Here & Now

McCoshen & Ross on 2024 Presidential Politics, Conventions

Zac Schultz:
In state news, the Wisconsin Supreme Court announced they have temporarily suspended a lawyer for Donald Trump’s campaign from his spot on the Judicial Conduct Advisory Committee. Jim Troupis was a lawyer for the Trump campaign in 2020 and was a key figure in the conspiracy to get fake electors to claim Wisconsin’s electoral votes for Trump. Troupis and two others were recently charged by Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul for forgery in their roles in the plot. Troupis was reappointed to the Judicial Committee in 2023 by the Wisconsin Supreme Court when it was still controlled by conservatives.

Liberals took a 4-3 majority last year with the election of Janet Protasiewicz. However, control of the court in the future will be determined by an election next April for the seat of retiring liberal Justice Ann Walsh Bradley. This week, Dane County Judge Susan Crawford announced she is officially running for the court and was immediately endorsed by liberals on the court. Crawford joins former Republican attorney general and current Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel, who previously announced he was in the race.

Sticking with election news, the Wisconsin Elections Commission chose attorney Ann Jacobs as its chairperson this week. Jacobs, a Democrat, last held this role back during the presidential election of 2020. The vote to elect her as chair was unanimous.

And in Milwaukee, the Milwaukee Common Council approved Paulina Gutierrez to lead the city’s election commission.

Speaking of Milwaukee, we are just one month away from the city hosting the Republican National Convention and here to discuss all of the election optics, our political analysts Scot Ross and Bill McCoshen. Thank you, gentlemen, for your time today.

Bill McCoshen:
Thanks for having us.

Scot Ross:
Great to be here.

Zac Schultz:
So let’s start with the biggest X factor in this election, Donald Trump. Bill, yesterday it’s reported he told the House GOP conference that Milwaukee was “a horrible city.” Since then, we’ve seen 100 different explanations of what he meant. Does it even matter at this point if he says something like that?

Bill McCoshen:
Well, first of Bill McCoshen all, I want to say I love Milwaukee. I can’t wait to show it off to 50,000 Republicans from around the country. There’s a lot to do in Milwaukee. Great restaurants, great festivals, the Bucks, the Brewers. I mean, it’s a great city. They’ve got some challenges. Sure. People who are in the conference yesterday said that isn’t exactly what he said. The president himself has said he was talking about crime and election integrity. You know, my advice to the Trump campaign would be be very precise in your language from this point forward. He’s never going to get the benefit of the doubt. We know that sometimes his words are taken out of context. The congressmen who were in there from Wisconsin all said that isn’t what he said. So I’ll take him at his word that he did not say that. But I think he’s going to love Milwaukee when he gets here.

Zac Schultz:
Scot, Republicans have been bashing Milwaukee forever. So is this really out of context for them to say it’s a horrible city?

Scot Ross:
Absolutely not. And you know, again, we saw yesterday the chaos that results from Donald Trump owning the Republican Party. And you saw, I think, seven different stories from the six Republican members of Congress as to why they all, you know, why they all think Milwaukee is a horrible city. And I think it’s just going to play terribly. I think it’s, you know, again, I think it’s a sign of what’s going to happen because as we get closer to the election, Donald Trump’s tour of, you know, revenge, retribution, and doing whatever he can to stay out of prison is going to involve more of these incidents, I think. And Republicans then having to scramble to answer.

Bill McCoshen:
Let’s not forget he’s going to be in Racine on Tuesday of next week. So he’ll have an opportunity to answer this directly. And my hope is that he comes to Wisconsin and tells all voters what he loves about this state and why he wants to win here.

Zac Schultz:
So you said the magic word prison. July 11th is the date in which he is set to be sentenced in New York for criminal convictions. Do you think he’s accepting the nomination from Wisconsin, or is he in a jail cell, home confinement? What’s your prediction?

Scot Ross:
Well, I’m not in charge of the prosecution, so I can’t tell you where he’ll be for it. But I can tell you this. You know, being sentenced for 34 felonies related to a hush money that you were paying, you know, for an affair, you know, while your third wife was having your fifth kid, I don’t think is a message that Trump wants to, wants to go forward with. The problem is, is that when he tries to distract from it, he does things like horrible city. You know, it just keeps getting worse. And we’re not even talking about the issues: abortion, health care, infrastructure, all those sorts of things which the Republicans are on the wrong side of.

Zac Schultz:
Does it matter if Trump’s here?

Bill McCoshen:
Oh yeah, I think it does. I mean, the way he does conventions, he’s on the stage every night. That’s very unusual in our lifetime to see that. It’s usually the final night where the nominee gives the big speech. I expect him to be here. I expect him to be on the stage in some shape or fashion every single night. And again, I’m looking forward to showcasing Milwaukee. I think he’s going to find it to be an unbelievably cool city with a lot of opportunity to grow.

Zac Schultz:
So I want to switch to Wisconsin elections. We’re going to have new maps this fall. Democrats are contesting every possible race that they can get out there. Are we going to see something like 2016 where Ron Johnson ran ahead of Trump where — are there going to be distance between the Assembly and the Senate Republicans down ballot versus Trump up ballot, or how do they affect each other?

Bill McCoshen:
Yeah, it probably will be. My guess is Tammy Baldwin will run ahead of Joe Biden here in the state of Wisconsin. Ron Johnson did that with Donald Trump in 2016. It’s not unusual for the candidate to — who’s more relatable here locally to do better. How that plays down ballot, what we knew from 2016 and 2020 was Republican candidates for the Legislature did better than the top of the ticket across the state. I expect that to continue. We do have new boundaries this time around. All the races will be more competitive. My guess is Democrats will pick up seats in both Houses of the Legislature. I don’t think they’re going to have an opportunity to get a majority, because the top of the ticket is too close. That’s where things do come into play as it relates to the top of the ticket. If Biden were to run away with Wisconsin, could Democrats get one House? Probably. He’s not going to run away with Wisconsin.

Zac Schultz:
Does Biden need Democrats down ballot to help him win statewide?

Scot Ross:
I think it’s all a sort of bouillabaisse together to what brings victory to Joe Biden and to Tammy Baldwin. And I think Bill was right. You know, we are going to pick up seats. Democrats are going to pick up seats in the Senate and the Assembly, but what I think is going to happen is you have a, you have a guy at the top of the ticket, Donald Trump, who has to win Wisconsin to win the presidency.

Bill McCoshen:
Maybe.

Scot Ross:
And I think he has put himself out of running for winning Wisconsin Democrats have resources. The Democratic Party is all over the place. I think they’ve got 46 coordinated campaign offices. They’ve hired more than 100 people. They’ve outraised the Republicans 15 to 1, in terms of fundraising. And, you know, over and over and over again, Democrats are right on the issues. I think it’s important that Democrats are going to have competitive races in a lot of these areas. So it will drive out more turnout. Whether or not that affects the top of the ticket, I don’t know, because the money is going to be spent at the top of the ticket to reinforce those messages again about abortion and health care and infrastructure.

Bill McCoshen:
I agree with Scot. The Democrats will have a significant cash advantage from top to bottom and money is a factor. There’s no question about that. Organizationally I think we’ll be about even and on the message, I think it’s an advantage for Republicans this cycle.

Zac Schultz:
All right. A few seconds for each of you. What are you watching the next four weeks in the run up to Milwaukee?

Bill McCoshen:
I’m watching the most viewed presidential debate in history a week from now or two weeks from now between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. The first presidential debate in history before national nominating conventions. So I want to see how that plays out and does it impact the race because we know all the court cases to date have not shook the numbers.

Zac Schultz:
What about you?

Scot Ross:
I’m going to be watching the issues, be watching the way Democrats articulate the difference between what the Republicans offer and what they offer. And I think again, on those, Democrats win.

Zac Schultz:
Do you think there will be a debate?

Scot Ross:
I don’t. I actually think Trump is going to bail.

Bill McCoshen:
Wow.

Scot Ross:
I think Trump’s going to bail on it.

Zac Schultz:
Do you think there will be a debate? We’re going to be watching one?

Bill McCoshen:
Oh, he’ll be there. Yeah, he’ll be there.

Zac Schultz:
Will there be a second debate?

Bill McCoshen:
No.

Zac Schultz:
All right. Well, thank you both. We will see you soon and thank you for coming today.