Amanpour and Company

>>> HELLO, EVERYONE, AND WELCOME TO "AMANPOUR AND COMPANY."

HERE'S WHAT'S COMING UP.

>> WELL, I EXPECT TO BE BOMBING BECAUSE I THINK THAT'S THE BETTER ATTITUDE TO GO IN WITH.

BUT WE'RE READY TO GO.

I MEAN, THE MILITARY IS RARING TO GO.

>> TRUMP SAYS HE EXPECTS TO BE BOMBING IF A DEAL IS NOT REACHED WITH IRAN.

AS A CEASE-FIRE DEADLINE LOOMS, CORRESPONDENT, NIC ROBERTSON JOINS US FROM ISLAMABAD, WHERE IT'S HOPED TALKS WILL TAKE PLACE.

>>> THEN OIL CHAOS.

WITH SUPPLIES CHOKED AND PRICES FLUCTUATING, I ASK AN ENERGY WHAT'S AT STAKE.

>>> AND THE U.S.

AGAIN EASES SANCTIONS ON PUTIN'S OIL.

JOURNALIST OLGA RUDENKO GIVES US THE VIEW FROM KYIV.

>>> ALSO AHEAD, THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION BEGINS REFUNDING TARIFFS AFTER THE SUPREME COURT STRUCK THEM DOWN.

FORMER U.S.

TRADE REPRESENTATIVE ROBERT LIGHTHIZER DEFENDS TRUMP'S TARIFF REGIME AND MAKES HIS CASE FOR A NEW TRADE ORDER.

>>> "AMANPOUR AND COMPANY" IS MADE POSSIBLE BY -- THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT.

JIM ATTWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS.

CANDACE KING WEIR.

THE SYLVIA A. AND SIMON B. POYTA PROGRAMMING ENDOWMENT TO FIGHT ANTI-SEMITISM.

THE STRAUS FAMILY FOUNDATION.

THE PETER G. PETERSON AND JOAN GANZ COONEY FUND.

CHARLES ROSENBLUM.

MONIQUE SCHOEN WARSHAW.

KOO AND PATRICIA YUEN, COMMITTED TO BRIDGING CULTURAL DIFFERENCES IN OUR COMMUNITIES.

BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG.

AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU.

THANK YOU.

>>> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, EVERYONE.

I'M BIANNA GOLODRYGA IN NEW YORK SITTING IN FOR CHRISTIANE "AMANPOUR."

THE CLOCK IS TICKING ON U.S.

PRESIDENT TRUMP'S IRAN CEASE-FIRE DEADLINE.

AND DESPITE EXPECTATIONS J.D.

VANCE WOULD TRAVEL TO PAKISTAN FOR ROUND TWO OF NEGOTIATIONS, HE REMAINS IN WASHINGTON, SHROUDING TALKS IN EVEN MORE CONFUSION.

THIS AS BOTH SIDES CONTINUE TO TRADE VERBAL BLOWS.

TRUMP SAYS HE'S HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO EXTEND THE PAUSE IN HOSTILITIES BEYOND WEDNESDAY EVENING, IF A DEAL IS NOT REACHED.

HERE HE IS SPEAKING THIS MORNING TO CNBC.

>> WELL, I EXPECT TO BE BOMBING BECAUSE I THINK THAT'S THE BETTER ATTITUDE TO GO IN WITH.

BUT, YOU KNOW, WE'RE READY TO GO.

I MEAN, THE MILITARY IS RARING TO GO.

>> SO THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN CRITICAL, AND IT'S UNCERTAIN IF IRAN WILL TURN UP AT THE TALKS EITHER.

TEHRAN'S TOP NEGOTIATOR AND SPEAKER OF THE PARLIAMENT DECLARING ON SOCIAL MEDIA THAT THEY DO NOT NEGOTIATE UNDER, QUOTE, THE SHADOW OF THREATS.

AND NOW THERE'S EVEN A NEW COMPLICATION.

IRAN THREATENING TO RETALIATE AFTER THE U.S.

MILITARY SEIZED AN IRANIAN SHIP TRYING TO REACH A BLOCKADED IRANIAN PORT, A KEY STICKING POINT OF THIS WAR.

AHEAD WE'LL HAVE MORE ON THE CHAOS IN AND AROUND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, BUT FIRST WITH SO MUCH MISTRUST AMID CONFUSION SURROUNDING THESE TALKS, LET'S BRING IN OUR CORRESPONDENT NIC ROBERTSON, WHO IS FOLLOWING ALL OF THE DEVELOPMENTS ON THE GROUND IN ISLAMABAD.

AND, NIC, THERE IS IS A LOT OF CONFUSION HERE.

SO MUCH UNKNOWN AS THE CLOCK IS TICKING DOWN TO THIS CEASE-FIRE DEADLINE EXPIRING.

VICE PRESIDENT VANCE IS STILL IN WASHINGTON, D.C.

THERE ARE REPORTS THAT JARED KUSHNER AND STEVE WHITKOFF ARE ALSO STILL IN THE KWOOUNS.UNITED STATES.

AND WE DON'T KNOW IF IRAN WILL SHOW UP FOR THESE NEGOTIATIONS EITHER AND WHO WILL BE DOING THAT NEGOTIATING ON THEIR PART.

SO IS THIS A SITUATION WHERE BEHIND THE SCENES YOU ARE HEARING THAT THERE IS AN EFFORT BEING MADE TO MOVE THIS FORWARD?

OR ARE WE REALLY AT A STALEMATE?

>> THERE'S A HUGE DIPLOMATIC EFFORT BEHIND THE SCENES INVOLVING THE MEDIAS HERE IN PAKISTAN MEETING WITH U.S.

OFFICIALS COMMUNICATING WITH IRANIAN OFFICIALS AS WELL.

AND IT'S NOT JUST HAPPENING BEHIND THE SCENES.

WE'VE SEEN REALLY IN THE PAST HOUR IT BREAK OUT INTO THE PUBLIC DOMAIN, MORE STATEMENTS COMING FROM THE FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESMAN IN IRAN SAYING THEY HAVE NOT YET MADE A DEFINITIVE DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO COME TO THE TALKS IN ISLAMABAD.

HE IS SAYING THAT THE AMERICANS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT AND HAVE CONTRADICTORY MESSAGES AS WELL AS TAKING MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAN, MEANING NOT JUST THE TANKER YOU MENTIONED BUT ANOTHER ONE EARLIER TODAY THAT WAS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN.

BOTSWANA FLAGGED BOARDED BY U.S.

MARINES THAT HAD BEEN CARRYING SANCTIONED IRANIAN OIL.

WHAT THE SPOKESMAN AT THE FOREIGN MINISTRY IN TEHRAN IS SAYING IS THEY WILL ENGAGE IN TALKS WHEN THEY ARE, AS HE SAID, RESULTS ORIENTED.

PAKISTAN HAS REALLY BEEN GOING ON THE DIPLOMATIC FRONT FOOT IN A WAY THAT NEGOTIATORS DON'T NORMALLY DO THAT.

THE FOREIGN MINISTER HERE HE MET WITH THE U.S.

FOREIGN AFFAIR, SPOKE ABOUT THE NEED TO SPEAK ABOUT CEASE-FIRE.

THE INFORMATION MINISTER HERE HAS WRITTEN A TWEET, HE SAYS A NUMBER OF THINGS -- RESTATING WHAT IRAN HAS ALREADY SAID NOW, THAT THERE'S NO DEFINITIVE RESPONSE FROM IRAN, BUT CALLING ON IRAN TO MAKE A CLEAR COMMITMENT BEFORE THE CEASE-FIRE EXPIRES.

PAKISTAN'S UNDERSTANDING OF THAT CEASE-FIRE IS IT EXPIRES IN THE NEXT SEVEN HOURS.

THE INFORMATION MINISTER ALSO SAYING THAT PAKISTAN'S DOING EVERYTHING THAT IT DIPLOMATICALLY CAN IN A SINCERE WAY TO TRY TO BRING THE SIDES TOGETHER.

EVERYONE HERE WAS EXPECTING IRAN TO ARRIVE.

THAT'S WHY J.D.

VANCE WAS GOING TO GET ON HIS PLANE EARLIER IN THE DAY BECAUSE IT WAS A REAL BELIEF THAT THE IRANIANS EVEN THOUGH THEY DIDN'T SAY IT PUBLICLY WERE ABSOLUTELY GOING TO COME.

BUT AS YOU SAY, ALL OF THAT'S UP IN THE AIR NOW.

>> YEAH, AND THE PRESIDENT SAYING HE IS NOT LIKELY TO EXTEND THE CEASE-FIRE, THAT BOMBS WOULD START FALLING SHORTLY, AND THAT HE HAS ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD.

AND, NIC, THIS IS ALL HAPPENING IN A CITY ONCE AGAIN THAT IS SUPPOSED TO HOST ANOTHER HIGH-LEVEL, HIGH-STAKES NEGOTIATION AND PEACE TALKS WITH THE VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, EVEN POTENTIALLY JUST GETTING ALL OF THAT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SECURITY COMING AT A TIME WHEN THE COUNTRY IS ALSO DEALING WITH THE IMPACT OF HIGH GAS AND OIL PRICES.

HOW IS THAT PLAYING OUT LOCALLY?

>> YEAH, AND THIS IS A CITY IN A WAY THAT'S CAUGHT IN HOLD, IF YOU WILL.

YOU KNOW, THE POPULATION HERE INCREDIBLY EXCITED AND HAPPY TO SEE THEIR COUNTRY IN THE GLOBAL SPOTLIGHT FOR POSITIVE REASONS, NOT FOR EXPLOSIONS OR, YOU KNOW, A DECADE OR SO BACK HOSTING OSAMA BIN LADEN, OR, YOU KNOW, PLAYING OFF ONE SIDE AGAINST EACH OTHER IN THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN.

THIS IS WHAT THEY WERE ACCUSED ON, THE LACK OF TRUST.

THIS IS PAKISTAN IN A POSITIVE SPOTLIGHT, SO PEOPLE HERE REALLY GRIPPED BY THAT, BUT AT THE SAME TIME THEY'RE LOCKED IN.

THEY'RE LOCKED IN BECAUSE ROADS ARE CUT.

THEY CAN'T USE THE MAIN AVENUES HERE.

THE SECURE RED ZONE IS VERY SECURE.

WE'VE BEEN OUT AROUND THE CITY.

YOU HAVE TO KIND OF GO DOWN BACK STREETS TO GET AROUND.

BUSES CAN'T COME INTO THE CITY FROM OTHER CITIES IN THE COUNTRY.

YOU KNOW, CAFES, RESTAURANTS HERE, THEIR CLIENTELE CAN'T GET TO THEM.

THEY'RE SHUTTERING THEIR KITCHENS, SO THERE'S A RIPPLE OUT EFFECT.

THERE'S THE EXCITEMENT BUT THERE'S ALSO THE REALITY HOW LONG CAN YOU KEEP A CITY ON LOCK DOWN?

HOW LONG CAN YOU KEEP ITS MAJOR HOTELS EMPTY?

IN THE ANTICIPATION THAT YOU'RE GOING TO TRY TO DO SOMETHING HUGELY HISTORIC, THAT EVERYONE WANTS TO SEE HAPPEN HERE, AND THAT'S THE SITUATION ISLAMABAD FINDS ITSELF IN.

THAT HOPE IS STILL THERE, AND THE DESIRE TO MAKE THIS STILL WORK IS STILL THERE, BUT THIS IS A CITY THAT'S JUST SORT OF PUT ON HOLD.

>> NO DOUBT.

AND IT IS A COUNTRY WHO'S STANDING IN THE UNITED STATES ESPECIALLY AFTER TRUMP'S SECOND INAUGURATION AND VICTORY HAS ONLY BEEN ELEVATED.

HE HAS PRAISED THE LEADERSHIP THERE IN PAKISTAN QUITE FREQUENTLY.

AND THE FACT THAT THIS IS A TRUSTED INTERMEDIARY FOR BOTH COUNTRIES IS REALLY NOTABLE HERE.

NIC ROBERTSON, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THE UPDATE.

>>> WELL, NOW FROM UNCERTAINTY AT THE NEGOTIATING TABLE TO CHAOS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

TEHRAN SAYS THAT IT HAS NOW RETURNED TO A, QUOTE, WARTIME FOOTING IN THE CRITICAL WATERWAY, COMPLETELY CLOSING IT OFF TO ALL VESSELS WITHOUT IRANIAN AUTHORIZATION.

MEANTIME, THE U.S.

IS BLOCKADING IRANIAN PORTS BOTH INSIDE AND OUTSIDE OF THE STRAIT.

20% OF GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY COMES THROUGH THE KEY PASSAGE, SO ALL OF THE DISRUPTION AND THE KNOCKON EFFECTS ARE RISING.

FUEL COSTS IS HAVING A VERY REAL IMPACT ON ORDINARY PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD.

ENERGY EXPERT MATT SMITH JOINS ME NOW TO EXPLAIN THIS COMPLEX CRISIS AND ITS GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS.

MATT, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.

SO LET'S JUST TALK ABOUT THE FACT THAT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ FOR ALL-PURPOSES HAS BEEN CLOSED FOR BUSINESS FOR A NUMBER OF WEEKS NOW.

WELL OVER A MONTH.

ARE YOU SURPRISED, THEN, GIVEN THAT AND GIVEN ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTY AND SOME OF THE HEATED RHETORIC COMING FROM BOTH SIDES HERE, THAT PRICES AREN'T EVEN HIGHER THAN THEY ARE NOW?

>> FRANKLY, YES.

IT IS CONCERNING, RIGHT, BECAUSE WHAT THAT SUGGESTS IS THERE'S A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF COMPLACENCY.

THE CHALLENGE THAT IS HAPPENING, AS YOU MENTIONED, THE VOLUMES WE SEE MOVING OUT OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ TYPICALLY, YOU KNOW, IT'S 15 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL A DAY AND PREDOMINANTLY THAT IS MOVING INTO ASIA.

BUT ONCE IT GETS THERE IT IS REFINED INTO PRODUCTS WHETHER THAT IS GASOLINE, DIESEL.

SO WE'RE NOT SEEING THOSE ARRIVE AND SO THOSE PRODUCTS ARE NOT BEING PRODUCED.

THE NEXT DOMINO TO FALL IS ESSENTIALLY THE OIL DRYING UP BEING IMPORTED TO THESE COUNTRIES AND ALSO RESTRICTIONS AND RATIONALIZATIONS OF THESE FUELS.

YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT ISLAMABAD THEREABOUT, BUT IN PAKISTAN, AND YOU HAVE ELSEWHERE IN ASIA IN TERMS OF THAILAND, VIETNAM.

THE LIST GOES ON ON AND ON.

THIS IS HUGELY PROBLEMATIC, AND IT'S GOING TO SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE WORLD HERE THE LONGER THAT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ REMAINS CLOSED.

>> AND I LOOK BACK TO THE SHOCKING SPIKE IN OIL PRICES FOLLOWING RUSSIA'S LARGER INVASION OF UKRAINE IN FEBRUARY 2022, AND THEY EXCEEDED THE HEIGHT OF PRICES FOLLOWING THE START OF THIS WAR WITH IRAN.

AND YET WHEN YOU LOOK TO WHAT LESSONS HAVE BEEN LEARNED, WHAT MEASURES HAVE BEEN TAKEN IN THE INTERIM, PERHAPS BACK STOPPING MORE -- MORE SUPPLYING OF OIL AND STOCKPILING THAT HASN'T HAPPENED.

ALTERNATIVE SHIPPING LANES HAVE NOT BEEN CREATED.

SO DO YOU THINK IT WAS THAT INITIAL SHOCK VALUE FROM THE RUSSIAN INVASION THAT IN SOME SENSE KEPT PRICES THUS FAR AT LEAST MORE MEASURED?

>> I THINK IT'S JUST SIMPLY SOMEWHAT UNFATHOMABLE, RIGHT?

WE DO SEE IN PHYSICAL PRICES THEM BEING THAT MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT WE'RE SEEING ON THOSE FINANCIAL PRICES, YOU KNOW, THOSE INDEX PRICES -- THE BRENTS AND THE WTIs, THOSE BENCHMARKS.

THE REALITY IS IT'S GOING TO HAVE AN IMPACT OVER THE COMING MONTHS HERE AND WE'RE NOT QUITE FEELING THAT JUST YET.

AT THE SAME TIME THERE'S AN ELEMENT OF DEMAND INSTRUCTION FROM THINGS.

ULTIMATELY, IT FEELS VERY MUCH THE MARKET IS MISPRICING THIS.

>> I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT WHAT WE HEARD FROM THE ENERGY SECRETARY OVER THE WEEKEND IN DEFENDING ANOTHER ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL AND CABINET SECRETARY, AND THAT IS TREASURY SECRETARYBESCENT REVERSING HIS WORDS FROM JUST A FEW WORDS PRIOR THAT THE WAIVER EXTENDED FOR RUSSIAN OIL SANCTIONS WOULD NOT HAPPEN.

AND YET THEY WERE EXTENDED JUST A COUPLE OF DAYS LATER.

WHEN ASKED ABOUT WHY THAT REVERSAL TOOK PLACE, HERE'S WHAT SECRETARY WRIGHT SAID.

>> G20 CONFERENCE WAS HERE.

WE HAD BANKERS FROM AROUND THE WORLD BASICALLY MAKING PLEAS.

HEY, WE WANT TO KEEP ENERGY PRICES DOWN FOR US.

JUST HELP FOR US -- JUST HELP US BE CONSTRUCTIVE.

ALL THAT RUSSIAN OIL IT GOES TO CHINA ANYWAY.

ALL WE'RE DOING IS TEMPORARILY ALLOWING IT TO FLOW INSTEAD OF IT ALL TO CHINA, JUST FLOW INTO OTHER ASIAN REFINERIES.

IT'S TO LOWER THE PRICE OF ENERGY IN ASIA AND IN EUROPE.

>> AND HE WENT ONTO SAY THAT THIS WAIVER EXTENSION WAS ONLY TEMPORARY, THAT SANCTIONS WOULD BE PUT BACK IN PLACE.

BUT FROM WHAT YOU HEARD FROM HIM, THAT EXPLANATION IS IT A VALID ONE?

AND IS IT KEEPING OIL PRICES LOWER?

>> I THINK THE MAIN REASON FOR DOING THIS IS SIMPLY BECAUSE YOU HAVE INDIA THAT SITS VERY -- IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MIDDLE EAST THERE IMPORT ABOUT 5 MILLION BARRELS A DAY.

ABOUT HALF OF THAT COMES FROM THE MIDDLE EAST.

THOSE FLOWS HAVE ESSENTIALLY BEING STOPPED, RIGHT, BECAUSE OF THE CLOSURE OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HERE.

INDIA IS A LARGE EXPORTER OF CLEAN PRODUCTS AS WELL, AND SO BY GRANTING THIS WAIVER FOR THE RUSSIAN CRUDE TO BE ABLE TO STILL GO INTO INDIA, IT MEANS THAT THEY'RE ABLE TO KEEP THINGS WORKING AT LEAST TO A DECENT EXTENT THERE.

SO BY -- WHAT THEY'RE STILL NOT ABLE TO GET THE 5 MILLION BARRELS A DAY THAT THEY NEED, THEY ARE ABLE TO SUBSTITUTE SOME OF THE LAST OF THOSE MIDDLE EAST BARRELS WITH THAT RUSSIAN CRUDE.

AND SO FROM THAT PERSPECTIVE, IT MAKES SOME SENSE THERE.

WE'RE NOT SEEING TOO MANY OF THOSE OTHER BARRELS FLOWING ELSEWHERE FROM RUSSIA SIMPLY BECAUSE INDIA IS TRYING TO GET ITS HANDS ON AS MUCH AS IT CAN DO THERE.

SO MAYBE IT'S HELPING PRICES A LITTLE BIT AND KIND OF KEEPING THEM IN CHECK, BUT ULTIMATELY THIS IS BAILING OUT INDIA, WHO'D BE IN MASSIVE TROUBLE IF IT DIDN'T HAVE THIS OLIVE BRANCH.

>> SO THERE'S SOME CREDENCE THERE TO HIM SAYING WE WERE ASKED BY SOME G HP 20 COUNTRIES, AND WE'RE BASICALLY DOING THEM A SOLID?

>> YEAH, YEAH.

>> I SPOKE WITH NOTED ECONOMIST ROBIN BROOKS FRIDAY ON MY PROGRAM, HE ARGUED THE U.S.

BLOCKADE, WHICH HE'D BEEN ADVOCATING FOR, HAD SUCCESSFULLY CHOKED IRAN FINANCIALLY, AND IT IS JUST WEEKS AWAY NOW FROM COMPLETELY RUNNING OUT OF ROOM TO STORE ITS UNSOLD OIL.

FROM A PRODUCTION STANDPOINT, HOW CLOSE ARE THEY TO BEING FORCED TO SHUTDOWN THEIR WELLS?

AND DO YOU THINK THAT'S LEVERAGE ENOUGH FROM THE UNITED STATES TO GET IRAN INTO A POSITION OF OPENING UP THE STRAIT AND RETURNING BACK TO THE TALKS?

>> WELL, IN TERMS OF WHAT WE'RE SEEING WITH IRAN, WE'VE ALREADY SEEN PRODUCTION DROP ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF A MILLION BARRELS PER DAY THERE, WE BELIEVE.

SO IN PART THAT IS TO DO WITH LOWER DEMAND IN THE COUNTRY DURING THIS CONFLICT.

IT ALSO RELATES TO THE SOUTH PASS FIELD, THAT'S THAT NATURAL GAS FIELD THERE STRUCK A FEW WEEKS AGO BY ISRAEL AND THE U.S.

AND SO THAT HAS BROUGHT THAT PRODUCTION DOWN.

BUT ULTIMATELY YOUR POINT HERE WITH THE U.S.

BLOCKADE IS MEANING THAT WHILE WE COULD BE SEEING A FEW OF THOSE TANKERS PASSING THROUGH, IN THEORY THAT IS BLOCKING OFF THOSE IRANIAN BARRELS HITTING THE OPEN MARKET.

AND SO FROM THAT PERSPECTIVE, WE SHOULD BE SEEING A SLOWING IN THESE EXPORT LOADINGS AND THINGS STARTING TO GRIND TO A HALT.

WITH YOUR POINT WITH THE ONSHORE STORAGE THERE WE THINK IT'S ABOUT THREE WEEKS, SOMETHING LIKE THAT UNTIL THEY KIND OF GET HITTING TANK TOPS THERE.

AND SO, YES, IT WILL PUT SOME PRESSURE ON IRAN HERE.

BUT THE CHALLENGE IS THAT THAT'S STILL GOT A NUMBER OF WEEKS TO GO IF THE U.S.

GETS IN A SITUATION WHERE IT LOOKS TO DRAW BOMBS INSTEAD AND IT LOOKS TO ESCALATE.

YOU'RE GOING TO SEE THE SAME THING FROM THE IRANIANS AND SO THAT'S THE BIG CONCERN HERE THAT WE JUST SEE THIS TIT FOR TAT AND TIT FOR TAT AND THINGS JUST GET EVEN WORSE.

>> YOU MENTION THE FACT THAT INDIA REALLY IS IN A BIND HERE.

CHINA ALSO POTENTIALLY, INCREASINGLY SO AS THIS WAR PROLONGS.

MOST OF THE OIL THAT LEAVES IRAN DOES HEAD TO CHINA.

THEY HAVE MASSIVE STOCKPILES, BUT I WOULD IMAGINE EVEN XI JINPING AT THIS POINT IS GETTING A BIT NERVOUS ABOUT HOW LONG THIS WAR IS DRAGGING ON FOR, ESPECIALLY NOW THAT THE STRAIT HAS BEEN CLOSED.

AND HE IS ALSO, ACCORDING TO AN EXPERT WHO HAS BEEN FOLLOWING HIS NOW RECENT CALLS FOR HOR MUSE TO BE REOPENED -- IS EXPLAINING IT THIS WAY.

HE SAYS BEIJING IS DEFINITELY SIGNALING SUBTLY YET IMPORTANTLY TO HAWKS IN TEHRAN THAT FURTHER UNBRIDLED ESCALATION WILL NOT BE TOLERATED.

HOW MUCH LEVERAGE DOES CHINA HAVE OVER IRAN AT THIS POINT TO SETTLE THIS?

>> IT HAS A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF INFLUENCE THERE.

TO YOUR POINT IN TERM OF THOSE FLOWS, IT'S NOT JUST THE IRANIAN FLOWS BUT THE MIDDLE EAST FLOW IN GENERAL.

THAT CRUDE IS ABOUT 4 MILLION BARRELS A DAY.

IRAN ON TOP OF THAT IT TAKES AROUND 5.

SO CHINA IS HUGELY RELIANT UPON THE MIDDLE EAST.

YES, THEY HAVE STOCKPILES WELL OVER 1.2 MILLION BARRELS RIGHT NOW, BUT WE ARE SEEING THEIR REFINERIES ARE REALLY STARTING TO DIAL BACK BECAUSE OF THIS LACK OF CRUDE THAT'S ARRIVING.

WE'RE SEEING THEM PUTTING EXPORT BANS IN PLACE ON THEIR PRODUCTS AS WELL, THESE PROTECTIONIST MEASURES.

AND SO BY ALL MEANS THEY ARE FEELING THE PAIN OF THE HALTING OF THESE FLOWS.

AND SO FROM THAT PERSPECTIVE, YOU WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BE PUTTING PRESSURE ON IRAN TO TRY AND GET THINGS MOVING HERE.

>> WE'RE SEEING PRODUCERS LIKE SAUDI ARABIA, UAE REALLY LEANING NOW ON PIPELINE ALTERNATIVES TO BYPASS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

IS THIS CRISIS FINALLY THE CATALYST TO GETTING THESE TYPES OF OPERATIONS AND ALTERNATIVE ROUTES IN PLACE, PERHAPS WHERE WE DIDN'T SEE FOLLOWING RUSSIA'S LARGER SCALE INVASION OF UKRAINE?

>> YOU WOULD THINK SO GIVEN THAT WHILE THESE TWO PIPELINES THAT YOU HAVE ONE FOR UAE AND ONE FOR SAUDI THERE IS ABLE TO REROUTE CRUDE.

IT'S NOT ABLE TO REROUTE ALL OF THOSE BARRELS, RIGHT, SO SAUDI IS ONLY GOING TO BE ABLE TO PUSH MAYBE UNDER 4 MILLION BARRELS A DAY ACROSS TO THE RED SEA AND EXPORT THEM FROM THERE, WHEREAS PREVIOUSLY IT WAS EXPORTING 6 MILLION BARRELS A DAY OUT OF THE MIDEAST GULF THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ THERE.

SO IT IS GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE MANY MORE OF THESE PIPELINES TO BE PUT IN PLACE TO REALLY CIRCUMVENT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

THAT TAKES TIME, IT TAKES INVESTMENT.

THERE'S ALSO NOT THE GUARANTEE THESE PIPELINES WON'T BE ATTACKED OR FUTURE PIPELINES THAT ARE BUILT COULD BE SECURE, YOU KNOW, SO THAT IS THE CHALLENGE GOING FORWARD HERE.

WHEN YOU HAVE SUCH A CHOKE POINT OR SUCH A SOURCE FOR THE WORLD'S OIL LEAVING FROM THIS ONE PLACE, IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO SECURE IT, WHETHER IT'S LEAVING VIA THE STRAIT OR WHETHER IT'S FROM PIPELINES.

>> AND THE IMF, SO THIS IS SOMETHING YOU NOTED EARLIER, AND EVEN MY CONVERSATION WITH NIC IN OUR PREVIOUS SEGMENT ABOUT THE IMPACT, THE ASYMMETRIC IMPACT THAT THIS IS HAVING ON PARTICULARLY LOWER INCOME COUNTRIES THAT ARE SO DEPENDENT ON OIL AND FERTILIZER AND OTHER ENERGY SOURCES FROM THIS REGION.

THE IMF ISSUED A STARK WARNING SAYING THEY WOULD BEAR THE BRUNT AND THE BURDEN OF THIS WAR AS IT CONTINUES.

AND EVEN RICH NATIONS, EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, AS YOU NOTED, EVERYONE WILL BE AFFECTED, AND THEY'RE NOT IMMUNE.

EVEN AMERICA, WHICH HAS A LOT OF SUPPLY, STILL HAS TO WITHSTAND HIGHER PRICES AT THE PUMP.

I'M JUST WONDERING GIVEN THE DELUGE OF EVERY DAY TWEETS, POSTS, STATEMENTMENTS AND WE'RE SEEING HUGE SPIKES UP AND DOWN OF WHAT THEY MEAN, HOW ARE YOU AT KPLER ASSESSING IT ALL AND GIVING ADVICE TO YOUR CLIENTS?

>> WE'RE FORTUNATE IN THAT WE HAVE THE DATA, RIGHT, AND SO WE'RE LOOKING AT THAT.

THAT'S PROBLEMATIC AND SCARY AT THE SAME TIME, TOO, BECAUSE WE CAN SEE THESE CERTAIN COUNTRIES ARE NOT GETTING THE CRUDE THAT THEY NEED.

THEY'RE DIALING BACK ON THEIR REFINERY RUNS.

THEY'RE NOT EXPORTING THE JET THAT IS NEEDED REGIONALLY, AND SO IT'S JUST A MATTER OF TIME WE'RE FOLLOWING THOSE DOMINOS FALLING.

AND SO WE CAN SEE THE TIME FRAMES IT'S GOING TO BE WEEKS RATHER THAN MONTHS WHEN YOU'RE GOING TO SEE CERTAIN FUEL RESTRICTIONS BEING APPLIED BOTH AT THE PUMPS BUT ALSO IN TERMS OF FLIGHTS.

THAT'S HAPPENING IN ASIA.

THAT'S GOING TO HAVE A KNOCK ON EFFECT TO THE U.S.

WEST COAST.

YOU KNOW, EUROPE HERE IS BEING STARVED OF JET FUEL.

IT'S HAVING TO FIND IT FROM ELSEWHERE, AND SO WE'RE STARTING TO SEE NOT THE SYSTEM BREAKING BUT REALLY THESE ANOMALOUS FLOWS THAT ARE POPPING UP SIMPLY BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, AUSTRALIA CAN'T FIND GASOLINE OR DIESEL IN ASIA, AND SO IT'S COMING TO THE U.S.

TO BUY IT.

AND YOU'RE SEEING ALL MANNER OF THOSE NEW ROUTES OPENING UP, AND THAT'S JUST EXEMPLIFYING THE STRAIN IN THE SYSTEM HERE.

AND SO, UNFORTUNATELY, WE'RE SEEING THAT PLAY OUT IN REALTIME AND KNOW THESE SUPPLY CRUNCHES ARE COMING IN WEEKS NOT MONTHS.

>> YEAH, IT REMINDS ME SO MUCH OF THE EARLY MONTHS OF THE COVID PANDEMIC.

AND YET AS IT RELATES TO THIS WAR, THE MARKETS THUS FAR SEEM TO BE ACTING AND REACTING RATHER COMPLACENTALLY, AS PEOPLE LIKE YOU ARE OBSERVING THE DATA IN REALTIME SHOWING THAT THE ALARM BELLS ARE RINGING ALL OVER THE WORLD.

MATT SMITH, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US AND BREAKING THIS DOWN FOR US.

APPRECIATE IT.

>> THANK YOU.

>>> NOW, WITH GLOBAL ATTENTION ON THE MIDDLE EAST, SOME SAY RUSSIA IS CAPITALIZING ON THIS MOMENT.

AS WE'VE DISCUSSED, THE WORLD'S OIL IS CAUGHT IN A CHOKE HOLD IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, AND NOW UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY IS CONDEMNING THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S DECISION TO EXTEND WAIVERS TO RUSSIA, ALLOWING IT TO SELL OIL DESPITE WESTERN SANCTIONS.

WHILE THE U.S.

ARGUES THIS IS TO EASE THE ENERGY SUPPLY CRUNCH SPARKED BY THE IRAN CONFLICT, ZELENSKYY SAYS THE MONEY GOES DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE KREMLIN'S WAR IN UKRAINE.

AND ON THE GROUND, KYIV'S FIGHT FOR SURVIVAL IS URGENT AND REAL.

ZELENSKYY SAYS THAT IN THE LAST WEEK ALONE RUSSIA HAS LAUNCHED MORE THAN 2,300 ATTACK DRONES.

THAT INCLUDES A DEVASTATING WAVE OF STRIKES THAT KILLED 18 PEOPLE, THE DEADLIEST BARRAGE, THE COUNTRY HAS SEEN IN MONTHS.

TO DISCUSS ALL THIS LET'S BRING IN OLGA RUDENKO, THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF THE KYIV INDEPENDENT.

OLGA, WELCOME BACK TO THE PROGRAM.

I WANT TO PICK UP THERE ON WHAT YOU AND OTHERS HAVE NOTED.

YOU AND RECENTLY WITH "THE NEW YORKER" DAVID REMNICK SAID IT IS A LIFELINE FOR VLADIMIR PUTIN BECAUSE NOT ONLY IS ATTENTION BEING DIVERTED BUT RESOURCES AND WEAPONS ARE AS WELL.

CAN YOU TALK ABOUT HOW IT'S IMPACTING NOT ONLY MORALE BUT WHAT'S HAPPENING ON THE FRONT LINES IN THE BATTLEFIELD?

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

YES, YOU ARE RIGHT ABSOLUTELY THAT RUSSIA IS CAPITALIZING, UNFORTUNATELY, ON THIS WAR AND ON THE DESTRUCTION THAT IT IS PROVIDING.

IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT THE BEHAVIOR ON THE OIL SANCTIONS, IT IS HELPING RUSSIA ENORMOUSLY, BUT IT IS ALSO JUST THE FOCUS THAT IS SHIFTING AWAY FROM UKRAINE.

AND THE LONGER IT TAKES PLACE, THE WORSE IT IS OBVIOUSLY FOR UKRAINE.

AND TO THE LIMITATIONS STOPPED AS YOU KNOW WHEN THE IRAN WAR STARTED.

WHAT IS UNFORTUNATE THIS ARRIVED AT A VERY GOOD MOMENT FOR RUSSIA BECAUSE THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY WAS STARTING FINALLY TO FEEL THE STRAIN OF THE YEARS OF WAR.

AND NOW THIS SITUATION WITH THE OIL SANCTIONS BEING TEMPORARILY LIFTED IS HELPING RUSSIA ENORMOUSLY.

AND IT IS FELT ON THE GROUND BECAUSE THE -- THE NUMBERS -- NOT JUST THE NUMBERS WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT HOW MUCH RUSSIA'S BENEFITTING FROM THE OIL PRICES, FOR EXAMPLE, WHAT EVEN IN CONSERVATIVE ASSESSMENTS WHAT RUSSIA MAKES DAILY FROM THIS WAIVER CAN FUND A MASS DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACK ON A CITY LIKE KYIV, ON WHERE I'M THINKING RIGHT NOW.

SO IT IS VERY REAL FOR US ON THE GROUND.

>> RIGHT.

AND PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY RESPONDED TO THE EXTENDED SANCTIONS RELIEF ON RUSSIAN OIL BY SAYING THIS IS RUSSIA PLAYING THE AMERICANS ONCE AGAIN.

AND THEN HE WENT ONTO SAY THAT WASHINGTON BY DOING THIS IS CHOOSING CHEAPER GAS, ESSENTIALLY, THAN PUTTING MORE PRESSURE ON RUSSIA TO END THIS WAR.

BUT WHAT DO YOU SAY TO WHAT, YOU KNOW, OUR PREVIOUS GUEST HAS NOTED AND THE ADMINISTRATION IS SAYING, THAT THEY'RE DOING THIS BECAUSE THEY'RE GETTING PRESSURE FROM OTHER COUNTRIES INCLUDING INDIA BECAUSE THEY ARE FEELING THE REAL IMPACT OF THE SPIKE IN PRICES AT HOME?

>> I MEAN, I'M BY NO MEANS AN EXPERT IN OIL PRICES, BUT SOMETHING IS VERY CLEAR TO ME MAYBE BECAUSE I'M SITTING HERE IN KYIV IS THAT ANYTHING THAT HELPS RUSSIA, EVEN IF IT HELPS OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE SHORT TERM, EVEN IF IT REMOVES SOME PRESSURE FOR SOMEBODY, IT IS A SHORTSIGHTED DECISION.

BECAUSE IN THE LONG RUN THE U.S.

IS GOING TO SPEND MORE MONEY ON HELPING RUYIEN HELPING UKRAINE FIGHT RUSSIA, AND ESSENTIALLY IN THE LONGER TERM HELPING ITS ALLIES FIGHT RUSSIA IF RUSSIA IS NOT STOPPED NOW.

AND THE WAY TO FIGHT RUSSIA IS BOLSTER THE FRONT LINES AND ALSO PUT ECONOMIC PRESSURE AND BE FIRM ON SANCTIONS BECAUSE SANCTIONS ARE WORKING.

SO ANY DECISION THAT HELPS RUSSIA NOW IS SHORTSIGHTED IRREGARDLESS OF ANY ARGUMENTS THAT ARE MADE.

>> AND YET IT IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO SEE HOW UKRAINE HAS AGGRESSIVELY BEEN COURTING GULF COUNTRIES, IN PARTICULAR SAUDI ARABIA, THE UAE, QATAR, BUT BY SHARING THEIR INNOVATIVE DRONE TECHNOLOGY THAT HAS HELPED THEM ON THE BATTLEFIELD SUCH AS RUSSIA, IS THIS AN EXAMPLE PERHAPS UKRAINE CAN SHOW THE WORLD THEY CAN BYPASS U.S.

TECHNOLOGY ESPECIALLY IN THIS SPHERE FOR OTHER COUNTRIES?

>> SO THIS IS A VERY INTERESTING ASPECT FOR UKRAINE BECAUSE AS MUCH AS THIS CONFLICT IS NOT A GOOD THING FOR UKRAINE BECAUSE IT DISRUPTS THE GLOBAL AUDIENCE AND THE EYES ON THAT ON UKRAINE.

BUT AT THE SAME TIME IT ALSO PUTS A SPOTLIGHT ON UKRAINE'S DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES AND UKRAINE'S OWN DEFENSE PRODUCTION BECAUSE THIS CONFLICT HAS BEEN THE WORLD'S AWAKENING TO THE FACT THAT IRANIAN DRONES ARE.

AND THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT UKRAINE HAS BEEN DEALING WITH AND WHAT UKRAINE HAS LEARNED TO FIGHT AND TO DEFEND ITSELF AGAINST IN THE PAST FOUR YEARS.

BECAUSE IN THE FIRST YEAR OF THE FULL-SCALE WAR IRAN GAVE TECHNOLOGY TO RUSSIA AND RUSSIA HAS BEEN MAZ PRODUCING DRONES AND HITTING UKRAINE WITH IT.

AND UKRAINE HAS BEEN HAVING TO DEFEND ITSELF.

WHAT UKRAINE HAS BEEN HAVING TO DO IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS PRESENT ITSELF AS A COUNTRY THAT HAS SOLUTIONS FOR THIS.

THIS IS WHAT ZELENSKYY'S TOUR IN THE MIDDLE EAST WAS ABOUT, TO PRESENT A COUNTRY THAT IS NOT ASKING FOR HELP, IT HAS SOLUTIONS AND INCENTIVES FOR THEM.

>> WHAT ARE THE RAMIFICATIONS FOR UKRAINE?

HOW FAST CAN UKRAINE NOT ONLY PROVIDE THE TECHNOLOGY BUT REALLY START TO SCALE THE DRONES THAT ARE NEEDED YESTERDAY, TO BE QUITE HONEST, IN SO MANY COUNTRIES BUT IN PARTICULAR THIS REGION AS WE'VE SEEN HOW EFFECTIVE IRAN HAS BEEN IN UTILIZING THEM TO ATTACK THEIR NEIGHBORS?

>> YOU KNOW, UKRAINE'S DRONE INDUSTRY AND DEFENSE INDUSTRY IS SOMETHING THAT IS SO BOOMING RIGHT NOW AND SO HOT.

AND WE'RE TALKING NOT ABOUT STATE COMPANIES.

WE'RE TALKING ABOUT -- WE'RE TALKING ABOUT -- >> PRIVATE COMPANIES?

>> SO MANY PRIVATE PRODUCERS THAT ARE DOING THIS, AND, YEAH, I LOST THE SOUND.

>> CAN YOU HEAR ME, OLGA?

WE MAY HAVE LOST OUR CONNECTION WITH OLGA.

APOLOGIES FOR THAT.

MEANTIME, $166 BILLION.

THAT IS THE SUM THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS BEEN ORDERED TO REFUND THE U.S.

COMPANIES THAT PAY TARIFFS.

TWO MONTHS AFTER THE SUPREME COURT STRUCK DOWN DONALD TRUMP'S IMPORT TAXES.

AS OF MONDAY CERTAIN BUSINESSES CAN APPLY FOR THESE REIMBURSEMENTS THROUGH AN ONLINE PORTAL.

FORMER U.S.

TRADE REPRESENTATIVE ROBERT LIGHTHIZER DCHDS THE PRESIDENT'S TARIFF REGIME ARGUING THAT THE FREE TRADE SYSTEM HAS FAILED THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, AND HE JOINS WALTER ISAACSON TO DISCUSS.

>> THANK YOU, BIANNA, AND AMBASSADOR ROBERT LIGHTHIZER.

WELCOME BACK TO THE SHOW.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME, WALTER.

>> YOU HAVE A PRETTY POWERFUL PIECE IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS NOW THAT ATTACKS THE FREE TRADE SYSTEM.

YOU ALMOST CALL IT A FREE TRADE ORTHODOXY THAT FOR 80 YEARS GREW AFTER WORLD WAR II.

BUT IT SEEMS TO BE THAT FREE TRADE SYSTEM INCREASED GLOBAL WEALTH, BROUGHT PEOPLE OUT OF POVERTY, EVEN HELPED THE UNITED STATES DOLLAR STAY IN THE LEAD.

TELL ME WHAT WAS WRONG WITH THAT FREE TRADE ORDER?

SO, FIRST OF ALL, WALTER, I WOULD SUGGEST AFTER WORLD WAR II AND FOR A PERIOD OF DECADES WHAT WE WOULD CALL SORT OF THE CURRENT TRADE REGIME HAD A VARIETY OF SUCCESSES.

IT DID HELP END AS YOU SUGGEST THE COLD WAR.

IT DID RAISE COUNTRIES -- SOME COUNTRY'S CITIZENS OUT OF POVERTY.

BUT OVER A PERIOD OF TIME IT SORT OF EVOLVED INTO SOMETHING QUITE DIFFERENT.

THE NOTION OF THE TRADING SYSTEM WAS THAT A COUNTRY EXPORTS IN ORDER TO IMPORT.

AND WHEN YOU DO THAT, YOU IMPORT WHAT YOU MAKE SORT OF SECOND BASE AND EXPORT WHAT YOU MAKE BEST.

AND WHEN YOU DO THAT, YOU MAKE YOUR CITIZENS BETTER OFF, AND YOU MAKE THE OTHER CITIZENS OF THE COUNTRY THAT'S EXPORTING TO YOU BETTER OFF.

BUT OVER A PERIOD OF TIME AN AWFUL LOT OF COUNTRIES CONCLUDED THAT THEY WERE A LOT BETTER OFF RUNNING UP LARGE TRADE SURPLUSES, AND WE DEVELOPED THESE HUGE IMBALANCES, AND IT REALLY HAD VERY LITTLE TO DO WITH ECONOMICS.

WHAT THEY HAD TO DO WITH WAS A VERY AGGRESSIVE INDUSTRIAL POLICIES.

AND WE SAW A VARIETY OF COUNTRIES DO THIS.

SO THE SYSTEM -- THE SYSTEM DID DO WELL AFTER A PERIOD OF TIME, CERTAINLY BY THE '80s COUNTRIES WERE REALIZING AND IN THE CASE OF JAPAN PROBABLY, EVEN IN THE LATE 60s, THAT THEY WERE FAR BETTER OFF WITH A VERY AGGRESSIVE INDUSTRIAL POLICY RATHER THAN THIS NOTION OF EXPORTING IN ORDER TO IMPORT.

SO YOU ENDED UP WITH HUGE IMBALANCES, AND IN THE CASE OF THE UNITED STATES -- LET ME JUST GO THROUGH THE INDICTMENT REAL QUICKLY.

FIRST OF ALL, WE'RE RUNNING UP THESE HUGE, HUGE TRADE DEFICITS.

I WOULD SAY THE REALISTIC NUMBER IS SORT OF NORTH OF $1.2 TRILLION A YEAR FOR THE UNITED STATES.

AND SOME WOULD SAY, WELL, WHO CARES?

YOU KNOW, MY REACTION IS IT DOESN'T MATTER IF YOU DON'T CARE WHO OWNS AMERICA, SO WHAT'S REALLY GOING ON AT THE MACRO LEVEL IS WE'RE TRANSFERRING OUR WEALTH OVERSEAS IN RETURN FOR CURRENT CONSUMPTION BECAUSE OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE KIND OF RIGGED INDUSTRIAL POLICY.

SO WHAT'S THE ACCUMULATION OF THAT?

IF YOU LOOK AT THE NET INVESTMENT POSITION OF THE UNITED STATES, WHICH IS HOW MUCH AMERICANS OWN OVERSEAS VERSUS HOW MUCH EVERYONE ELSE OWNS IN AMERICA, THAT NUMBER, WHICH WHEN I WAS IN THE REAGAN ADMINISTRATION, WAS A SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE NUMBER, SEVERAL HUNDRED BILLION DOLLARS -- IS NOW A NEGATIVE $27 TRILLION.

>> WELL, WAIT A MINUTE, REAL QUICK WHY IS IT SO BAD OTHER COUNTRIES INVEST IN OUR EQUITY, DEBT, AND REAL ESTATE?

>> IT'S NOT A QUESTION OF INVESTING.

SEE, YOUR SORT OF VIEW IS THAT IT DOESN'T MATTER WHO OWNS AMERICA.

THERE WAS A GREAT ARTICLE THAT WARREN BUFFETT HAS.

IT'S CALLED SQUANDERVILLE AND THRIFTVILLE, AND HE LIKENS THIS TO A FARMER WHO SELLS ACREAGE EVERY YEAR IN ORDER TO CONSUME.

HE WILL LIVE QUITE NICELY UNTIL HE DOESN'T HAVE ANYMORE LAND, AND THEN HE CAN NEITHER CONSUME NOR MAKE ANY MONEY FROM HIS LAND.

YOU CAN'T -- YOU CAN'T TRANSFER YOUR WEALTH OVERSEAS.

AND TO REMIND YOU THIS IS NOT BECAUSE OTHER COUNTRIES ARE MORE EFFICIENT OR DO THINGS BETTER THAN US.

THIS IS BECAUSE THEY HAVE AN INDUSTRIAL POLICY.

NOW, LET'S JUST THINK WHAT'S THE INDUSTRIAL POLICY?

IT'S CURRENCY MANIPULATION.

IT'S A TAX POLICY DESIGNED TO TAKE RESOURCES FROM THEIR CONSUMERS AND GIVE THEM TO THEIR PRODUCERS IN ORDER TO CREATE THIS HUGE IMBALANCE.

IT'S A BANKING SYSTEM.

IT'S LABOR LAWS.

IT'S HEALTH AND SAFETY REGULATIONS, WHICH ARE DESIGNED NOT BECAUSE OF SCIENCE TO HELP OUT SAFETY BUT TO REDUCE IMPORTS TO THEIR COUNTRY.

IT'S MASSIVE, MASSIVE, MASSIVE SUBSIDIES.

AND IF YOU LET THEM DO THIS, THESE IMBALANCES WILL ACCUMULATE, ACCUMULATE, ACCUMULATE.

AND THE UNITED STATES AS A RESULT OF IT IS A POOR COUNTRY BY $27 TRILLION THAN IT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE BEEN.

>> LET ME CUT TO THE CHASE.

IT SEEMS THE BAD THING THAT REALLY HAPPENED IS IT HOLLOWED OUT THE AMERICAN WORKING CLASS.

IS THAT TRUE?

>> WELL, I WOULD SAY -- I WOULD SAY THE BAD THINGS ARE THE FOLLOWING.

ONE, THIS MASSIVE TRANSFER OF WEALTH OVERSEAS, SO THE UNITED STATES AND AS I SAY OUR CHILDREN ARE POOR AS A RESULT OF IT.

THE SECOND THING IS WE'VE SEEN A SUBSTANTIAL SLOW DOWN IN WHAT YOU WOULD THINK OF IS SORT OF TRADITIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES.

SO MUCH SLOWER ECONOMIC GROWTH.

I GIVE YOU A COUPLE OF DATA POINTS ON THAT.

IF YOU LOOK AT FROM THE WAR, WHICH YOU -- WHICH YOU IDENTIFIED AS A DATA POINT, TO 2000, THE UNITED STATES GREW ON AVERAGE ABOUT 3.1 PERCENTAGE GDP A YEAR.

WHEN YOU MOVE TO THE LAST 25 YEARS, THAT IS TO SAY AFTER THIS PERIOD OF YOU WOULD SAY HYPER-GLOBALIZATION, WHICH INCLUDES THE WORST SINGLE THING WAS GRANTING THE MOST FAVORED NATION PERMANENTLY TO CHINA.

BUT ALSO NAFTA AND CREATING THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, AND WE CAN DELVE INTO THAT IF WE HAVE TIME.

SO IF YOU LOOK AT FROM 2000, 2001 FORWARD INSTEAD OF 3.1% GDP GROWTH, WE END UP WITH 2.1 OR SLIGHTLY OVER 2% OF GDP GROWTH.

AND IF YOU THINK OF -- OF PERIODS OF TIME THE UNITED STATES IN MOST 20-YEAR PERIODS BEFORE 2000 GREW OVER 3% ABOUT 14 YEARS OUT OF 20.

WE'VE SEEN BASICALLY A FLAT LINE FROM CHINA ENTERING THE WTO.

FOR 15 YEARS WE SAW A FLAT LINE IN MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME, AND THEN WE'VE SEEN THESE HOLLOWING OUT OF THESE CITIES THAT WE SEE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND ALL THE VERY BAD CONSEQUENCES OF THAT INCLUDING, I WOULD SAY, VERY BAD HEALTH CONSEQUENCES WHERE A LOT OF OUR WORKING CLASS PEOPLE HAVE REALLY LOST MANY YEARS OF THEIR LIVES.

YOU KNOW, THERE WAS A FAMOUS BOOK CALLED DEATHS OF DESPAIR, WHICH POINTED OUT PEOPLE THAT DON'T HAVE A COLLEGE DEGREE, WHICH IS LIKE A PROXY FOR THESE WORKING CLASS PEOPLE, ON AVERAGE LIVE ABOUT EIGHT-YEAR SHORTER LIVES.

AND WHAT DO THEY DIE FROM THE THEY DIE FROM SUICIDE, ALCOHOL, DRUGS, BASICALLY WHAT THEY CALLS DEATHS OF DESPAIR.

SO WE'VE SEEN VERY BAD SOCIETAL IMPACTS, SLOWER ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND TRANSFER OF WEALTH OVERSEAS.

AND I SAY NONE OF IT IS BECAUSE OF BASIC ECONOMICS.

IT'S ALL BECAUSE SOMEONE ELSE, IN THIS CASE PRIMARILY CHINA, BUT A LOT OF OTHER PEOPLE HAVE VERY AGGRESSIVE ECONOMIC POLICIES.

THEY'RE DESIGNED REALLY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FACT THAT THE UNITED STATES HAS A RELATIVELY OPEN CAPITAL MARKET AND A RELATIVELY OPEN ECONOMIC SYSTEM.

>> THE SYSTEM YOU PROPOSE IS ACTUALLY TO SAY, ALL RIGHT, IF THERE ARE MAJOR IMBALANCES BETWEEN OVER A COURSE OF SAY THREE OR FOUR YEARS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND ANOTHER COUNTRY, WE GOT TO STOP THAT.

WE GOT TO PUT SOME TARIFFS ON OR WE GOT TO MAKE SURE THEY GET THEIR TRADE BACK INTO BALANCE.

COULD YOU DO THAT AMONGST ALL DEMOCRATIC NATIONS AND TRY TO HAVE A NEW WORLD TRADE ORDER BASED ON BALANCES?

>> YES.

THAT, WALTER, IS PRECISELY WHAT I'M -- WHAT I'M PROPOSING.

WHEN PRESIDENT TRUMP CAME TO OFFICE, HE WAS FACED WITH TWO GIGANTIC PROBLEMS IN THIS SPHERE AND OTHER PROBLEMS, OBVIOUSLY, OUT OF IT.

ONE THESE MASSIVE TRADE IMBALANCES WE'RE HAVING, THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS ON OUR ECONOMY BUT PRIMARILY ON OUR WORKERS.

WE ALSO HAVE THIS GEOPOLITICAL RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA THAT HAD TO BE DEALT WITH, AND CHINA HAS BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE ECONOMICALLY BUT ALSO MORE AGGRESSIVE MILITARILY AND DIPLOMATICALLY.

SO WE HAD THESE TWO THINGS TO DEAL WITH, AND I THINK HE DEALT WITH THEM APPROPRIATELY USING TARIFFS.

YOU COULD CRITICIZE THIS OR THAT DETAIL, BUT THE DIAGNOSIS AND THE DIRECTION AND THE TOOL, IN MY OPINION, WERE CORRECT.

SO THEN THE QUESTION IS WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE, RIGHT?

YOU SOLVED THE PROBLEM.

I THINK WE NEED A NEW GLOBAL ORDER.

WE NEED A NEW ORGANIZATION THAT PEOPLE CAN HAVE CONFIDENCE IN AND THAT HAS PREDICTABILITY.

AND WHAT I AM PROPOSING IS ONE AMONG DEMOCRACIES, REASONABLY OPEN MARKET COUNTRIES.

AND WHAT I'M REALLY SAYING IS IF THEY COMMIT TO BALANCE OVER A SOME PERIOD OF TIME GLOBALLY, NOT BILATERALLY, THAT WE WILL HAVE THIS KIND OF PREDICTION -- PREDICTABILITY.

AND WE WILL HAVE MORE GROWTH AND BETTER OUTCOMES NOT ONLY FOR AMERICAN WORKING PEOPLE BUT FOR THE WORKING PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD.

BECAUSE BY PUTTING IN PLACE TARIFFS OR SOME OTHER KIND OF CORRECTIVE MEASURE, YOU'RE REALLY HELPING THE PROPER ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES AROUND THE WORLD.

YOU'RE NOT REALLY DETRACTING FROM IT BECAUSE YOU'RE GOING TO GET BACK TO THIS NOTION OF A SYSTEM THAT DOESN'T HAVE THESE GIGANTIC IMBALANCES.

>> YOU TALK ABOUT THE INEQUALITIES, TOO, THE ENRICHING OF THE ELITES, I THINK YOU SOMETIMES CALL IT IN YOUR PAPER.

IS THAT SOMETHING THAT WAS STRUCTURALLY PART OF THIS TRADE SYSTEM?

AND HOW COULD WE GET IT SO THAT THE REWARDS FOR THE WORKING CLASS, FOR LABOR COULD BE BETTER OFF IN THE SYSTEM YOU PROEMS?

>> WELL, I'M HOPING THAT'S WHAT HAPPENS.

SO YOU ASK YOURSELF WHAT REALLY HAS HAPPENED.

IF YOU LOOK AT THE UNITED STATES, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OUR HISTORY, THE TOP 1% HAS MORE WELT THAN THE MIDDLE 60%.

IF YOU ASK YOURSELF, TAKE THE TOP 1% PERSON AND COMPARING THEM TO THE MIDDLE PERSON, WHEN I WAS A KID AND WHEN YOU WERE A KID THAT WAS ABOUT 36 TIMES RICHER.

NOW IT'S 72 TIMES RICHER, SO WE'RE MOVING IN A VERY BAD -- NOW, SOME LIBERALS MIGHT SAY THE WAY TO APPROACH THAT IS TO TAX VERY HEAVILY THE RICH PEOPLE AND GIVE THE MONEY TO THE MIDDLE CLASS.

THAT, I THINK, IS NOT A GOOD OUTCOME BECAUSE I BELIEVE IN THE DIGNITY OF WORK.

I BELIEVE THAT PEOPLE FEEL BETTER WHEN THEY HAVE PRODUCTIVE, GOOD JOBS.

SO WHAT I'M SUGGESTING IS THAT WE HAVE A SYSTEM THAT'S DESIGNED TO CREATE THESE -- THESE HIGH-PAYING JOBS.

AND IF WE GET THAT TRADE DEFICIT DOWN FROM 1.2, AND I WOULD SAY IT'S PROBABLY IF YOU PROPERLY CALCULATE IT EVEN HIGHER THAN THAT TRILLION DOLLARS, YOU'RE GOING TO CREATE AN ENORMOUS NUMBER OF THESE JOBS.

WE NEED MORE WORKERS IN THE 100,000, $190,000 RANGE.

>> AND YOU TALK ABOUT BRINGING BACK THE GOOD JOBS AND MAINLY I THINK IN MANUFACTURING YOU MENTIONED IN THE PIECE BECAUSE IF WE HAD BETTER TRADE BALANCES MAYBE WE'D MANUFACTURE MORE HERE.

BUT AREN'T THERE 400,000 OR SO MANUFACTURING JOBS GOING BEGGING IN THE UNITED STATES?

WHAT'S THE IMBALANCE THERE?

>> SO FOR SURE.

AND I THINK TO SOME EXTENT THAT IS EVIDENCE THAT THE TRUMP PROGRAM IS WORKING.

THIS IS GOING TO TAKE TIME.

REINDUSTRIALIZATION IS GOING TO TAKE TIME, AND TRAINING, GETTING WORKERS FROM -- FROM -- YOU KNOW, FROM NOT WORKING OR FROM LOW PAYING JOBS TO HIGH PAYING MANUFACTURING JOBS IS GOING TO TAKE TRAINING.

IT'S GOING TO TAKE TIME.

IT'S GOING TO TAKE DILIGENCE, BUT IT IS IN THE PROCESS OF WORKING.

WE HAVE LOTS -- LOTS -- MILLIONS OF AMERICANS OUT THERE WHO ARE EITHER UNEMPLOYED, PARTIALLY EMPLOYED LOOKING FOR FULL-TIME WORK OR TOTALLY OUT OF THE WORKFORCE.

IF YOU ADD ALL THOSE UP, WHO KNOWS WHAT THE NUMBER IS, BUT YOU CAN EASILY GET TO 20 MILLION AMERICANS WHO NEED THESE KIND OF JOBS.

AND NOBODY THINKS THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN IN FIVE MINUTES OR FIVE DAYS OR EVEN A YEAR.

THIS IS A LONG-TERM PROCESS.

BUT WE -- AS YOU SUGGEST, WE SEEM TO BE MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

THERE'S A LOT OF WHAT I CALL GREEN SHOOTS THAT SUGGEST THAT THE MANUFACTURING IS TAKING OFF.

>> YOU TALK ABOUT HOW IT SEEMS TO BE WORKING THE DIRECTIONAL WAY THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS DONE WITH THE TARIFFS, YET THE U.S.

GOODS TRADE DEFICIT IN 2025 WAS AT A RECORD HIGH.

EXPLAIN THAT TO ME.

>> WELL, PART OF WHAT HAPPENED WAS PEOPLE TRYING TO RUSH THINGS, AND TARIFFS SORT OF AN IMPLEMENTATION PROBLEM.

ANOTHER THING THAT HAPPENED, WALTER, YOU SAW A LOT OF COMPUTERS AND THINGS COMING IN BECAUSE OF DATA CENTERS THAT ARE BEING BUILT IN THIS MASSIVE WAY.

SO WE SAW A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF GOODS COMING IN IN THAT.

SO YOU SAY TO YOURSELF -- YOU KNOW, THE CRITIC OF THE PRESIDENT WILL SAY MY GOODNESS WE HAVEN'T REINDUSTRIALIZED.

NO ONE WOULD CRITICIZE THE CHIPS ACT A YEAR AFTER IT WAS IMPLEMENTED IN 2022 BY SAYING WE HAVEN'T REINDUSTRIALIZED.

WHAT ARE THE GREEN SHOOTS?

YOU SAY THIS PURCHASING MANAGER'S INDEX IS NOW POSITIVE.

WE SEE THE FED'S PRODUCTION NUMBERS ARE NOW SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENTS.

WE HAVE SEEN A SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN PRODUCTIVITY, WHICH IS REALLY, REALLY IMPORTANT IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR.

WE'VE SEEN FACTORY START-UPS.

WE'VE SEEN CAPITAL INVESTMENT UP SUBSTANTIALLY, SO THERE ARE A LOT OF THINGS TO INDICATE THIS IS HAPPENING.

BUT AS YOU AND I BOTH KNOW, THIS IS A MULTI-YEAR PROCESS, AND, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE TO HAVE -- WE HAVE TO START EVERY DAY TRYING TO GET IT TO, YOU KNOW, WORK FOR THAT DAY, AND OVER A PERIOD OF HOPEFULLY TWO OR THREE YEARS WE'LL SEE THESE JOBS, YOU KNOW, WE'LL RETURN, AND WE'LL SEE THE DIRECTION CHANGE DRAMATICALLY.

>> YOU ALSO PREDICTED LAST TIME THAT PRICES WOULD COME DOWN, AND YOU SAID IT WOULD BE PRETTY SOON.

WELL, OBVIOUSLY THAT HASN'T HAPPENED WITH INFLATION REALLY TICKING UP.

IS THAT SOMETHING THAT'S GOING TO TAKE A MUCH LONGER TIME, TOO?

>> SO LET'S TALK ABOUT THAT.

WHEN THE TARIFFS WERE IN PLACE YOU AND I SPOKE, AND WHAT ECONOMISTS AND CRITICS FROM SOME, YOU KNOW, SIGNIFICANT BUSINESS NEWSPAPER SAID IS WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A DEPRESSION AND DOUBLE DIGIT INFLATION, RIGHT?

SO LET'S PUT OURSELF IN CONTEXT.

THEIR -- THEIR PREDICTIONS WERE ACTUALLY LOOKING BACK FARCICAL AND FUNNY, YOU KNOW, THEY'RE SO RIDICULOUS.

SO THEN YOU SAY WHAT REALLY IS HAPPENING?

RIGHT NOW WE ARE SEEING A BUMP IN INFLATION.

INFLATION IS A SYSTEMIC THING.

CLEARLY THE IMPACT OF ENERGY COSTS BECAUSE OF THE WAR IN IRAN IS GOING TO HAVE AN IMPACT.

I WOULD SUGGEST IF YOU GO BEFORE THAT CORE INFLATION, THAT IS TO SAY INFLATION THAT DOES NOT INCLUDE ENERGY, WAS ACTUALLY IN A PRETTY GOOD RANGE.

IT WAS ABOUT A LITTLE OVER 2%.

THE NOTION THAT TARIFFS SOMEHOW CREATE INFLATION IS -- IS, I THINK, REALLY QUITE WRONG.

YOU'VE SEEN A STUDY BY THE SAN FRANCISCO FED THAT SUGGESTED IT IS NOT TRUE.

YOU'VE SEEN THE FACT THAT WE PUT TARIFFS IN PLACE, AND WE DID NOT HAVE INFLATION IN THE FIRST TERM.

YOU CAN SEE THAT CHINA HAS MORE -- MORE BARRIERS TO TRADE THAN ANY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD, AND IT ACTUALLY HAS DEFLATION, NOT INFLATION.

SO I DON'T REALLY THINK IT'S FAIR TO MAKE THAT KIND OF LINK.

RIGHT NOW ARE WE SEEING INFLATION CLOSER TO 3% OVERALL THAN WE REALLY WANT, WHICH IS CLOSER TO 2%?

YES, BUPT THERE'S A LOT OF THINGS GOING ON.

AND IF YOU LOOK AT WHERE THAT INFLATION IS, IT IS ALMOST NOT AT ALL IN TARIFFED ITEMS, RIGHT?

IT IS IN SERVICES, PRIMARILY HEALTH CARE AND FINANCIAL SERVICES, SO -- AND THESE ARE THINGS THAT DON'T HAVE ANY TARIFFS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM AT ALL.

SO I DON'T SEE ANYTHING IN THE CURRENT DATA THAT SUGGESTIONS THAT THE PRESIDENT'S PROGRAM IS NOT WORKING.

I THINK I SEE A LOT IN THE DATA THAT SUGGESTS THAT THE PREDICTIONS OF ALL THE GENIUSES -- BY THE WAY, THE SAME GENIUSES WHO PRESCRIBED AN ECONOMIC PROGRAM THAT ENDED UP GETTING US INTO THIS POSITION, WHERE WE HAVE ALL THESE REALLY BAD RESULTS FOR OUR WORKING CLASS PEOPLE.

I DON'T SEE ANYTHING THAT SUPPORTS THEIR POSITION.

AND WHERE WE ARE IS WE HAVE TO STICK TO IT.

I WOULD SAY STICK TO THE PROGRAM.

WE HAVE IT WORK OUR WAY THROUGH THIS IRAN SITUATION, GET OIL PRODUCTION BACK UP, OIL PRICES BACK DOWN, AND THEN I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF THE RESULTS, THE LONG-TERM RESULTS OF MANUFACTURING AND THE RETURN OF THESE KIND OF JOBS, WHICH BUILD UP OUR COMMUNITIES AND OUR FAMILIES.

>> AMBASSADOR ROBERT LIGHTHIZER, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US AGAIN.

>> WALTER, IT'S ALWAYS GREAT TO BE WITH YOU.

THANK YOU.

>> ALL RIGHT, AND WE RE-ESTABLISHED A CONNECTION WITH OLGA RUDENKO OF THE KYIV INDEPENDENT.

OLGA, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR STICKING AROUND.

APOLOGIES TO YOU AND OUR VIEWERS FOR INTERRUPTIONS THERE.

SOMETIMES THESE THINGS ARE OUT OF OUR HANDS.

I DO WANT TO PICK UP FROM WHERE WE LEFT OFF.

WE WERE TALKING ABOUT UKRAINE AND THEIR DRONE TECHNOLOGY AND EXPORTING THAT TO OTHER WESTERN AND PARTICULARLY -- I'M SORRY, NOT WESTERN COUNTRIES BUT TO GULF COUNTRIES.

YOUR PUBLICATION IS ALSO REPORTING THAT UKRAINE'S PUSH TO BUILD HOMEGROWN BALLISTIC DEFENSE SYSTEMS CAN HAPPEN WITHIN THE NEXT YEAR OR SO, THAT IT IS ACTUALLY GROWING AT A RATHER RAPID PACE.

CAN YOU TALK ABOUT THAT SIGNIFICANCE AND WHAT THAT WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE FOR UKRAINE, AS THIS WAR ENTERS NOW ITS FIFTH YEAR?

>> SO SO FAR THIS IS ONLY A STATEMENT, THIS IS BASICALLY A DEADLINE ZELENSKYY IS ESTABLISHING SAYING WE NEED TO DEVELOP IT WITHIN A YEAR.

WE'LL SEE IF IT ACTUALLY CAN HAPPEN.

IT HAS, OF COURSE, TAKEN DOWN BALLISTIC MISSILES AS WE KNOW ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING THINGS FOR AIR DEFENSE.

BUT IF INDEED UKRAINE CAN DEVELOP ITS OWN DOMESTIC SYSTEMS THAT CAN TAKE DOWN RUSSIAN BALLISTIC MISSILE, THAT WOULD MAKE A LOT OF DIFFERENCE BECAUSE THIS KIND OF AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS IS THE BIGGEST POINT OF DEPENDENCY FOR UKRAINE BECAUSE THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE DEPEND ON THE MOST FROM OUR WESTERN PARTNERS WHO WILL GIVE US THINGS LIKE MISSILES THAT PROTECT CITIES LIKE KYIV WHERE I'M IN.

AND IT IS RUSSIAN BALLISTIC MISSILES THAT HAVE BEEN DOING THE MOST DAMAGE BECAUSE OF HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO -- TO INTERCEPT THEM.

AND WE HAVE JUST HAD A TERRIBLE WINTER THAT WHERE RUSSIA IMPOSED -- IMPOSED BLACKOUTS AND PEOPLE DIDN'T HAVE ANY HEAT AND ANY ELECTRICITY IN THEIR HOMES FOR DAYS AND WEEKS.

AND IT IS AN EXAMPLE OF A CATASTROPHE THAT RUSSIA CAN IMPOSE WITH BALLISTIC MISSILES, AND IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO COVER THE WHOLE OF UKRAINE WITH THE DEFENSE SYSTEMS THAT THE WEST PROVIDES.

IF UKRAINE CAN SUPPLEMENT THAT WITH DOMESTIC, THAT WOULD MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE FOR US.

>> AND THE URGENCY WITH COME TO BUILD ITS DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX THERE IS NOT JUST BECAUSE OF THE WAR WITH IRAN.

THERE'S BEEN A LONG-STANDING FRUSTRATION WITH THIS WHITE HOUSE AND WITH THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION, TOO, FOR NOT PROVIDING WEAPONS THAT UKRAINE SAID THAT THEY NEEDED URGENTLY.

BUT DEFINITELY WITH THIS WHITE HOUSE, IF FOR SOMETHING LESS THAN THE RHETORIC THAT WE ARE HEARING FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP AND THOSE AROUND HIM.

THE ATLANTIC IS REPORTING THAT PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY IS INCREASINGLY SIGNALING HE'S NO LONGER VIEWING THE UNITED STATES AS A RELIABLE ALLY.

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR UKRAINE GOING FORWARD?

>> I MEAN, I THINK SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE SECOND TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ZELENSKYY AND HIS ADMINISTRATION AND UKRAINE HAVE BEEN TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO DEAL WITH THEM BECAUSE OBVIOUSLY UKRAINE RELIES SO MUCH ON THE U.S.

AS A PARTNER AND ALLY IN DEFENDING AGAINST RUSSIA.

BUT THE SIGNALS FROM THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAVE BEEN MIXED, TO SAY THE LEAST.

BECAUSE WHILE -- WHILE THE U.S.

STILL PROVIDES -- PROVIDES A LOT TO UKRAINE, THE RHETORIC, AS YOU SAID, CAN BE SO CONFUSING AND CAN THROW PEOPLE OFF SO MUCH HERE.

AND ONE DAY TRUMP WAKES UP AND SAYS SOMETHING ESSENTIALLY PRO-RUSSIAN AND THE OTHER DAY SOMETHING NOT PRO-RUSSIAN.

IT CAN BE VERY UNNERVING WHEN YOU'RE FOLLOWING THAT FROM UKRAINE, AS YOU CAN IMAGINE.

SO I THINK WITH THE -- WITH ZELENSKYY TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT UKRAINE CAN OFFER TO OTHER POTENTIAL PARTNERS AND EXISTING PARTNERS, HE IS TRYING LIKE WITH HIS TOUR IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND OFFERING DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY, JUST ONE OF THE WAYS FOR UKRAINE TO POTENTIALLY DIFFERENTIATE AND DECREASE ITS DEPENDENCY.

AND I THINK IT'S FAIR TO SAY ZELENSKYY AND UKRAINE GAVE UP ON THE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, BUT I THINK THE PAST YEAR HAS DEMONSTRATED THAT UKRAINE NEEDS -- NEEDS TO BE STRATEGIC ABOUT IT AND CAN'T RELY OR OVERRELY ON ONE PARTNER TOO MUCH EVEN IF IT'S SUCH A BIG PARTNER AS THE U.S.

>> WHAT ABOUT ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH THE EU?

THERE WAS A HUGE SIGH OF RELIEF WITH THE ELECTION OF PETER MAGYAR'S PARTY IN HUNGARY AND VICTOR ORBAN STEPPING DOWN.

OBVIOUSLY HE'D BEEN AN IMPEDIMENT AND ROADBLOCK FOR GETTING AID IN THIS WAR.

BUT AT THE SAME TIME BULGARIA HANDED A LANDSLIDE TO -- AND SAID BEFORE THE ELECTION THAT CRIMEA IS, IN FACT, RUSSIAN.

SO HOW IS THAT ALL BEING INTERPRETED IN KYIV IN.

>> AS YOU SAID, THE ELECTION BROUGHT A SIGH OF RELIEF IN KYIV VERY MUCH SO BECAUSE HUNGARY HAS MADE ITSELF THE BIGGEST ROADBLOCK IN AID TO UKRAINE.

THERE IS A VERY SIZABLE $90 BILLION ALONE BEING BLOCKED BY HUNGARY HOPEFULLY UKRAINE WILL NOW RECEIVE BECAUSE WE REALLY NEED THIS FUNDING.

AND AS FOR BULGARIA, WE WILL SEE HOW IT WILL ACT FROM NOW ON.

BUT WHAT IS VERY SUDDEN IS THAT VLADIMIR PUTIN HAS BEEN SEARCHING AND FINDING AND HE WILL NOT STOP SEARCHING AND FINDING USEFUL ALLIES IN THE EU.

AND IT IS UP TO EU TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO DEAL WITH THINGS LIKE THIS, HOW NOT TO LET ONE MEMBER BLOCK SOMETHING THAT IS SO ESSENTIAL FOR THE DEFENSE OF THE EU.

>> YEAH, A LOT OF CHANGE HAPPENING THERE IN EUROPE AND NOT ENOUGH ATTENTION IS BEING FOCUSED AS IT SHOULD BE ON THIS WAR, OBVIOUSLY, BECAUSE SO MANY EYES ARE NOW FOCUSED ON WHAT'S HAPPENING IN IRAN THERE AS THE WAR IN UKRAINE IS IN ITS FIFTH YEAR.

OLGA RUDENKO, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THE TIME AND FOR JOINING US.

REALLY APPRECIATE IT.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

>>> AND FINALLY FOR US, AN ENVIRONMENTAL SUCCESS STORY RIGHT HERE IN NEW YORK CITY.

THE NEW YORK STATE HEALTH DEPARTMENT HAS DECLARED THAT SOME FISH FROM THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER ARE SAFE TO EAT.

YES, YOU HEARD THAT RIGHT.

AFTER DECADES OF BEING DESCRIBED AS A CESSPOOL, A $1.7 BILLION PROJECT SUCCESSFULLY REMOVED MILLIONS OF CUBIC YARDS OF CONTAMINATED GUNK FROM THE RIVER, LOWERING LEVELS OF TOXIC PCB CHEMICALS CLASSIFIED AS LIKELY HUMAN CARCINOGENS.

HEALTH DEPARTMENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT IS SAFE FOR EVERYONE TO CONSUME ONE PORTION OF STRIPED BASS PER MONTH.

SO HAPPY FISHING TO EVERYONE WHO DARES.

I RUN ALONGSIDE THE HUDSON RIVER ALMOST EVERY DAY.

THIS NEWS MADE BE VERY HAPPY.

AND THAT'S IT FOR OUR PROGRAM TONIGHT.

IF YOU WANT TO FIND OUT WHAT'S COMING UP ON THE SHOW EACH NIGHT, SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER, PBS.ORG/AMANPOUR.

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR WATCHING "AMANPOUR AND COMPANY" ON PBS.

JOIN US AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT.