Here & Now

A Partisan Look at Wisconsin's 2022 Primaries and Incumbents

Frederica Freyberg:

Now for a straight-up partisan look at upcoming elections, we turn to our political panelists: Republican Bill McCoshen and Democrat Scot Ross. Thank you both very much for being here. Nice to see you. But Scot, first to you. How does the issue of abortion access play into voters’ decisions in Wisconsin where a standing law on the books criminalizing abortion couldn’t be vetoed by the governor in any case?

Scot Ross:

Yeah, but it’s also why it’s so important that we re-elect Governor Tony Evers because he has been a strong advocate for reproductive freedom for women. He has vetoed nine separate attacks on reproductive freedom that would punish women, that would punish doctors that have been passed by both chambers of the legislature. And remember, the Republican position is – that they’ve staked out – is anathema to what the people want. Over 60% of people support the access to reproductive rights. Only, I think, 11% support what Kleefisch, what Michels, what the Republicans are saying, which is no exceptions for rape and incest. That’s just devastating.

Frederica Freyberg:

Bill, how does abortion play into voters’ decisions at the polls?

Bill McCoshen:

Well, it shifts it from a federal issue to a state issue. So candidates running for the state assembly, state senate, are now going to have to answer that question – what’s your position on abortion, because states will have the ability to modify laws. Wisconsin has an 1849 law on the books. So it’ll — they’ll get asked about that on the campaign trail no question about it. So abortion never used to be a primary issue in general elections. It always has been at least on the Republican side in primaries but now it’s going to be a general election issue for legislative races.

Frederica Freyberg:

As for who’s going to get out and vote, the latest Marquette Law School Poll has Republican voters significantly more enthusiastic to vote than Democrats. So, Scot, to you, what is dragging down the Democrats’ enthusiasm?

Scot Ross:

I think it’s a couple thing. One, we still have a hangover from the pandemic. And Democrats are in charge. Democrats have the governor’s office here and Democrats have control of the governor’s — or the presidency and both chambers of Congress. It’s not a necessarily functional majority. But that’s the problem. You have it. You own it. And that’s why Democrats have to make sure they are articulating these contrasts between the Republicans like we just talked about, abortion.

Frederica Freyberg:

Bill, why are Republicans more pumped in your mind?

Bill McCoshen:

Im going to steal a line from James Carville, the campaign consultant to Bill Clinton in 1992. It’s the economy, stupid. And that’s what’s dragging down Democrats. Republicans are fired up about inflation. It’s at a 41-year high. Gas prices are at the highest any of us can remember in our lifetime. Those are kitchen table issues, Fred, that people talk about day in and day out. And that’s what’s motivating Republicans. They want to see a change. And that environment – we’ll get to that later a little bit later – is going to ultimately help Ron Johnson.

Frederica Freyberg:

I was going to follow up on that. Scot, does Biden own inflation?

Scot Ross:

It’s a tough one because I don’t think a Republican can tell you what they would do to solve it other than tax breaks to rich people because that’s the only elixir they ever have. Oh wait, attacking workers’ rights, that’s the other thing. And that’s not going to solve it. Nobody is talking about what they actually would do. Here’s the thing. Democrats — if the campaign talks about abortion, healthcare, and guns, Democrats will do very well. It’s a little more challenging because of inflation and you know, if it talks about inflation, because Biden is the president and it is challenging.

Frederica Freyberg:

Let’s talk about Republican U.S. Senator Ron Johnson. His favorability as we know is way upside down right now in that latest poll. Plus, can someone offer up false electors to the vice president of the United States and get re-elected? I’m asking Bill this first, because he’s your party’s candidate.

Bill McCoshen:

Yeah, let me start with the second part of that. I think that I wouldn’t worry too much about his favorable/unfavorable. I think the environment certainly helps him. Starting with the economy. Starting with how people you know, there are more layoffs coming. People are losing more of their paychecks because inflation is sucking up more of their hard-earned dollars. So those things are ultimately going to work for Johnson, regardless of who his opponent is. On your last point, you know, Ron Johnson has said that he had nothing to do with what happened on January 6th. I’ll take him at his word. He said it was staff to staff. That’s all the evidence we have so far, is that it was staff to staff. So we’ll see if anything else comes to light over the next several weeks.

Scot Ross:

Yeah, please. Ron Johnson wants us to believe that he had a package delivered to the vice president of the United States because a house intern told him to do it. With people like Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Greene and you know, Josh Hawley, in the Senate, sometimes you say, too stupid to be in Congress but I think in this case, we might be there unless Ron Johnson is lying, the guy who said he wouldn’t run for a third term and the guy who said — gave his donors huge tax breaks. WE have — that guy might be lying.

Frederica Freyberg:

So Bill, just back to that, I mean, what does that look like for his base? That he — his staff, he says he didn’t know about it. But it’s right there on the screen in the committee hearing where they want to hand this package to the vice president. Does that fire up his base?

Bill McCoshen:

His base is fired up. If you went to the state convention a month ago in Middleton, the most popular guy in that building was Ron Johnson. There is no question about that. The Republican base loves him. And he will have their full support throughout this campaign. To win he’s going to need independents as well. And so I mean, that would be the group that Id be worried about, how they feel about all this. But will they accept his explanation or will they look for more? We’ll see. But his base is rock solid.

Scot Ross:

Ron Johnson is the leader of the Republican Party Wisconsin. And he is losing to his opponents. Tony Evers, on the other hand, is beating all of his opponents. Democrats have challenges but, like, our people are ahead in the polls.

Frederica Freyberg:

Just by this much and then that enthusiasm comes in. But meanwhile, in this race for governor, Tim Michels has now overtaken, just barely, Rebecca Kleefisch. Bill, who’s your candidate here?

Bill McCoshen:

The momentum in this race right now is on Michael’s side. He’s got the resources to come out swinging on August 10th after he wins this primary. So you know, if Im the Michels campaign, Im not taking anything for granted. Rebecca Kleefisch works her tail off. She’s invested a lot in this race. And she’s not going to go down without a fight. So this final 45 days will sort of be the contrast phase of that race and I expect there to be some jabs going back and forth. But if you’re placing a bet today, Id place it on Michels because he’s got the momentum.

Frederica Freyberg:

Scot, what do you think about these candidates?

Scot Ross:

Well, they’re all jumping over each other to be as divisive as possible. Meanwhile you’ve got Governor Evers who spent the last three years doing what’s right for Wisconsin to move us forward. We’re better and we are stronger than we were when he took office. And he continues to try and work with the Republican Legislature. Not working so well but he’s talking to Republican voters at the same time about that who may be having trouble with where their party has gone, because it’s gone off the deep end. And you want to talk about where the Republicans are at this point in time? You know, think about one of the biggest challenges facing the country. Gas prices, right? Where are we at with gas prices? Republicans say it’s a big problem for Democrats. The fact is Republicans are in the pocket of big oil.

Frederica Freyberg:

I want to give the final word, 30 seconds, to Bill. Go ahead.

Bill McCoshen:

Yeah, let’s go back to Governor Evers. He’s like Mr. Rogers. He’s a likable guy. He’s not polarizing. That is a brand that works for him but history is working against him. Tommy Thompson is the only governor who has won re-election when his party controlled the White House. That was in 1990. I was the communications director on that campaign. Plus the political environment, ultimately, there’s political gravity that will play in here. Right track, wrong direction, is upside down by 20 points. Yes, Evers numbers are good. He’s not going to be easy to beat but history is not on his side.

Frederica Freyberg:

We leave it there. Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross, thank you both very much. We’ll have you back soon.