Here & Now

Political Panelists Give Forecasts of Super Tuesday

Frederica Freyberg:

It’s the March madness of the presidential primary race. As we mentioned, Super Tuesday is next week. That’s when 14 states, including our neighbors in Minnesota, put well over 1,000 delegates on the line. It can be either a game-changer or a deal-breaker for Democrats running to be their party’s nominee for president. Our political panelists of course already know exactly what will happen and that’s why we invited Bill McCoshen and Scot Ross on the show tonight to take a look ahead to Super Tuesday. And thank you for being here.

Bill McCoshen:

Thanks for having us.

Scot Ross:

We’re supposed to be lowering expectations. That’s the first rule of politics so you’re bound to succeed.

Bill McCoshen:

Primaries are all about expectations. You gotta lower them.

Frederica Freyberg:

You first, Scot. Prediction on first South Carolina and then Super Tuesday.

Scot Ross:

I think Vice President Biden takes South Carolina. It think it will be tighter than we had expected it to be given that that was such a firewall for him. And then on Super Tuesday, again, like you said, 1300 delegates, 40% of them out. I think it’s not unrealistic that Senator Sanders takes 40% of those delegates. I think a couple things are going to happen after that. I think Pete and Amy are going to have to decide whether they can go on. I think it’s going to be a tough road for Elizabeth Warren if she doesn’t make some progress. Bloomberg can obviously spend all of his money until the end. So it’s going to be interesting to see what happens.

Frederica Freyberg:

Bill?

Bill McCoshen:

So primary is about expectations, right? Biden is expected to win tomorrow. But the size of the victory is going to matter. If he wins by two, three, four points, he might as well lose. He’s going to need a double-digit victory in South Carolina to hopefully get any momentum out of that but I think it’s ultimately going to be a pyrrhic victory for him. He went all in on South Carolina. He left New Hampshire early to get to South Carolina to begin this. I don’t see his path on Super Tuesday. There’s 14 states up. He’s not leading in any of them. If he gets a small bump on Saturday night, can that really catapult him onto Sunday or Super Tuesday? I don’t see it. I think this is Bernie’s race to lose.

Frederica Freyberg:

No withstanding all of that, do we foresee a brokered convention?

Bill McCoshen:

We may. I mean Michael Bloomberg has spent the most in the Super Tuesday states. That’s the first day he’s going to be on the ballot in any of these states. He’s spent tens of millions of dollars. Bernie Sanders has spent the second most. Amy Klobuchar, believe it or not, has spent the third most in the Super Tuesday states. Biden is four times less than Amy Klobuchar on those states. I’m with Scot. I don’t know how Amy or Elizabeth or even Pete go on after Tuesday. And frankly, if Biden doesn’t win half of those 14 states, I think he’s done too.

Frederica Freyberg:

Brokered though?

Scot Ross:

Absolutely not. I mean the Democrats will make the decision and whoever it is will go on to defeat Donald Trump. That’s the good news. All the leading Democrats can defeat Donald Trump because this election’s going to be a referendum on him.

Frederica Freyberg:

At this point, is it true that the Democrats really do not like Bernie Sanders?

Scot Ross:

No, I don’t think so. I think there are people who have hard feelings about 2016. But listen. This is a primary with a lot of people in it. I’ve been in primaries. Bill, you’ve worked on primaries. They can be nasty fights. The most important thing is do you come together at the end. I think all signals are Democrats will reunite at the end because they want to defeat Donald Trump.

Frederica Freyberg:

Do you think it’s real, Scot, that Bernie Sanders might pick Tammy Baldwin as his running mate?

Scot Ross:

I think it would be an excellent choice for whoever is the nominee to nominate Senator Baldwin. She hasn’t lost. Wisconsin is going to decide this election. And she’s a terrific, terrific politician and a terrific senator. It would be an absolute win for the ticket.

Bill McCoshen:

I don’t think it’s out of the question. I don’t. She fits the bill. She’s progressive. She’s done exceptionally well here in Wisconsin. This is going to be a crucial state. I think she has appeal in Minnesota, Iowa and Michigan. I wouldn’t rule her out as a possibility, that’s for sure.

Frederica Freyberg:

Is it true that the Republicans most fear Bloomberg?

Bill McCoshen:

I think they fear a centrist and that doesn’t appear to be the direction the Democrats are going unless they can find a way to coalesce either around Biden and save his campaign or around Bloomberg which was fatally hurt during the Nevada debate. That might turn out to be the biggest tactical mistake of any campaign this cycle, was putting him in a position to get slaughtered. I would have never done that.

Scot Ross:

And who prosecuted that? Elizabeth Warren.

Frederica Freyberg:

So what happened to Elizabeth Warren in all of this?

Scot Ross:

I think there are a lot of folks who are in financial industry who know that Elizabeth Warren could take them apart piece by piece if she is the president of the United States. She knows what she is doing. I think there’s a part of it. I also think sexism. I worked for several women who ran for statewide office only 15 years ago and sexism was rampant. I think that absolutely plays into it.

Frederica Freyberg:

You think that’s what it’s about with Elizabeth Warren?

Bill McCoshen:

I think she lacks authenticity. She hit her ceiling back in October when she was in the lead in lot of national polls. She’s progressively dropped since then. I don’t see a path for her and she’s not going to get any wins either tomorrow in South Carolina or on Super Tuesday.

Frederica Freyberg:

We will be watching. Thanks to both of you.

Bill McCoshen:

You bet.

Scot Ross:

Thank you.