Podcasts

Zac Schultz:
Good afternoon and welcome to Chicago, host city for the Democratic National Convention. You’re watching a special presentation of Here & Now‘s 2024 election coverage. We’re coming to you live from media row inside the United Center in downtown Chicago. I’m senior political reporter Zac Schultz, joined as always by our esteemed guests, Bill McCoshen and Scot Ross.

Bill McCoshen:
The intros get better every day, don’t you agree?

Scot Ross:
Seriously! We should stay another week.

Zac Schultz:
You guys have survived this long.

Bill McCoshen:
Right?

Zac Schultz:
We made it to Thursday.

Bill McCoshen:
Wonder what tomorrow’s going to be.

Zac Schultz:
Alright, let’s start with last night, Tim Walz — Coach Walz as the Democrats would like to see America look at him — had his big speech on the stage. What was your first impression of him?

Scot Ross:
Oh, Coach Walz went right into the end zone. Whatever metaphor you want to use, he really crushed it last night. He did exactly what he needed to do, which was to introduce himself to America in a way that’s relatable and authentic. And every part of his speech was exactly that, while also talking about some of the issues that really, really matter in this election and why people, you know, are so concerned about the idea of having a second Donald Trump term that’d be even more extreme, even more dangerous than this one. Kamala Harris, Tim Walz will offer a bright, hopeful future. That’s what America wants. That’s what Wisconsin wants.

Zac Schultz:
What did you think of him?

Bill McCoshen:
I’m going to give you the good and the bad. I think, start with the good. Tim Walz spoke for 18 minutes. That was smart. It’s very rare in politics these days that candidates can stay on message and stay disciplined and get their whole speech done in that kind of time. Voters don’t have as long of attention span as a lot of candidates think they do. So, I think it was really smart that he did that. He brought energy, there’s no question about that. And lastly, you know, there’s no question he’s appealing to the base, so he fired up the base. So, I think in those respects, he was outstanding. He met the mark. That’s what he was supposed to do. On the downside, the intro still had him listed as Command Sergeant Major, when he wasn’t Command Sergeant Major. And then he himself spoke about IVF, which we discussed in spirited discussion yesterday when that isn’t what they used. And the difference between IVF and IUI is embryos. And so, the IVF could be impacted by state abortion policy. IUI is not. So, I think he was misleading, at least in two respects, again last night.

Zac Schultz:
So, I’m glad you brought that up. That was next on the list. I wanted to clarify for those who caught our discussion yesterday. He has consistently said since he was introduced to the national stage that he and his wife used, had fertility issues and that he sympathized and empathized with people who had used IVF to have their children. They did use a process called IUI — intrauterine insertion — which is not the same, it does not create embryos. It’s not impacted as you had said.

Bill McCoshen:
Correct.

Zac Schultz:
However, it is adjacent and it’s technically considered the first step towards IVF. It’s cheaper and easier and less invasive. And so, a lot of couples try that first before they go that. So, Scott, I’m sure you say in his — in the line of thinking — he never said technically that they used it.

Scot Ross:
Yeah.

Zac Schultz:
He never clarified.

Bill McCoshen:
He leaves that impression for sure.

Scot Ross:
Exactly, but again, this is about control of women’s bodies and women’s lives that we get under Donald Trump and Republican leadership and what we got from the U.S. Supreme Court, and why Democrats have been winning races all over the place since the Dobbs decision. Yes, they had infertility issues. They went in and did something about it. And like, I don’t know if you’ve had friends who have gone through IVF-

Bill McCoshen:
I have.

Scot Ross:
I’ve had friends who — the shots that the women have to go through are really onerous. Tim Walz went through the shots. So, he’s even more related — je’s even more related to women. You know, again, this is about the control that we’re going to have. We know that the Donald Trump blueprint, Project 2025, wants one set of couples, men, women, and children? And all this is about trying to erase the idea that people who aren’t same sex couples, can reproduce and have kids.

Bill McCoshen:
I think he could have made his point.

Scot Ross:
And I think that’s exactly what this is about. This is about control. It has always been about control, and people are going to reject it.

Bill McCoshen:
He could have made his point by being honest about IUI.

Scot Ross:
He was…

Zac Schultz:
Would you have accepted it if he would’ve said…

Bill McCoshen:
Yes, certainly.

Zac Schultz:
“We used something very similar to IVF.”

Bill McCoshen:
Yes.

Scot Ross:
He’s a coach, not a doctor.

Bill McCoshen:
They aren’t impacted by state abortion laws. So, yeah, I think that would’ve been smarter because it does get to trust and credibility. That’s where he’s sort of straddling the line.

Zac Schultz:
But your candidate, Donald Trump really doesn’t have anywhere to stand on trust and credibility.

Bill McCoshen:
Well, I mean that’s, every voter’s going to have to make that decision on Nov. 5, which candidates they trust more.

Scot Ross:
The fact is that the Republicans are claiming that Donald Trump won’t push for a national abortion ban. The Project 2025 blueprint, which was created with 57 of his aides, exactly does that, and they do it without votes. That’s the thing they do it by…

Bill McCoshen:
I can fact check it in real time. CNN…

Scot Ross:
By going in and, you know, using the process outside the legislative process, which is always like a problem.

Bill McCoshen:
CNN yesterday, fact checked this and said Donald Trump did not have anything to do with Project 2025.

Zac Schultz:
Just most of the people connected to Donald Trump.

Bill McCoshen:
Doesn’t matter. He didn’t.

Scot Ross:
Yeah, he’s not in there. OK.

Zac Schultz:
All right, one other thing I want to talk about with Tim Walz and his family — and I think we’re all on the same page here — has to do with this son, Gus Walz. We saw a lot of emotion from the reaction when he was on stage in the crowd. And we saw some terrible statements being made online last night from right-wing people who were just trying to go after Walz, including a talk show host from Wisconsin. He deleted the tweet. But what is it about conservative anger that kids are back in fair play when it comes to politicians these days?

Bill McCoshen:
I think family should be off grounds. Full stop, except or unless they break the law.

Scot Ross:
It’s Hunter.

Bill McCoshen:
Right? I think Hunter Biden’s a separate case.

Zac Schultz:
He’s also an adult.

Bill McCoshen:
And he’s an adult. Well, even adult kids I think should be — when mom or dad decides to run for political office, yeah, they’re making a lot of sacrifices and putting their family at risk. But that doesn’t mean that they’re fair game for any attacks. I am totally against that completely.

Scot Ross:
If I may, you know, if we’re going to talk about Hunter Biden for a second. I think we can talk about the fact that while she was in the White House, Ivanka Trump had 12 different patents from China. The fact that she and Jared Kushner increased their wealth by over $300 million. And the fact that, you know, Eric Trump stole money from a cancer charity, and Donald Trump Jr., well, he shows up on talk shows, which isn’t the worst thing in the world. But anyhow.

Zac Schultz:
We saw him in Milwaukee.

Scot Ross:
But again, that was ghoulish. You know, those examples are ghoulish. Now, the radio talk show host in Milwaukee, I couldn’t see that because he blocked me on Twitter. But I’m going to take your word for it.

Zac Schultz:
Moving on…

Bill McCoshen:
You know what I liked about it is the kid was clearly excited. My kids would’ve been excited had I been standing up there, you know, and that was an emotional time. I’m surprised Walz was able to get through that portion of the speech.

Scot Ross:
I mean, literally as a parent, would you want anything other than that? You know?

Bill McCoshen:
No. Heck no.

Zac Schultz:
So, another speech last night was from former President Bill Clinton. One of the numbers that he threw out, a statistic that Washington Post fact checked and said was true, is he said since the end of the Cold War, so since 1989, 50 million jobs created under Democratic presidents, one million jobs under Republican presidents. First of all, that’s the first I’ve heard of it. And it’s been fact checked. Why is that not the Democrats’ main talking point every election cycle?

Scot Ross:
I would just say this. I have seen different memes where it’s like, how many jobs under Reagan? You know, it’s a graph of that. Nobody’s ever… Apparently not math majors in the Democratic Party. Nobody added it all up. But the fact is, is that there’s a reason why that’s the case. It’s because Democrats invest in people. They recognize if you put money into the pockets of the middle class, the middle class goes out and spends it and drives the American economy. The fact that you can’t have a strong economy without a strong infrastructure. This should be the nail in the coffin to the idea that tax breaks for rich people creates jobs because it just simply doesn’t. And the proof is in what, you know, the big dog came out and said last night, albeit a little bit more hoarse than he usually is.

Bill McCoshen:
I would say that was Bill Clinton’s best line. I think putting Bill Clinton on the stage was a mistake. This is all about the vibes. This is about joy. This is a guy who had spent, made 46 trips to Jeffrey Epstein’s island. I don’t think that’s the guy they want representing the Democratic Party. Very few people in that room last night were even born when Bill Clinton was the president. I think it was a mistake, and I don’t think… He’s clearly lost his fastball.

Zac Schultz:
Since we’re talking about Jeff Epstein, you brought him up. Trump is actually flying to campaign events on his former private plane that is owned by a conservative donor who has handed it out, and there’s a Trump logo on the side of the plane.

Bill McCoshen:
You’re saying the Trump, that the plane he flies on is a former Epstein’s plane?

Zac Schultz:
Not his main plane, but he has been found using it as a side plane.

Bill McCoshen:
Yeah, I don’t, I don’t, I don’t know anything about that.

Scot Ross:
I’ll bail you out on this. I wonder if he’s going to fly that plane to the Jan. 6 awards I just saw before we went on the air.

Bill McCoshen:
Did he buy the plane? I mean, Jeffrey Epstein’s, he’s been dead for three years.

Zac Schultz:
No, it is a conservative donor out of California that bought the plane through a number of shell companies.

Bill McCoshen:
OK.

Zac Schultz:
And then they tracked it through the tail number and the registration number. It now has a Trump logo on the side.

Scot Ross:
And I’m wrong. I mean, I see picture after picture.

Bill McCoshen:
It’s an asset.

Scot Ross:
I see picture after picture of Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein hugging for many, many years, you know, over the course of many, many years. So, if it’s a liability for Bill Clinton, hand on the ballot, it sure is a liability for Donald Trump.

Zac Schultz:
Moving on to tonight, we have the big speech, Thursday night speech. We got a preview yesterday from the Harris campaign that her speech is split into three segments: sharing her story, the theme of optimism versus Project 2025, and then patriotism. So, what are you expecting to hear from her?

Scot Ross:
I think we’re going to hear, you know, a lot of what we’ve heard over the last couple of days, a reinforcement of that because it’s all building towards what she is, which is the best case for these things, which is we’re going to make sure that we protect reproductive freedom. And in some cases — in 21 states — restore reproductive freedom. We’re going to have a strong economy that works for — it doesn’t just, you don’t just get by, but you get to thrive, especially if you’re working hard, something that’s been denied to a lot of people under Republican policies. And then third, the fact that we’re going to strengthen democracy. And again, the idea that Donald Trump is going to an awards ceremony for the Jan. 6 terrorist insurrectionists. My only question is, is Derrick van Orden, our congressman in Jan. 6 terrorist insurrection, going to be the MC or do the Pledge of Allegiance, or whatever the heck they want him to do?

Bill McCoshen:
So, there was a lot of talk about freedom last night. Republicans and Democrats have a very different definition of this. Democrats, their definition of freedom is a big government, right? Kamala Harris was the deciding vote to create 87,000 new IRS agents. She set off the inflation by being the 51 or 50 vote for the Inflation Reduction Act and two massive spending budget bills. So, if she doesn’t talk about the economy tonight, that’s an advantage for us for sure. She can talk about joy all she wants to, but at the end of the day, people are going to look at whether they can pay their rent or their mortgage. What are their grocery bills? What are their gas bills? Those are the things they’re worried about. They’re worried about the influx at the southern border. If she doesn’t talk about those two subjects tonight, I’d say it’s going to be a win for us.

Scot Ross:
I mean, the fact is that there’s going to be a construction boom under the, if the Republicans are back in charge because every doctor’s office is going to have to be big enough to have the six members of the Supreme Court, Donald Trump, JD Vance, every Republican member of the Congress, every Republican governor and every Republican legislature across this country. Because that’s how big they need. Because they want to be in your because they want to be in the women’s doctors’ offices.

Zac Schultz:
So, you…

Scot Ross:
That’s a pretty big government.

Zac Schultz:
You’ve talked about 2025 — it’s not Trump. We’ve had that discussion.

Bill McCoshen:
Yep.

Zac Schultz:
Both in Milwaukee and here. But Democrats have had a section on that project every single night. And it’s clear she’s going to be talking about it. So, whether Trump himself was in the room when it was signed, he is deeply connected to it. And Democrats are making that case. They must see that this is working. They’re sticking to it.

Scot Ross:
Well just think about what’s in that plan, you know, a nationwide abortion ban, end to IVF, an end to…

Bill McCoshen:
Neither of which will happen.

Scot Ross:
Certain contraceptives, and, you know, Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid all gutted.

Bill McCoshen:
Nothing will happen.

Scot Ross:
Unions obliterated.

Bill McCoshen:
Not going to happen.

Scot Ross:
You know, over and over again. And again, the Jan. 6 folks all pardoned, and let, you know, or clemency, whatever you want to say about that. You know, it is a blueprint for disaster. It is a blueprint for fascism. It is going to be rejected by and large by the American people. And that’s why we’re going to have a blue wave in 2024.

Bill McCoshen:
Well, the other thing I’ll take out of Bill Clinton speeches. He warned the people in the audience last night, both in the room and on TV, not to get distracted by phony issues. Project 2025 is a phony issue. Trump has been asked about this many, many times. He said he didn’t have anything to do with it. That’s not his agenda. His agenda was rolled out at the RNC. That’s what he’s running on. Democrats don’t want to talk about the economy, they don’t want to talk about immigration. Those are the things that really matter to voters. They want to talk about abortion, fine. Donald Trump isn’t as far right as some in our party would like him to be on that particular issue. So, I don’t think he’s going to be scary to suburban women.

Scot Ross:
You know, it just depends on the day of the week. It just depends on the day of the week as to how extreme Donald Trump is on abortion. You know, let’s be very, very clear about that. And abortion is about economics because it’s whether or not women can fully participate when they want to participate in the American economy. That the government can’t come and say, “We’re going to force you to have that child, and you can’t work now because you’re having that child.” That’s exactly what it’s about.

Bill McCoshen:
There’s no state that does that.

Scot Ross:
It is absolutely about…

Bill McCoshen:
There’s no state that does that.

Scot Ross:
If you can’t, you know, if you are going…

Bill McCoshen:
There’s no state that does that.

Scot Ross:
In the Republican states, they fight against paid family medical leave for women, maternal leave, parental leave. And they want to force people to have abortions.

Bill McCoshen:
So, look for the boogeyman for the next 75 days from the Democrats because they do not want the American people to see how extremely liberal Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are because once they do, the American public will say, “That’s not for us.”

Zac Schultz:
But when it comes to looking for the boogeyman, that’s the Republican playbook as well, talking about rising crime when the crime statistics are going down. So, this is all just politics?

Bill McCoshen:
No. Crime statistics are not down. They’ve changed how they calculate those statistics from one administration to the other. Just like they changed the definition of vaccine during the COVID pandemic. It’s — listen, just ask yourself, do you feel safer today than you did four years ago?

Scot Ross:
I do. I can go outside without, you know, potentially like having a disease that can kill me.

Bill McCoshen:
How many people in this city have been shot since we’ve been here?

Scot Ross:
You know, the…

Bill McCoshen:
Dozens.

Zac Schultz:
Have they?

Bill McCoshen:
Yeah.

Zac Schultz:
I haven’t seen the local news to know numbers. I haven’t heard.

Scot Ross:
It’s a, you know, it’s a city. Those things happen. There are gun violence. Maybe if Republicans had allowed the assault weapons ban not to expire 30 years ago. Maybe if Republican Party wasn’t in the complete and total control of the NRA. Maybe if, like, again, what Tim Walz said last night, “I believe in the Second Amendment, but our first priority is the safety of our children.” And Republicans have absolutely abrogated that responsibility by letting these assault weapons into our schools to kill children over and over and over again. We are unlike any other country on planet Earth because of the mass shootings that we have because of the fact that the Republican Party is owned by the gun lobby.

Zac Schultz:
Looking at the numbers, the viewership numbers have come in and all these issues that are being put out there.

Bill McCoshen:
Yep.

Scot Ross:
How high are we?

Zac Schultz:
It’s 20 million for the first couple of nights. That is ahead of where Republicans were on their first couple of nights. The Democrats said that with online views, it’s somewhere around 81 million, but that’s actually still small compared to generations past. But what I want to have you guys talk about is how are these consumed down the road? How are these speeches chopped up and used for advertising in a commercial for these individual people on stage, for Cavalier Johnson promoting himself or for other things?

Bill McCoshen:
They’ll be used for 75 days. And Scot and I sort of focus on, or maybe me, the fact that Democrats blew prime time two nights out of the three. It doesn’t really matter as much as it would’ve 15 or 20 years ago because people consume their information differently. They can get it in the morning, they can get it any time of their day on their handheld device. So, the stuff that Democrats want to push out of this convention, doesn’t matter if it was at 11:30 at night or at 7:00 p.m. in the evening. They’ll get it out. The stuff we want to use from here, same thing. We’ll clip it, and we’ll get it out.

Scot Ross:
Yeah, I mean we will definitely agree on that. And listen, I think we all agree that online viewership is an incredibly — and the people who do that are amongst the smartest news consumers we have on planet Earth, that’s for sure.

Zac Schultz:
Yes.

Scot Ross:
I also am looking forward, here’s the clips I’m looking forward to. I’m looking forward to the clips about Oprah Winfrey coming out last night and saying, “Hey, independents, here’s the case for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.” She made an incredible, incredible case for independents. And again, I think, you know, independent suburban women are going to decide this election. Oprah is a champion for them on their issues.

Bill McCoshen:
I thought Oprah was good last night. I think she and Michelle Obama have created a bit of an issue for Harris tonight, right? Will Harris be the strongest female speaker this week? I mean, I think Harris will do well tonight. I expect her to, it’s on a teleprompter. I’m sure it’s been well crafted. But the reality is, voters have an image of what Michelle did on Tuesday night and what Oprah did last night. And those are a pretty high bar.

Zac Schultz:
Talking about females taking the stage tonight. Tammy Baldwin, Wisconsin senator, has got a speaking slot in the 6:00 hour. I saw a poll from Rassmusen that came out in the last couple of days, has her about 52-42. Is this race already over?

Scot Ross:
I don’t think it’s over because you have to do the work, you know? And, you know, Tammy Baldwin, the thing she has done really, really well is win elections. Again, in 2018, she won huge. But she’s going to do the work to make sure that she continues to be our U.S. senator. And that work is both in the Congress and outside the Congress. Getting $7 billion in infrastructure money. You want to talk about deciding vote? We’ll talk about it. Tammy Baldwin deciding vote to make sure that $7 billion in infrastructure came to Wisconsin. You know, bridges, roads, all of that. Child care to Wisconsin, you know. So, I think she’ll run on the fact, the way that she governs, which is working across the aisle when she can, for sure. But getting results no matter what.

Bill McCoshen:
Yeah, I would say the race is not over. Eric Hovde has a golden opportunity over the final 75 days to show a contrast with her, to explain his business experience and why that would be important in Washington, D.C. when they feel economic insecurity. Let’s not forget that Ron Johnson was down to Mandela Barnes eight points about this time two years ago. And by Oct. 1, Ron Johnson had taken the lead, so…

Zac Schultz:
But he was an incumbent.

Bill McCoshen:
He was an incumbent. No question about that. But if Eric Hovde — I think he has an opportunity here, but it has to come on the front end of this 75 days. If he holds all of his fire until the very end, it’ll be too late.

Scot Ross:
Absolutely. You’re absolutely right about that. Because again, people in D.C. are making their decisions about what are the races that are going to be priorities. And Eric Hovde’s in a particularly tough spot because there has not been any recent polling that shows him, you know, overtaking Tammy Baldwin, and in D.C. when they’re making their choices about how do we win back the U.S. Senate, how do Republicans win back the U.S. Senate? They’re going to look at him and say, “Well, he can’t, he’s not winning and he’s got a ton of money from that $3 billion bank out in California where he lives. Let him foot the bill.” And that’ll be the tough thing, when he’s sitting there with his wife and saying, “They’re not coming in for me. I got to go in for 30 million now.” Like that’s a tough — I don’t want to be a part of that conversation.

Bill McCoshen:
We’ll never have that conversation.

Scot Ross:
I don’t think I ever — yeah — exactly. I don’t think we ever will have that conversation.

Zac Schultz:
But looking back to her first race in 2012 against Tommy Thompson.

Bill McCoshen:
Yeah.

Zac Schultz:
There was a criticism the Republican primary took away all of his money. He couldn’t get back on the air until after Labor Day.

Bill McCoshen:
Right.

Zac Schultz:
What you just said, talking about if he waits too late, it is too late, especially against Tammy Baldwin.

Bill McCoshen:
It is too late. She had the money immediately in 2012. And you might recall — I certainly do — she said he’s not who he used to be. So, she was giving voters a permission, who have voted for him many, many times, to go her direction. And we didn’t have the resources to defend that or answer it until, you know, she had burned it in, for sure.

Scot Ross:
Can I just make, if I may, just make two quick points about that? One, is that’s what happened to Mandela Barnes. The SEC went dark for the six weeks after the primary. So, they got to define him with those, I would say very racist ads that ran nonstop. But a little poke behind the curtain. Bill and I used to work out at the same gym. And in 2012, over in Fitchburg,

Bill McCoshen:
Yeah.

Scot Ross:
I would get there. I think my class was like 6:30, get there about 6:00, watch stuff. It was nonstop Tammy Baldwin ads. Nonstop Tammy Baldwin ads up on the screens. And so, that’s what happens. When you can spend that kind of money, you can define yourself, you can define your opponent, and you can come across to be victorious. And Democrats are going to spend all the money in the world they would ever need to make sure that Tammy Baldwin returns to the Senate.

Bill McCoshen:
But there will be resource decisions. Scot’s right about that. At some point in the next six weeks, Steve Daines, who’s the head of the senatorial committee for the Republicans may say, “I’m pulling out of all of these states except for Montana, ’cause Montana gets us to 51.”

Scot Ross:
Yeah, yep.

Bill McCoshen:
“And I’m going to put every nickel in Montana.”

Zac Schultz:
And six weeks would be too late for Eric Hovde at that point.

Bill McCoshen:
Yeah.

Scot Ross:
You know, and we’ve seen that here. I mean, in 2022, the DCCC House Majority PAC had put down $2 million to keep Ron Kind’s seat in Democratic hands, a state that we had for 26 years.

Bill McCoshen:
Right.

Scot Ross:
They bailed on Brad Pfaff — Derrick Van Orden’s in there. Now they’ve said they’re going to spend 4 million this time, so it’ll be up to Rebecca Cooke to show, in the same way that Eric Hovde has to show, that she’s really, really viable when it comes to doing that.

Bill McCoshen:
Yeah.

Scot Ross:
And it’s going to be, and you know, it’s always a challenge for non-incumbents.

Zac Schultz:
So, let’s talk about money because Wisconsin Politics just put out some fundraising numbers. The Democratic Party, $4 million in July; Republicans, $800,000. What does that mean when it comes to the race for the Assembly, or flipping the first few seats in the state Senate that they’d need in that two cycle process?

Scot Ross:
Well, having money is wonderful. Nobody wants less money. But the real key in this election is that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz and Tammy Baldwin are going to drive every single Democrat out to the polls. And I think they get like 60% to 65% of the independents.

Bill McCoshen:
The party to party comparison…

Scot Ross:
And, I’m sorry…

Bill McCoshen:
Is actually closer than I expected it to be. Democrats have been swamping us in money for several cycles ever since Ben Wikler took over as party chairman. No question about that. But we have other resources. There are other ally groups that are helping the Assembly and the Senate maintain those majorities, and they’re well funded.

Scot Ross:
But here’s the thing, why is the, most affluent billionaires, the largest donors to the Republican party, the Uihleins — why do they spend outside of the Republican Party? Why will they not spend inside the Republican Party? It’s such a tactical blunder when it comes to spending money on television because candidates get the best ad rates. Now, Republicans create a system that you can get all the money in the world you want through the party to the candidates and the Uihleins because they don’t trust the Republican Party of Wisconsin or whatever, are not giving their money. They’re literally — it’s like a two for one cut.

Zac Schultz:
In past election cycles where we’ve looked at similar circumstances, Democrats can win at the top of the ticket. Tammy Baldwin overperforms everyone, Democrats have more money. It was the maps that kept, and incumbency, that kept Republicans in place. Both of those variables are different. So, what do you think of the Democrats the last few days getting very bullish on their chances in the Assembly?

Bill McCoshen:
I think the exuberance is a little early. My bet is still on Robin Vos and the Assembly Republicans and keeping their majority, and I don’t think it’ll be 50 or 51. I think they’ll be 54 or 55.

Zac Schultz:
When we look at the state Senate…

Scot Ross:
I’m sorry, may I?

Zac Schultz:
Oh, yeah, go ahead.

Scot Ross:
Fifty-two Assembly Democrats after Election Day, and I think one Republican is going to flip and become an independent after that.

Zac Schultz:
Are you naming names?

Scot Ross:
No.

Zac Schultz:
OK. In the state Senate, there are three races that people are looking at. The 8th, with Duey Stroebel as an incumbent in a different district.

Bill McCoshen:
Yep.

Zac Schultz:
Joan Ballweg in the 14th in a blue district, but power of incumbency and she’s a much more moderate Republican…

Bill McCoshen:
Yep.

Zac Schultz:
By a lot of people’s eyes. And then the 30th up in Green Bay is an open seat. Do you think the Democrats get all three of those?

Scot Ross:
Yes.

Zac Schultz:
Or what’s it like going up against Joan Ballweg? Because she is — that’s Luther Olsen — that’s an old seat where people know those names.

Scot Ross:
Yeah, I mean, but there hasn’t really been a — the only competitive race in the 14th District that I’ve ever seen in any way, shape or form was during the recall. Those were the only resources I’ve ever seen poured into that race. I think the 30th is done. Jamie Wall is raising the lights out of the place. He’s a great guy. He’s exactly what Green Bay is. You know, with Duey Stroebel, I mean — he’s a little bit, he’s a little bit extreme. I’m going to say this, like my wife lives over, had Duey Stroebel, and after the map she actually got worse, she has Kapenga. So one of the few municipalities has got a worse Republican. But yeah, I think that it’s, I don’t know if they’re going to retake the Senate, but they’re going to come close.

Bill McCoshen:
So, best case scenario that Scot outlined, Democrats can pick up four, they’ll pick up the 18th, which is Oshkosh, the 30th, which is Green Bay, and then the 8th and the 14th. I don’t think they’re going to get all four of those. I think they’re going to get two, likely. But even if they got all four, Republicans would still have 18 seats, which is one more than they need for the majority. So, they can’t, Democrats cannot get the majority in the Senate this cycle. Even if Harris caught an unbelievable tailwind and had a little bit of coattails, the right seats are not up for them to get the majority.

Zac Schultz:
Seems highly unlikely to flip both chambers.

Scot Ross:
Yeah, it’s a number problem, yeah.

Zac Schultz:
Even the Democrats in their best imagination. So, I want to look at the other candidates on the presidential line in Wisconsin that could impact Harris versus Trump. There are reports that RFK, Jr. is going to be dropping out and endorsing Trump this weekend. He’s been pulling at 8% in the Marquette poll. Everyone knows third party candidates always crash as we get closer to the election. But he’s still there. His name’s still on the ballot. What is the impact of him going out for Trump? Does that change the dynamics in Wisconsin?

Scot Ross:
I mean, it’s just a reminder that the Republican Party is the anti-vax party.

Zac Schultz:
What do you think this means?

Bill McCoshen:
It appears like it could be a net gain. He’s attracting more Trump supporters today than Harris supporters, wasn’t necessarily the case when Biden was in the race. So, I think it’ll be a net plus for Trump.

Zac Schultz:
Even if his name’s still on the ballot?

Bill McCoshen:
Well, that’s an open question about whether or not his name can be removed from the ballot in Wisconsin. It looks like it will remain on the ballot, but then we’d need him to come here and support the ticket in that way. I still think Donald Trump will be in Wisconsin at least four times in the next 75 days. I think JD Vance will be here weekly. Maybe RFK, Jr. comes a couple of times over the next 75 days.

Scot Ross:
Yes, they’re opening up like, you know, 50-seat arenas for JD Vance’s weekly visits.

Zac Schultz:
Another third party candidate on the ticket right around the ballot is Jill Stein with the Green Party. There is a challenge. And just today, the Wisconsin Supreme Court announced they are asking for responses from the parties by tomorrow night at 5:00, to determine whether they should take this as an original action. You have very strong feelings about Jill Stein, I’m sure. What do you think about the Supreme Court, whether they keep her name on the ballot?

Scot Ross:
I mean, I think, I don’t know what the Supreme Court’s going to decide, you know? But I do know this. Politics ain’t beanbag, and like Jill Stein, you know, is a problem for Democrats. And so, if they can get her off the ballot because she didn’t follow the rules, that’s great.

Zac Schultz:
What’s her impact?

Bill McCoshen:
Best of my knowledge, she followed the rules. Democrats, the party of democracy, wants to knock her off the ballot because she might get a point, she might get 1.5% which could be the difference in Wisconsin. She did against Hillary Clinton. She was the deciding factor.

Scot Ross:
Well, the good news on the Jan. 6, or whenever the date is in 2025, they can have Jill Stein talk at their Stop the Steal rally in D.C. this next time.

Zac Schultz:
We saw Cornell West walking through the hall. And are there…

Scot Ross:
Yeah.

Zac Schultz:
Are they real spoilers when it comes to the third party?

Bill McCoshen:
No, no, no.

Scot Ross:
But I did see, yeah, I saw Cornell West and Bill. I was like, two guys who want to get Donald Trump back in the White House.

Bill McCoshen:
Yeah, third parties can get some votes in Wisconsin. It was decisive in 2016. It probably wouldn’t be even if Stein stays on the ballot. But frankly, if she qualified for the ballot, she should stay on. RFK, Jr., he wants to get off the ballot, it appears. We’ll find out for sure tomorrow. Then, you let him off.

Zac Schultz:
So, I saw some numbers from Ad Impact on spending reservations going through the fall. The only state where Republicans are even close to Democrats is Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It’s 24 million to 7 million in future reservations for ads. We were just talking about the importance of those dollars. I mean, how big is that comparison going to be down the stretch for the ads on screens?

Scot Ross:
Well, I mean, again, remember why Hillary Clinton lost Wisconsin 2016. They didn’t spend money on TV here.

Bill McCoshen:
Well, she didn’t come here.

Scot Ross:
Yeah, well, but I mean more but she could have visited. But I if you were going to take her visiting once or twice or $15 million in ads, I think I know what I would take.

Zac Schultz:
Well, this is a good comparison because you’re talking about Trump being here…

Bill McCoshen:
Right.

Zac Schultz:
Versus, obviously, what they’re expecting to spend on TV.

Bill McCoshen:
New reports suggest that Harris and Walz have raised somewhere around a half a billion dollars in the last 60 days, or 35, 40 days. That’s extraordinary, right? Democrats will have a money advantage. We’re going to have to outwork ’em. There’s no question about that. But the reality is, on that money, they’re competing for about 4% of the voters. The cost per vote on what they’re spending will be extraordinary.

Zac Schultz:
But the return is the presidency.

Scot Ross:
You know, and again, I look at — well, look at the money advantage that the Democratic Party has. The fact that they’ve been able to open, I think, 46 coordinated offices in 43 counties, including 20 counties or 32 counties where Donald Trump actually won. They’re competing there hard. And again, it is — it’s about the work. It’s the work they’re doing every day.

Bill McCoshen:
It’s about the work.

Scot Ross:
Neighbor to neighbor, person to person, knocking those doors.

Zac Schultz:
All right, we have just a few seconds left. There are rumors everywhere on the internet about special guests tonight. So, take your best wild stab in the dark. Who do you think Kamala Harris is going to have on stage or who’s going to make their appearance?

Scot Ross:
Oh, I’d love to see Beyonce.

Zac Schultz:
What do you think?

Bill McCoshen:
I hope it’s not T Swift.

Zac Schultz:
Alright, we will leave it there today. Thank you so much…

Scot Ross:
Music aficionados.

Zac Schultz:
For a great week. We’ll have you back tomorrow, which will be part of our special program tomorrow night at 7:00. Thank you for watching this special presentation of Here & Now‘s 2024 election coverage. Be sure to come back tomorrow, tune into the evening coverage of the convention where Here & Now will have another update on the day’s events, and join us tomorrow night to wrap up the week with that special one hour presentation of Here & Now with just a little bit more of Bill and Scot. It starts at 7:00. I’m Zac Schultz. Thank you so much for having us all week. We’ll be back tomorrow.