PBS.ORG/AMANPOUR.

THANKS FOR WATCHING AND GOODBYE FROM LONDON.