Here & Now

McCoshen & Ross on Political Fortunes in 2026 Election Cycle

Governor Evers making a comment there on political fortunes going forward. What will those fortunes look like in the midterm elections? We welcome our political panelists, Republican Bill McCoshen and Democrat Scot Ross and hello.

Bill McCoshen:
How are you?

Frederica Freyberg:
Pretty good. So Bill, Tom Tiffany said Republicans got their butts kicked Tuesday night. How, in your view, did that happen?

Bill McCoshen:
Well, he’s right about that. If you’re going to win statewide, you need three things. You need money, organization and message, MOM. We had no money. We didn’t look like we had any organization. And I’m not sure what the message was. So I think we failed on all three of those points. And ultimately, it wasn’t the worst Supreme Court election in state history, but it was pretty close. And you know, when Maria Lazar is losing her home county of Waukesha by 43,600, she got 43,600 fewer votes than Brad Schimel did in her own county, that’s a rough night.

Frederica Freyberg:
Scot, was it about the money advantage for Chris Taylor?

Scot Ross:
No, because we’ve seen advantages before where I mean, I’ve been part of ones where the Republicans had all the money and the liberal candidate didn’t have any. And we’ve never — I haven’t, you know, the most I saw was like I think seven points back in 2013. But the fact is, is that this is a combination of a couple things. First and foremost, that the Republican brand is broken. The Donald Trump Republican Party has taken us to war. It’s taken us into the poor house, and it keeps doubling down. And I would point out that, you know, in the same interview where Tom Tiffany said they got their butts kicked, he also endorsed Trump’s, you know, announced intention to commit war crimes and every economic policy that he has pushed forward, including trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Considering this race was about fairness, freedom and rights, there’s no wonder the Republicans lost.

Frederica Freyberg:
So Bill, how big a factor is Trump in these elections?

Bill McCoshen:
I don’t think the race was nationalized. I don’t agree with Scot on that. It may have had something to do with some people staying home. I mean, the truth is they didn’t know Maria Lazar. She raised less than $1 million, which is far less than Brad Schimel. I mean, a year ago, we had the most expensive Supreme Court race in history, $115 million. This one combined was around $10 million. So people didn’t know who she was. So I’m not, I’m not sure that Trump was a huge factor in this race. But the truth is, you know, congrats, first of all to Justice-elect Chris Taylor. But she won seven out of eight congressional districts, including Tom Tiffany’s.

Scot Ross:
And they went up 71, 71 of the 72 counties had a higher performance than in 2025.

Frederica Freyberg:
So how does this travel into November?

Scot Ross:
Well, I think, I think that the trend is irreversible in terms of the Republican performance and Trump’s brand. I would just — I mean, again, I just have to disagree because if you look at past elections, you know. Like for instance, in 2016 where Rebecca Bradley, I mean, she lost, she won by 94,500 votes. You know, when there were 97,000 more Republicans who voted in the presidential primary that year, that’s not even close to 20%. It’s not even close to double digits in terms of the difference between the two. You know, Republicans have in the, in the Trump era, lost races where tons of money, the most money ever spent, they’ve lost when not a lot of money spent. They’ve lost by double digits. each time that we’ve had these things. It’s just again, it’s — the brand is broken. They are doubling down. The cult will continue. Tom Tiffany, Derrick Van Orden and whoever Republicans can finally try and get to be leader of the Senate and Assembly Republicans, you know, come November, you know, it’s just a disaster. But again, Democrats have to do the work in order to get there.

Bill McCoshen:
Not a great correlation between spring elections and fall elections in the state of Wisconsin. If you look at 2023, Janet Protasiewicz won a Supreme Court seat by ten points. 2024 Donald Trump wins Wisconsin with the most votes of any statewide candidate in history. So it’s not a perfect correlation, but I would say it’s a warning sign for Republicans, and they ought to take it that way.

Frederica Freyberg:
So, Bill, what about the war in Iran and its repercussions at home?

Bill McCoshen:
I think it’s having an impact in this respect. Gas prices are up. Whether it’s a buck, buck 50 and people feel that. So the fundamental question that every voter has to answer when they go into the voting booth is, what’s in it for me if I vote for X or Y? And right now, that’s not great for Republicans. For Republicans to have a shot this fall, gas needs to be at or below three bucks a gallon. And if it’s not, it’s going to be a tough cycle.

Scot Ross:
Yeah, 33% gas prices have gone up since Trump’s war of choice in Iran.

Frederica Freyberg:
So if that somehow gets resolved and those gas prices come down and inflation comes down, is it — does it kind of revert to a regular cycle then?

Scot Ross:
No, because people are still losing their health care. They’re still seeing ICE, you know, the Gestapo in our streets, you know, killing Americans who do nothing more than protest. Like those things aren’t going to stop. And the cult of Trump within the Republican Party of elected officials, specifically Derrick Van Orden and Tom Tiffany, who both, as Bill correctly pointed out, lost the congressional district. I mean, Derrick Van Orden lost his district — err, Chris Taylor won Derrick Van Orden’s district by 22 points. Eau Claire and La Crosse were nearly 40%.

Bill McCoshen:
It could. It could revert to a normal cycle. Before the war broke out in the Middle East, the generic ballot was a couple points favorable towards Democrats. That’s something that Republicans can and compete in and win in. Now it’s five or six, and in some polls, it’s eight points. That’s a much tougher environment for Republicans.

Frederica Freyberg:
So, Scot, what about for Democrats in their splintered primary for governor with so many candidates?

Scot Ross:
I mean that just means there’s more coverage of what Democrats are talking about because they’re not attacking each other, not going after each other. It’s the same thing from 2018. I mean, there were hardly any even contrast leveled in the 2018 primary for Democrats. And what ended up happening, Tony Evers upset Scott Walker, who was trying to win a third term and didn’t. You know, I think that, on top of, you know, not just that ballot, but talking — I’m sorry, to your question, not just talking about the Democrats in the, in the, in the primary, but what that’s going to do for the down ballot, the state Senate and state Assembly. I mean, we saw things like, you know, some of the targets, the best targets the Republicans have in the state Senate, Jeff Smith, Chris Taylor won his district by 30 points. Like, you know, that’s all, I mean, there’s even new, there’s new meat on the table as results of Tuesday night.

Bill McCoshen:
Not surprising but a different take. There’s 123 days until the primary. If they do not define one another, Francesca Hong will be the Democratic nominee.

Frederica Freyberg:
What’s the money race going to look like?

Bill McCoshen:
It’s going to be very different this fall. Maria Lazar got no outside help, including from allied groups like the Federalist Society and WMC, who have always spent seven figures in Supreme Court races. This fall, the money will be there for Tom Tiffany.

Frederica Freyberg:
And what about the money on the Democratic side?

Scot Ross:
Golly yes, I think that the money is going to be there for Democrats because they have been an incredible fundraising machine for the last, like, you know, since Wikler.

Bill McCoshen:
Thankfully. Wikler’s gone. So…

Scot Ross:
But Devin’s doing a good job of raising the money too. You know, again, Democrats need to do what — in order to win these races, it’s not about outraising the Republicans. It is about a consistent, relentless assault on what Republicans stand for and how they are hurting the people of Wisconsin.

Bill McCoshen:
207 days to go. It’s time to get the war over and get back to domestic affairs.

Frederica Freyberg:
Ok, Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross, thanks very much.

Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross:
Thank you.