Here & Now

McCoshen & Ross on Wisconsin's 2022 Midterm Election Winners

Frederica Freyberg:

So the red tsunami did not materialize. Tony Evers won and so did Ron Johnson. How do partisans feel about these results? We turn to our political panelists, Republican Bill McCoshen, a consultant for Tim Michels, and Democrat Scot Ross. Thanks to both of you for being here.

Bill McCoshen:

Thanks for having us.

Scot Ross:

Thank you.

Frederica Freyberg:

I want to go to you first Scot. What’s your reaction to the results Tuesday night?

Scot Ross:

I mean I think Tony Evers’ mandate now means we are going to move Wisconsin forward. Democracy was on the ballot. Abortion was on the ballot. Freedom was on the ballot, and the people responded and they said they wanted the democratic way. They wanted Tony Evers in there to make sure those freedoms are protected. We are going to have free and fair elections from now on. Let’s just see if the Republicans can join us in this mandate and move the state forward.

Frederica Freyberg:

Bill, what was your reaction?

Bill McCoshen:

It was a little like a youth soccer tournament, everybody got a trophy. Republicans won the U.S. Senate race. They won the state treasurer’s race. They won the 3rd Congressional District, and they picked up seats in both the Assembly and the Senate. There are big wins on the Republican side on Tuesday night as well. Granted, there were some significant Democratic wins. Losing the governorship and AGs race in this political climate is a massive, missed opportunity for Republicans. There’s no doubt about that.

Frederica Freyberg:

You spoke, Bill, to some lessons learned after the defeat of your candidate Tim Michels. Like what?

Bill McCoshen:

Well, I think, number one, is money, right? You need money, organization, and message to win statewide. Tim got massively outspent. At the end of the day, money matters. You can’t get outspent by $12 million to $20 million and hope to compete in the state of Wisconsin. I think that was one thing. On the ground, I’m going to give Democrats credit. They actually had a very strategic ground, microtargeting effort on campuses across the state, which, frankly, made the 3rd Congressional District closer than most people thought it would be and they targeted young people on abortion. Gen-Z is the only demographic that actually voted for Democrats in overwhelming numbers on Tuesday night. Everyone else voted for Republicans. So I credit the Democrats for understanding where Gen-Z was and how to identify them and get them out.

Frederica Freyberg:

You also spoke to the idea of Dane County as the powerhouse, which, perhaps, that campaign, the Tim Michels’ campaign, did not pay enough attention to.

Bill McCoshen:

I’m a broken record on this. I’ve been saying this 20 years. When Mark Neumann lost in 1998 by 90,000 votes, the alarm bells should have been going off for every Republican. They weren’t. Tony Evers beat Tim Michels by 173,000 votes in Dane County on Tuesday night. That’s almost insurmountable. I mean Ron Johnson was able to overcome it in large measure because he defined Mandela Barnes on the terms he wanted him defined on. We’ll come back to that, but Dane County has to be a higher priority for Republicans if they ever want to win the governorship again.

Frederica Freyberg:

Scot, what was your takeaway after the close loss for Mandela Barnes?

Scot Ross:

A couple things. One. The reason Dane County votes for Democrats is because Dane County — the Democrats reflect those values, and Republicans are going to have to change their stripes if they want to start to make inroads in Dane County. Let’s start there. It was very disappointing. You know, Mandela Barnes campaign was historic for Wisconsin, and it is unfortunate what happened, which, you know, you talked about the money. Mandela Barnes was outspent by $29 million. I don’t think we can, you know, I don’t think we can understate the significance of Diane Hendricks and the Uihleins. They literally got $500 million from Ron Johnson in a personal tax break he extorted publicly for them and then went on to basically finance half of the effort, you know, against Mandela Barnes for Ron Johnson. I think that’s just — it’s shocking.

Frederica Freyberg:

In Milwaukee County, turnout was down from 2018. What’s that about?

Scot Ross:

I mean, I think, you know, you have to make sure you get your voters out to the polls. I think Milwaukee does a very good job of it. You know, sometimes you come up short though, and I think, you know, depending on the breeze, you know, this was the closest Senate race I can remember or —

Bill McCoshen:

First time in history both statewide races were within 3%. First time in history.

Scot Ross:

And we have to go back to 1998 for a U.S. Senate race that was that close. And so, I think, you know, if the breeze blows a little bit different on Election Day, Mandela Barnes is our U.S. Senator-elect.

Bill McCoshen:

The three of us are old enough to remember when Wisconsin used to split their ticket. They did it in the ’90s a lot. In ’98, Tommy won again Ed Garvey for governor with 60% and Russ Feingold beat Mark Neumann.

Scot Ross:

Only by 37,000 votes.

Bill McCoshen:

Right.

Scot Ross:

This is how close.

Bill McCoshen:

But that was the last time, 24 years ago that we split our ticket at the top.

Frederica Freyberg:

Bill, you talked about Republicans having to find a different kind of candidate to appeal to suburban voters. Is the allure of Donald Trump over?

Bill McCoshen:

I think it’s over. I mean, I think the party’s ready to look forward, not backwards. And, you know, I’m hopeful president Trump does not announce for the White House next week because I think that disrupts what’s going on in the state of Georgia. I think Georgia should be Republican’s sole focus for next 30 days, and anything that gets in the way of that should be shunned by Republican voters. I think you see on his recent attack on Ron DeSantis this week that Republicans are pushing back in a big way. I — Donald Trump may, in fact, get in this race, but it’s not a given he’s going to be the nominee.

Frederica Freyberg:

Scot, I want to ask you how Democrats reclaim the support of rural voters in Wisconsin?

Scot Ross:

I think they had it. If you look at Tony Evers for instance in La Crosse and Eau Claire, he went up four points in both La Crosse and Eau Claire. He carried a lot of the counties, you know, that he carried last time. I don’t think the Democrats have a rural problem. I think Republicans have a suburban Milwaukee problem. The WOW counties, the dark red WOW counties are moving towards Democrats, and, you know, that’s where we are at.

Frederica Freyberg:

I just want to spin now to the next big race in Wisconsin which is the state Supreme Court race. What are the stakes, Bill?

Bill McCoshen:

Huge. I mean it’s a 4-3 conservative majority. Brian Hagedorn sort of swings back and forth between the two blocks of three, so it’s not decidedly conservative. This is a conservative seat that’s up. I think the stakes are very, very high. There’s at least one conservative candidate in already, former Supreme Court justice Dan Kelly. I’m fairly confident there will be another, possibly Judge Jennifer Dorow, before the end of November.

Frederica Freyberg:

Scot?

Scot Ross:

Couple things – one, Brian Hagedorn’s done with his swing dance party, like, it’s over. He’s with the Republicans from here on now.

Bill McCoshen:

I wish I could believe that.

Scot Ross:

The second thing is progressives have an incredible opportunity. Ever since Mike Gableman won in 2008, the Supreme Court’s been controlled by the Republicans. You know, Democrats have a fantastic opportunity. I think they are going to seize on it. I don’t think any other Republicans are getting in. I can’t remember when two Republicans were in a Supreme Court race.

Frederica Freyberg:

We leave it there. Scot Ross, Bill McCoshen, thanks very much.

Scot Ross, Bill McCoshen:

Thank you.