Here & Now

Wisconsinites Weigh In on Budget, 2020 Politics

Frederica Freyberg:
Now to the Marquette poll and the poll’s director, Charles Franklin. Thanks for being here.

Charles Franklin:
Thank you. Good to be here.

Frederica Freyberg:
Jumping right in with the lay of the land of public perception on the national level, Donald Trump. Your polling shows 46% approve of Donald Trump, while 52% disapprove in Wisconsin. Pretty consistently upside down in this state considering he won it.

Charles Franklin:
That’s right. He has been under water more disapproval than approval in all of our polling. This was a two point rise in his approval rating from January, 44, now 46. But remember in January, we were at the end of the government shutdown which had hurt his approval ratings nationally. I think there’s very little change here. But perhaps a slight bump up.

Frederica Freyberg:
The Mueller Report helps him, you think?

Charles Franklin:
It seems to in some ways. If you look at what people think of the Mueller Report that we know of at this point, not having seen the whole thing. People accept that Russia interfered with the election. 60% think that. A majority, over 50%, accept the conclusion that Trump did not interfere. But it’s dead even divided 45/45 on whether Trump tried to interfere with the investigation. So there’s been some movement that seems to be in the direction of the conclusions of the report but it doesn’t settle all dispute.

Frederica Freyberg:
Since we haven’t seen it. Looking ahead to 2020, the top three favorite opposing candidate on part of Dems polled are Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. Now Bernie Sanders did win Wisconsin primary voters in 2016. So he’s got staying power here?

Charles Franklin:
It seems like it at least this early in the race. That’s also a nine point increase in his support since January. Biden has dropped off three points since January. Elizabeth Warren, in third place, is up a couple of points. Everybody else at 11 or below. We asked about 12 candidates in total. So most of them are down in single digits. But also more than half of the public haven’t heard enough to have an opinion about many of these candidate. That’ll resolve itself over the rest of the spring and the summer.

Frederica Freyberg:
On state issues, legalizing marijuana both recreation but especially medical, proves to have super strong support. Is this one of those issues that has changed quickly over time?

Charles Franklin:
It has changed, as recent as five or six years ago. Support for legalization in general was down in the low 40s, maybe the high 30s. It’s been moving up steadily and now at 59%, really quite a substantial majority. But medical marijuana at 83% is just enormous. That’s one that Democrats, Republicans and independents alike are all quite willing to legalize. It’s where I think public opinion has moved ahead of elected officials who are still reluctant to go there but public opinion is already there.

Frederica Freyberg:
On Medicaid expansion in Wisconsin, 70% support it. Does that number surprise you?

Charles Franklin:
We’ve asked it several times since the Affordable Care Act was passed and it’s had support above 50%, and often in the 60s. 70 is a little high. But unlike marijuana measure, this is one where partisan differences are stronger. Republicans are still rooted in their opposition to Obamacare and therefore a majority of Republicans would not take the money, whereas a majority of independents and Democrats would. And it’s different on the marijuana case.

Frederica Freyberg:
And yet the 70% for the expansion is an overall survey of all respondents, not partisan?

Charles Franklin:
That’s exactly right. That’s everybody.

Frederica Freyberg:
On hiking the gas tax as Governor Evers is proposing, that is not a popular idea according to your polling?

Charles Franklin:
And it never has been. We’ve asked about it multiple times over the last six years. People are complaining about the roads and they say it’s an important issue but when faced with paying for it through the gas tax, we’ve never had a poll where more people would say yes, I would pay for that to fix the roads, to work on the roads. That’s in contrast to public school funding where people moved from preferring lower property taxes to now preferring more school spending. But on the gas tax and roads, that movement has not taken place.

Frederica Freyberg:
Hence why this is such a vexing budget issue and has been for years in the state of Wisconsin.

Charles Franklin:
And it explains why we’ve just borrowed our way out of it for over eight years simple because there’s no easy solution that everybody’s lined up behind.

Frederica Freyberg:
Now with 52% of respondents saying Wisconsin is headed in the right track. Is this a good number for Tony Evers?

Charles Franklin:
It’s a pretty good number. It’s a good number for the state, that people are kind of positive. The one issue there is with divided government. If you think of the direction of the state as depending on government, you’re going to have Democrats that think Evers is going in the right direction, but the Republican Legislature is not and vice versa with Republicans. So it’s less clear now than it was a year ago when we had united government that you approved of the whole package. Now it’s less clear. I suspect it’ll flatten out between the two.

Frederica Freyberg:
Speaking of divided government and favorables, Tony Evers has a 48% favorable, 35% unfavorable in your poll. Does that number say much to you?

Charles Franklin:
It’s beginning to form opinions of him. His job approval numbers are very close to that as well. He’s got more people now willing to give an opinion of him than he did in January. In January, we saw people withholding judgment a little bit. He’d only been in office a week when we polled. Now more people are willing to give a judgment. He’s net positive which is good news for him. We’ll see how that shapes out over the rest of the budget cycle.

Frederica Freyberg:
All right. We leave it there, Charles Franklin, thank you.

Charles Franklin:
Thank you.