Here & Now

Mike Welvaert on the Spring 2023 Mississippi River Flooding

Frederica Freyberg:

Flood warnings in Wisconsin, especially along the Mississippi River have forecasters looking at record high water. In La Crosse, the Mississippi is expected to rise to a crest of nearly 16 feet by Monday evening. Flood stage is 12 feet. The National Weather Service describes this as major flooding likely to involve extensive inundation of roads, structures, and/or significant evacuation efforts. With this flooding forecast, the city fire department is asking residents to prepare along the Mississippi, the La Crosse and Black Rivers. Sand is being given out for filling sandbags and residents are being told to make an emergency plan. The governor’s state of emergency activates the Wisconsin National Guard with the state patrol recommending against travel in high water areas. Here to detail the threat, Mike Welvaert from the National Weather Service, who joins us from Chanhassen, Minnesota. Mike, thanks a lot for being here.

Mike Welvaert:

It’s my pleasure.

Frederica Freyberg:

So what’s the latest along the Mississippi River for Wisconsin cities and towns right now?

Mike Welvaert:

All the snow that we had this winter rapidly melted when we had those warm temperatures a week or so ago and then, of course, we’ve added a bunch of rain on top of that now. So all that water is working its way through the tributaries and down into the main stem of the Mississippi River and that water is progressing its way downstream. The river is close to cresting up here in the Twin Cities area over the next few days and will be sending that downstream along the Minnesota-Wisconsin border down to the La Crosse area by the middle of next week.

Frederica Freyberg:

That’s what’s going to be happening over the weekend is that the river will be rising farther toward that crest in the La Crosse and other towns and cities along the Wisconsin border there?

Mike Welvaert:

Yes, that’s correct.

Frederica Freyberg:

What will the flooding look like for homeowners and travelers and business owners?

Mike Welvaert:

Well, this flooding that we’re expecting this year, you know, the Mississippi does experience flooding many years, but this year in particular, the water levels are quite a bit higher than we usually see. As a matter of fact, it’s looking right now like we’re going to see crests somewhere near what happened in 2001, maybe 1969, some of the really big flood years that we had. So it’s looking like a top two or a top three crest along the Mississippi River through that area.

Frederica Freyberg:

How dangerous is this, then?

Mike Welvaert:

It’s pretty dangerous. If you’re going to be near the river or you have any kind of activities that take you near the river, be sure to heed and follow any directions regarding closures, what local officials might be saying as far as whether you should go into those areas or not. It may not look like a big deal, but with that much water, it is really moving at a pretty good clip. It could sweep you off your feet and you could be downstream before you know it. The other thing is you don’t know what kind of debris are in the water. Right now, we’re seeing a lot of reports of large trees and things like that coming downriver. In addition to, unfortunately, people’s docks and other types of debris that have floated away from them, so there’s a lot of debris in the water, and if you were to get caught in any of that, it could be very dangerous.

Frederica Freyberg:

The National Weather Service, as we mentioned, suggests that this kind of flooding involves extensive inundation of roads and structures but also potentially significant evacuation efforts. Is that something that was seen with these kinds of river levels previously?

Mike Welvaert:

Yeah. In the past where we’ve had these higher-level floods like this, there are some low areas along the river, all up and down the Mississippi and on both sides of the river where low areas tend to flood out first. And the folks that live in those areas are probably aware of that but is the time to be taking those precautions if you haven’t already because with water levels this high, we haven’t seen this in over 20 years at least, for many of these locations. So you need to take those preparations and get those done sooner rather than later. If you’re in an area that happens to get stranded, so you’ll be locked out, you should probably have a plan to know what you can do if you are isolated due to high water. Consider evacuations if they’re ordered by your local officials.

Frederica Freyberg:

So the entire state of Wisconsin is under a state of emergency for flooding. What other areas are of greatest concern?

Mike Welvaert:

Right now, the worst of the flooding is really expected along the Mississippi River itself. However, with all the recent snow and rain events that we’ve had, a lot of the rivers are running quite high at the moment. I know the Wisconsin River has been quite high for several weeks now. I know there’s been some significant flooding around the Portage area, working its way down the Wisconsin River. So anywhere we see any additional precipitation over the coming weeks, we need to pay attention. Ground is pretty wet. Any rainfall is going to add to a flood risk.

Frederica Freyberg:

What kind of additional precipitation might you be forecasting?

Mike Welvaert:

Right now, thankfully, it’s looking like we’re going to see maybe some light precipitation over the next — well, today and into tomorrow, perhaps, before this storm system we’re currently looking at pulls out of the area. But beyond that, we’re not looking at anything real significant for at least seven or eight days, so that’s good. We need the time to allow this water to work its way through the system.

Frederica Freyberg:

I read on the National Weather Service website that we should expect flooding to last several weeks, and so rivers don’t crest and then recede quickly. How does that work itself out?

Mike Welvaert:

The smaller tributary rivers, they only have a smaller geographic area that contributes to water going up and down in a river. So smaller tributaries, they go up and they go down anywhere from six-eight hours to maybe perhaps a day or two. But the larger rivers main stem rivers, like the Mississippi or the Wisconsin, they’re draining a very, very large geographic area. All the water from all of those smaller tributaries, as it moves its way into the large river, all that water has to progress and work its way downstream so it takes a while for that. And that’s why we’re looking at the Mississippi to staying active for quite some time. That water is draining all the way from northern Minnesota and western Minnesota. So there’s a lot of water coming, and actually, northern Wisconsin as well, coming down the St. Croix. All of those are big contributors this year.

Frederica Freyberg:

Mike Welvaert from the National Weather Service, thanks very much.

Mike Welvaert:

My pleasure.