Amanpour and Company

>>> WELL, COMING UP NEXT, TO THE USE OF NUCLEAR POWER IN OUR EVER-CHANGING WORLD.

THE FIRST EVER NUCLEAR ENERGY SUMMIT TOOK PLACE IN BRUSSELS LAST WEEK WITH SEVERAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES CALLING FOR MORE GROWTH IN THE SECTOR, HOPING THAT IT COULD HELP HIT CLIMATE TARGETS AND REDUCE RELIANCE ON RUSSIAN GAS AND OIL.

BUT THIS COMES AT A TIME WHEN CONCERNS ARE GROWING ABOUT IRAN'S CHINA'S NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES.

IN PART TWO OF HIS CONVERSATION WITH WALTER ISAACSON, DIRECTOR GENERAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, RAFAEL GROSSI, DISCUSSES WHAT WE SHOULD AND SHOULDN'T BE WORRIED ABOUT.

>> RAFAEL GROSSI, WELCOME BACK TO THE SHOW.

>> THAT'S MY PLEASURE.

HELLO.

>> WELL, LET'S TALK ABOUT IRAN.

LAST MONTH YOUR AGENCY SAID, I THINK, THAT IRAN HAD ACTUALLY REDUCED ITS QUANTITY OF WEAPONS-GRADE WHILE EXPANDING ITS WHOLE NUCLEAR PROGRAM.

TELL ME, DOES THAT MEAN WE'RE GETTING INTO A BETTER POSITION VIS-A-VIS IRAN, OR ARE YOU STILL PESSIMISTIC?

>> NOT NECESSARILY.

OF COURSE WE INFORM THAT BECAUSE WE ARE OBJECTIVE, AND WE HAVE TO INFORM WHAT THE INVENTORY IN TERMS OF ENRICHED URANIUM ACTUALLY IS, WITHOUT SPECULATING OR POLITICIZING.

WE ARE LIKE AN INTERNATIONAL AUDITOR.

BUT WE SAID THAT, BUT BECAUSE IT WAS A REPORT COMING AFTER ANOTHER REPORT OF A PREVIOUS COURT.

BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS A TREND OF INCREASE OF NUCLEAR MATERIAL, ENRICHED AT A VERY, VERY HIGH LEVEL.

SO THE IRAN ISSUE IS A VERY COMPLEX ONE.

IT HAS MANY, MANY ASPECTS, NOT ONLY THE AMOUNT OF ENRICHED URANIUM, WHICH IS VERY IMPORTANT, BECAUSE THIS IS THE STUFF FROM WHICH NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE MADE, OR AT LEAST ESSENTIALLY FOR THE EXPLOSIVE CAPACITY.

BUT THERE ARE OTHER THINGS THAT HAVE TO DO WITH THE CAPACITY THAT MY INSPECTORS HAVE TO HAVE A FULL VISIBILITY OF WHAT IS GOING ON THERE.

AND THIS IS WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING HAS BEEN STEADILY REDUCED.

WE AREN'T THERE.

I DON'T WANT TO MISLEAD YOU OR CONFUSE THE AUDIENCE.

THE IAEA IS THERE.

WE ARE INSPECTING, BUT WE'RE NOT INSPECTING AT THE LEVELS AND THE DEPTH WE SHOULD BE GIVEN THE NATURE OF THAT PROBLEM.

SO, YOU KNOW, I'M TELLING MY URA IRANIAN COUNTERPARTS, WE WANT TO REIGNITE THIS PROCESS.

DIPLOMACY IS INDISPENSABLE.

THE AGREEMENT THAT EXISTED, THE SO-CALLED JCPOA THAT HAD BEEN SIGNED IN 2015, IS, IN ESSENCE ABANDONED OR IT HASN'T BEEN DECLARED DEAD, BUT IT IS AN EMPTY SHELL AT THE MOMENT.

NOBODY IS FOLLOWING ITS PROVISIONS.

THERE IS NO DIPLOMACY.

THERE IS NO CONVERSATION.

AND YET AGAIN, THE IAEA IS THE ONLY LINK THAT PROVIDES SOME VISIBILITY WHAT'S HAPPENING THERE AND TRY TO BRING PEOPLE TOGETHER.

SO WE ARE WORRIED.

AT THE SAME TIME, WE ARE COOL-HEADED, AND WE ARE, YOU KNOW, PERSEVERING IN OUR DESIRE TO ENGAGE MORE DIPLOMATICALLY WITH IRAN.

THIS IS INDISPENSABLE.

>> DOES THAT MEAN THERE'S SOME POSSIBILITY IN YOUR MIND WE COULD GET BACK TO THAT JOINT AGREEMENT THAT WE HAD WITH IRAN?

>> I DON'T KNOW IF WE WILL -- I MEAN IT'S UP TO THE PARTIES.

I MEAN I'M NOT A PARTY TO THAT AGREEMENT.

I WAS THE INSPECTOR OF THAT AGREEMENT.

SO WE WERE INSPECTING WHAT THEY AGREED POLITICALLY.

SO I'M NOT AT THE POLITICAL TABLE.

I'M AT THE TECHNICAL TABLE.

AND THEY CAN GO BACK TO THAT OR HAVE SOMETHING ELSE.

EVERYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

ONE THING I SHOULD SAY, AND IT'S THAT THAT AGREEMENT BACK IN 2015 WAS PREDICATED UPON A CERTAIN NUMBER OF -- OR A CERTAIN TYPE OF TECHNOLOGIES AND CAPACITIES AND CAPABILITIES.

BUT THIS WAS TEN YEARS AGO.

SO 2024, 2025 ALMOST IS TEN YEARS AFTER THAT AGREEMENT WAS SIGNED.

SO IRAN HAS NOW MUCH FASTER, MORE EFFICIENT, MORE PERFORMING CENTRIFUGES.

IRAN HAS MORE FACILITIES PRODUCING THE PARTS OF THOSE.

IT'S DEVELOPING, CONSTRUCTING NEW SITES WHERE THE NUCLEAR ACTIVITIES ARE TAKING PLACE.

SO THAT AGREEMENT IS CLEARLY SUPERSEDED AT THIS POINT.

SO MAYBE FOR POLITICAL REASONS, THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SAY WE HAVE TO GO BACK TO THAT AGREEMENT.

OKAY.

FINE WITH US.

BUT THE REALITY IS THAT THE IRAN OF 2015 IS NOT THE IRAN OF 2024.

>> THE RMAIN ROLE OF YOUR AGENC IS AS INSPECTORS TO TRY TO FIGURE OUT WHAT'S HAPPENING THERE.

YOU SAY YOU'VE BEEN SUFFERING FROM A LACK OF TRANSPARENCY.

I WANT YOU TO READ A QUOTE AND HAVE YOU EXPLAIN IT.

YOU SAY, THE AGENCY HAS LOST CONTINUITY OF KNOWLEDGE IN RELATION TO IRAN'S PRODUCTION AND INVENTORY OF CENTRIFUGES, ROTORS, BELLOWS, HEAVY WATER, AND URANIUM ORE CONCENTRATE.

THAT SEEMS PRETTY BAD.

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU PUSH THE IRANIANS AND SAY, WE HAVE TO HAVE MORE TRANSPARENCY.

>> WELL, THEY TELL US, YOU CANNOT SEE THAT BECAUSE THIS WAS PART OF THE JCPOA VERIFICATION MANDATES FOR PERMISSIONS THAT THE AGENCY USED TO HAVE.

SO JCPOA WAS ABANDONED.

HERE'S OUR RETALIATION.

YOU CANNOT DO THIS.

YOU CANNOT PERFORM THESE FUNCTIONS ANYMORE.

MY ARGUMENT IS A DIFFERENT ONE.

MY ARGUMENT IS THAT THE MORE WE CONTINUE IN THIS SITUATION WITH IRAN GROWING ITS CAPACITY, PRODUCING ALL THESE THINGS YOU MENTIONED, THE MORE DIFFICULT IT WILL BE IF ONE DAY -- AND WE HOPE THAT WILL BE THE CASE -- THE ACTORS THAT BE, THE POWERS THAT BE, WASHINGTON, LONDON, PARIS, MOSCOW, BEIJING, WERE TO GO BACK TO AN AGREEMENT.

THE FIRST THING THEY WOULD SAY IS, THEY WOULD SAY, MR. GROSSI, GO TO IRAN AND EL US EXACTLY WHAT THEY HAVE SO WE KNOW WHAT WE SHOULD CUT OR RESTRICT OR LIMIT, ISN'T IT?

IT'S A SIMPLE LOGIC.

AND AT THIS POINT WITH ALL THIS ACTIVITY THAT TAKES PLACE WITHOUT MY EYES AND EARS HAVING ACCESS TO THAT, HOW AM I GOING TO DO THAT?

AND THIS IS AN ARGUMENT THAT I ALSO USE, IF I CAN USE THE VERB, WITH MY IRANIAN COUNTERPARTS.

I SAY, LISTEN, YOU KEEP SAYING YOU WANT TO GO BACK TO AN AGREEMENT.

IF YOU KEEP NOT ALLOWING ME TO DO MY JOB NOW, THE DAY WHEN YOU WANT TO GO BACK, I WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SIGN ANYTHING ON THE DOTTED LINE.

THIS IS CLEAR.

I WOULD HAVE TO KNOW EXACTLY OTHERWISE INSTEAD OF AN AGREEMENT, YOU WILL HAVE AN ILLUSION OF AN AGREEMENT.

THIS IS WHY IT MAY BE A BIT TECHIE.

IT MAY SOUND A LITTLE BIT, BUT IT NEEDS TO BE CONCRETE.

WE NEED TO RESTORE THE CAPABILITIES NOW SO THAT WE CAN HAVE A MORE STABLE SITUATION IN THE FUTURE.

>> WELL, WAIT.

WHAT IF IRAN WON'T DO THAT?

WHAT CAN BE DONE?

>> IF IRAN DOES NOT DO THAT, WE WILL BE APPROACHING A POINT WHERE THE AGENCY WILL BE, OR I WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT I AM PREVENTED FROM GIVING THE CREDIBLE ASSURANCE THAT ARE NEEDED, THAT WE KNOW EXACTLY THAT THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS ENTIRELY IN PEACEFUL USES BECAUSE I WILL HAVE LOST VISIBILITY.

I WILL NOT DO THAT.

LET ME GIVE YOU A REFERENCE.

IN THE LATE 1980s, THAT HAPPENED IN IRAQ, WHERE THE AGENCY BELIEVED AND THE WORLD BELIEVED THAT EVERYTHING WAS CORRECT.

BUT MANY THINGS WERE HAPPENING WITHOUT THE INSPECTORS AND MY PREDECESSORS KNOWING IT.

WE LEARNED FROM THAT SAD EXPERIENCE WE DON'T WANT TO GO BACK TO THAT.

I DON'T THINK IT'S IN ANYONE'S INTEREST.

SO, YOU KNOW, SHUTTING INSPECTORS OUT, TELLING INSPECTORS GO AWAY IS NEVER, NEVER A GOOD IDEA.

>> I READ SOMEWHERE THAT IRAN HAS THE CAPABILITY, I THINK, OF CREATING WITH ITS PROGRAM 13 NUCLEAR WEAPONS, 7 WITHIN THE MONTH OF A BREAKOUT.

IN OTHER WORDS, IF THEY BREAK OUT AND DECIDE TO JUST GO FOR IT.

TELL ME HOW SOON DO YOU THINK IRAN COULD CREATE A NUCLEAR WEAPON?

>> AGAIN, LET ME BE OBJECTIVE.

YOU KNOW, SOME ANALYSTS CAN HAVE THE LUXURY OF SAYING THOSE THINGS.

FIRST OF ALL, IRAN DOES NOT HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS TODAY, AS WE SPEAK.

SO WE HAVE TO BE VERY OBJECTIVE HERE.

IRAN IS ACCUMULATING VAST AMOUNTS OF HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM, AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT, OF COURSE, DRAWS OUR ATTENTION BECAUSE NO OTHER COUNTRY, WITHOUT NUCLEAR WEAPONS, IS ENRICHING AT THESE HIGH LEVELS.

ANOTHER POINT I WOULD DRAW ATTENTION TO IS THAT A NUCLEAR WEAPON REQUIRES MORE THAN HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM OR PLUTONIUM TO GO BANG, ALL RIGHT?

IT IS A COMPLEX SYSTEM THAT REQUIRES OTHER THINGS.

NORMALLY, THOSE PROCURING NUCLEAR WEAPONS TEST THEM LIKE THE NORTH KOREAN STATE.

SO THERE ARE A NUMBER OF THINGS.

I SAY THIS BECAUSE IT IS, OF COURSE, CONCERNING.

WE ARE IN A TRAJECTORY THAT IS NOT GOOD.

WE HAVE TO PERSUADE IRAN TO COME BACK TO FULL COOPERATION WITH US.

BUT, OF COURSE, WE ARE NOT IN A SCENARIO THAT WE HAVE THE WEAPONS IN THAT COUNTRY.

>> I THINK THERE ARE ABOUT 413 NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS OPERATING AROUND THE WORLD IN 31 COUNTRIES.

10% OF THE ENERGY OF THE WORLD AND MAYBE A VERY HIGH PERCENTAGE OF THE RENEWABLE ENERGY.

HOW IMPORTANT DO YOU THINK IT IS THAT WE BUILD MORE NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS, AND WHAT ARE YOU DOING TO ENCOURAGE THAT?

>> IT'S INDISPENSABLE.

IT'S INDISPENSABLE.

THE INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS, AS AGREED IN THE LAST CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE IN DUBAI IN NOVEMBER, IS THAT NUCLEAR SHOULD BE ACCELERATED TOGETHER WITH RENEWABLES, CO2 FREE ENERGIES.

SO OUT OF THAT PROPORTION THAT YOU MENTIONED, WE SHOULD MENTION THAT 25% OF THE CLEAN ENERGY IN THE WORLD IS OF NUCLEAR ORIGIN RIGHT NOW.

SO THIS IS WHY WE ARE HAVING A NUCLEAR ENERGY SUMMIT IN BRUSSELS, WHERE LEADERS FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD ARE COMING BECAUSE THEY HAVE COME TO THE REALIZATION THAT IF YOU WANT TO GO TO NET ZERO OR TO A DECARBONIZED BY 2050 OR WHATEVER THAT MAY BE, WITHOUT NUCLEAR, IT WILL BE CLOSE TO IMPOSSIBLE.

SO THE IAEA IS THE INTERNATIONAL PLATFORM FOR COOPERATION.

WE ARE THE INSPECTORS THAT PREVENT THIS NUCLEAR MATERIAL FROM BEING USED FOR HOSTILE PURPOSES.

WE ARE ENSURING THAT THE ENERGY IS SAFE AND SECURE.

SO FOR US, IT'S A VERY IMPORTANT MOMENT.

THERE'S A TURNING POINT HERE THAT WE ARE SEEING, AND IN THIS SENSE, WE FEEL REALLY EXCITED.

>> CHINA IS EXPANDING INTEREST NUCLEAR ARSENAL AT A PACE WE HAVEN'T SEEN COUNTRIES DO FOR 30 OR 40 YEARS.

YOU RECENTLY MET WITH CHINESE OFFICIALS.

WHAT DID YOU SAY TO THEM, AND WHAT'S YOUR PROGNOSIS THERE?

>> WELL, CHINA IS ONE OF THE MOST, I WOULD SAY, DYNAMIC COUNTRIES IN TERMS OF INCREASING THE NUCLEAR SHARE, NUCLEAR ENERGY SHARE.

THEY HAVE 30-SOMETHING REACTORS, AND AS WE SPEAK, THEY ARE CONSTRUCTING MORE THAN 20 REACTORS.

THAT BEING SAID, THE PROPORTION, THE OVERALL PROPORTION OF NUCLEAR ENERGY MIX CONTINUES TO BE QUITE LOW.

I THINK IT'S VERY IMPORTANT BECAUSE AS YOU KNOW, THE CHINESE ENERGY MIX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON COAL AND OTHER CO2-HEAVY EMITTERS.

SO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE INCREASING THE NUCLEAR SHARE, IT IS FELT IT IS A VERY IMPORTANT THING.

IT'S LIKE IN INDIA, FOR EXAMPLE, YOU HAVE THE SAME SITUATION, BUT I THINK IT IS VERY POSITIVE.

BUT WE ARE SEEING MORE NUCLEAR HERE IN EUROPE MAYBE FOR SOME REASONS, MAYBE ENERGY SECURITY.

THE WAR IN UKRAINE IS MAKING COUNTRIES LOOK AT NUCLEAR ENERGY WITH RENEWED ENTHUSIASM.

WE SEE THAT THE UNITED STATES, WHERE IT'S AT A TIME WITH GREAT DIFFICULTY AND DIVIDE, IT ENJOYS BIPARTISAN SUPPORT NOW, NUCLEAR ENERGY, OR IN BIG COUNTRIES IN EUROPE, IN LATIN AMERICA, BRAZIL, ARGENTINA, SOUTH AFRICA, KOREA, JAPAN.

IN SPITE OF THE TRAUMATIC EXPERIENCE OF FUKUSHIMA DAIICHI ACCIDENT.

IT'S A PROMISING TIME FOR NUCLEAR, AND WE AS IAEA ARE PRESENT THERE TO MAKE SURE THAT IT HAPPENS UNDER THE BEST CONDITIONS.

>> BUT ONE OF THE CONCERNS ON CHINA IS NOT JUST THEIR ENERGY PROGRAM.

THEY'RE BUILDING AN ARSENAL OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS AT A PACE OF WHICH WE HAVEN'T SEEN IN DECADES.

WHAT CAN BE DONE TO STOP THAT?

AND JAKE SULLIVAN, OUR NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER, SAID HE WANTS NUCLEAR ARMS TALKS.

CAN YOU ALL PUSH FOR THAT?

>> WELL, I WOULD SAY THAT THE TWO THINGS ARE DIFFERENT, AND I WOULD ADVISE TO SEPARATE.

ONE THING IS THAT CHINA IS IN NUCLEAR ENERGY, PEACEFUL USES OF NUCLEAR ENERGY, AND SOME DIFFERENT IS WHAT IS HAPPENING IN TERMS OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND WHAT THEY ARE DOING IN THAT REGARD.

I THINK THE SECOND LOGIC IS A LOGIC THAT HAS TO DO MORE WITH THE GEOSTRATEGIC TENSIONS THAN ANYTHING ELSE.

AND THERE I THINK WHAT WE SAID BEFORE ABOUT MORE DIPLOMACY, MORE DIALOGUE, APPLIES.

>> YOU WERE ASKED RECENTLY WHAT KEEPS YOU UP AT NIGHT, AND YOUR ANSWER SURPRISED ME.

IT WASN'T ABOUT ANY OF THE NUCLEAR PLANTS OR THE ARSENALS.

IT WAS THAT PEOPLE IN AFRICA CAN'T GET RADIATION THERAPY.

EXPLAIN THAT TO ME, AND WHAT ARE YOU ALL DOING?

>> THE OTHER SIDE, VERY IMPORTANT SIDE, VERY IMPORTANT SIDE OF NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY IS EVERYTHING THAT CAN BE DONE TO IMPROVE THE LIVES AND LIVELIHOODS OF PEOPLE.

AND OF COURSE WE HAVE ALL BEEN TOUCHED IN OUR FAMILIES AND OUR LIVES BY CANCER.

AS YOU KNOW, RADIO THERAPY IS AN ESSENTIAL PART OF ANY THERAPY.

AND IN MANY COUNTRIES, THE AVAILABILITY OF RADIOTHERAPY IS ALMOST NONEXISTENT.

SO THE IAEA HAS LAUNCHED A PROGRAM CALLED RAISING HOPE WHERE WE ARE TRYING TO DO THAT, PUT NUCLEAR MEDICINE, RADIOTHERAPY AT THE DISPOSAL OF PEOPLE WHO NORMALLY DO NOT HAVE IT.

>> RAFAEL GROSSI, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> IT'S BEEN A GREAT PLEASURE.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH.