Here & Now

Marquette Poll Finds Growing Trump Disapproval in Wisconsin

Frederica Freyberg:

A new Marquette Law School poll out this week shows what Wisconsin thinks of Donald Trump, health care law changes and Scott Walker and Tammy Baldwin. We get right to it now with the director of the poll, Charles Franklin. Thanks for being here.

Charles Franklin:

Thank you. Good to be here.

Frederica Freyberg:

So on President Donald Trump the first look we’re going to take, 51% of your respondents disapprove of what he’s been doing, 41% approve, 7% don’t know. Is he slipping or rising?

Charles Franklin:

His approval is exactly the same at 41 that it was three months ago in March. But the disapproval has risen four points from 47% to 51% and we still have a few more don’t knows than most national polling is showing. We’ve seen that in the national data as well, that the disapprove has moved up faster than approval has come down, as those initial undecided have begun to make up their mind.

Frederica Freyberg:

Now, the partisan divide is as strong as ever though, comparing who likes his work to who doesn’t. How is that expressed in your polling?

Charles Franklin:

It's at least as strong as ever. 85% of Republicans approve of the job he’s doing. For context, that’s about where Democrats were about President Obama at relatively high levels. So party loyalty. But what’s really jaw-dropping is on the Democratic side, only 3% of Democrats approve and 95% disapprove. That is worse for Democrats and Trump than it was for Republicans and Obama, where Republicans consistently gave Obama about a nine or ten-point approval rating.

Frederica Freyberg:

Also where in Wisconsin is Donald Trump’s approval rating the highest?

Charles Franklin:

He's especially strong in the Green Bay and Appleton area. That media market that contains the Green Bay and surrounding area. He’s over 50% approval there. The only area of the state that he’s solidly over 50%. But in the north and the west, Wausau and over to the Mississippi River and down a bit, he’s net positive in his evaluations. So those are areas that in most counties he did especially well in in the vote. And I think tellingly in the Milwaukee suburbs, he’s just slightly underwater. A little more disapproval than approval. In those suburbs Donald Trump won the area in November, but he did not do as well as Mitt Romney did. It looks like those suburbs have still some reservations.

Frederica Freyberg:

I want to jump ahead to the health care law and what people think of that in your survey. On the changing tides of the federal health care law, your survey shows 54% want to keep it and improve it, but 6% — 6% want to keep it as is, 27% repeal and replace, 7% repeal and not replace. Tell me what you make of these numbers.

Charles Franklin:

Well, the two ends are about the same, keep it as it is or throw the whole thing out. But if you look in that middle, twice as many would keep and improve as opposed to the 27% that would repeal and replace. That really raises a question of what kind of changes to the law are really repealing and replacing and what changes to the law are really just incremental changes and improvements. Clearly the public is very concerned, though, about dumping the law altogether. We asked and people thought fewer people would be covered and it would cost more for a replacement. So people are skittish about a replacement.

Frederica Freyberg:

So it makes it pretty difficult for the Republicans in Washington who are moving ahead on this.

Charles Franklin:

It does. But Republicans in the state are quite in favor of either repeal and replace or outright repeal. So the Republican base still favors something like repeal.

Frederica Freyberg:

I got to buzz right through these now with our time constraints. On Scott Walker, it’s the perfect partisan divide. Governor Walker comes in with an even 48% approval, 48 disapproval. How has this changed?

Charles Franklin:

He's been creeping up since January of 2015 when his approval rating really crashed into the 30s and stayed there for most of that time. He has steadily edged up over the last year or so and this is his best showing since the week before he was re-elected.

Frederica Freyberg:

On Tammy Baldwin, your numbers show that she also gets an even split, favorable to unfavorable. That’s a slip from your last poll.

Charles Franklin:

It's a small slip. It’s just a couple of points on each side. But it’s — as we see with her and, for that matter, with Senator Johnson and Paul Ryan, fairly even distributions of opinion that haven’t trended sharply up or down. Unlike the governor’s approval rating, which has been trending up so steadily for the last year.

Frederica Freyberg:

Finally, on the state budget with the Republican majority at a seeming kind of impasse over it, you surveyed respondents about their state budget spending priorities. 37% on K-12 schools, 25% health coverage and 23% roads. Interestingly to me, you also found that 61% would be willing to pay higher taxes on these priority items while 35% would not.

Charles Franklin:

And these items are the most important out of six items that we gave them as options. But interestingly for those on K-12 education, the top priority, 75% said they were willing to pay more. When we drop down to health care it’s in the 50s. When we drop down to roads, it’s actually a 48% would pay, 51% would not pay more, even though those are people that picked roads as their top priority. So the same struggles the legislature and the governor are having between paying for something but wanting it, is also reflected in public opinion on this.

Frederica Freyberg:

Interesting. Charles Franklin, thanks very much for your work.

Charles Franklin:

Thank you.