Here & Now

Virus Enters Near-Exponential Growth

Frederica Freyberg:

Latest case numbers in Wisconsin today show another 2500 people tested positive for COVID-19 and all 72 counting report high COVID activity. For more we check in with Chief Medical Officer in Wisconsin and State Epidemiologist Dr. Ryan Westergaard. Thanks very much for joining us.

Ryan Westergaard:

Hi, Frederica. Nice to be with you.

Frederica Freyberg:

How frightened should we be by these numbers?

Ryan Westergaard:

Well, I’m extremely concerned. More concerned than I’ve been throughout any point in the pandemic. The increase, meaning the trajectory of new cases, is steeper than it has ever been. We’re also starting to see an uptick in hospitalizations and severe disease. So this is about the most concerning picture that we’ve had.

Frederica Freyberg:

And now health officials like yourself are worried about what is around the bend as well.

Ryan Westergaard:

Well, respiratory virus season typically starts in the fall. It gets worse thru the winter and then resolves in the early spring. It’s a little different every year, but that is the pattern. So if we are now at what is generally the beginning of respiratory virus season: cold and flu season and COVID-19 virus behaves like other respiratory viruses, it could get a lot worse before it gets better unless we take some pretty aggressive actions.

Frederica Freyberg:

Like?

Ryan Westergaard:

Well, we saw how to flatten the curve in the spring. We started to have an increase in cases in April and May. Most states had some sort of a “stay at home” order and the epidemic curve responded. So we know widespread attention to social distancing works. We’re going to need to do that if our goal is to flatten the curve again and I think it should be.

Frederica Freyberg:

And yet what is at the governor’s disposal at this moment is a mask mandate. Is that correct?

Ryan Westergaard:

A mask mandate can be a helpful tool as well, but it’s one piece of a large puzzle in terms of prevention strategies. And if the political environment doesn’t support a “stay at home” order, it’s on everyone individually to take it on themselves to limit social contact as much as we can.

Frederica Freyberg:

Is that frustrating for you that there are political limits to that?

Ryan Westergaard:

Well, I think in public health we take the environment we have and the tools we have and we try to be as helpful as we can. So we’re working with the situation as we see fit and trying to do the best we can.

Frederica Freyberg:

I understand that the need is critical for more contact tracers. How close are we to coming up against surge capacity in other areas like hospital beds?

Ryan Westergaard:

Well, the hospital beds and ventilators seem to be in good supply. When we talk to health care leaders, the critical piece, what they say is that we might run out of staff, nurses, for example, who if they are exposed and need to quarantine can promote a real shortage of health care resources. So it’s not just bed availability. It’s also staffing. And so we need to plan ahead for, as you said, the potential surge and try to figure out how to make our resources work the best.

Frederica Freyberg:

Briefly here, doctor, we’re being told not just to distance, wear masks and wash our hands, but to stay home. Are we basically to self-quarantine in the midst of this wide community spread?

Ryan Westergaard:

Well, I think that the notion of quarantine has a specific meaning and I think it’s very important for people to understand that. That is, when you find out you’ve been exposed to somebody who’s been infected or diagnosed with COVID-19, a 14-day quarantine is essential. So it’s different than what we need in terms of widespread social distancing, which will have an overall effect on reducing the transmission but quarantine is something we probably need to talk about more and understand better as a key prevention strategy.

Frederica Freyberg:

We will talk to you next time. Dr. Ryan Westergaard, thanks very much.

Ryan Westergaard:

Thanks for the good questions.