Here & Now

PBS Wisconsin Original production.

One month out from Election Day and volunteers across the political and demographic spectrum are pounding the pavement to get out the vote.

I'm Frederica Freyberg.

Tonight I'm "Here& Now" pollster Charles Franklin is here with where statewide candidates stand.

Donald Trump makes his mark on the midterms.

For better or worse, Gen Z voters say they won't be ignored in November.

And private school vouchers could see a boost.

October 2nd.

Funding for Here and now is provided by the Focus Fund for Journalism and Friends of PBS Wisconsin.

The latest Marquette Law School poll has candidates for governor.

Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany.

Neck and neck.

Now, about a month out from the November 3rd election, we check in with poll Director Charles Franklin.

Thanks very much for being here.

Good to be here.

So let's get right to the numbers.

Among likely voters or poll shows, 49% support for David Crowley and 46% favoring Tom Tiffany for registered voters, it's 46 and 45%.

Another result shows Donald Trump with his lowest approval ratings in your polling down to 38% approval, with 60% disapproval.

So tying these things together, Charles, why is it that Donald Trump's numbers haven't more significantly pulled down?

Tom.

Tiffany.

Yeah, if this was just a referendum on the president, then Crowley would be leading by 22 points.

It's obviously not anything like that.

And that just drives home the fact that an actual election between a particular pair of candidates is different from your general opinion about the president or the state of the economy or the nation.

What we're seeing is partisans aligning very strongly behind their party's candidates.

And that's now equally true of Republicans and Democrats and independents leaning towards Crowley, but with an awful lot undecided.

So our friends over at Inside Wisconsin Politics talked about the changing favorability among the candidates for governor, and they talked about how Tiffany's had dropped.

But Crowley is much more so.

What is that?

Yeah.

Tiffany's down only slightly from August, but Crowley has really shifted a lot.

And this was something we mentioned back in August that a lot of people didn't know enough about David Crowley to say if they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion, that surely had something to do with the way he won the primary at the last minute.

He's more unknown than typical nominees would be, and that left a vacuum for the campaigns to fill.

I think the Tiffany campaign, through both greater resources and strategic decisions, have put a lot of negative advertising out.

That has really hurt Crowley's image.

He went from slightly net positive on favorability to now 13 points more negative than positive, and that change came heavily among Republicans, which is one good thing for the Crowley campaign, because those folks probably weren't voting for him anyway.

But is unfavorable.

Numbers also went up with independents quite a bit, and that does matter more.

Democrats barely changed over the month.

What about those independents?

How important is that?

Pretty important.

If you look at likely voters in this sample, we have 45% Republican and 45% Democratic.

Neither party alone reaches 50%.

That only leaves about 10% who are purely independent, but they obviously are critical for making up that gap between getting 45% from your own party.

You still need some more to win, and independents are slower to make up their minds.

They pay less attention to elections until late in the season, and they are the one group that still can reasonably swing.

You were suggesting also that the independents favoring Tom Tiffany is really low.

It's surprisingly weak.

I think part of that is, first of all, just on the vote, Tiffany is only getting 18% among independents.

We would be really surprised to see either candidate get less than 40% within independents.

So that number may change over time, but it reflects how unbelievably negative independents feel towards President Trump and towards the national economy, where we're seeing upwards of 80% of independents disapproving of the president.

And that has been a big burden on Republicans up and down the ballot.

And here in the state and nationwide for much of the year.

But it seems to be even worse right now in October.

So what kind of headwinds does David Crowley face with the huge amount of money that Tom Tiffany has?

Well, he's almost certainly going to be outspent.

The.

I think the question is, does the Crowley campaign have enough money to wage a intense media battle over this last month of the campaign?

When Tiffany has had the advantage in late August and through September.

We know on.

On the flip side, that the powerhouse voting blocks in Madison and Milwaukee County could help Crowley will help Crowley.

But what about Outstate?

How is that tipping?

Outstate.

We're seeing Tiffany with a substantial lead in the green Bay media market that includes the cities in the Fox Valley, but it also includes a lot of countryside that's very Republican there.

Tiffany is also leading in the north and west of the state, which includes his congressional district, but also other areas comes down to a lot of the counties around Milwaukee, where it's pretty evenly divided, with Tiffany at about 50 and Crowley around 46.

That's an area that used to give Republicans 65 or even 70% of the vote.

But in recent elections, that's gotten narrower and narrower.

Four years ago, Tim Michaels only got 59% in Waukesha County, a place that Scott Walker used to get well over 65% of the vote.

So we can probably expect your next poll to show similar close results.

Well, you know, even in our big blowout gubernatorial election, Scott Walker won by just over five.

Four years ago, Governor Evers, as an incumbent, won by three and a half.

So if you just go with history, I think you'd expect a close race.

All right.

Charles Franklin, thanks very much.

Thank you.

As to Donald Trump's record low approval ratings, his grip may even be slipping with his strongest base.

Voters in rural areas.

Steven Potter has this report on Trump's political power in rural Wisconsin.

And if his influence helps or hurts Republicans on the ballot.

So on Election Day, November 3rd, you got to do me a favor.

You got to get out and vote, and you're going to pretend I'm on the ballot.

Because in a way, I am on the ballot.

There's no denying Donald Trump's political power and his desire to snatch the spotlight, even though he's not on the ballot in November.

Pretend I'm on the ticket because this is going to turn out to be one of the most important elections.

It's a midterm.

And his reasoning to do so, he says, is to motivate voters to choose Republican candidates so his party can maintain majority control of Congress.

But the president's popularity is declining even in rural areas.

The cost of diesel fuel is breaking records.

Tariffs and trade wars are hurting crop sales and war overseas adds to financial uncertainty.

The great debate is will Donald Trump help Republican candidates or hurt them?

Joe Handrick is a Republican political analyst and former Republican state lawmaker.

He thinks Trump can help push people to the polls, especially in midterm elections, which are known for lower voter turnout.

I think Donald Trump is needed to help bring out those nontraditional voters that that like him, but who otherwise may stay at home this November.

Up until recently, Republicans always benefited from a lower turnout.

But in the last few years, that has really switched.

Democratic voters are now more highly motivated to vote their more regular voters.

The areas of the state that have become more Republican contain more voters who are occasional voters.

And the state's more rural areas are decidedly Republican.

In the Trump era.

Western and northern Wisconsin, particularly rural communities, have gotten very, very red.

Rural Wisconsin voters are vital to the Republican election strategy, serving as a counterweight to the state's deep blue urban centers.

And because Wisconsin is one of the nation's most closely divided swing states, higher voter turnout in rural areas can be the deciding factor in regional and statewide elections.

Sauk County is very purple.

I mean, it's pretty much 5050 across the board.

Our voters here have been very predictive of how elections have turned out.

There's one spot in rural Wisconsin that might be the best place to measure Donald Trump's political influence.

Except for one race, Sauk County has voted for the statewide winner in elections for president, U.S.

Senate and governor since the year 2000.

For president, that means that Sauk County voted for Donald Trump in 2016, Joe Biden in 2020, and then again picked Trump in 2024.

Donald Trump was such a driving force in that election.

That's why he won.

Jerry Helmer is chair of the Republican Party of Sauk County.

He says that Trump's double victory here is why the Republican president could and should help push Republican candidates across the finish line in November.

But he also remembers past elections.

Trump just drew the young people out in in droves.

And something that I saw happen in Sauk County actually was a lot of the younger people and people that were new to voting, they only voted for Donald Trump.

They didn't vote down ballot.

And that made a huge difference because we lost down ballot in that election when we shouldn't have.

Everybody I talked to, when we have meetings, membership meetings, the comments are always, always coming back to the current administration.

Judith Willink Grose is the chair of the Sauk County Democratic Party.

She says Trump is also a hot topic for Democrats, and they're using his unpopularity to rally and reach voters in their base.

When candidates are out there.

You know that the whole thing about Trump is in the back of their mind.

And when you go door to door, it always comes up.

But he still may pull in more Republican voters than he pushes away.

He talks to people like most people talk.

That's what attracted me to him initially was, you know, this guy talks like I do.

He doesn't hold his tongue.

He says what he thinks.

He's a bit of an arrogant at times, but that's who he is.

Look at what he's done with a golf America and how a Lake America.

You know, those types of things.

And maybe that's something to be proud of.

If you're a patriot and you care about this country.

But gross says Trump's influence is diminished.

His political power in rural Wisconsin, particularly with farmers, is not as strong as it was the actions of President Trump are helping the Democrats because we offer a very stark contrast to what he has offered and what he has carried through on.

We have a president that is been very clear about making the midterm election about him.

UW green Bay political science professor David Helpap is keenly watching the state's rural voters.

While it varies in severity from pole to pole, Donald Trump is losing ground with rural Americans.

Reuters Ipsos poll found only 31% of rural residents approved of the president's handling of the economy.

And a Fox News poll found Trump's rural approval rating dropped to a record low of 44%.

Helpap says many of the issues important to rural voters are also important to urban and suburban voters.

Rising costs, affordability issues, concerns about data centers and concerns about foreign affairs, and what that's doing to domestic issues.

But he adds that some things hit harder in communities where agriculture is the primary source of income.

Those issues are also sort of outsized in rural communities, particularly related to the costs for food, for diesel, fuel, for fertilizer, because these have a big impact on rural communities.

Over the last decade, the urban rural divide has deepened significantly.

And in 2024, Donald Trump won Wisconsin's rural areas by more than 20%, showcasing just how deeply anchored the GOP is to these communities.

Over the last several election cycles, when President Trump hasn't been on the ballot, turnout has been lower, particularly for typically Republican voters.

Helpap says enthusiasm for better or worse, could affect turnout.

Maybe you don't go and vote for a Democrat, but maybe you just stay home.

Still, both Democrats and Republicans are using Trump to help them push people to the polls.

I don't know if I'll use the phrase blue wave.

I mean, that's very colorful and kind of exciting, but.

The Democratic candidates are doing well.

Republicans tend to be lazy when it comes to the midterms and turning out to vote.

That's why we keep getting beat.

But I don't think it's going to be true this time.

County.

I'm Steven Potter for Here and Now.

Later in the program, a closer look at the youth vote.

But first the caps are off.

That is enrollment caps for Wisconsin school choice programs.

They were lifted this school year for the state funded voucher programs, allowing children to attend private schools across the state.

Last year, Wisconsin spent more than $700 million funding school choice with about 60,000 students participating.

School districts are allowed to levy additional property taxes to offset the private school payments.

Earlier this year, Governor Tony Evers vetoed a bill that would have opted Wisconsin in to a new federal school voucher program.

But what are the implications for the growth of school choice in Wisconsin?

With no enrollment caps?

We turn to Jason Stein at the Wisconsin Policy Forum.

And Jason, nice to see you.

My pleasure.

Thanks for having me.

So as we just said, Wisconsin won't be taking part in that federal voucher program.

But as you know, Wisconsin was an early adopter into school choice in the 1990s with expansion statewide more recently.

But what are the implications of having no caps?

Should we expect school choice programs to kind of explode?

I think what you can think about is the short term implications are modest, but the long term implications could be very big.

So in 2015, we sort of switched the cap for the statewide program in our in the budget that year.

And we added 1% of students a year.

And so last year it was at 10% was the cap.

This year that comes off.

Now, of the 421 districts statewide, only three districts Manitowoc, Watertown and West Allis, West Milwaukee are were at that 10% cap in the most recent data.

Of those, maybe West Allis, West Milwaukee, because it's close to Milwaukee and all those choice schools in Milwaukee could probably have the most impact.

But long term, it could affect many other districts that aren't yet at the cap.

So there is one private choice school in Milwaukee that took in $50 million last year in voucher payments, having expanded to online learning.

Is that a way to kind of expand capacity for schools that might want to take part, but just don't have the seats?

It's certainly the virtual schooling is a wild card because that really obviously doesn't answer to geography.

Now, you know, most choice schools, just like most public schools, are going to have to draw from a fairly limited geographic area around them, right?

It may also be the case that for most schools, virtual learning may also be somewhat capped in the sense that it didn't perhaps gain the best reputation during the pandemic.

But at the same time, there's certainly going to be schools that are going to grow and grow significantly in the next few years because of this change.

You know, in many other districts, rural districts, other places, the schooling may not look that much different.

So it's really going to be a case by case and community by community, I think.

Now we know that districts can offset the loss of funds by raising property taxes.

But what is the breaking point there?

Well, it's one more factor that adds into recent school property tax increases, which have been pretty large.

Back in December, they were the most since the school levy increase for all public schools was the most.

Since the early 1990s.

And I think that got some people's attention when they opened their property tax bills last December.

They're probably going to be pretty big increase, not just because of vouchers, but because of other factors as well.

Come this December.

So we'll see.

I mean, the next legislature could look different from this one.

And they might look at a host of these ideas and issues differently.

You know, that will be a big determinant too, I think.

So there are income limits to take part in the school choice program, a family income of, I think $71,000.

But some critics of the program say many of these students were already attending, say, parochial schools, and now they just get those kind of voucher funds.

Does that matter at all?

Well, that's another factor to think about when we think about the cap coming off for the statewide school Choice program.

It is a 220% of the federal poverty level for a family, which, you know, if it's a family of 4 or 5, can be, you know, what we might think of as a middle class income or low middle class income, so that is another factor that would limit the the media impact, as you say.

We don't have great data on this, but I think many of the people who took initially advantage of the school choice program were families that already had their kids in a private school, and that that school joined the school choice program because not all private schools do.

And then they qualified on income.

So there's those other factors that you have to think about as well.

So how could the Wisconsin school choice program change or even expand depending on the results of the November elections?

Well, you know, right now we've had a Republican legislature since January 2011.

That's could change.

I mean, we'll see, right?

Or at least in one house or two houses, that would really change how lawmakers and the body as a whole looked at school choice.

But, you know, that's really why elections matter.

And we have to watch these things.

All right.

Jason Stein, thanks very much.

Thank you.

In younger voters born between 1997 and 2012, the Gen Z bloc has proven more persuadable in their vote than previous generations.

President Joe Biden won the youth vote by 25 points in 2020, but in 2024, Gen Z shifted right toward Donald Trump, who regained most of them.

Tonight, student journalist Elijah Pines takes a look at the youth vote and where it might fall in the 2026 midterms.

I personally like, like, wow.

Like, yes, like there are more issues they really care about that though.

You have to be 18 to vote.

That doesn't mean young people aren't Sydney Stinson entered the political arena as a child, canvasing with her family for President Obama's 2012 campaign.

I was like six, so I don't really remember.

I remember being extremely cold, but also I remember the importance of it and how, you know, we were doing that.

And then he ended up getting elected.

And in my mind as a kid, I was like, I did that.

You know, I was the one who allowed him to be there.

Now, as an adult, Stinson is the vice chair of UW Milwaukee's College Democrats chapter.

Their goal is to make politics a habit for their peers by tabling or hosting events like a cookout, or when they put on a forum of candidates running in Assembly District 19.

For campaigns looking to win the youth vote, they have to dance with the 20 somethings before they get him into the ballot box.

Take, for example, Turning Point USA, a conservative advocacy group that has become a staple on college campuses.

Their tables are staffed with student.

Advocates looking to debate or discuss the issues with whoever comes up to them.

The first thing that I always think of when I'm tabling or with I'm talking to individuals from the right or the left, is I understand where they're coming from.

I try to understand their story and where their values come into play, because values are such an important part of where we believe things and where we fall on the aisle.

For years, it was assumed that young people rarely vote and would vote for Democrats.

But in the past few elections in Wisconsin, Gen Z turned out in high numbers.

Even in off cycle elections like in 2025 and in 2023, and in 2024, President Trump gained support on many Wisconsin campuses.

As to how these changes happen, political science professor Anthony Chergosky thinks Turning Point USA and its founder, Charlie Kirk, are a good example.

I think one thing that set Charlie Kirk apart from a lot of people on the right is he treated the Gen Z vote as up for grabs, and he treated the Gen Z vote as highly persuadable.

Kirk, like his organization, traveled to college campuses and debated students wanting to challenge his conservative beliefs.

He was publicly assassinated at Utah Valley University last year.

Before him, I was.

I always thought politics as a debate, debate, debate, a right and a wrong.

And there must be some debate in the middle.

Now, I've come to believe there's discussion, there's discussion to find a truth.

In the wake of losing young voters in 2024, Democrats are eager to reinvigorate Gen Z to liberal causes.

I think that's really been the issue is getting people, you know, interested in, well, why would I vote if I feel like nothing changes?

Well, we want to show you what could change.

Young voters aren't just divided by party, but also on gender.

In 2024, Gen Z men shifted right more than Gen Z women.

One contributing factor sticks out the overturning of the right to abortion in 2022.

The Dobbs ruling might have had a particular impact on younger female voters, because they're coming of age at a time when there is significant turmoil on the issue of abortion.

Meeting Gen Z where they are at also means meeting them online.

Charlie Kirk success came from viral clips.

The manosphere is an online circle of male content creators who focus on masculine issues with creators like Theo Von or Joe Rogan.

It's often cited for Gen Z men shifting right in 24, while Democrats have searched for the Joe Rogan of the left, Cherkovski says that's the wrong direction for them to look.

People aren't watching Joe Rogan or listening to Joe Rogan or listening to Theo Von because they crave political content.

I think the young men who are drawn to those programs are looking for entertainment.

They're looking for self-improvement content.

They're looking for comedy, and politics finds them there rather than them seeking out politics.

Unlike 2022, abortion is not a primary issue on the ballot this cycle.

What's top of mind for young people is more universal.

I think a really big one is the economical problem.

Paying for gas that's over $4 or paying for groceries like basic necessities that aren't as cheap as they used to be.

And to pay off that student debt that a lot of people are running into hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt that they're paying off throughout the rest of their lives.

remain divided on how to address issues, they do want politicians to know one thing Gen Z wants in.

Yes.

Okay.

Awesome.

Thank you.

Being far right and being far left is okay, but it's not going to get us anywhere.

In the end of the day.

I hope one day we can come together and form the country that we desire.

We're here for you just as much as you're here for us.

You know, as much as we want to help you get somewhere, you also need to help us.

Hello.

Are you planning on voting?

In the fall?

Reporting from Madison.

I'm Elijah Pines for "Here& Now".

For more on this and other issues facing Wisconsin, visit our website at PBS Wisconsin Education.

And then click on the news tab.

That's our program for tonight.

I'm Frederica Freyberg.

Have a good weekend.

Funding for "Here& Now" is provided by the fund for journalism and Friends of PBS Wisconsin.