Here & Now

Political Science Prof. on outgoing U.S. Rep. Sean Duffy

Frederica Freyberg:

In major election news in Wisconsin, Republican Congressman Sean Duffy announced this week he is stepping down effective September 23. Duffy made his announcement in a Facebook post saying, in part, “Recently we have learned that our baby, due in late October, will need even more love, time and attention due to complications, including a heart condition. With much prayer,” he says, “I have decided that this is the right time for me to take a break from public service in order to be the support my wife, baby and family need right now.” Duffy was first elected to represent Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District in 2010. He became a staunch supporter of President Donald Trump. In tonight’s closer look, we check in with UW-Superior Political Science Professor Alisa Von Hagel to discuss the implications. Thanks very much for being here.

Alisa Von Hagel:

Thank you for having me.

Frederica Freyberg:

Of course, the circumstances of Congressman Duffy’s departure are difficult for him personally, but you believe it’s part of a trend. How so?

Alisa Von Hagel:

So you see that prior to the 2018 midterm elections and following the midterm elections, there’s been a wave of Republicans resigning, retiring, leaving office or declaring that they will not seek public office again in the future. And so part of this is just their looking to the future, seeing — or at least in 2018, leading up to the midterms, there wasn’t obviously high hopes for the Republicans to hold onto the majority in the House. And so being in the minority and sort of seeing that vision of being in the minority in the future is not fun for legislators or is not something that allows them to really accomplish the goals that they set out to do. So you just see a wave of Republicans across the country that have been resigning or retiring since then.

Frederica Freyberg:

Do you feel as though the turbulence of the Trump administration has anything to do with the Republican kind of mini exodus?

Alisa Von Hagel:

It certainly has played a role, no doubt. Even those who are staunch allies of the president or support the administration’s agenda, you know, there’s just always a controversy or some gaffe, something that happens, and legislators are often hounded by news reporters to be asked about the latest tweet or whatnot. And it’s just a lot of more tension, more conflict they have to deal with, even if they are still very supportive of the president and his goals.

Frederica Freyberg:

The first thought many had on hearing that Sean Duffy was resigning was he’d be throwing his hat in the ring for U.S. Senate or even governor. What’s your sense of that?

Alisa Von Hagel:

Yeah. That speculation was — has been made even before this resignation at this time. He was — there was talk of him running for — challenging Tammy Baldwin in 2018 for her seat, but it was sort of determined that her support was just too strong in the state and it wouldn’t be worth it. There’s talk of him running for Ron Johnson’s seat in the future. And whether or not this time off will help or hinder his ability to do that, he left office with about $2.4 million in his war chest, which doesn’t seems like — which seems like a lot of money, certainly, but — at least to myself, but it is for — running for public office, especially running for Senate at that level of office is really not nowhere near enough to really start making a solid run towards that office. And so it’s hard to say. It’s hard to say.

Frederica Freyberg:

What kind of scrum do you expect there to be as potential candidates to replace him line up to jump into the race?

Alisa Von Hagel:

There have been a number of candidates, state reps that have already been throwing their hat into the ring. I’ve heard names: Janet Bewley, even Nick Milroy who are Democrats in the area. Tom Tiffany is a Republican that right away I think jumped into the race, or that at least stated his intention in running. And so there will no doubt be more and more candidates coming forward as we have the special election date established and we get closer leading up to that date.

Frederica Freyberg:

Now, Sean Duffy won that district by 20 percentage points last year, the same margin President Trump won it by in 2016. So is it a super solid Republican district following redistricting?

Alisa Von Hagel:

Well, you know, it’s hard to say. So the district has certainly moved to a more conservative bent since Sean Duffy has been in office, and despite that, when he resigned, the day after he resigned, the district in The Cook’s Political Report was classified as solidly Republican, was transferred to leaning Republican. And so there’s already signs that given the larger nationwide trends of the controversy with the administration, with the continued presence of the Democratic majority in Congress that this may not be a good upcoming year for Republicans. And so it certainly is going to be a tough battle for whoever decides to run.

Frederica Freyberg:

Okay. Might be in play. Alisa Von Hagel, thanks very much.

Alisa Von Hagel:

Thank you very much.