McCoshen & Ross at the DNC: Abortion, Economy, Immigration

Zac Schultz:
Good afternoon, and welcome to Chicago, host city for the 2024 Democratic National Convention. This is a special presentation of Here & Now’s 2024 election coverage. We’re coming to you live from media row inside the United Center in downtown Chicago. I am senior political reporter Zac Schultz, and I am joined as always by our two wonderful panelists, Scot Ross, Bill McCoshen. Thank you again for coming back. We’re in the home stretch, right? Can you feel it?

Bill McCoshen:
We’re over the 50-yard line.

Scot Ross:
Fabulous to be here.

Zac Schultz:
We’re almost there. All right, let’s start with last night’s speeches. We were previewing them yesterday in our show. We had the Obamas. Which one was your home run speech of the night, Scot? What

Scot Ross:
Oh, mine was the former First Lady Michelle Obama’s. I absolutely adored her speech. I was listening to it on my phone, and watching it, and I just I ended up like miles away from where I thought I was going to be because it was so inspiring. And you heard them, and I think you can almost hear the echoes of that, the case that they prosecuted against Donald Trump last night, and you could see that it really, it was that, we have the thing with the former first lady, which was, “When they go low, we go high.” You know, when they go low, she went for the throat, and like, in a way just tore him to pieces, everything his petty grievances, his attacks on women just over and over again, you know? And I, yeah, it was just, it was an incredible moment for, as a Democrat, to hear somebody truly who has had to endure so much, who’s had to endure so much, really take him on.

Zac Schultz:
What did you think of her line about, “Donald Trump may not want the presidency when he learns it’s one of those ‘Black jobs'”?

Bill McCoshen:
It was funny, you know? I think sometimes in politics not enough people laugh and see humor in things. I agree with Scot. I thought hers was the strongest speech of the night, and I think that comes with some risk, actually, for Kamala Harris, because can she match up to that? There were a lot of Democrats who wanted Michelle Obama to sort of fill the void when Biden was pushed off the side. She was strong last night. I mean, as a Republican, I’m glad that she’s not their nominee because she brought it last night. And, you know, for me Zac, the surprise of the night was Doug Emhoff. In sort of a quirky, almost dorky way, he was very authentic, and I thought he connected with people and helped humanize his wife, the nominee for president. And so, for a guy who doesn’t do this for a living, I thought Doug Emhoff did a pretty good job last night.

Scot Ross:
I mean, yeah, I 100% agree with Bill. Like, if you were looking for a tone of somebody you were auditioning to be the first first gentleman, that was the speech, and the, you know, the self-deprecation

Bill McCoshen:
Sort of dopey, yeah

Scot Ross:
Exactly, like

Bill McCoshen:
I mean, it was very authentic.

Scot Ross:
You know, like anybody’s dad, that was the kind of thing he did, and again, like that prelude to what the Obamas, the case that they prosecuted. I mean, I thought it, from start to finish, when Michelle Obama said, “Most of us will never,” you know, “Most of us will never be afforded the grace of failing forward.” Again, what Donald Trump has done versus what we all, what normal people face, and the fact that we will never benefit from the affirmative action of generational wealth after all the Republicans have done with DEI, and what they claimed about the Obamas, and all that sort of thing. I mean, that could not have been a better line, I think. You know, whoever Michelle Obama’s speechwriter is, please, please, please teach me your craft in case I ever have to do that again.

Bill McCoshen:
Well, and she delivered, and she delivered it very, very well, and, you know, there was a little bit of hypocrisy. The Obamas today are not who they were 16 years ago. They were of modest means 16 years ago. They’re multi, multi, multi-millionaires with many $10 to $15 million homes in Hawaii and on Martha’s Vineyard. So, I saw, I thought sort of the whole bootstrap, pull you up by the bootstrap was a little thick for her, but overall she delivered the speech of the night.

Zac Schultz:
So having to follow her, and he acknowledged that it was a tough spot to have to follow, was Barack Obama, and he went for Trump in a different way, talking about crowd size, which was one of the things that Donald Trump has hit on all over and over again. Crowd size matters. At the same time that the United Center was full for the Obamas, 18,000 people were estimated to be at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee for a Kamala Harris rally, and the same event. Crowd size matters in that way, and that hits Donald Trump right where it hurts him, right, Bill?

Bill McCoshen:
Yeah. I would say I’m going to give you a good and a bad, where I thought Barack Obama was very good last night was for Joe Biden. I think he did a better job sort of setting the Biden legacy than Biden did himself on Monday night. I thought it was magnanimous the way he treated Biden last night. He was the only one who mentioned him by name. Yeah, he was one of the guys that shivved him a few weeks ago, but I think the exit last night, that was classy on Obama’s part. You know, as it relates to some of the lines Biden, or Obama delivered, I didn’t think it was his best speech. I’ve seen him give far better than that. I think last night he was trying to get under Trump’s skin. He understands that Trump pays attention to things like crowd size. We talked about it on this set yesterday. I think it’s a nothingburger, at least until the end of a campaign, and we shouldn’t focus on that. We ought to focus on issues that matter to the people.

Scot Ross:
Yeah, Barack Obama, “Here is a 78-year-old billionaire who has not stopped whining about his problems since he rode down his golden escalator nine years ago.” Again, you could not have framed what independent voters have a problem with Trump about, which is self-interest and about the childish way in which he attacks people. And, again, I would disagree with Bill in the sense that I do think that former President Obama delivered the goods. It’s what the people there wanted. It’s a convention. That place was roaring loud, and he stepped up for President Biden, which I thought was fantastic, but he really was there to be the hammer.

Zac Schultz:
Is it good for Kamala Harris that there’s a night off in between Michelle and Barack and her speech that

Scot Ross:
Absolutely.

Zac Schultz:
Reset the

Bill McCoshen:
Absolutely

Scot Ross:
They have scheduled this one perfect. I mean, with the perfection of the way that they have scheduled in terms of building this to the crescendo of her speech I think is fantastic.

Bill McCoshen:
I would imagine they may even tone down Tim Walz’s speech tonight, because they do need a day between the Obamas and her, just for comparison purposes for sure.

Zac Schultz:
So talking about tonight, Tim Walz is there, but also Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson is going to be speaking. Is he representing his brand, the Milwaukee brand, Wisconsin Democrats? What’s he going to be doing tonight?

Scot Ross:
Yes, he is. Again, he has been an incredibly successful mayor so far. You know, he brought, the RNC came to Milwaukee in part because of his hard work

Bill McCoshen:
No doubt.

Scot Ross:
Along with the County Executive David Crowley, and support from both Democrats

Bill McCoshen:
Yeah.

Scot Ross:
And Republicans, and he showed that he put Milwaukee on stage, and Milwaukee delivered the goods, and I think that’s fantastic. I love the fact that our state’s biggest city is doing the work that it needs to do to promote the city, to bring people in, you know? So, yeah, we’ve seen the mayor walking around here talking to different press. I think it’s phenomenal. I think it’s fabulous.

Bill McCoshen:
He isn’t in a prime time slot. We used to get pretty jazzed when Tommy Thompson got national

Zac Schultz:
Jazzed? Is that an Evers reference?

Bill McCoshen:
Jazzed as hell. When Tommy got national speaking opportunities, it isn’t as big a deal as you might think, unless you’re in the prime time slot, but I’m sure the mayor will do a nice job tonight, and like Scot, I think it’s good that he’s out representing Milwaukee, and trying to encourage more people to come back.

Zac Schultz:
In terms of the Milwaukee honeymoon with Republicans, will that last into the next legislative session? Will they still remember Milwaukee with good thoughts when it comes to the next budget?

Bill McCoshen:
I think it has a lot to do with the people involved, and David Crowley and Cavalier Johnson have established really strong relationships. Assuming Republicans hold the majority in both houses, which I think they will yeah. I think they’ll still be able to get things done. It may not be as productive as this current session was, but there was a lot to do.

Zac Schultz:
So the other big speech of the night is Tim Walz. Is he going to provide the contrast with Vance, or is he there to be America’s football coach, America’s, you know, not quite as goofy as Doug Emhoff, but its next dad in that way?

Scot Ross:
I think a lot of the latter. I think on the campaign trail, individually in states, you can, as he’s introducing himself to America, you can get away with more of the jabs. But I think on this stage, he’s probably I’d hope he’d take it. JD Vance has at least one shot coming from the podium, I think. But we’ll see if like, we’ll see how far it goes, but I think they’re going to, I think they’re going to lean more into the idea of America’s coach, what he did in or I’m sorry, Minnesota, I’m not Laura Ingraham what he did in Minnesota. And again, coming back to what the message of the night is, which is strengthening democracy, you know, protecting abortion rights, or restoring abortion rights, and making sure that everybody has the chance not just to get by, but to really succeed, and I think that’s what you’re going to hear tonight from all of them.

Zac Schultz:
What are you expecting?

Bill McCoshen:
Listen, Walz is struggling. We call him the great embellisher on our side. He’s struggled with his facts about his own resume, including, oddly enough, saying his children were conceived through IVF when they weren’t. His wife said they weren’t. So, I think Tim Walz needs to introduce himself here tonight. He’s going to be a punching bag for the Republicans, no question. We think he, there’s an opportunity to show that there’s an extremely liberal ticket in contrast to the Trump-Vance ticket, and I don’t think the whole coach thing is going to work quite as well as Democrats do on the western side of the state. I mean, this is a guy who blew through an $18 billion surplus, then raised taxes another $10 billion on top of it. This is a guy who thinks illegal immigrants ought to have free college tuition and free health care paid for by taxpayers. So, I think the more Americans get to know Tim Walz, the less they’re going to like him, and I think there will come a point in time where the Harris campaign’s going to say, “Maybe this wasn’t the right guy.”

Zac Schultz:
So, when it comes to his record, we’ve already seen the attempt to swiftboat his military service. How much does he have to set the record straight, or to clear up what he said about whether he was in a combat zone versus how others may have referred to him when he didn’t correct them in that moment?

Scot Ross:
What I would say is this. For the independent voters, for the independent suburban women who will inevitably decide this election in the swing states like Wisconsin, they know that he served 24 years. That’s all that they need to know. All this other stuff is window dressing. I understand the Republicans trying to make an issue. They did it with the Swift Boats 20 years ago. It was atrocious and outrageous, and it took John Kerry 30 days to respond to it. Tim Walz took care of it on day one. It’s done, I think, for voters who are going to decide this election. It’s red meat for the Republicans. It’s nothing for swing voters, and in fact, I think it, how could you attack somebody who served for 24 years? Like how do you overcome that particular attack? And I think when it comes to Tim Walz’s record, it is phenomenal. He’s been one of the most successful governors, Democratic or Republican, you know? I mean, he’s cut taxes in all of his budgets. I think seniors get a $1,300 tax break, all of it. He did raise taxes on the wealthiest people because people like Donald Trump, because those are the people that should be paying into the shared services in which we all pay to support the things that make them able to do the business that they do.

Bill McCoshen:
Where Scot and I agree is on the service. I give him full credit for serving 24 years. Anyone who serves in the military deserves our gratitude, no question, full stop. Where he struggles, and where we’re going to have an opportunity is on the issue of trust. He calls himself, and he allowed himself to be called a command sergeant major for 15 years. He did not earn that title. He did not complete the coursework. He retired as a major sergeant. There’s a big difference between those two things. I don’t think you can call yourself something you did not earn, and let that stand for 15 years. Now, yesterday, the thing about his wife and IVF, again, it gets to trust and credibility. His record in Minnesota, I think, is ripe for the picking. But his own credibility on things he has said himself, even on this campaign, is what’s going to bite him.

Zac Schultz:
So, then what’s bigger

Scot Ross:
Her name is literally Hope. Their daughter’s name is Hope because she was conceived through IVF because they couldn’t

Bill McCoshen:
It wasn’t IVF. There’s another version

Scot Ross:
Absolutely was. It was absolutely what it was. This is just a place where we are just literally going to disagree on what the terms of this debate are.

Zac Schultz:
So, when it comes to those kinds of issues, what is bigger red meat for Republicans, the actual policies that he has supported and put his signature on versus semantic arguments about things that a lot of voters really don’t want to dig down into?

Bill McCoshen:
Well, I think you’re getting to the big subject here. This whole convention is about Donald Trump, and that’s what Democrats want the election to be. And if it is, they’ve got a chance of winning. Donald Trump and JD Vance and the Republicans need this convention to be about the things voters care about inflation, gas prices, mortgage, rent, electricity bills. Those are the things that voters care about immigration, open borders, a world on fire. Those are the things that Republicans are going to win on, and by Friday, if we’re back on those issues, I like our chances.

Scot Ross:
All the things that Bill just mentioned are things that the Democrats with Kamala Harris and Joe Biden pushed forward to do things about, the Investment Recovery Act, the Inflation Act. [Editor’s note: The second referenced legislation’s title is the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.] They had a border deal that Donald Trump was able to throttle, you know?

Bill McCoshen:
They didn’t have a border deal

Scot Ross:
And then the last, and the last part, yeah, it absolutely did. James Lankford, one of the most conservative members

Bill McCoshen:
You didn’t have 60 votes

Scot Ross:
Of the U.S. Senate

Bill McCoshen:
And it didn’t pass the House

Zac Schultz:
Republicans went on Fox and said

Scot Ross:
They were the ones who stopped it

Zac Schultz:
Trump killed the bill that could’ve passed

Scot Ross:
Republicans stopped it

Bill McCoshen:
He may have talked to some, no question about it, but they didn’t have 60 votes to pass in the Senate, and it was never going to pass the House. So, the notion that this somehow was going to pass is false.

Scot Ross:
It absolutely it was the Republicans who killed this thing, and let’s go back to the big issue, abortion. Tim Walz signed into law the first reaction

Bill McCoshen:
The most extreme abortion law in the country.

Scot Ross:
The first reaction to the Dobbs decision that made women second-class citizens, he signed the bill that protected abortion rights, and will protect them forever in the state of Minnesota

Bill McCoshen:
Even after birth.

Scot Ross:
Absolutely not. That is absolutely garbage, and the people who have to have, the people who are forced to have abortions late are not doing it by choice. They are doing it because there is a safety of the mother, the child has perished. I mean, I watched with near tears in my eyes, you know, the women talking on the first night about their experiences with it, and we should respect that, and be true about the facts on this. Women do not try and have abortions that late. It is medically because they need to.

Bill McCoshen:
Walz is going to be a net negative. Anyone who walks around and says he’s happy to be called a big government liberal is going to struggle on a November ballot.

Zac Schultz:
Let’s dig into abortion just for another second because Hadley Duvall from the state of Kentucky was on the stage, and she had a quote that said, “What is beautiful about a child having to carry her parent’s child?” She said that she was raped by her stepfather at 12 and had to have an abortion. Do stories like that I mean, how worried are you about stories like that penetrating and becoming the conversation around abortion when there are a lot of Republican states?

Bill McCoshen:
Donald Trump’s

Zac Schultz:
That are outlawing all of those

Bill McCoshen:
Is different than the traditional Republican

Zac Schultz:
But his position is not consistent at all, and he still takes credit for overturning Roe v. Wade and supports all the complete total abortion bans around the country

Bill McCoshen:
Which turned it back to the states. It allowed every state to determine their own destiny as it relates to the abortion issue

Zac Schultz:
But which part would you want Republicans to try and win on, either some of these near total abortion bans, or a version of the bill that Tim Walz signed

Bill McCoshen:
Some of these near abortion bans, like in Florida, it’s on the ballot in November. We’ll see how that turns out. In red states like Kansas, voters rejected the almost complete restriction on abortion. So, you know, what you see in Wisconsin, what Trump has said is he supports exceptions for rape, incest, life of the mother. He also supports some, 12 weeks or some level like that, but he doesn’t support a national abortion ban. And I think that’s what Democrats are going to try and convince voters that if he gets elected, he’s going to pass some national abortion ban. Again, you need 60 votes to get through the Senate. This Senate, under any electoral scenario, is not going to get to 60, no chance, and then you got the House, too.

Scot Ross:
If the Senate is in Republican hands after this election and Donald Trump is the president, and the House, you know is Republican, there will be a nationwide abortion ban passed because the filibuster will be gone, and it will pass with the 50 votes, or 51 votes, or 50-whatever Republicans have. Let’s be honest about that. The second thing is, you know, again, going back to vice president, JD Vance has called exceptions for rape and incest inconveniences. You know, he is the most extreme

Bill McCoshen:
That isn’t what he called them.

Scot Ross:
The most extreme member of the U.S. Senate when it comes to the issue of denying women their right to reproductive freedom, which is also economic freedom. And the last thing I would say is this talking point about like we sent it back to the states, what if suddenly the Supreme Court said, “OK, businesses don’t have First Amendment rights nationally now, just goes back to the states? So, depending on where you’re at, you know, Citizens United would be here, Citizens United would not be here.” The Republicans would scream bloody murder, and that’s just, like, corporations spending money. Rights are fundamental. Women have the right to be first-class citizens along with men, and just because they can make babies doesn’t mean they should be second-class citizens, and voters are going to reject Donald Trump and Republicans up and down the ticket because of this. Abortion is on the ballot and they are on the wrong side.

Bill McCoshen:
Couple things. Vance’s position is now Trump’s position. That’s on the position description. If you sign up to be the vice president, you accept the positions of the presidential candidate. That’s just how it works.

Scot Ross:
Yeah, that’s how “hang Mike Pence” happened, right?

Bill McCoshen:
So, I would say Democrats need abortion to be a bigger issue than it is. It’s currently number three on all national polls. It’s a little bit higher for Democrats, but not for independents, or Republicans.

Scot Ross:
It absolutely is at the tops for independent women. Absolutely, and again, those women in swing states, like in Wisconsin, are going to decide this election and they’ve shown that they’ve been rejecting this. I mean, you know, post-Dobbs, women keep winning, or Democrats keep winning statewide elections, and, you know, even a couple weeks ago when we had the constitutional amendments,? So, and constitutional amendments, 12 or 13 of them have passed over the last like decades.

Zac Schultz:
So, let’s go back to one of the other big issues you’re talking about, which is the economy.

Bill McCoshen:
Yup.

Zac Schultz:
Yesterday you previewed that there would be a readjustment in the numbers. Why don’t you break the news to our audience?

Bill McCoshen:
So, today, the Department of Labor came out with revised numbers that show 818,000 fewer jobs were created in the last 12 months, including 115,000 fewer manufacturing jobs. This is scandalous in my opinion, that the Department of Labor could get out, get away with putting out statistics that are so flawed they have to revise by that big of number

Zac Schultz:
They always revise

Bill McCoshen:
This is the biggest, no, this is the biggest revision in 15 years.

Scot Ross:
They’re constantly revised for seasonally adjusted and such. I mean, we used to track them when, during the George W. Bush years is how they, and during Scott Walker’s years, because he promised that we were going to get 250,000 jobs, and he came woefully short, and we always had to make sure that, “OK, was this seasonally adjusted.” Listen, the fact is we lost 3 million jobs under Trump. We gained 15

Bill McCoshen:
During COVID…

Scot Ross:
Fifteen point two million, OK, I’ll take your talking point 15.2 million under Kamala Harris and Joe Biden. I think that’s a net 12.2 million. I think Democrats win on that, win on that.

Zac Schultz:
But what does that look like in terms of trend versus image when we’re talking about the optics of right before an election, which is

Bill McCoshen:
It’s going to impact the markets. It’s not a good trend for Democrats. I mean, the economy still will be the number one issue for voters 75 days from now. There’s no question about that.

Zac Schultz:
But that’s also personal economy, too. It’s pocketbook versus

Bill McCoshen:
Absolutely it is.

Zac Schultz:
A broad, if I didn’t lose my job, do I worry as much about fewer net jobs being created

Bill McCoshen:
I’d begin and end every speech if I were Donald Trump and JD Vance saying, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” I’d steal the old Ronald Reagan line because I think most voters would say, “You know what, no, I’m not.”

Zac Schultz:
You should switch to five years ago because then we get before the COVID argument.

Scot Ross:
You know. Well, I was going to say for Wisconsin’s sake, you know, I saw the Department of Labor, or sorry, Department of Workforce Development released today, you know, nine of 12 of the major metropolitan areas in the state of Wisconsin the unemployment rate went down or stayed the same. That’s a pretty good that’s pretty good for a swing state like Wisconsin, 23 of the 34 biggest cities. [Editor’s note: A Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development report released on Aug. 21 indicated “preliminary July 2024 unemployment rates decreased or stayed the same in 24 of Wisconsin’s 35 largest cities over the month.”] You know, that’s a good thing for Wisconsin, and that’s a good thing for Kamala Harris.

Bill McCoshen:
I think we’re in a unique scenario here, where the governor I worked for, Tommy Thompson, we always bragged about these economic numbers, too, but voters felt it, right? The difference is, or the disconnect is voters don’t feel, if there are good numbers out there on the economy, voters aren’t feeling it, and that’s going to be reflected at the ballot box.

Scot Ross:
I think they’ve felt that their child care was, they were having support with their child care, with internet broadband. You know, I think that they felt that, and now they’re feeling that it’s gone because Republicans have stood in the way of helping people because they want to give tax

Bill McCoshen:
Democrats have had the White House for 12 of the last 16 years

Scot Ross:
It does not matter because

Bill McCoshen:
They want to be the change

Scot Ross:
There is an intractable Republican majority that started when Barack Obama took the oath on Jan. 20, 2009 that Republicans were going to say no to everything in the midst of whatever crises there were. We were in the midst of a near second Great Depression, and Republicans said, “Absolutely not. We’re not going to work with you” because Mitch McConnell said, “our idea is we want to make sure that Barack Obama doesn’t have a second term.” Well, he had a second term, and you would argue he had a third term with Joe Biden.

Bill McCoshen:
Oh, he absolutely did.

Scot Ross:
And now we’re going to have Kamala Harris.

Bill McCoshen:
Yeah.

Zac Schultz:
I did notice when you talked about the economic development, you put Kamala Harris above Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. Is

Scot Ross:
I just, you know what, as somebody who’s

Bill McCoshen:
We will, from now on. He’s gone, he’s on the beach in California

Scot Ross:
Somebody whose name, who’s towards the end of the alphabet, I like to switch it up the order of things once in a while, so Harris is before Biden. Biden always gets to be at the top alphabetically.

Bill McCoshen:
We’ll see how much she mentions him tomorrow night. She’s trying to erase him from this campaign.

Zac Schultz:
You don’t think there’ll be a, “Thank you, Joe,” at the beginning?

Scot Ross:
She has been

Bill McCoshen:
Should be.

Scot Ross:
She has

Bill McCoshen:
That’d be the right thing to do.

Scot Ross:
Through all the storm has been the most loyal soldier that you possibly could be, which is why he came out when people were saying, “OK, is this going to be an open deal?” He’s like, “Nope, this is my vice president. This should be the next president.”

Bill McCoshen:
And that ended it.

Scot Ross:
Democrat

Bill McCoshen:
It did.

Scot Ross:
Yeah, and Democrats, the unity for Democrats is at an all-time high.

Zac Schultz:
So, I want to look at the national picture because the Center for Politics put out their most recent Crystal Ball. They moved the state of North Carolina to toss-up. That makes seven toss-up states, including three in the Midwest, the big, the blue wall with Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. There are no lean states across the country in their eyes. It’s either you are solid red, or solid blue, or you are a toss-up. What does that tell us about where this country is in this election?

Scot Ross:
Well, you know, a very wise person once said, “Governance is about, or, campaigns are about dividing people.” Break off 50% plus one. Governance is about to be, is supposed to be about bringing people together, and when we have a new president in Kamala Harris, a new vice president Tim Walz, they will make that effort. That will happen. It will be up, you know, maybe the chastising that America is going to give the Republicans in this election will wake them up a little bit to it. I don’t know if the media ecosystem on the right is going to allow it to happen, but you know what? Stranger things have happened, and I want to always and again, this is a campaign about joy and hope. I’m going to hope for the best.

Bill McCoshen:
The one thing that’ll bring all seven of those states in the Trump column is a great economic message. I think we’ve seen since Kamala Harris started to roll out her economic plan last Friday her numbers have gone down both on polling across the nation and on the betting markets. I think people are saying, “Boy, that’s a lot more liberal than I thought she was.” And I think the more they get to know her and what her economic plan is, that’s Donald Trump and JD Vance’s path to get those seven states in the win column.

Zac Schultz:
But in that same time span, there have been more of these states moving to toss-up.

Scot Ross:
And part and

Bill McCoshen:
And I’m okay with that. I think it forces us to work harder in those states. I don’t want to take anything for granted. I want to earn the White House. I think that’s the best way to ensure that you can actually get things done and govern once you’re there. So, I don’t have any problem with seven states being in play right now, including Wisconsin. I think we’re going to see Donald Trump at least four times in the next 75 days. I think we’re going to see JD Vance once a week until this is over.

Zac Schultz:
He already said he lives here.

Scot Ross:
Well, and, but part of the reason that seven states are there is because Kamala Harris has enjoyed a 14-point bump with Latino voters. You know, again the great Democratic coalition that helps Democrats win in national elections, Black women are beyond, beyond joy that finally someone like them is going to be reflected in the presidency, and that’s why there’s so much enthusiasm, and you heard it, you hear it when that’s referenced during the conventions last night. It is why Michelle Obama received such an extraordinary reception last night, and again, that’s the coalition that helps put Democrats over the top. And I, again, I think it’s a successful I think it’s going to be a successful project.

Zac Schultz:
All right, I want to switch to Wisconsin and congressional districts. We got through the 3rd yesterday.

Bill McCoshen:
Yup.

Zac Schultz:
It was a little messy, as that race appears to be, but there’s two more that are at least worth mentioning.

Bill McCoshen:
Right.

Zac Schultz:
We could start on the 1st, where Bryan Steil is an incumbent. It’s a solid red district, or it has been, but with the changes that are going on in the suburbs, Democrats are looking at it. Peter Barca is a former Dem member of Congress. He’s been long-standing politician. Is he doing the work? Because we haven’t seen him down here, and we’re not that far away. Is he pounding the doors in Kenosha right now?

Scot Ross:
Well, if it’s by any, if Peter Barca’s work is any, is reflected by his email communications, the guy’s working harder than anybody because I get emails from him every single day. He’s obviously he was the fundraiser for the Assembly Democrats, who did very well in fundraising while even being in the minority under Scott Walker and Robin Vos. So, he’s definitely doing the work. People know him there. He’s a good solid guy. You know, I do think that for many, many years, the 1st Congressional District has been kind of a shame for Democrats because there hasn’t been the going after, you know? Paul Ryan had a free ride basically for 20 years. Bryan Steil’s had a free ride for most of his, most of his short, undistinguished career. And so, yeah, so I think Peter’s going to do very, very well on Election Day, and that is a much more Democratic seat than some of the others.

Bill McCoshen:
It’s a plus-four Republican seat. Steil has won handily in each of his reelections. He has more than $4 million in the bank. He’s got Speaker Mike Johnson coming to Lake Geneva for an event for him on Monday night. I think Bryan, I don’t believe that seat’s going to be competitive, and I think Bryan Steil will handily win reelection.

Zac Schultz:
Even today, speaking to the Wisconsin delegation, Congressman Mark Pocan, a pretty very liberal Democrat, said, “Bryan Steil’s a good guy.”

Bill McCoshen:
Yeah.

Zac Schultz:
He said he’s like Jell-O in that he doesn’t have much of a flavor by himself, which was, I guess, better than his description of Van Orden, but it does say something about how that, the staying power. You talk about Paul Ryan, you talk about Bryan Steil, it’s like they are solid middle of the ranks

Bill McCoshen:
Bryan Steil works hard. He’s in every corner of the district. He shows up, he flips pancakes, henpours beers, or whatever it takes, and people give him credit for that from Kenosha to Janesville.

Scot Ross:
Bryan Steil was, you know, Paul Ryan’s chauffeur, and he’s an errand boy for the extreme right wing and the corruption that’s in the House Republicans. I mean, this is a guy who is in charge and could release the video of fellow Republican Derrick Van Orden attacking teenage pages in the Capitol. He has refused to release the video of that. When it happened to a Democrat, when a Democrat pulled a fire alarm, that video is out in two weeks.

Zac Schultz:
All right, let’s move to the 8th.

Scot Ross:
Yeah.

Zac Schultz:
It’s an open seat, which is probably the only reason we’re talking about it, and it’s got a Trump appointed Tony Wied that really no one knows

Bill McCoshen:
Trump endorsed.

Zac Schultz:
So, Trump, yeah, sorry, Trump endorsed, which kind of gave him the appointment in winning that primary, but what do you think of Kristin Lyerly? What do you think of her chances of making this a real race?

Scot Ross:
It is a real race because of Kristin Lyerly. This is a woman who travels to Minnesota because of the abortion ban in Wisconsin to assist women in accessing their reproductive freedoms. She also does it in Arizona as well on Native American land. This is a woman who is a doctor who cares about the district and she outraised all three of the Republicans who were running in the race. You put abortion on the ballot, she’s somebody who can win. The other thing is who came out, you know, who came out of the primary? The 8th Congressional District, for all the criticisms I’ve made of Reid Ribble and Mike Gallagher, and even going back before that, there’s one thing that’s tied all the members of Congress from Green Bay, and it’s flipped back and forth. It’s the flippiest. They’ve all been moderates, every single one of them.

Zac Schultz:
Is Tony Wied going to be able to run on that, or is he just the Trump brand?

Bill McCoshen:
Well, let’s start with the numbers in the seat, and I’ll remind your viewers from yesterday that congressional lines did not change. They’re the same as they were. This is a plus-10 GOP seat. Tony Wied is the heavy favorite in this seat for this reason. Yeah, he got Trump’s endorsement, and he ended up distinguishing, or extinguishing, two pretty credible primary opponents in state Sen. Andre Jacque and former Senate President Roger Roth, who also was the nominee for lieutenant governor just two years ago. So, beating those two guys was no small feat. It took more than the Trump endorsement. I think the appeal to him is he’s literally an outsider, and I think there’s a lot of voters who have said, “Enough with politics, let’s bring in some fresh blood,” and I think Tony Wied fits that bill.

Zac Schultz:
All right, we have just a few seconds left. How much does Harris need to win the state by in order to pull Kristin Lyerly across in the 8th?

Scot Ross:
Point and a half.

Zac Schultz:
That small?

Scot Ross:
Yup.

Zac Schultz:
What do you think?

Bill McCoshen:
She’d need to win it by four and that won’t happen.

Zac Schultz:
All right, we have more time tomorrow. We have more to talk about. Thank you both for being here, appreciate it.

Scot Ross:
Great to be here.

Zac Schultz:
All right, we’ll leave it there. Thank you for watching this special presentation of Here & Now’s 2024 election coverage. Be sure to come back tomorrow. You’ll find us here each day this week, and tune into PBS evening coverage of the convention, where Here & Now will have another update on the day’s events. And finally, join us on Friday to wrap up the week with a special one-hour presentation of Here & Now starting at 7:00 p.m. I’m Zac Schultz, thanks so much for watching. We’ll see you here tomorrow.